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Did the 2011 draft hurt us more than anything else?

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Old
01-01-2013, 12:44 PM
  #51
Stephen
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Originally Posted by John-Eric Iannicello View Post
I see a few posters saying it didn't make sense to take him now that we have Rielly and Finn. A pretty silly argument. If anything, the stockpiling of defensive prospects may allow the Leafs to deal for a forward (or forward prospect). It`s not a bad thing to stockpile assets in a certain position..not that it`s the Leafs plan, it just seemed to unfold that way. If the draft is BPA, then Leafs had Finn (specifically) fall into their lap last year based off where they had him ranked. They didn`t know who they were going to pick a year prior to the draft. Just like many around here didn`t assume the Leafs would be taking Morgan Rielly at 5 (and thought for sure the Leafs, needing a skilled center, would have selected one).
I actually hate the stockpiling philosophy because given what was available, and what we need, we could have just used our immense scouting staff or whatever Burke has built up to draft a player who better suits long term needs instead of hoping to correct the imbalance at a later date hoping to get fair trade value after you've already spent time developing a kid.

If you're looking at another Aulie for Ashton deal, the effectiveness of that kind of trade can be debated.

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01-01-2013, 01:08 PM
  #52
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The draft didn't hurt us.
The trades leading up to that one did, the trade that had us give up Hamilton and Seguin.

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01-01-2013, 01:24 PM
  #53
Joey Hoser
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Originally Posted by hero View Post
The draft didn't hurt us.
The trades leading up to that one did, the trade that had us give up Hamilton and Seguin.
You could argue that it may in the future, but that trade hasn't hurt us in the slightest.

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01-01-2013, 02:33 PM
  #54
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power forwards are hard to come by, players who score a lot in junior are a dime a dozen. The Tyler Biggs pick was a very good pick,

saying this i didn't really want Percy but he is a very good defenseman, just because they aren't on team canada doesn't mean there not that good... and imo biggs woulda made team canada.

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01-01-2013, 02:37 PM
  #55
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Burke actually traded up to get Percy and get Biggs at 25 (http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/80...hl-draft-table), but Morrison advised him that several teams were eyeing Biggs and that he would most likely be gone by the 25th pick. Detroit was likely one of them considering they traded out of the first round immediately afterwards. Burke said he 'would've been sick' if he didn't get Percy.

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01-01-2013, 03:08 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pooleboy View Post
power forwards are hard to come by, players who score a lot in junior are a dime a dozen. The Tyler Biggs pick was a very good pick,

saying this i didn't really want Percy but he is a very good defenseman, just because they aren't on team canada doesn't mean there not that good... and imo biggs woulda made team canada.
I dont believe that Biggs would have made team canada he would have to beat out someone like Danault, Ritchie, Camara, Lipon, or Mackinnon all those players are playing at a higher level then Biggs is this year in the CHL. and he's not a better defensive player or more physically dominant to some of those guys ethier.

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01-01-2013, 03:15 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by leugangen View Post
A lot of people point to the Kessel trade when talking about the team's future, but I look at the 2011 draft and think about how much better our future could be if we had made a few different decisions.

Let's take a look:

We held picks 25 (Percy), 30 (Rakell), and 39 (Gibson). We traded 30 and 39 for 22 (Biggs).

So we ended up with:

Tyler Biggs

and gave up:

Richard Rakell
John Gibson

That is without considering these other players we could have taken:

Brandon Saad
Boone Jenner
Ty Rattie
Tomas Jurco


Hindsight is always 20/20. I still like Biggs and Percy, but I think this draft hurt us a lot more than people point to.

I am sad.
goalies are tricky but I would definitely take rakell over bigs so thats kinda sad.

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01-01-2013, 04:36 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by hero View Post
The draft didn't hurt us.
The trades leading up to that one did, the trade that had us give up Hamilton and Seguin.
Let's say Burke had originally traded Tomas Kaberle & their 1st round pick 7th overall in 2009 for Phil Kessel, is Toronto a contender right now? It's a given they would have selected Seguin if they had the 2nd overall pick in 2010, however what are the chances they select Dougie Hamilton 9th overall in 2011? The reason I say that is some people say he should have been a top 5 pick that year, so why did he fall to 9th overall?

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01-01-2013, 04:44 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by -DeMo- View Post
I dont believe that Biggs would have made team canada he would have to beat out someone like Danault, Ritchie, Camara, Lipon, or Mackinnon all those players are playing at a higher level then Biggs is this year in the CHL. and he's not a better defensive player or more physically dominant to some of those guys ethier.
He's more physically dominant than all of those guys. Camara might be the only one you could make an argument for. That said I agree, he probably wouldn't have made Team Canada.

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01-01-2013, 04:48 PM
  #60
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Way too early to tell, no way people can say they were terrible picks until they actually play in the NHL.

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01-01-2013, 05:08 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by pooleboy View Post
power forwards are hard to come by, players who score a lot in junior are a dime a dozen. The Tyler Biggs pick was a very good pick,

saying this i didn't really want Percy but he is a very good defenseman, just because they aren't on team canada doesn't mean there not that good... and imo biggs woulda made team canada.
Biggs would have not been taken....Tom Wilson would have made the team over Biggs as he plays a similar game....but much more effective.

Also high scoring Jr players are a dime a dozen.....well tell Burke to buy a dozen now please!

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01-01-2013, 05:32 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by gmjohnny View Post
What about Brett Ritchie? He was in the same draft and is an even better power forward with 1st or 2nd line potential. Biggs is looking more and more like a 3rd to 4th line guy. I hated the trade at the time, Percy was also ranked between 40th and 50th depending. Big forwards were a priority and we could have had Saad, Ritchie, Jenner, or who knows, Biggs may have even been there at 25. Poor judgement by Burke
Biggs wasn't gonna be there at 25, Burke knew that so he did what he could to get him.

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01-01-2013, 06:22 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
I actually hate the stockpiling philosophy because given what was available, and what we need, we could have just used our immense scouting staff or whatever Burke has built up to draft a player who better suits long term needs instead of hoping to correct the imbalance at a later date hoping to get fair trade value after you've already spent time developing a kid.

If you're looking at another Aulie for Ashton deal, the effectiveness of that kind of trade can be debated.
What we need is irrelevant when drafting that late, to a degree, as most players in that range aren't expected to make an impact for a few years down the line - if at all. Drafting in the top 15, then I'd be more inclined to go with current team need. If the Leafs thought Biggs/Percy were that much better than what's on the board - then that's all that matters at the time (have to trust the scouts or else there's little need for us fans to focus on the draft from a Leafs POV).

I'm not saying they intentionally stockpiled those positions, but it just seemed to shake out that way so use it to your advantage. If they have a chance to land a defenseman who projects as a top-four vs. a forward who projects as a 3rd liner or bottom-six I'm not taking the forward just because the current team need is one. I'd like to think/hope the Leafs would correct the forward situation sooner rather than have to wait 3-4 years for that drafted 18 year old to fix the situation.

As for the Aulie/Ashton deal I think a lot of people were excited at the time. Of course it can be debated, any deal can. The same stockpiling of a certain position worked in our favour with Beauchemin. Because of the depth at D both on the team and in the system it allowed the Leafs to move a player off the roster to bolster another area of need. We may see a similar move here when it comes to the depth as they seem to have a fair bit of depth (in numbers, if anything) on D at the moment. Not just in prospects, but NHL players on the roster and some names like Kostka/Fraser/Ranger who may provide some solid depth minutes (potentially). Whether it be the magnitude of Aulie/Ashton, or Beauchemin trade isn't the point, the point is that it gives them options to make those moves if need be.

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01-01-2013, 07:11 PM
  #64
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This topic may be relevant 2-3 years from now when we can better see the development of these players. But for right now...

Biggs was definitely a "solid" pick but like the OP and others have mentioned high skilled players like Jenner, Rattie, Ritchie are hard to overlook. The problem is that Biggs isn't that flashy, high profile scorer that gets people excited about in a 1st round pick. With the time it takes for a power forward to develop, drafting a projected 3rd liner in the 1st round will easily make people think passing on the skill we did is automatically a questionable move. But with that being said, finding GOOD bottom six players is vital to the success of any hockey team, and that's what I think Burke/Morrison felt they needed most.

It was also clear Percy was extremely high on the Leafs list being the local Mississauga player he is. He was a solid pick at the time and as a previous poster mentioned, Burke stated "I would have been sick if we didn't get Percy. You're chewing your fingernails and waiting". No doubt a steady and reliable D who's progress will be closely tracked in the coming years. Would he have slipped into the 2nd round? That we'll never know. But had we stayed put, would Biggs have fallen to 25?

The two picks were solid at the time based on what they are projected to be. We just didn't go for the home run picks that could be Puempel, Rattie, Jenner, Ritchie, or Gibson. All of them could easily hit their potential, while all of them may never play in the show. What does this prove? The draft is a crapshoot.

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01-01-2013, 07:40 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leugangen View Post
A lot of people point to the Kessel trade when talking about the team's future, but I look at the 2011 draft and think about how much better our future could be if we had made a few different decisions.

Let's take a look:

We held picks 25 (Percy), 30 (Rakell), and 39 (Gibson). We traded 30 and 39 for 22 (Biggs).

So we ended up with:

Tyler Biggs

and gave up:

Richard Rakell
John Gibson

That is without considering these other players we could have taken:

Brandon Saad
Boone Jenner
Ty Rattie
Tomas Jurco


Hindsight is always 20/20. I still like Biggs and Percy, but I think this draft hurt us a lot more than people point to.

I am sad.
Hindsight is 20/20

IMO putting Saad with the group is a bit dishonest ,, His stock was plummetting that day and everyone passed him up including the Hawks (Twice)

Reality is that its too early to tell how draft will turn out as for instance with Hawks Saad is closest to NHL (Already having played several games) while Danault has risen up prospect rankings

Meanwhile McNeill the 18th overall though not a bad prospect has fallen behind Danault/Saad since

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01-01-2013, 07:57 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
I dont really see Biggs as being risky at all, actually. He already possesses the physical tools to play in the NHL, which means at worst weve got a big physical 3rd/4th liner to bang and smash. Now that may not seem like much, but its something we dont have and havent had a good one in a few years.

Hes FAR away from a boom or bust player IMO.
I agree that he's not a boom or bust player. He's going to find a place in the NHL somewhere.

The risk is that he's so unlikely to actually reach the peak of the expectations, and he very likely to fall way short.

I liked the pick when it was made, and I still like it now, but he's still likely to land in the bottom-6 of most line-ups.

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01-01-2013, 09:34 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
The draft is always a crap-shoot. My targets in 2011 were Saad and Rattie.

I wasn't terribly upset with the Biggs and Percy picks, at that time they were the safest two prospects with late 1st round picks.

Bigger power forwards (Like Biggs) take time to develop. If anyone watched many US games at the World Juniors they'd know that Biggs has played the game he was brought in to play. He's playing a big physical game, he's being gritty in the corners and using his size and speed to intimidate.

He has the skill to eventually develop into a solid 2nd line winger; however, he'll probably end up being a decent 3rd liner at the NHL level. Biggs might not be the most talented player taken in the late 1st/early 2nd round (in 2011), but he was a safe pick, and safe isn't always a bad thing.
Very good point.

Two examples are Bertuzzi and Neely.

In hindsight, these trades were archi-terrible.

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01-01-2013, 09:59 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Hes the only one who has the right to comment? I liked both picks and still do. Why cant I comment?



I dont see how Biggs is looking more and more like third or fourth liner. Hes exceeding all offensive predictions by so called "experts" this season.

If theres one thing the WJC has proven, its that its a terrible indication of the calibre of NHL career the player will have.
See: Chris Didomenico

Dude is playing in Italy now after getting 7 points in 6 games on the '09 team?!?!?!?!?

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01-01-2013, 10:39 PM
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The question is not really about who the Leafs drafted or did not draft. That is, as many have said a bit if a crapshoot. As many also have said, we won't know for a couple of years yet how the players w are discussing will turn out. (My preliminary guess is that the Leaf picks will not be the best possible but they both may turn out to be bottom half of a team NHL contributors. But that remains guesswork. )

The real question is about asset management, as at least two people have said. In a draft with a top tier and then thirty or forty very similarly rated players, is trading #30 and #39 to move up to 22 good management? If the draft is aptly described with some gambling metaphor, it is better to have two very slightly worse chances than only one slightly better chance.

There was a TSN study that showed late first rounders become NHL regulars (a 200 game career was the criterion IIRC) at a little over 20% rate. For the sake of argument, say the 22nd pick hits at a 25% rate, pick 30 at 22% and 30 at 20%, it is manifestly better to have the two picks. In fact, the difference is negligible among picks in that range, so the argument for keeping the picks is, if anything, stronger than my hypothetical numbers.

You would have to be very confident that an asset obtainable with the higher pick was significantly undervalued to make the trade worthwhile. Presumably, that is exactly what Burke and company thought about Biggs. It may turn out to be a good move, but the preliminary returns are not promising.

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01-01-2013, 10:46 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by John-Eric Iannicello View Post
What we need is irrelevant when drafting that late, to a degree, as most players in that range aren't expected to make an impact for a few years down the line - if at all. Drafting in the top 15, then I'd be more inclined to go with current team need. If the Leafs thought Biggs/Percy were that much better than what's on the board - then that's all that matters at the time (have to trust the scouts or else there's little need for us fans to focus on the draft from a Leafs POV).
I can't put my finger on it, but there's something annoying about Dave Morrison and the way the Leafs run the draft that's been bugging me since at least 2007. There's this tendency for them to burn a ton of picks on these medium to low skilled CHL guys who have 3rd/4th line-ish, 2nd pairing potential guys while largely ignoring the European department and those smallish, highly skilled forwards that can really bolster an organization. I wish we could have less Percy, Ryan, Mitchell, Ross, Devane, Broll, Leivo, McKegg type low pay off picks picks and focus more on those Tatar, Nyquist, Silfverberg gems that fall through the cracks. We never seem to hit on those types of high reward type players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John-Eric Iannicello View Post
I'm not saying they intentionally stockpiled those positions, but it just seemed to shake out that way so use it to your advantage. If they have a chance to land a defenseman who projects as a top-four vs. a forward who projects as a 3rd liner or bottom-six I'm not taking the forward just because the current team need is one. I'd like to think/hope the Leafs would correct the forward situation sooner rather than have to wait 3-4 years for that drafted 18 year old to fix the situation.
I think the Leafs draft unimaginatively for the most part. Especially outside of the first round, they just kind of go and pick guys who get filed away under the 'roll player' folder. They have a guy like Thommie Bergmann who has dug up guys like Modin, Kaberle, Berezin, Gunnarsson, Rask, Gunnarsson, Kulemin in the past. It would be nice to see them use that voice more than whomever's targeting these no payoff CHL guys.

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01-01-2013, 11:18 PM
  #71
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imo it's time to change our scouting staff lets be honest we drafted and developed Schenn(5th overall who was already NHL ready), Carl Gunnersson, Matt Frattin and Dale Mitchell since 2007 draft. thats 4 of the last 43 draft picks. yes I know some of those are two early but only really Kadri is knocking on the door besides Rielly who it's pretty hard to screw up 5th overall.

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01-01-2013, 11:29 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by -DeMo- View Post
imo it's time to change our scouting staff lets be honest we drafted and developed Schenn(5th overall who was already NHL ready), Carl Gunnersson, Matt Frattin and Dale Mitchell since 2007 draft. thats 4 of the last 43 draft picks. yes I know some of those are two early but only really Kadri is knocking on the door besides Rielly who it's pretty hard to screw up 5th overall.
They also developped Anton Stralman, Alex Steen, Matt Stajan, Carlo Colaiacovo, James Reimer, Nik Kulemin, Ian White and to a lesser extent Jiri Tlusty. All of which are still finding work in the NHL. (Prob more also as these were off the top of my head.

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01-01-2013, 11:30 PM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
The draft is always a crap-shoot. My targets in 2011 were Saad and Rattie.

I wasn't terribly upset with the Biggs and Percy picks, at that time they were the safest two prospects with late 1st round picks.

Bigger power forwards (Like Biggs) take time to develop. If anyone watched many US games at the World Juniors they'd know that Biggs has played the game he was brought in to play. He's playing a big physical game, he's being gritty in the corners and using his size and speed to intimidate.

He has the skill to eventually develop into a solid 2nd line winger; however, he'll probably end up being a decent 3rd liner at the NHL level. Biggs might not be the most talented player taken in the late 1st/early 2nd round (in 2011), but he was a safe pick, and safe isn't always a bad thing.
bang on... word for word.

I was hoping for Puemple and Rattie myself...

either way, i'm happy to have Biggs and hope Percy develops into a less hitting Adam Foote type of defensive dman.

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01-01-2013, 11:32 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by -DeMo- View Post
imo it's time to change our scouting staff lets be honest we drafted and developed Schenn(5th overall who was already NHL ready), Carl Gunnersson, Matt Frattin and Dale Mitchell since 2007 draft. thats 4 of the last 43 draft picks. yes I know some of those are two early but only really Kadri is knocking on the door besides Rielly who it's pretty hard to screw up 5th overall.
2007 is a convenient cut off date.

Of the 2006 draft 5 of 7 have played atleast 2 NHL games. With Holzer(NHL ready) being the 2gp player and our good buddy Komarov who is also NHL ready being #7 of the 7 players drafted.

That is a pretty good draft, and shows the need to give players time. 6 of 7 would be an impressive draft. Just got to get the NHL back and playing.

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01-01-2013, 11:32 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystifo View Post
They also developped Anton Stralman, Alex Steen, Matt Stajan, Carlo Colaiacovo, James Reimer, Nik Kulemin, Ian White and to a lesser extent Jiri Tlusty. All of which are still finding work in the NHL. (Prob more also as these were off the top of my head.
those are all pre-2007

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