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MLS vs. NHL Going Forward?

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Old
12-26-2012, 07:29 PM
  #26
Confucius
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
Big market teams mostly in Canada will keep the NHL ahead of the MLS in terms of league revenues.

But the MLS could very well overtake the NHL in smaller markets, and markets where the NHL has no presence.

But the big Canadian cities (Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver) in itself create hundreds of millions for the NHL and I doubt that the MLS will ever come close to any of these 3 cities in any market (and let's not forget about NY).
Interesting enough Montreal Impact drew 59,000 for a game against Chicago and 60,000 for a game against L A. Welcome to the MLS rookies

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12-26-2012, 07:36 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
Interesting enough Montreal Impact drew 59,000 for a game against Chicago and 60,000 for a game against L A. Welcome to the MLS rookies

Let's see this on a more regular basis and then you'll have me as a believer. But we won't, and the NHL will remain king in Canada, and that should be sufficient support to keep the NHL above the MLS for the next decade or two.

No MLS franchise would be close to the 500 million to 1 billion value. I'm not holding my breath.

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12-26-2012, 07:39 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
Let's see this on a more regular basis and then you'll have me as a believer. But we won't, and the NHL will remain king in Canada, and that should be sufficient support to keep the NHL above the MLS for the next decade or two.

No MLS franchise would be close to the 500 million to 1 billion value. I'm not holding my breath.
L A galaxy gave a player a 250 million dollar contract, I won't hold my breath until the NHL hands out a similar one. Albeit it was within Bettmans 5 year max plan.


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Old
12-26-2012, 07:41 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
In the short term, maybe. In the long term, you are speculating.

You don't know what will be in 20 years. However, I would bet my life, that within this time frame no MLS team will come close to the value of Canada's big hockey markets. You can't say the same for US markets.
Yes you can. It's asinine that you are just grouping EVERY US market together. The Philadelphia Union will never be more valuable than the Flyers. The NE Revolution will NEVER be more valuable than the Bruins. The Chicago Fire will NEVER be more valuable than the Blackhawks.

Chicago, Philly, Boston, etc. have more in common with Montreal and Toronto than they do say Columbus, where the Crew COULD pass the Jackets. It's established markets vs unestablished markets, not this US vs Canada inferiority complex nonsense that so many Canadians on this board who are completely misinformed like to spew.

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12-26-2012, 07:59 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
L A galaxy gave a player a 250 million dollar contract, I won't hold my breath until the NHL hands out a similar one. Albeit it was within Bettmans 5 year max plan.
How much are the Galaxy worth? Surely not half a billion.

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Originally Posted by IU Hawks fan View Post
Yes you can. It's asinine that you are just grouping EVERY US market together. The Philadelphia Union will never be more valuable than the Flyers. The NE Revolution will NEVER be more valuable than the Bruins. The Chicago Fire will NEVER be more valuable than the Blackhawks.

Chicago, Philly, Boston, etc. have more in common with Montreal and Toronto than they do say Columbus, where the Crew COULD pass the Jackets. It's established markets vs unestablished markets, not this US vs Canada inferiority complex nonsense that so many Canadians on this board who are completely misinformed like to spew.
In 20 years, I'd say it's almost certain the the Canadiens or Leafs will sustain if not grow their local market and support and continue to be bigger than their soccer counterparts.

I can't say the same for Chicago, Boston or Philly... Nobody know's if Hockey will sustain itself in the US with certainty, but we can almost surely bet on that in Canada.

Also, those 3 teams you speak of have been successful as of late, which helps your argument.

The Canadiens will forever be bigger than the Impact, at least in my life time.

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12-26-2012, 08:20 PM
  #31
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MLS could see their revenue increase tenfold, and they'd still be smaller than the NHL.

There is still a massive, massive gulf between the NHL and MLS, as much as hockey naysayers and soccer fans might want to otherwise be the case.

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12-26-2012, 08:37 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by No Fun Shogun View Post
MLS could see their revenue increase tenfold, and they'd still be smaller than the NHL.

There is still a massive, massive gulf between the NHL and MLS, as much as hockey =/= NHL naysayers and soccer fans might want to otherwise be the case.
Let's be reality. KHL has billionaires too. The NHL is not the best without all the good euros. Too bad MMA(!!!) has reached 50% of the NHL in 12 years. You guys assume the NHL will still be around in 20 years. We don't know what will happen.

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12-26-2012, 08:38 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
How much are the Galaxy worth? Surely not half a billion.



In 20 years, I'd say it's almost certain the the Canadiens or Leafs will sustain if not grow their local market and support and continue to be bigger than their soccer counterparts.

I can't say the same for Chicago, Boston or Philly... Nobody know's if Hockey will sustain itself in the US with certainty, but we can almost surely bet on that in Canada.

Also, those 3 teams you speak of have been successful as of late, which helps your argument.

The Canadiens will forever be bigger than the Impact, at least in my life time.
Demographics. Hockey is expensive. MLS will may never catch NHL but Soccer will catch hockey

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12-26-2012, 08:48 PM
  #34
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Let's be reality. KHL has billionaires too. The NHL is not the best without all the good euros. Too bad MMA(!!!) has reached 50% of the NHL in 12 years. You guys assume the NHL will still be around in 20 years. We don't know what will happen.
Have you watched the KHL during this lockout? Even with NHL players, it's MILES behind the NHL in terms of hockey quality. Then look at their arenas which are mostly unsuitable to be considered in the top league of hockey.

MMA isn't going to sustain, it had a nice boom but it's probably close to it's limit. Similar to NASCAR which was poised to surge into the big 4 nationally, but stagnated and is slipping back again.

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12-26-2012, 08:53 PM
  #35
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You guys underestimate how big the NHL is in terms of revenue. I don't see MLS becoming one of the top soccer league in the world in terms of revenue, and that is what it would take to pass the NHL on that front.

This lockout won't have that much damage (and if this gets settled and their are playoffs this year there will be little to no damage).

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12-26-2012, 09:16 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
Interesting enough Montreal Impact drew 59,000 for a game against Chicago and 60,000 for a game against L A. Welcome to the MLS rookies
Nonsense. Only times MLS draws like that is for doubleheaders -- ie when a real soccer team from Europe comes to town, or a big national team game like US vs Mexico or Canada vs US.

It's like a minor league team drawing 60k because the Yankees play the Dodgers after them.

MLS uses the 2 games for 1 price trick fairly often, it's a good marketing gimmick.

MLS will always be a minor league. It has a salary cap of $2 million -- per team!

Oh, and the $250M for Beckham was a lie. It was just marketing hype. He wasn't paid $250M or anywhere close to that. It was just PR to trick the simple-minded.

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12-26-2012, 10:16 PM
  #37
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It's always sexy to talk about how a hard charging league that is experiencing growth will overtake a big established league that isn't.

In the end, when the dust settles, the established league usually wins.

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12-26-2012, 10:48 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by scotchex View Post
Nonsense. Only times MLS draws like that is for doubleheaders -- ie when a real soccer team from Europe comes to town, or a big national team game like US vs Mexico or Canada vs US.

It's like a minor league team drawing 60k because the Yankees play the Dodgers after them.

MLS uses the 2 games for 1 price trick fairly often, it's a good marketing gimmick.

MLS will always be a minor league. It has a salary cap of $2 million -- per team!

Oh, and the $250M for Beckham was a lie. It was just marketing hype. He wasn't paid $250M or anywhere close to that. It was just PR to trick the simple-minded.
What a load of garbage...

Seattle averaged over 40k fans this year. I do believe that would be top 5 in Premier League.

The leage had 5 teams average over 20k fans per game this season.

As for your comment about the national games...44,000 people showed up for a USA Scotland game. Really big draw those Scots...

And what is this 2 for 1 crap? Please point out to me the last time a major soccer team played 2 games in 1 day at their home stadium where they charged 1 price for both games. Really looking forward to this one.

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12-26-2012, 11:23 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Legionnaire11 View Post
Have you watched the KHL during this lockout? Even with NHL players, it's MILES behind the NHL in terms of hockey quality. Then look at their arenas which are mostly unsuitable to be considered in the top league of hockey.

MMA isn't going to sustain, it had a nice boom but it's probably close to it's limit. Similar to NASCAR which was poised to surge into the big 4 nationally, but stagnated and is slipping back again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrdevil View Post
You guys underestimate how big the NHL is in terms of revenue. I don't see MLS becoming one of the top soccer league in the world in terms of revenue, and that is what it would take to pass the NHL on that front.

This lockout won't have that much damage (and if this gets settled and their are playoffs this year there will be little to no damage).
NASCAR and the NHL had the same revenue last year. Nascar is not a team spot so people don't count it.

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12-26-2012, 11:53 PM
  #40
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Nonsense. Only times MLS draws like that is for doubleheaders -- ie when a real soccer team from Europe comes to town, or a big national team game like US vs Mexico or Canada vs US.


This is CenturyLink Field on October 15, 2011. The Seattle Sounders hosted the San Jose Earthquakes. There was no doubleheader, no fireworks displays or promotions outside of the game and the players. The Sounders brought in more than 64,000 people.

That's neither the first nor last time they've done that. The Clink is their home field, and they averaged 43,144 this year, which would have been good enough for third in Serie A behind only the Milan teams (or sixth in the Premiership if you like, ahead of Champions' League winners Chelsea). Perhaps more relevant to our discussion: they outdrew 28 of 30 MLB teams this year (the exceptions being the Yankees and Phillies). Houston opened a new stadium this year and tacked more than 4,000 fans onto their average attendance. Over the last two seasons, Sporting Kansas City has seen its attendance grow by a very impressive 88%; after having the league's lowest attendance eight times since forming in 1996, they're now up over 19,000 fans per game.

As a league, MLS is one of the top ten in the world in terms of average attendance, ahead of Brazil, Argentina, China and Japan, and miles ahead of mid-level European countries like Austria, Scotland and Ukraine, as well as some high-level European leagues (read: Portugal and Russia). It's nipping at the heels of the top flights in France and the Netherlands. The league smashed all of its attendance records this year and shows no signs of slowing down.


Quote:
MLS will always be a minor league. It has a salary cap of $2 million -- per team!
And teams are allowed three exceptions to that cap that can be paid whatever the team can afford - that's how the league got guys like Beckham and Henry, and it's how they will keep the next generation of stars.

Keeping the salary cap artificially low is also allowing teams to increase ticket prices gradually, and it prevents teams from outspending each other by a 30:1 ratio like what happens in baseball. Sorely inflated player costs courtesy of the New York Cosmos are what turned the NASL into a franchise fee-sucking parasite and ultimately strangled it. MLS will have outlived that league at the end of the 2013 campaign, and with a much healthier outlook.

Quote:
Oh, and the $250M for Beckham was a lie. It was just marketing hype. He wasn't paid $250M or anywhere close to that. It was just PR to trick the simple-minded.
The $250M was a projection that included endorsement deals. I don't think anyone would suggest that Beckham was paid $250M by MLS over any period of time, although his contract did include the right to a "buy-in" with a club after his retirement. We'll see if he uses that in the near future.

MLS has found its groove, and with exposure through both NBC Sports and ESPN, it's in great shape to continue its push into the ranks of the elite sports leagues in the world. That's really the key for them: consolidating their strong local followings across the continent into a national and international presence. Signing guys like Mikkel Diskerud would be a huge boost to the league's credibility with the so-called "Eurosnobs" - the people who are so wrapped up in their perception of MLS that they can't see the reality of the league's growth on the field or off. The Mix move seems unlikely to happen, but for now, the league can definitely benefit from players who are a little older but still have name recognition, like Kaká or maybe even Didier Drogba.

All of that said, competition between sports is not explicitly a zero-sum game; a lot of people who spend their money on soccer likely weren't going to spend it on many other sports or let it affect their spending on other sports. Besides, MLS has a long, long way to go before it catches the other sports: the NHL is the weakest of the Big Four at a not-so-measly $3.3 billion last year. MLS can't even touch that right now because of its small TV contracts (which will go up with time and exposure).

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12-26-2012, 11:56 PM
  #41
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I go to Galaxy games occasionally, and they are fantastic. Incredible atmosphere. But the simple fact remains that it just isn't close to the best league in the world. Americans are spoiled. We have the best Football league, the best basketball league, and the best baseball league - where the world's best come to play. The NHL will be the same when the lockout gets sorted out. The MLS is never going to be the best league and thus won't garner the attention the other 4 do.

Being the best is what brings in the money, and the MLS just doesn't have it.

And why does everyone keep bringing up the Sounders FC as an example? They are by far the exception. Using Seattle as an example of why the MLS is succeeding is like using Toronto as an example of the NHL making money. One team draws like that - the 2nd highest is the Galaxy at under 25K per game.

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12-27-2012, 12:42 AM
  #42
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The last thread is over a year old.


How does this lockout affect the naysayers who maintained MLS will always remain a second rate league?

I think there's no question the NHL will be pushed to 5th place in the United States.
I agree. Lots of NHL fans in my area have jumped ship for the MLS and the world of Euro soccer. I feel the Red Bulls will be as popular if not more than the Devils in 10 years. Unless the NHL seriously fixes the game and stops having lockouts every 5 years, then I would have to agree with this.

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12-27-2012, 12:47 AM
  #43
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In the soccer world the MLS is still very much a second/third rate league. It won't sniff the other four (NHL being the closest) so long as every soccer fan would rather watch European matchups.

It will need a few decades to build a fanbase that dedicate themselves primarily to their local franchises instead of those abroad. At this point, fans are very price sensitive and if you try to push the prices too much then they'll just go back to watching more EPL or Serie A at home. And so long as the MLS can't draw revenues like the NHL (at the least) they aren't going to be a league that people actually care about.
so is the NHL. not sure if MLS will surpass the NHL, but there is no way the NHL should be group with the big 3.

the NHL is definitely closer to MLS than MLB, NBA, and NFL.

the NHL is closer to WWE and or comedy central...

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12-27-2012, 04:40 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
L A galaxy gave a player a 250 million dollar contract, I won't hold my breath until the NHL hands out a similar one. Albeit it was within Bettmans 5 year max plan.
The Beckham so-called 250 million contract was a exaggeration that the media ran with. Beckham was paid handsomely. But he never got close to 250 million from AEG/Galaxy.

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12-27-2012, 06:03 AM
  #45
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The MLS is never going to overtake the NHL.
Whatever.


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12-27-2012, 06:10 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by No Fun Shogun View Post
MLS could see their revenue increase tenfold, and they'd still be smaller than the NHL.
In the U.S., the growth in MLS is on an exponential curve. The league has stability and kids will grow up pulling for their hometown team, a new driver. The quality of play has improved markedly and the league can continue to expand without diluting this.

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12-27-2012, 06:11 AM
  #47
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As easy as soccer is to pick up when you're little, it seems just as easy to drop when you get older. I've searched for a study that shows how long the average soccer player plays in an organized league vs other sports, but IMO, people who have to pay more just to play their sport, tend to care about staying with it more.
Great angle. When I was kid, I had friends who played soccer, but I can't say I remember them ever talking about it around me. They never mentioned a favourite team or anything, nothing about soccer. Oh, but they made no secret of being hockey fans or football fans, we talked about that all the time. And I'm not the kind of guy who would ridicule somebody for liking soccer, especially if they knew that I knew they played it (Good sport, just not the easiest for me to watch a lot, but I prefer it to baseball and basketball now, when it used to be when I was a kid that I would watch any of the big 4 sports but not soccer.). One of my friends played soccer and lacrosse and he dropped soccer in his early teens. I had another friend drop soccer for hockey. I enjoyed playing it in elementary school during lunch, but it never translated to me watching it and cheering for any team.

But there is much more exposure to soccer on TV now than there was back then. It will never be bigger than hockey in Canada, though, but it's trying.

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12-27-2012, 06:13 AM
  #48
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Near future, doubt it. Soccer is too boring and sissy to Americans.

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12-27-2012, 06:13 AM
  #49
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worstface-

I live in Europe, and I believe you are wrong about "Eurosnobs" unless you are referring to stateside losers. Europeans truly love their soccer in an honest way and as the level of play in MLS has improved the interest from Europe has increased. The MLS Cup was widely followed incl live blogs in all of the major papers. MLS will tell you their issue is with Latin Americans, who fill the stadiums and need more ahem brown players for these kids to follow. MLS is on track with Europe and ahem white guys.


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12-27-2012, 07:04 AM
  #50
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so is the NHL. not sure if MLS will surpass the NHL, but there is no way the NHL should be group with the big 3.

the NHL is definitely closer to MLS than MLB, NBA, and NFL.

the NHL is closer to WWE and or comedy central...
Based on the annual revenue it brings in, the NHL in EXTREMELY close to the NBA. The MLS is miles upon miles behind.

There is no 'Big 3'. Based on annual revenue it's either the Big 2 or the Big 4. You can't exclude the NHL if you are including the NBA. The NBA is much closer revenue wise to the NHL than it is the NFL or MLB.

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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
In 20 years, I'd say it's almost certain the the Canadiens or Leafs will sustain if not grow their local market and support and continue to be bigger than their soccer counterparts.

I can't say the same for Chicago, Boston or Philly... Nobody know's if Hockey will sustain itself in the US with certainty, but we can almost surely bet on that in Canada.
Again with the 'WE'RE BETTER THAN YOU! BLAH BLAH BLAH' nonsense. You sound like you've never stepped foot in the US, let alone been to a game in a major market here.

Big US cities in the Northeast and Midwest have VERY sustainable fan bases, nearly as much as Toronto and Montreal do. Support of hockey just isn't going to die. Hockey has been part of the culture of these places for a very long time. Get off your rocker, that is just a fact!

Quote:
Also, those 3 teams you speak of have been successful as of late, which helps your argument.
That doesn't matter. Even in the heyday of Bill Wirtz the Hawks would be much more valuable to a buyer than the Fire are.

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