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Is Grabovski a top-six centre on a contender?

View Poll Results: Is Grabovski a first or second line centre on a contender?
Yes 164 56.94%
No 77 26.74%
Not if they want to win 47 16.32%
Voters: 288. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-26-2012, 01:12 PM
  #251
Hennig
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Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Then why are you using a quote from the same sources that I just cited for 'advanced stats' that you said weren't reliable? You can't have it both ways, by using the above quote to prop of Grabovski and then say " that stat is worthless".

Again, your
But you then cite the same source by using an opinion saying Grabovski was a good defensive center that doesn't even kill penalties. A little hypocritical.

Here's the bottom line.

Grabovski was on the ice for .939 GF20 and was on the ice for .939 GA20, when he's on the ice something is going to happen, either his line scores or they are scored against, he plays unsafe mins, it's part of the reason why The Leafs have had trouble protecting leads these 4 past years, you remember this don't you? Leafs habit of blowing leads.

Grabovski's does not know how to play safe mins, being the 29th worst GA team last year, 30th worst 2 of the last 4 years is plenty evidence enough.
You should of actually read the article. He used other statistics to come up with the list.
Quote:
1. I limited myself to players who have played >2000 minutes of 5v5 zone start adjusted ice time over the past three seasons.

2. I only considered players who had an average opposition goals for per 20 minutes of ice time above 0.800 (i.e. only consider players who played against tough offensive opponents, must have OppGF20>0.800).

3. I then eliminated all forwards with a goals against per 20 minutes of ice time >0.800 (i.e. eliminate players who didn’t get good defensive results, must have GA20<0.800).

4. I then took each players on ice goals against rate and divided it by his line mates goals against rate to ensure that they are performing better than their line mates and make their line mates better defensively (GA20/TMGA20 < 1.00).

5. I then eliminated any players who didn’t have >300 minutes of 4v5 PK ice time over the past 3 seasons.

After doing this I got the following list of players sorted by GA20/TMGA20, or in English sorted by how much better defensively they were than their line mates.
It's been proven again and again why the 5-5 GA/20 stat isn't very reliable when judging a players defensive capabilities, but you keep jumping around it.

It's hilarious how you fault Grabovski for our teams 29th/30th GA, yet not say one thing about our goaltenders, or our shaky defense.

The bottom line is -- watch Grabovski play and you can easily tell he is not as bad as you're making him out to be. If that isn't good enough, read through this thread again with an open mind and lots of people have put reliable statistics out to prove your theory wrong.

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Old
12-26-2012, 08:51 PM
  #252
Interactif
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Originally Posted by Hennig View Post
The Leafs give up more goals over 60 minutes when Grabovski is off the ice, and when he is on the ice, the Leafs consistently outshoot their opponents. In 2010-2011, Grabovski went a team high +14 on a team with a -33 goal differential. If we look at adjusted Corsi, Grabovski came in third in the entire league last year only behind Ryan Kesler, and Patrice Bergeron. He is a good two way center, I'm baffled at how you can try and argue that. Interactif, you can cherry pick all the stats you want, but Grabovski is without a doubt our best centerman, and as the poll shows, the majority of HF believes Grabovski is a top six C on a contender.
Remember this post? Especially the bolded part? Now that the facts are in and The Leafs do not give up more goals when Grabovski is not on the ice, you claim GA20 stats are faulty. You even cherry picked Grabovski's best season ignoring his other 3 years with the Leafs and most recent season, it's obvious you are trying way too hard to prop him up as some sort of great defensive centre, when all the evidence I pointed out here says he is not.

Does the Grabovski line know how to protect a lead, they are at their best when they are attacking, they don't chip in pucks or sit back and trap when the Leafs have a lead, this is why the Leafs blow so many leads when Ron Wilson was the Leafs coach. Grabovski doesn't know how to trap or defend, when they are not attacking they are a liability as evidenced by his .939 GF20 and .939 GA20. There is no escaping the cold hard stats.

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12-26-2012, 08:54 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by Yashintangibles View Post
Grabovski is immensely underrated here.
Only to leaf fans

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12-26-2012, 09:04 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
Just looking at GA ON/60 (or 20 or whatever) is pretty useless without context. If you look at the forwards with the highest GA ON/60 it's mostly filled with players that played on teams with poor goaltending (Leafs, Islanders, Blue Jackets, Lightning, Blackhawks, etc.). It's also highly dependent on the quality of competition and teammates, look at someone like Plekanec. He's considered one of the better defensive forwards in the league and actually got a few Selke votes and he has one of the highest GA ON/60 in the league among forwards (higher than Grabovski, and he played with a great goaltender). I guess Grabovski is a better defensive forward than Jonathan Toews and Jordan Staal as well because his GA ON/60 was lower than both of theirs.

If you want to look at GA ON/60 you have to compare it to GA OFF/60, but even that isn't entirely telling because it completely disregards quality of competition, which is a huge factor (again, even forwards like Jonathan Toews and Jordan Staal have a higher GA ON/60 than GA OFF/60 because of the quality of competition they face, I cannot emphasize enough how big of a factor that is). Grabovski's GA ON/60 is actually lower than his GA OFF/60 which is pretty impressive considering the quality of competition he faces.

But I have no doubts that you'll ignore this and focus on some minor detail, or claim that I'm trying to say Grabovski is better than Toews and Staal defensively, or bring up team GA again (), I don't know if Grabovski ran over your dog or something but it's seriously kinda sad how in denial you are right now. People bring up advanced statistics for pages saying that Grabovski is a great defensive forward, and all of a sudden you find one (largely useless) statistic where he doesn't fare too well and that's supposed to trump all that?


EDIT: It seems like you don't understand what these statistics mean or how to use them, you just found when where Grabovski didn't do too hot and instantly pointed to it. Although it is probably a more sound argument than looking at his +/- over a small handful of games or looking at team GA.
Another Leafs fan that likes to ignore stats, btw I was still waiting for your response on my last reply to you when I pointed out how Bozak outscored Grabovski the last 10 games of the year without Lupul and how Grabovski went -6 without Kulemin as his winger.

Why don't you compare the GA20 on the Leafs? Why are you ignoring these stats. You and Hennig are claiming he is our best defensive Center, he isn't, he doesn't play a style that is condusive to protecting leads, supported by the GA20 stat. He only knows one way to play, attack, when he isn't attacking it takes away his effectiveness. This makes him a liability when Leafs are trying to close out a game, you remember, Leafs try to outscore their weaknesses, there is no defence in the top 2 lines.

He's a good centre for a bottom feeder team and perhaps some playoff teams, but not one that can do the things of a Bergeron or Richards, number 2 Centers on contending teams. That's what this thread is about. Being a good #2 C on a 25th, 21st, 29th, and 23rd place team his 4 years with the Leafs does not make him a good #2 on a contender. A good #2 on a contender is Zetterberg, Bergeron, Richards, Henriques, Kesler, Schenn, Malkin, Coulture, act...Not Grabovski.


Last edited by Interactif: 12-26-2012 at 09:13 PM.
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Old
12-27-2012, 06:17 PM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Remember this post? Especially the bolded part? Now that the facts are in and The Leafs do not give up more goals when Grabovski is not on the ice, you claim GA20 stats are faulty. You even cherry picked Grabovski's best season ignoring his other 3 years with the Leafs and most recent season, it's obvious you are trying way too hard to prop him up as some sort of great defensive centre, when all the evidence I pointed out here says he is not.
The funny thing is, I'm not. Good defensive center? Yes... Best defensive/offensive center on the leafs? Without a doubt. One of the greats in the NHL? No.

I've stated this many times before, but you keep ignoring it. If GA/20 stats aren't faulty, then why the hell is Pleckanec, Zetterberg, Helm, Krejci, etc, GA/20 so high? It's honestly hilarious how you jump around this point and say that we are the ones ignoring the "cold hard stats."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Does the Grabovski line know how to protect a lead, they are at their best when they are attacking, they don't chip in pucks or sit back and trap when the Leafs have a lead, this is why the Leafs blow so many leads when Ron Wilson was the Leafs coach. Grabovski doesn't know how to trap or defend, when they are not attacking they are a liability as evidenced by his .939 GF20 and .939 GA20. There is no escaping the cold hard stats.
How do you know Grabovski doesn't know how to trap? He plays the system that the coach implements. That's pretty simple. Grabovski is a possession players. His relative corsi is +14.9(1st on the leafs) which indicates for every 60 minutes Grabovski plays ES, compared to every 60 minutes he isn't on the ice, the Maple Leafs net 14.9 more shots attempts than the opposing team. Funnier thing is, Grabovski only took 143 shots last year. So by having a relative corsi that high and a shot total that low must mean something? It means that he puts teammates in position to get shots on the net, and also restricts the opposition chances.

Ok just to put your GA/60 to rest:

Grabovski:
GF/60-GA/60-
2.80 -- 2.74

ON ice +/- per 60 = .06

Which is actually impressive being that the leafs goal differential was something like -33.

Macarthur, Kulemin and, Grabovski are the only players that didn't finish ON ICE +/- per 60 in the negatives. Wow what a coincidence, both of them were linemates of Grabovskis.

But don't worry. I'm fully expecting you to cherry pick another stat that Grabovski didn't do too well in and use that as your next excuse as to why Grabo sucks.


Last edited by Hennig: 12-27-2012 at 10:38 PM.
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Old
12-27-2012, 07:23 PM
  #256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Another Leafs fan that likes to ignore stats, btw I was still waiting for your response on my last reply to you when I pointed out how Bozak outscored Grabovski the last 10 games of the year without Lupul and how Grabovski went -6 without Kulemin as his winger.

Why don't you compare the GA20 on the Leafs? Why are you ignoring these stats. You and Hennig are claiming he is our best defensive Center, he isn't, he doesn't play a style that is condusive to protecting leads, supported by the GA20 stat. He only knows one way to play, attack, when he isn't attacking it takes away his effectiveness. This makes him a liability when Leafs are trying to close out a game, you remember, Leafs try to outscore their weaknesses, there is no defence in the top 2 lines.

He's a good centre for a bottom feeder team and perhaps some playoff teams, but not one that can do the things of a Bergeron or Richards, number 2 Centers on contending teams. That's what this thread is about. Being a good #2 C on a 25th, 21st, 29th, and 23rd place team his 4 years with the Leafs does not make him a good #2 on a contender. A good #2 on a contender is Zetterberg, Bergeron, Richards, Henriques, Kesler, Schenn, Malkin, Coulture, act...Not Grabovski.
I'm not ignoring any stats, you are. I'm explaining why the stat you are using is heavily flawed. If anyone is ignoring stats, it's you. According to your all-telling stat, Toews and Bolland are 2 of the 3 worst defensive forwards on the Blackhawks. How telling do you really think this statistic is? It's so heavily influenced by the quality of competition and quality of teammates, you seem to be ignoring all context which is silly.

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12-27-2012, 10:09 PM
  #257
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Wow this debate is still going strong.

Glad to see my poll is a hit.

Will do a recount on Sunday minus the ballet stuffers.

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12-27-2012, 10:12 PM
  #258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
He could be. I mean, there are better 2nd line centres than Grabovski, but he's still a really good player, and there's nothing wrong with having him at 2C.
pretty much... also depends a great deal on the make up of the roster.

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12-28-2012, 01:34 AM
  #259
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
He could be. I mean, there are better 2nd line centres than Grabovski, but he's still a really good player, and there's nothing wrong with having him at 2C.
Sure but a contending team would be a top 5 or top 10 team at least and he would need a perfect situation more times than not to be a top 6 forward on a contending team IMO.

There are quite simply bigger and better guys both offensively and defensively than him.

He is a lower tier 2nd line center for me.

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12-28-2012, 03:47 AM
  #260
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I'm trying to think of the last time a team won the cup with one of their top 2 centers being worse than Grabovski. 03 Devils is really the most recent team I can think of, and even then its debatable.

04) Lecavalier, Richards
06) Staal, Brind'amour
07) Macdonald, Getzlaf
08) Zetterberg, Datsyuk
09) Malkin, Crosby
10) Toews, Sharp
11) Krejci, Bergeron
12) Kopitar, Richards

03 Devils had Gomez and Nieuwendyk. Gomez in 03 was probably better than Grabovski now, but Nieuwendyk was definitely a step below Grabovski now.

I think its safe to say that it is possible a team could win a cup with Grabovski as its second line center, but not very likely as history has shown.

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12-28-2012, 04:05 AM
  #261
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Sure but a contending team would be a top 5 or top 10 team at least and he would need a perfect situation more times than not to be a top 6 forward on a contending team IMO.

There are quite simply bigger and better guys both offensively and defensively than him.

He is a lower tier 2nd line center for me.
How is a defensively responsible center who has been top 30 in scoring at the position for the past two years lower tier 2nd line center? That doesn't make any sense. And it has been shown in this thread how Grabovski would be a #1C on Phoenix and Nashville, as good as the #1C on New Jersey, a #2C on St. Louis, Ottawa, Chicago, Florida and as good as the #2C on New York.

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12-28-2012, 04:12 AM
  #262
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On a contender? Nah. Sedin and Kes would be ahead of him.

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12-28-2012, 12:14 PM
  #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish on The Sand View Post
I'm trying to think of the last time a team won the cup with one of their top 2 centers being worse than Grabovski. 03 Devils is really the most recent team I can think of, and even then its debatable.

04) Lecavalier, Richards
06) Staal, Brind'amour
07) Macdonald, Getzlaf
08) Zetterberg, Datsyuk
09) Malkin, Crosby
10) Toews, Sharp
11) Krejci, Bergeron
12) Kopitar, Richards

03 Devils had Gomez and Nieuwendyk. Gomez in 03 was probably better than Grabovski now, but Nieuwendyk was definitely a step below Grabovski now.

I think its safe to say that it is possible a team could win a cup with Grabovski as its second line center, but not very likely as history has shown.
Bingo, you get it. Anything is possible, but realistically no. When you look at the list of Cup Champions the past 10 years, it is far less likely those teams win if Grabovski is the 2C. No one can say he would be equal or even an upgrade to Richards, Bergeron, Zetterberg, Sharp, Malkin, Brindamour, Mcdonald, Richards, ect...That's the pertinent point not if it is possible, is it likely. Not when you look at this list of players.

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