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Too much prospect defense

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Old
12-25-2012, 02:01 PM
  #51
Bryanbryoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 View Post
Its possible to express your thoughts in an intelligent and eloquent way. Hurdler, you are right. But i think that kind of dichotomy ignores the possibility that there are many fans who watch junior games and are able to contribute a little to our knowledge of prospects.

I think this forum would be a lot better if people didnt feel the need to express their opinions about prospects they have never seen
Bingo. You find so many people that just spout off based on stats with either no viewings of a player or very damn few. Personally I try not to critique players that I don't have a pretty good idea about.

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Old
12-25-2012, 03:01 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by RedWings19405 View Post
Prospects are unfinished products. Really you like to take the good and think they will evolve other elements of their game. It is not that hard to do and there are several guys in the league that never had big ceilings attached to them and have done so with improvement. I watch every Griffins AHL game either live or tape delayed for several years and a lot of others both in person and around the net especially this year, most of the big Wings European guys and attempt when possible to hit up the CHL games, they are a little harder to get at. But you want to see these guys be successful and at the end of the day you probably have seen more of them than the person that is bashing them. That or they don't know what the organization is saying about the prospects development either.

The organizational factor is a big one. The OP might not like how some people way overhype guys, but what do you do when Hakan Andersson and Jim Nill do it? You know two guys that have great hockey minds and a big track record. That is where a lot of this best case scenario comes from, the teams themselves when they are asked who the player reminds them of. Guess what you then watch the player and see a lot of the gifts from the comparison.

Also to a larger point I still don't understand why some guys fail in the NHL. You can watch them every night and every shift and think he is a pretty darn good player and they still wash out. It is an inexact science, I still believe sometimes organizations themselves or coaching staffs tank these guys careers.

It is perfectly acceptable to be high on these guys before they get to the league, as long as you understand a lot of them won't turn into the ceiling you are hoping for. But at the same time when people bash them I understand people saying they still have that potential because in a lot of cases they do. It is worth notiing when you're watching them, sometimes they are working on very exact things. This happens a lot with the Wings because of their long development arcs, certain guys are being asked to focus on certain things, so just cruising the stat sheet does a disservice to that. When your organization or other teams scouts are saying great things that is more important than stat sheets.
I would trust what scouts have to say more than stats. But news flash, their job isnt to keep fans informed, no matter what praise your scout gives a prospect he will most likely not make the nhl

Im sure you know this but the job of any given team member is to lie a little to the fans. I think a problem is that people view this as a place for fans to get excited about prospects. We have team forums for that drivel. Think of the prospects forum as the history of hockey forum but for prospects rather than old players.

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12-25-2012, 06:33 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Bingo. You find so many people that just spout off based on stats with either no viewings of a player or very damn few. Personally I try not to critique players that I don't have a pretty good idea about.
I understand why people fall back to the stat argument though. For instance pretty much all off-season I had a very different view on Schultz. I thought he was a good player but the superstar being hyped not so much. The reason is I have seen him quite a bit at Wisconsin and I have also seen a lot of the other big guys he is being lumped in with polls.

I remember on a lot of occasions thinking Jake McCabe as a Freshman was their best defenseman on given nights. I didn't think Schultz would explode the way he has and the couple times I have seen Oklahoma City he looks a little better in the areas I thought would trouble him. I still question what he will do against the elite level guys he is going to see at the NHL, especially if he gets the #1 d-man role. When you can take his time and space away he has some trouble. That doesn't happen with the same frequency in the AHL that it will in the NHL. Generally he struggled a little more against the elite teams in the NCAA. Now he seems to have taken a step forward and certainly the stats are hard to argue against.

But this is why a lot of people don't venture out on that limb. I know I feel pretty silly still trying to argue some of the points I don't like about his game because of his numbers. But this is not to be confused with not having seen him, which would be the first thing said if I argue I don't think he has the same ceiling that a lot of other people think. I could be very wrong, but that would be based on having seen him more than 50 times something a lot of the people I would be arguing with have not done.

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Old
12-25-2012, 08:49 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by RedWings19405 View Post
I understand why people fall back to the stat argument though. For instance pretty much all off-season I had a very different view on Schultz. I thought he was a good player but the superstar being hyped not so much. The reason is I have seen him quite a bit at Wisconsin and I have also seen a lot of the other big guys he is being lumped in with polls.

I remember on a lot of occasions thinking Jake McCabe as a Freshman was their best defenseman on given nights. I didn't think Schultz would explode the way he has and the couple times I have seen Oklahoma City he looks a little better in the areas I thought would trouble him. I still question what he will do against the elite level guys he is going to see at the NHL, especially if he gets the #1 d-man role. When you can take his time and space away he has some trouble. That doesn't happen with the same frequency in the AHL that it will in the NHL. Generally he struggled a little more against the elite teams in the NCAA. Now he seems to have taken a step forward and certainly the stats are hard to argue against.

But this is why a lot of people don't venture out on that limb. I know I feel pretty silly still trying to argue some of the points I don't like about his game because of his numbers. But this is not to be confused with not having seen him, which would be the first thing said if I argue I don't think he has the same ceiling that a lot of other people think. I could be very wrong, but that would be based on having seen him more than 50 times something a lot of the people I would be arguing with have not done.
I just have to agree with you and expand on the fact that people who legitimize statistics over actual walking are legitimately clueless. Its absolutely terrible methodology. There is Zero reason to believe that stats are a credible source of info unless there is rigorous methodology proof and discussion. And dont complain about being too lazy to do this because there is a whole community of people who do this. And if theres any math to learn in life its statistics. No excuses for confusing raw stats with performance. Its just intellectual laziness

The temerity of individuals who claim the objectivty of these numbers is a product of socialization which teaches folks to worship visible authority and infuriates me to no end

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12-25-2012, 09:13 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 View Post
I just have to agree with you and expand on the fact that people who legitimize statistics over actual walking are legitimately clueless. Its absolutely terrible methodology. There is Zero reason to believe that stats are a credible source of info unless there is rigorous methodology proof and discussion. And dont complain about being too lazy to do this because there is a whole community of people who do this. And if theres any math to learn in life its statistics. No excuses for confusing raw stats with performance. Its just intellectual laziness

The temerity of individuals who claim the objectivty of these numbers is a product of socialization which teaches folks to worship visible authority and infuriates me to no end
What?

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Old
12-25-2012, 09:28 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Xokkeu View Post
What?
People will belive some pixels on theahl.com instead of a dude who has watched 50 games of a player and i think that is an insult to hockey

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Old
12-26-2012, 08:43 AM
  #57
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Most posters here form their opinions based on stats, which adds another layer of abstraction. Any claim about a prospect having a good/bad year should be taken lightly around here. It's usually a mix of fact/opinion/hope.

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