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2012-13 Lockout Discussion Part X: Is There Any Hope? Edition

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12-30-2012, 06:01 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by Zenith View Post
Can't trade MDZ right now. If Sauer was healthy, maybe, but as it stands, Stu Bickel is this team's #6 dman. Moving DZ destroys the Rangers defensive depth. Does anyone really want a pairing of Eminger-Bickel?
Get used to teams icing third pairings of similar quality.

On the contrary, I'd suggest now is the proper time to trade Del Zotto. Short season, top four can log more minutes.

Again, that's the reason Clark and Gorton have focused on building organizational depth on the blue line.

With a 60-65 million cap ceiling, there is no way the Rangers can retain all of their core pieces. Weigh who is more important at what position. Del Zotto is "expendable" (hes not really, and not ideally) because McDonagh and Staal, are both far more competent and both also need new contracts soon. Both play on the left side.

The alternative is to sacrifice a forward on top of Gaborik, like Stepan. Which opens a far bigger glaring hole in the lineup. No center in the organization can competently fill the #2 hole. They'd then need to go on the open market and overpay to fill that hole. Its counter intuitive.

Trading Del Zotto from a position of strength, you can get back a #2 RW. And then go on the market and fill the bottom pair with a vet stop gap short term.

McDonagh and Staal are in no way shape or form despensible. Or replaceable. Del Zotto's minutes are, although his role may not be easily, or I should say his offensive skill set isn't. But again, tough decisions need to be made. To be cap compliant now and long term.

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12-30-2012, 06:12 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
With a 60-65 million cap ceiling, there is no way the Rangers can retain all of their core pieces. Weigh who is more important at what position.
Yeah, I already demonstrated how it's possible to do exactly that. People gotta stop freaking out like the 4 expiring contracts we've got this coming offseason are UFAs. They aren't. McDonagh is arbitration eligible, but isn't going to get more on his second deal than Staal got on his. And if they don't eat a UFA year, it will be less. Stepan's second contract will be more like Dubinsky's than not.

The real question won't be for the 2013 offseason, but rather the year after.

Will Lundqvist take a paycut? Will the Rangers be able to retain Callahan and Girardi while either retaining Gaborik or adding another goal scorer? Bu we're a year away from that. It's not too early to stop planning for the future, but if the plan was to have a 2-year window with Nash and Gaborik, it's plenty possible to do that without sacrificing anything.

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12-30-2012, 06:14 PM
  #678
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Which of these players, all of whom need new contracts soon, are not more important than Del Zotto?

Lundqvist
McDonagh
Staal
Girardi
Callahan
Stepan
Kreider
Hagelin

Keep in mind Nash and Richards will be on the books for the foreseeable future.

3 of your six defensemen are #1A players. A 4th, Stralman, is above average.

The above players will take up what percentage of the salary cap? A full roster needs to be iced.

Core cap casualties. Gaborik and Del Zotto.

No other core players are expendable.

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12-30-2012, 06:19 PM
  #679
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
Which of these players, all of whom need new contracts soon, are not more important than Del Zotto?

Lundqvist
McDonagh
Staal
Girardi
Callahan
Stepan
Kreider
Hagelin

Keep in mind Nash and Richards will be on the books for the foreseeable future.

3 of your six defensemen are #1A players. A 4th, Stralman, is above average.

The above players will take up what percentage of the salary cap? A full roster needs to be iced.

Core cap casualties. Gaborik and Del Zotto.

No other core players are expendable.
Although I don't agree, one could argue that Hagelin is less valuable than Del Zotto. But Del Zotto is an important piece because if he can continue where he left off, he can become a great offensive two-way defenseman.

Imagine having Staal - Girardi and McDonagh - Del Zotto for the foreseeable future.

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12-30-2012, 06:20 PM
  #680
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Hagelin may or may not be more important. We will see.

Either Staal or Girardi are going to be cap casualties. I really don't think there's ever been any question about that. Trading Del Zotto won't change that. You can't have a team with 3 defensemen each making $5m+.

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12-30-2012, 06:20 PM
  #681
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
Yeah, I already demonstrated how it's possible to do exactly that. People gotta stop freaking out like the 4 expiring contracts we've got this coming offseason are UFAs. They aren't. McDonagh is arbitration eligible, but isn't going to get more on his second deal than Staal got on his third one. Stepan's second contract will be more like Dubinsky's than not.

The real question won't be for the 2013 offseason, but rather the year after.

Will Lundqvist take a paycut? Will the Rangers be able to retain Callahan and Girardi while either retaining Gaborik or adding another goal scorer? Bu we're a year away from that. It's not too early to stop planning for the future, but if the plan was to have a 2-year window with Nash and Gaborik, it's plenty possible to do that without sacrificing anything.
Most of the roster needs to be retained. In a fantasy world its doable while icing a full roster. You think players are going to take pay cuts?

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12-30-2012, 06:22 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by Callys Chicken Parm View Post
Although I don't agree, one could argue that Hagelin is less valuable than Del Zotto. But Del Zotto is an important piece because if he can continue where he left off, he can become a great offensive two-way defenseman.

Imagine having Staal - Girardi and McDonagh - Del Zotto for the foreseeable future.
I can imagine it. With a 70 million cap ceiling.

Not with a 60 million cap ceiling.

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12-30-2012, 06:23 PM
  #683
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
I can imagine it. With a 70 million cap ceiling.

Not with a 60 million cap ceiling.
Yes, but I doubt the PA will settle on that. I expect common ground to be met at 65 million or so. If the players are willing to take a bit less to win, 65 million should be enough to retain them.

Although that would be a fantasy land. Nothing is more important than the money.

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12-30-2012, 06:25 PM
  #684
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
Most of the roster needs to be retained. In a fantasy world its doable while icing a full roster. You think players are going to take pay cuts?
I'm talking about for next year and I still iced a full roster. Again, the plan was for the 2-year window. Maybe the team is unsustainable in the long-term under the cap. But ask Blackhawk fans if that kind of situation is worth it. They went through a season with that knowledge in 09-10. We're going to get two (provided they settle here)

The only two players I'd expect to see take paycuts are Lundqvist and Gaborik. Lundqvist because his deal is exorbitant in the market for goaltenders and Gaborik because no one wants the risk at that price.

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12-30-2012, 06:41 PM
  #685
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In two years.

FORWARDS
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Ryan Callahan ($5.400m)
Chris Kreider ($2.500m) / Derek Stepan ($2.500m) / Marian Gaborik ($6.000m)
Carl Hagelin ($1.700m) / J.T. Miller ($1.244m) / Christian Thomas ($0.970m)
Kyle Jean ($0.925m) / Oscar Lindberg ($0.760m) / Jesper Fasth ($0.900m)
Andrew Yogan ($0.800m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Ryan McDonagh ($3.500m) / Anton Stralman ($2.000m)
Michael Del Zotto ($2.500m) / Dylan McIlrath ($1.295m)
Stu Bickel ($1.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.000m)
Backup Goalie ($1.000m)

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $65,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,935,833; BONUSES: $1,372,500
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $64,167


Again, the youngsters are placeholders, not predictions on who will be on the roster. They could be vets, they could actually be the guys I put on there.

Edit: of course, the Cap could go down. I don't think anyone can accurately predict what's going to happen to revenues in the 13-14 season.


Last edited by Tawnos: 12-30-2012 at 06:50 PM.
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12-30-2012, 06:47 PM
  #686
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The draft and player development will become even more important than it already is. To succeed long term and be competitive year after year it becomes essential to have a steady supply of young and cheap talent to plug in yearly. Fortunately, player development is one of the organizations strengths.

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12-30-2012, 06:47 PM
  #687
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Tawnos, is that $65 million number something that's been rumored or is it a guess?

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12-30-2012, 06:49 PM
  #688
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Tawnos, is that $65 million number something that's been rumored or is it a guess?
It's a guess. Considering the fact that it'd be 70 this year and the NHL wants to drop it down to 60 for the year after, it is easy to assume they will find a middle ground of around 65 million.

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12-30-2012, 06:50 PM
  #689
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"@garylawless: Lots of ?s about jan 12 start date. Just checked with NHL and they confirmed season could open Jan 12 if deal is done by thursday #nhl #bn"

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12-30-2012, 06:53 PM
  #690
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RGY View Post
Tawnos, is that $65 million number something that's been rumored or is it a guess?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Callys Chicken Parm View Post
It's a guess. Considering the fact that it'd be 70 this year and the NHL wants to drop it down to 60 for the year after, it is easy to assume they will find a middle ground of around 65 million.
It's not really a rumor or a guess. It's an estimation based on what the league projected as revenue growth. For the cap to be $65m in 2014-15, revenue would have to be about 3.4-3.5b in 13-14. I'm not talking about next year's team, but the year after.

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12-30-2012, 06:54 PM
  #691
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The draft and player development will become even more important than it already is. To succeed long term and be competitive year after year it becomes essential to have a steady supply of young and cheap talent to plug in yearly. Fortunately, player development is one of the organizations strengths.
Very, very on point. And here is the thing that pisses me off the most. Because THIS lockout is all about the smaller market teams. Those smaller market teams have not been as profitable. A lot of those same teams are ones that are not playoff teams. They then get the better draft picks, however, through either bad scouting or bad development or both, they continue to faulter, the team never thrives to attract fans, they don't make money. It is a trickle down effect. The talent pool has thinned out because of the 30 teams. And the smaller market teams don't put the right money or enough money into player development. Its stupid. We'll have another lockout in 8 years if contraction doesn't happen

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12-30-2012, 06:58 PM
  #692
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Very, very on point. And here is the thing that pisses me off the most. Because THIS lockout is all about the smaller market teams. Those smaller market teams have not been as profitable. A lot of those same teams are ones that are not playoff teams. They then get the better draft picks, however, through either bad scouting or bad development or both, they continue to faulter, the team never thrives to attract fans, they don't make money. It is a trickle down effect. The talent pool has thinned out because of the 30 teams. And the smaller market teams don't put the right money or enough money into player development. Its stupid. We'll have another lockout in 8 years if contraction doesn't happen
I think that's some of what the proposed Industry Growth Fund would address, along with the minimum in health and locker room standards.

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12-30-2012, 08:03 PM
  #693
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"@garylawless: Lots of ?s about jan 12 start date. Just checked with NHL and they confirmed season could open Jan 12 if deal is done by thursday #nhl #bn"
My b-day

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12-30-2012, 08:06 PM
  #694
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gary lawless ‏@garylawless

Keep hearing from players side 60 mil cap is biggest issue. They also want 7 or 8 year term limit and an opener after 7 or 8 years.

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12-30-2012, 08:13 PM
  #695
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gary lawless ‏@garylawless

Keep hearing from players side 60 mil cap is biggest issue. They also want 7 or 8 year term limit and an opener after 7 or 8 years.
63 million and 7 years. Drop the puck

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12-30-2012, 08:19 PM
  #696
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"We're going to find out how bad the NHL wants a season," said a union source.

http://dlvr.it/2k0kpH

I still see the union pushing hard at the league one more time

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12-30-2012, 08:47 PM
  #697
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Oh nice. At the same time will we ever see how bad the players want a season?

Cause at this point it seems like most of the owners want it more.

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12-30-2012, 08:51 PM
  #698
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I wonder if the players still file the disclaimer of interest on Wednesday if things are going badly. Don't they have to vote again if they don't do it by the 2nd?

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12-30-2012, 08:53 PM
  #699
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If they file, it's pointless for the talks and it's just show.

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12-30-2012, 09:04 PM
  #700
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63 million and 7 years. Drop the puck
65M cap.

Let the NHL have the contract limits. How many people are you really fighting for with 7+ year deals?

Better to counter with a cap increase, then drop the puck.

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