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Wasting talent in CHL, evidence

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12-25-2012, 07:08 PM
  #76
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While I don't disagree the best talents should stay home until they're ready I think it's overblown that elite young talents will become super stars if they stay in Russia and NA is what made their careers go wrong. If you take the top talent of an age group such as that in the WJC and look at the careers of players who developed in Russia the results havn't been that great in terms of producing top of the line KHL or even VHL players. Alot of players who are producing at the KHL level only started to due so after a stint in the AHL/NHL. Just look at the past teams and you will be hardpressed to find more than a handful who have produced even half a point per game during their KHL careers, majority are 3rd and 4th liners or VHL players who havn't even reached 20 pts in one season. So who is to be able to say with certainty the players who went to the CHL instead of going to Russia wouldn't have had the same fate?

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12-25-2012, 08:17 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by wings5 View Post
While I don't disagree the best talents should stay home until they're ready I think it's overblown that elite young talents will become super stars if they stay in Russia and NA is what made their careers go wrong. If you take the top talent of an age group such as that in the WJC and look at the careers of players who developed in Russia the results havn't been that great in terms of producing top of the line KHL or even VHL players. Alot of players who are producing at the KHL level only started to due so after a stint in the AHL/NHL. Just look at the past teams and you will be hardpressed to find more than a handful who have produced even half a point per game during their KHL careers, majority are 3rd and 4th liners or VHL players who havn't even reached 20 pts in one season. So who is to be able to say with certainty the players who went to the CHL instead of going to Russia wouldn't have had the same fate?
you made a fault. MHL, VHL were created in 2009 and 2010 (with new rules in VHL this season). So yes, if kids born 1995 stayed in KHL-VHL-MHL system, they would do better. Look at Russian roster at WJC in Ufa, only one 95 born player, Nichushkin playing VHL. Why not Barbashev who was much better in MHL last season? I tell you why.. Ivan made mistake by going to CHL, lost time for developing. I am sure he would make current russian roster if staying at home.

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12-25-2012, 08:35 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by wings5 View Post
While I don't disagree the best talents should stay home until they're ready I think it's overblown that elite young talents will become super stars if they stay in Russia and NA is what made their careers go wrong. If you take the top talent of an age group such as that in the WJC and look at the careers of players who developed in Russia the results havn't been that great in terms of producing top of the line KHL or even VHL players. Alot of players who are producing at the KHL level only started to due so after a stint in the AHL/NHL. Just look at the past teams and you will be hardpressed to find more than a handful who have produced even half a point per game during their KHL careers, majority are 3rd and 4th liners or VHL players who havn't even reached 20 pts in one season. So who is to be able to say with certainty the players who went to the CHL instead of going to Russia wouldn't have had the same fate?
To answer your rhetorical question out loud: no one. And I agree with you, except that I wouldn't pay any heed to the players' production after their AHL/NHL stints due to them being too young before they played there to have any real KHL before and after comparison. People should stop just looking at a "failed" CHL-er and immediately jump to the conclusion it was the league that did it, though. You can discuss this on a case to case basis, and even then, like you said, you don't have a control case. But alright, assuming you allow for some inferences, it's still absolutely ridiculous to claim talent wasting in the CHL for every single Russian that doesn't pan out.

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12-26-2012, 04:15 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by cska78 View Post
Only the best dman in a gold winning wjc team with highest +/- and great upside
+/- is stat that isn't the first one needs to look at. So many factors not involving the player himself make that one.

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12-26-2012, 10:41 PM
  #80
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A nice writeup that includes Dikushin :

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...sence-in-ushl/

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12-27-2012, 07:09 AM
  #81
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Not sure if mentioned but I think Gogolev has to fall into this category

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12-27-2012, 08:09 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by wings5 View Post
A nice writeup that includes Dikushin :

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...sence-in-ushl/
I think he's prime example on the big "lesson" in all this. Each kid makes choices depending on their individual situation. They don't look at studies or researches on what happened with other players. They look at what's good for them. There's only so many open spots on hockey teams around the world for players, but so many different routes to try taking one.

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12-27-2012, 09:06 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
I think he's prime example on the big "lesson" in all this. Each kid makes choices depending on their individual situation. They don't look at studies or researches on what happened with other players. They look at what's good for them. There's only so many open spots on hockey teams around the world for players, but so many different routes to try taking one.
He is actually a great example, and a reason why this thread should be expanded to NA, not just CHL (it's clearly not a league issue). Dikushin was the best 95 prospect on the best 95 Russian team - CSKA. Now he fell of big time. What you don't understand (or don't want to admit) is that there's a system to pry best talent out of the world into NA, with the light at the end of the tunnel - called the NHL. En route to that "light" these young world stars are used to a) feel pockets of NA junior league team owners, b) better prepare NA american players by increasing the competitiveness of their prep leagues and then there are agents, scouts bluh-bluh...This system MUST be broken as far as Russia is concerned - MHL is better paid then the CHL, better suited for developing Russian players and all in all a better place that doesn't require them to adjust to a foreign country, language, different game all together. If you don't understand that - I question your mental capabilities, if you understand but keep claiming the opposite - I question your interest in it.
p.s. I do admit that there's a tiny % of players that could benefit from developing abroad, but it's very circumstantial.


Last edited by cska78: 12-27-2012 at 09:11 AM.
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12-27-2012, 01:46 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by cska78 View Post
He is actually a great example, and a reason why this thread should be expanded to NA, not just CHL (it's clearly not a league issue). Dikushin was the best 95 prospect on the best 95 Russian team - CSKA. Now he fell of big time. What you don't understand (or don't want to admit) is that there's a system to pry best talent out of the world into NA, with the light at the end of the tunnel - called the NHL. En route to that "light" these young world stars are used to a) feel pockets of NA junior league team owners, b) better prepare NA american players by increasing the competitiveness of their prep leagues and then there are agents, scouts bluh-bluh...This system MUST be broken as far as Russia is concerned - MHL is better paid then the CHL, better suited for developing Russian players and all in all a better place that doesn't require them to adjust to a foreign country, language, different game all together. If you don't understand that - I question your mental capabilities, if you understand but keep claiming the opposite - I question your interest in it.
p.s. I do admit that there's a tiny % of players that could benefit from developing abroad, but it's very circumstantial.
Like I said, you can't put individuals in statistics, each player does what they think is best for them and it is not the place of people on internet message boards to tell them how they would develop better. You can never fault people for having goals in their sporting life (=NHL).

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12-27-2012, 02:07 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
Like I said, you can't put individuals in statistics, each player does what they think is best for them and it is not the place of people on internet message boards to tell them how they would develop better. You can never fault people for having goals in their sporting life (=NHL).
I disagree, as their mind is influenced by people like Larionov, and being young kids - they are not capable of making a proper descision. I know for a fact that Larionov convinced Serebryakov's parents to make a move to the NHL...Had they been 22-23 year olds making that decision, I would may be agree.

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12-27-2012, 02:10 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
Like I said, you can't put individuals in statistics, each player does what they think is best for them and it is not the place of people on internet message boards to tell them how they would develop better. You can never fault people for having goals in their sporting life (=NHL).
Definitely some merit to this. You seem some posters calling 16 or 17 yr old kids stupid for going to North America. Well they are young people making a career choice that thy have dreamed about. Of course some are manipulated, some are not. Criticise the system and agents here, not the kids, who are largely simply following a dream.

I do disagree however that we should not be looking at this from a statistical point of view. How else are we supposed to analyse the situation? If one wishes to create an overview of the health of the system, and where Russian youngsters develop best, it is a neccessity to implement statistics. If a 100 promising players leave to NA, and 90% fail ; then we must assume some correlation between North America and failed development exists. This is not to say all of these players would have developed well in Russia either, or that some players did not benefit from going to North America. It will be individual in that respect. However when assessing what is the best general path from a systematic point of view, we must use this statistics and must come to the conclusion ; it is by and large better for Russian youngsters to develop in Russian based systems.

Of course, some posters (Well, largely just Peter) take these statistics much too far, assuming all will fail, that no Russian players could ever improve in the CHL (palpable nonsense, some Russian youngsters do develop well in North America) and that these kids are stupid. Gets really tedious reading the same, unoriginal, boring one liners from him.

It would be interesting if in a few years, somebody can accumulate all the data from 2005 onwards on how high end Russian prospects develop in North america (Success rate) and how that success rate compares with the graveyard statistics of the 90's and early 2000's for Russian youngsters going to North America. Wonder what the difference, if any, will be.

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12-27-2012, 02:19 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by cska78 View Post
I disagree, as their mind is influenced by people like Larionov, and being young kids - they are not capable of making a proper descision. I know for a fact that Larionov convinced Serebryakov's parents to make a move to the NHL...Had they been 22-23 year olds making that decision, I would may be agree.
sad, and look at Dynamo Moscow.. goalie born 1991 is playing KHL, no problem. Ok, Eremenko was injured, but there was backup.. why did Sharychenkov play? Ohh.. club gave him a chance. The same would happen to Serebryakov, but Larionov did not want the kid to progress

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12-27-2012, 02:51 PM
  #88
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I disagree, as their mind is influenced by people like Larionov, and being young kids - they are not capable of making a proper descision. I know for a fact that Larionov convinced Serebryakov's parents to make a move to the NHL...Had they been 22-23 year olds making that decision, I would may be agree.
Think about it, on one hand you have a hockey legend like Igor Larionov giving you advice, on one hand you have people on message boards (yelling at deaf ears ). Who's advise would you take (as a 15-17 year old)?

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12-27-2012, 02:56 PM
  #89
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Definitely some merit to this. You seem some posters calling 16 or 17 yr old kids stupid for going to North America. Well they are young people making a career choice that thy have dreamed about. Of course some are manipulated, some are not. Criticise the system and agents here, not the kids, who are largely simply following a dream.

I do disagree however that we should not be looking at this from a statistical point of view. How else are we supposed to analyse the situation? If one wishes to create an overview of the health of the system, and where Russian youngsters develop best, it is a neccessity to implement statistics. If a 100 promising players leave to NA, and 90% fail ; then we must assume some correlation between North America and failed development exists. This is not to say all of these players would have developed well in Russia either, or that some players did not benefit from going to North America. It will be individual in that respect. However when assessing what is the best general path from a systematic point of view, we must use this statistics and must come to the conclusion ; it is by and large better for Russian youngsters to develop in Russian based systems.

Of course, some posters (Well, largely just Peter) take these statistics much too far, assuming all will fail, that no Russian players could ever improve in the CHL (palpable nonsense, some Russian youngsters do develop well in North America) and that these kids are stupid. Gets really tedious reading the same, unoriginal, boring one liners from him.

It would be interesting if in a few years, somebody can accumulate all the data from 2005 onwards on how high end Russian prospects develop in North america (Success rate) and how that success rate compares with the graveyard statistics of the 90's and early 2000's for Russian youngsters going to North America. Wonder what the difference, if any, will be.
I'd actually like to know which CHL teams have been most beneficial to European players progression as I think that is a key factor (quality of the team/coach). E.g. of Finn who went to a really bad team was Tommi Kivistö (Red Deer, they were last in CHL that season IIRC). Though he didn't exactly progress much after returning either so one could day it made no effect on him.


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12-27-2012, 02:59 PM
  #90
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sad, and look at Dynamo Moscow.. goalie born 1991 is playing KHL, no problem. Ok, Eremenko was injured, but there was backup.. why did Sharychenkov play? Ohh.. club gave him a chance. The same would happen to Serebryakov, but Larionov did not want the kid to progress
Well, it's great Sharychenkov is playing, but, honestly, if it weren't for both Eremenko's injury and Volkov playing like utter crap, I don't see him getting the play time he's getting now. I don't think backup goalies usually suck this bad, so the chances of both that and the starter getting injured for a long period of time occurring were pretty low. So I don't think you can say they didn't want the kid to progress, it's just that in life there's never a guarantee, just probabilities of an event occurring. And they could've just figured that the chances of him getting ice time in the KHL were too small to warrant him staying in Russia.

I'm not arguing that it was the right decision in the particular case you mentioned, but you can't just look at another particular case, i.e. Sharychenkov, where it just so happened that everything turned out seemingly fine, and then argue the same would happen for a different player, making his move to the CHL unwise.

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12-27-2012, 03:04 PM
  #91
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Think about it, on one hand you have a hockey legend like Igor Larionov giving you advice, on one hand you have people on message boards (yelling at deaf ears ). Who's advise would you take (as a 15-17 year old)?
People on message boards are stating their opinion; they are not giving direct advice to young players.


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12-27-2012, 05:02 PM
  #92
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I'd actually like to know which CHL teams have been most beneficial to European players progression as I think that is a key factor (quality of the team/coach). E.g. of Finn who went to a really bad team was Tommi Kivistö (Red Deer, they were last in CHL that season IIRC). Though he didn't exactly progress much after returning either so one could day it made no effect on him.
I would imagine a correlation would exist between teams and future abilities/performance. Part of that will be simply because a few teams have the power to lure the top talent over ; think Quebec, Kitchener, London etc. Majority of these teams have good coaching and invest time in integrating that player into the environment.

Of course it is still dependant on the player and how he adapts both culturally and hockey wise.

One problem i think we are witnessing is the type of players that go over. Quite alot of small but talented players seem to go over to the CHL, when infact their size and style probably means they aren't viable NHL prospects anyway ; but the years spent in the CHL really harm their prospects for a solid KHL/European career. By going for it all, they get nothing. At least, i think this might be one problem, though obviously just a theory.

I remember Kivisto, was quite hyped if i recall and ranked in the late 1st (?). I remember Rajala going to Brandon and once he returned, they said he return a worse player (I think i remember reading this). Not Russian, but similar player type in a sense. Of course he wasn't really a viable NHL prospect anyway, but did that season help his European career?

Statistically, Russians should stay home. But Russian posters need to stop yapping that a player is ruined as soon as they hear the news that he is leaving for North America. Vorky continually says "they ruined him" when it's been a few months for some of these players.

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12-27-2012, 05:37 PM
  #93
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12-27-2012, 06:19 PM
  #94
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I remember Kivisto, was quite hyped if i recall and ranked in the late 1st (?). I remember Rajala going to Brandon and once he returned, they said he return a worse player (I think i remember reading this). Not Russian, but similar player type in a sense. Of course he wasn't really a viable NHL prospect anyway, but did that season help his European career?
Well Kivistö didn't look to have developed much but since returning he didn't seem to develop much either. His biggest faults are mostly on the mental side(consistency), doesn't matter what league he plays in. Rajala on the other had injury issues in his CHL year which effected him most. The biggest problem for wasn't either the league he played in, but his smallish frame. He reportedly doesn't have much interest in weight training or he just doesn't catch on any weight (like Erik Karlsson).

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12-27-2012, 08:09 PM
  #95
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Think about it, on one hand you have a hockey legend like Igor Larionov giving you advice, on one hand you have people on message boards (yelling at deaf ears ). Who's advise would you take (as a 15-17 year old)?
I told his father's friend, he should stay in the MHL, get a starting job for HC MVD, play for two years and if he still thinks that he should go to NA so be it and he carried the message over to Serebryakov's father, but Larionov's "whispering" worked like a charm, now the most potent Russian goalie born in 95 is riding the pine and degrading.

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12-27-2012, 08:11 PM
  #96
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I agree, with Vorky and the other posters you can understand and agree with them in some of the cases. But others it gets really annoying to hear such a one sided view that it is such a horrible thing to come to the CHL for every single Russian. These things are so hard to evaluate and for this new generation you will be able to see in a few years whether it was the right choice or not. But still one cannot be able to surely say if they would have turned out better if they stayed. Prospects from every country no matter where they develop succeed or bust all the time. Even when their bust likelyhood seemed extremely low all the time. It is impossible to play psychic and predict.

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12-27-2012, 08:37 PM
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Think about it, on one hand you have a hockey legend like Igor Larionov giving you advice, on one hand you have people on message boards (yelling at deaf ears ). Who's advise would you take (as a 15-17 year old)?
It's not an argument at all. Larionov is well known for his lopsided, extreme POV. Yes he is a legend, but it doesn't mean that he is always right. For example his most recent statement: "Now it's better to have in the KHL 12 teams, no more". Thanks God, they make him go from the board of directors of the KHL.


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12-27-2012, 08:58 PM
  #98
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I told his father's friend, he should stay in the MHL, get a starting job for HC MVD, play for two years and if he still thinks that he should go to NA so be it and he carried the message over to Serebryakov's father, but Larionov's "whispering" worked like a charm, now the most potent Russian goalie born in 95 is riding the pine and degrading.
any chance he come back next season?

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12-27-2012, 09:08 PM
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Larionov has an enormous chip on his shoulder, I have little respect for him as a person. As a Hockey player you can't deny his greatness. But the way he conducted himself with the Russian national team (Always creating trouble) and bringing kids who were raw products in Russia to North America is irritating. He is very egotistic and I am glad he is being pushed further and further away from Russian hockey.

For some kids it is good to go to the CHL, but each case is unique. I have always said that a Russian forward needs to polish his offensive ability in Russia, when he can no longer learn anymore in Russia and wants to play in the NHL he can go to North America (Usually at a mature age). Elite talents will do well in North America or Russia. The problem at large is Russian players who are obviously talented but still very raw bolting to North America and becoming incomplete products unable to translate their hockey to North America or the KHL.

Top Russian players will always be drafted no matter where they play. I don't see why some players care so much about Draft #?

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12-27-2012, 09:30 PM
  #100
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any chance he come back next season?
doubt it, he told my bud that he's happy in NA which is a lie of course. At time his dad wouldn't talk to my bud, when he is asking how the things are going in the OHL, lol

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