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Mathletic's Top 210 Prospects for the 2013 NHL Draft (Christmas Edition) + Mock

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Old
12-28-2012, 08:38 AM
  #51
Mathletic
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Originally Posted by Helo View Post
Thanks Mathletic,yeah i think the move to the WHL has really improved his overall game,looked like he was the only guy for us to show up against finland.
What's your take on him?

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12-28-2012, 08:43 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
What's your take on him?
Has decent hands,average playmaking ability,but a great shot,so i see him as more of a sniper,hes only 5`10,but he has gained plenty of weight and has become noticebly better in physical play,overall decent prospect for us,but nothing out of the ordinary.

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12-28-2012, 08:59 AM
  #53
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Also Mathletic are you going to do the 2014 draft?

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12-28-2012, 09:51 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Helo View Post
Also Mathletic are you going to do the 2014 draft?
yeah sometime this winter I should post 2014 and 2015 draft rankings. Hopefully from that point on, everytime I make an update I'll have 3 drafts included.

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12-28-2012, 01:06 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
I'll try not to BS you too much because as you can expect I don't want to give it all away either

3. Well it looks to me like players don't change that much. What made them succesful at the junior level, on average, makes them succesful at the pro level. So measuring player performance is very valuable. You'll always find that X guy who put up a billion points in his junior career but when interpreted in the right context, player performance is very valuable in order to project how they will do at the pro level.

Feel free to ask any questions you like, I'll try not to bs or be too general about it
Thanks for the detailed response, minus too much BS I understand there are a number of things that you won't go into specifically for proprietary reasons.

About your response #3- is that a determination you made because of your own analysis? If you used other's studies, what we were they?

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12-28-2012, 01:53 PM
  #56
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I like that you take the time to do this work, but man oh man I have a really hard time agreeing with the results...especially the WHL.

I'll stick to watching and rating players that way.

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12-28-2012, 02:31 PM
  #57
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Wondering why Lipon didn't make your list? I'd have to think with the season he's had so far and his selection to the WJCs he's a lock to go somewhere in this draft.

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12-28-2012, 05:18 PM
  #58
Mathletic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerface1 View Post
Thanks for the detailed response, minus too much BS I understand there are a number of things that you won't go into specifically for proprietary reasons.

About your response #3- is that a determination you made because of your own analysis? If you used other's studies, what we were they?
It's a bit of both, I used some of my own analysis and integrated other ideas to my own. A lot of what I do also is tranlsating what has been done in other sports to hockey. Dean Oliver is a good example of someone who has done a great job in basketball and has proposed many good ideas. There's so much good research on basketball. There's the MIT Sloan School Sports Analytics conference every year in which many people come present their research or participate on various pannels, every year I come out of there with a ton of research ideas.

To name a few, for analytics in general Alan Ryder has done some good stuff at

http://hockeyanalytics.com/

The core of my analysis at the NHL is done through adjusted +/-, Brian McDonald has published some good ideas on the subject.

http://www.math.usma.edu/people/Macdonald/hockey.php

Outside of that you will find studies on the birthdate effect there

http://psychology.msu.edu/pers_hambr....%20(1988).pdf

it is also discussed in Malcolm Gladwell's book. I also bought a few papers here and there about the draft. To give a few ... I realize some are now available for free but anyways ...

Relationship of physical fitness test results and hockey playing potential in elite-level ice hockey players.

Jaime F Burr, Roni K Jamnik, Joseph Baker, Alison Macpherson, Norman Gledhill, E J McGuire
Human Performance Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Canada

http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...hockey_players

There's another research I can't find back that was quoted by Chiarelli. It basically says that weight is a better predictor of future performance than height.

At the MIT conference there was a professor who proposed a simple way of comparing draft results for the NFL. After testing various metrics he proposed to simply compare the n' of games played by player x1 drafted at position y1 vs the n' of games played by the next player, x2 who also played at that position y1. He then compiled the results to see if there were teams who did better on average then the rest of league.

There used to be a thread on the Habs board on analytics, I will try to find it back. I posted a bunch of links there. There's a by the numbers forum also, you may find some good info there.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
I like that you take the time to do this work, but man oh man I have a really hard time agreeing with the results...especially the WHL.

I'll stick to watching and rating players that way.
To each his own

For any one league in particular, I'm sure someone who spends a lot of time following and understanding what goes on in a specific league may come up with a better view, like you and the WHL. I know there are limits to the way I rank players but it gives a different perspective and it's still the best way for me to have a fairly good read on what's going on around the globe in hockey.

btw, if I had to guess you think

Too High

13 - Oliver Bjorkstrand
14 - Morgan Klimchuk
18 - Madison Bowey
26 - Jesse Lees
46 - Cody Corbett
57 - Roberts Lipsbergs
58 - Beau McCue
81 - Malte Strömwall
98 - Bolton Pouliot


Too Low

4 - Seth Jones
15 - Curtis Lazar
102 - Tristan Jarry
108 - Greg Chase
165 - Ayrton Nikkel
176 - Keegan Kanzig

Maybe Roy also even though you're not fan I guess you have him higher than 104


Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Wondering why Lipon didn't make your list? I'd have to think with the season he's had so far and his selection to the WJCs he's a lock to go somewhere in this draft.
I forgot to add him to the list. I'll have him in next time.


Last edited by Mathletic: 12-28-2012 at 09:26 PM.
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Old
12-28-2012, 06:46 PM
  #59
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Mathletic- thanks for posting all those links, they should keep me busy for quite some time(especially since I don't have a background in statistics). You mentioned using ideas/concepts from other sports-not sure if you have seen this or are familiar with the technology and the possible applications for hockey-
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/492/492

Not sure individual teams would be willing to shell out the $ for the system+upkeep

Was the research quoted by Chiarelli using weight as a predictor of success independent of height? Or was it a relationship between weight/height?

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Old
12-28-2012, 06:55 PM
  #60
Mathletic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerface1 View Post
Mathletic- thanks for posting all those links, they should keep me busy for quite some time(especially since I don't have a background in statistics). You mentioned using ideas/concepts from other sports-not sure if you have seen this or are familiar with the technology and the possible applications for hockey-
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/492/492

Not sure individual teams would be willing to shell out the $ for the system+upkeep

Was the research quoted by Chiarelli using weight as a predictor of success independent of height? Or was it a relationship between weight/height?
If you take time to make research on some of the discussions we've had in various forums on HF you'll find some very good stuff and good links. Tons of info.

Yeah I'm aware of that technology. In the NBA Houston and Dallas are at the forefront of this type of research. I know for sure the NHL or at least some of the companies they deal with use similar stuff. Not sure it's used extensively if at all by teams though.

NHL teams, for the most part, have all the money needed to make more advanced research. The will isn't really there outside of a few teams namely Vancouver, LA and to a certain extent San Jose, Pittsburgh, Boston and Washington. Then again, it's not like Vancouver and LA are full blown moneyball/Mavericks equivalents either.

Not to mention analysts who work for MLB teams, for example, are vastly underpaid for their qualification. Most do it for the fun or thrill of it. The cost of the technology itself is nothing compared to the millions of dollars a team could save by making better investments.

Well from what I recall Chiarelli was approached by a professor of biology I believe, in Chiarelli's days in Ottawa. The prof's research showed that weight was a better indication of the number of games a prospect would play in the NHL. Height had very little if any correlation to the number of games a player would play in the NHL.

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