As I mentioned, the take downs will come after he gets JDS hurt. In that sense, he's not relying on his wrestling. Cain isn't going to try to pull off his best Chael Sonnen impression in this fight. He's going to try to do what he always does - throw bombs, hurt the guy, GnP for the finish.
Cain's bread and butter is GNP and his endurance, not his stand-up. If Cain's plan is to only utilize his wrestling after he's already hurt JDS on his feet, then this fight is likely going to end in similar fashion as the first fight. Cain has good boxing, but he's not on the same level as JDS. If Cain wants to win this fight he needs to be aggressive with his boxing and takedown attempts to keep JDS guessing. If he intends to stand and trade with JDS in hopes of "hurting" him in order to get the takedown, then he hasn't learned anything. Watching/reading his interviews this doesn't appear to be his intention.
Last edited by Peter Griffin: 12-28-2012 at 01:48 PM.
Has Cain ever been in a boring fight? He has a 10-1 record (8-1 in the UFC) and has finished his opponent nine times. Including seven first round finishes.
If he gets JDS to the ground and is able to keep him there, it definitely won't be a boring fight. He's not going to sit in JDS' guard or take his time and try to work a submission. He'll start dropping bombs like he always does.
Not trying to imply Cain is boring. He is anything but that. Im a big fan. My thought was trying to figure out how Cain would be able to beat JDS. I think those who are counting on Cain being able to take JDS down and gn'p him are not very likely to happen based on past history.
Cain's bread and butter is GNP and his endurance, not his stand-up. If Cain's plan is to only utilize his wrestling after he's already hurt JDS on his feet, then this fight is likely going to end in similar fashion as the first fight.
Hopefully thats not his plan. But that's all he's going to be able to do.
Quote:
Cain has good boxing, but he's not on the same level as JDS. If Cain wants to win this fight he needs to be aggressive with his boxing and takedown attempts to keep JDS guessing. If he intends to stand and trade with JDS in hopes of "hurting" him in order to get the takedown, then he hasn't learned anything. Watching/reading his interviews this doesn't appear to be his intention.
I believe he will use aggressive boxing in order to eventually get to his favorite way to end the fight, sure.
But where do people come up with the notion that he's just going to be able to walk through enough JDS bombs to score a takedown. This isnt Benson wrestling down Diaz. We saw Cains pathetic attempt at a takedown last fight... he grabbed JDS uninjured leg, and still couldnt pull the guy down, or even get him off balance in the slightest.
JDS is stronger, a better boxer, and an overall more well-rounded MMAer. Cain is going to have to get in and out, and hopefully tag Cigano hard enough to be able to get the takedown. Going in with a focus on wrestling will have him laying flat on the mat after eating an uppercut. Even if Cain gets a clean takedown w/o JDS being hurt, I'm not sure he can hold him down long enough.
So, instead, we need to rely on Cain's TD stats against Rothwell, Kongo and Jeremiah Constant?
Or are you just mad that he kept giving stats you wanted, but you dont agree with them?
Why would we use Cain's td stats? IATL claims Cain can't take JDS down (based on one half-hearted attempt). I'm saying that's unproven. What does Cain's td stats have to do with it?
His stats are pointless. If you can't see that, that's your problem. Any true mma fan should know they mean next to nothing. If you think Frank Mir and Roy Nelson not being able to takedown JDS means Cain can't then I don't know what to tell you.
Why would we use Cain's td stats? IATL claims Cain can't take JDS down (based on one half-hearted attempt). I'm saying that's unproven. What does Cain's td stats have to do with it?
I was looking at the thread from their first fight just to see who most of us picked and I came across this post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor
Ive been riding the Dos Santos train ever since he made Werdum's neck fat wiggle. Im not hopping off now. That said the smart pick would be Cain imo. He is just so good on the ground and I dont think JDS will be able to stop his takedowns.
Personally, I didn't learn much from their first fight. Both guys were hurt and it ended before either one of them really did anything. JDS caught Cain behind the ear and it was done. IATL, you completely changed your original view based on one minute of fighting and one takedown attempt?
Why would we use Cain's td stats? IATL claims Cain can't take JDS down (based on one half-hearted attempt). I'm saying that's unproven. What does Cain's td stats have to do with it?
His stats are pointless. If you can't see that, that's your problem. Any true mma fan should know they mean next to nothing. If you think Frank Mir and Roy Nelson not being able to takedown JDS means Cain can't then I don't know what to tell you.
Your last sentence makes no sense but nice try.
lol... Alright, so I know what I'm dealing with here.
Main Card (PPV):
Heavyweight Championship Bout: Junior dos Santos (c) vs Cain Velasquez
Lightweight Bout: Joe Lauzon vs Jim Miller
Middleweight Bout: Tim Boetsch vs Costa Philippou
Middleweight Bout: Yushin Okami vs Alan Belcher
Middleweight Bout: Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson
Preliminary Card:
Bantamweight Bout: Brad Pickett vs Eddie Wineland
Bantamweight Bout: Erik Perez vs Byron Bloodworth
Lightweight Bout: Melvin Guillard vs Jamie Varner
Lightweight Bout: Michael Johnson vs Myles Jury
Heavyweight Bout: Phil De Fries vs Todd Duffee
Flyweight Bout: Chris Cariaso vs John Moraga
Featherweight Bout: Max Holloway vs Leonard Garcia
This should end up being a great card. I can see all these fights going either way, and the matchups should be exciting. Only lay and pray option would be Leben-Brunson, but I don't see it happening.
See you all tomorrow night.
(PM me if you need a feed).
Last edited by End of Line: 12-28-2012 at 07:45 PM.
I was looking at the thread from their first fight just to see who most of us picked and I came across this post:
Personally, I didn't learn much from their first fight. Both guys were hurt and it ended before either one of them really did anything. JDS caught Cain behind the ear and it was done. IATL, you completely changed your original view based on one minute of fighting and one takedown attempt?
Im usually wrong more often than right, and am ok admitting that, although JDS was my pick the first time around so technically I was right that time.
I didnt look at the stats when I made that comment. I was just going with my gut, as so many here are doing now. Which is fine. But dont call me an idiot for pointing out the fact Dos Santos has only been taken down twice in his entire ufc career. If you want to disregard that tidbit, then be my guest, just dont expect me to agree with "it is because I say so" type of argument.
Main Card (PPV):
Heavyweight Championship Bout: Junior dos Santos (c) vs Cain Velasquez
Lightweight Bout: Joe Lauzon vs Jim Miller
Middleweight Bout: Tim Boetsch vs Costa Philippou
Middleweight Bout: Yushin Okami vs Alan Belcher
Middleweight Bout: Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson
Preliminary Card:
Bantamweight Bout: Brad Pickett vs Eddie Wineland
Bantamweight Bout: Erik Perez vs Byron Bloodworth
Lightweight Bout: Melvin Guillard vs Jamie Varner
Lightweight Bout: Michael Johnson vs Myles Jury
Heavyweight Bout: Phil De Fries vs Todd Duffee
Featherweight Bout: Max Holloway vs Leonard Garcia
Flyweight Bout: Chris Cariaso vs John Moraga
Cain is a better wrestler than Brock. Hate to overstate something when our sample size is 1 engagement, but Cain stood up from under Brock almost immediately. I change my mind constantly on topics like this (so ask against next month), but I think nitpicking details between world class guys is silly. Cain, Brock and Carwin's wrestling ... GSP, Koscheck and Fitch wrestling ... Belfort, Leites or Maia in jiu jitsu ... they're all world class, so the differences between these fighters are down to athleticism and other skills, not the intricacies of their wrestling..
I hear ya, but I'd give Lesnar the edge in wrestling. Lesnar took Cain down in under a minute. That is very impressive. If Lesnar hadn't rushed the transition I stand by what I've said in the past which is that fight could've gone down entirely differently. Now Cain's cardio could mean for the entire duration of a fight he's the better wrestler because while I feel Lesnar is better at 100%, Cain is still near his peak well into the fight whereas Lesnar probably isn't. Carwin is a distant third as he just isn't explosive enough to effectively take guys down. And I understand some of it is nitpicking, but GSP is the clearly superior MMA wrestler of those three.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jw2
As I mentioned, the take downs will come after he gets JDS hurt. In that sense, he's not relying on his wrestling. Cain isn't going to try to pull off his best Chael Sonnen impression in this fight. He's going to try to do what he always does - throw bombs, hurt the guy, GnP for the finish.
This would be a huge mistake. The Sonnen approach is exactly what Cain should do. This strategy suggests that he needs to first outstrike the top striker in the division before using his wrestling. That would be a terrible idea.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jw2
So, instead, we need to rely on Cain's TD stats against Rothwell, Kongo and Jeremiah Constant?
Or are you just mad that he kept giving stats you wanted, but you dont agree with them?
JDS' takedown defense against Big Country and Mir has absolutely nothing to do with this fight. Both of those guys are terrible at taking guys down. Cain is the top wrestler in the UFC, so unless JDS stuffed repeated takedown attempts from Lesnar, then I still feel that Cain certainly has the ability to take him down. Cain is by far the best MMA wrestler JDS has faced, so that poses an interesting threat.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor
Not trying to imply Cain is boring. He is anything but that. Im a big fan. My thought was trying to figure out how Cain would be able to beat JDS. I think those who are counting on Cain being able to take JDS down and gn'p him are not very likely to happen based on past history.
The past history is largely irrelevant because the guys weren't at Cain's wrestling level. I love statistics, and probably use them as much as anyone when trying to articulate my point, but if Nelson and Mir couldn't take JDS down that doesn't tell me anything about what will happen in this fight. And sure JDS quickly disposed of Cain the first time around, but that was more getting caught than being stuffed repeatedly and forced to stand. We didn't get enough of a picture for anything conclusive in terms of how the rematch might play out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jw2
What's the line?
It'd roughly JDS -200 and Cain +170 depending on where exactly you look.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor
How come nobody is picking Cain anymore?
You're getting me all fired up here Liquor. Lol. I don't do the pick 'ems anymore but I'm gonna say Cain is able to use his wrestling, wear JDS down in the first, and finish him late in the 2nd via GnP.
You're getting me all fired up here Liquor. Lol. I don't do the pick 'ems anymore but I'm gonna say Cain is able to use his wrestling, wear JDS down in the first, and finish him late in the 2nd via GnP.
Main Card (PPV):
Heavyweight Championship Bout: Junior dos Santos (c) vs Cain Velasquez
Lightweight Bout: Joe Lauzon vs Jim Miller
Middleweight Bout: Tim Boetsch vs Costa Philippou
Middleweight Bout: Yushin Okami vs Alan Belcher
Middleweight Bout: Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson
Preliminary Card:
Bantamweight Bout: Brad Pickett vs Eddie Wineland
Bantamweight Bout: Erik Perez vs Byron Bloodworth
Lightweight Bout: Melvin Guillard vs Jamie Varner
Lightweight Bout: Michael Johnson vs Myles Jury
Heavyweight Bout: Phil De Fries vs Todd Duffee
Flyweight Bout: Chris Cariaso vs John Moraga
Featherweight Bout: Max Holloway vs Leonard Garcia
Lay out what you want to do, and I'll make sure it happens. As long as BDYKWL wants to do it.
Not a big deal, but if he/she wants, we can do a loser wears the avatar of the winner's choice for a week/month or whatever.
We can do it for the winner of the fight (Cain vs JDS) or an over/under on the amount of successful takedowns made by Cain. I would say 3 is a good number. If he gets more than three he/she wins, less than three I win, exactly three would be a push, no winner.
Not a big deal, but if he/she wants, we can do a loser wears the avatar of the winner's choice for a week/month or whatever.
We can do it for the winner of the fight (Cain vs JDS) or an over/under on the amount of successful takedowns made by Cain. I would say 3 is a good number. If he gets more than three he/she wins, less than three I win, exactly three would be a push, no winner.
