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The Luongo Thread - "Make it stop, make it stop!"

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01-02-2013, 01:24 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by Kid_Roll View Post
I feel like people should say "I doubt [insert players name] will be moved for Luongo" instead of making 100% guaranteed statements. I always get a bit of a laugh since in so many trades that eventually do happen, many times it involves players the fan base could have sworn would "never" have been traded for said player.

Is it highly unlikely Gardiner or Reilly would be traded for Luongo? Probably. But not many people saw Joe Thornton going for Sturm, Primeau and Stuart. From the outside looking in, it's hard to know what is motivating a GM.
Hell, I remember saying "Luongo won't be moved to Toronto"...how's that turning out for me

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01-02-2013, 01:25 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Not to mince words, but this is TOR's best shot to make the post-season. A shortened season is perfect for them. Over the long-haul, the cracks started to show and they couldn't keep pace. Over a shortened season, they can rely on bursts of good offense to rack up points. Match that with good-great goaltending, and they don't have a better shot than this year IMO.



It's all in how you see their team performing given the new parameters. I think they'll do better, especially with Carlyle behind the bench. TOR fans fear that they will do worse. Can't blame them, but I think it's an inaccurate assessment. They were right there over 50 games, then the wheels fell off.
It's too hard to predict what a short season will mean to any team. If what you say is true, then TO should make the playoffs without Lu. Even if they do, it is unlikely that Lu will take them to the promised land (he couldn't even do that with Van), I still think it is better for them to evaluate their goalies this year and hang on to their prospects and 1st pick. Next year, there will be a better pick of goalies on the ufa market.

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01-02-2013, 01:27 PM
  #678
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The 48 game year is my main bone of contention. That and the possible 60 mil cap. I would still make a decent offer, i'd just rather run with what we have in a short season. It's not a knock on Luongo at all. I would like to see the landscape of who becomes available if the cap drops. Again, you seem angry because i have changed my mind. The Leafs are not the only option for trade.

Nope...i nor anyone else know anything for fact. My apologies, i should have said i doubt.

The slow start "crap" as you put it comes directly from Canuck fans.



It's still crap, from Canucks fans or not. A Canuck fan would have to point out when the team looked great coming out of the gate and Luongo alone struggled. So far, it's been the entire team coming out weak and Luongo being saddled with the blame.



60m cap = irrelevant. Did you not hear that the PA is pushing for 67m given a 10 year term agreement on the CBA? This is far from decided. Not to mention what it would actually mean when a goalie, who has an artificially deflated cap hit, is used under a tighter cap --> Wouldn't that be a good thing?



You have flip-flopped, that's my reason for taking issue with your current stance. As long as we both recognize it as such, no big deal. I do understand the leafs are not the only option. In fact, FLA is looking much more attractive given the restrictions they are looking to put on rookie bonuses not counting against the cap. Opens up room for them. So we'll see what we see.



Guess we won't be seeing you around here then?

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01-02-2013, 01:37 PM
  #679
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Originally Posted by blendini View Post
It's too hard to predict what a short season will mean to any team. If what you say is true, then TO should make the playoffs without Lu. Even if they do, it is unlikely that Lu will take them to the promised land (he couldn't even do that with Van), I still think it is better for them to evaluate their goalies this year and hang on to their prospects and 1st pick. Next year, there will be a better pick of goalies on the ufa market.


You're right, it's too hard to predict a shorter season. Then again, I have trouble predicting the actual breaks over a full 82 game season, so it's the same for me either way.



Point is, a large change in the cap is necessary for teams to shake loose their starters. If we take the median number of 64m (60m low end, 67m high end), then that's one, maybe two high end players moving from each team max. The rest will be depth. Do you think a starter level goalie shakes loose and the leafs are able to capitalize given that framework? Who would it be? Howard from DET? What's Smith outside of PHX? Backstrom from MIN? Of the options, only Howard would seem like a fix, and it's likely both Howard and Smith stay with their respective clubs.



Backstrom is likely the prime candidate, let's see if TOR is able to snag him in FA.

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01-02-2013, 01:49 PM
  #680
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Backstrom is likely the prime candidate, let's see if TOR is able to snag him in FA.
IF he makes it to FA. Harding has some health issues. I think Min either keeps Backstrom or trades him.

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01-02-2013, 01:52 PM
  #681
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No, because he is just that terrible at evaluating goalie talent and paying the price for it.
While BB track record isn't great at acquiring goalies, it's a completely useless oversimplification to say he can't "evaluate" them. That isn't why he hasn't traded for Luongo.

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01-02-2013, 02:01 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by craigcaulks View Post
While BB track record isn't great at acquiring goalies, it's a completely useless oversimplification to say he can't "evaluate" them. That isn't why he hasn't traded for Luongo.



It's not the whole reason, but it is definitely a factor. BB's record speaks for itself in that department. Should we trot out the failed "goalies of the future" for this to turn from a "useless oversimplification" into something more meaningful to you?



I'm saying based on his history at failed acquisitions in net, he can't properly evaluate goalies. What do you have to say that he can?

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01-02-2013, 02:15 PM
  #683
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
It's not the whole reason, but it is definitely a factor. BB's record speaks for itself in that department. Should we trot out the failed "goalies of the future" for this to turn from a "useless oversimplification" into something more meaningful to you?



I'm saying based on his history at failed acquisitions in net, he can't properly evaluate goalies. What do you have to say that he can?



That's why the organization has Nonis. Nonis has made deals for the Leafs, and Burke gives him credit for the deals. With Gillis and Burke not being the best friends, I won't be surprised if it is Nonis that is doing most of the talking and negotiations.

A Goalie like Luongo is also a lot safer of a bet than signing a guy like Gustavsson, even though Burke hope for the same success he had with Hiller.

The Leafs will use the 'brain trust' to make a collective deal, if one is made of course.

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01-02-2013, 02:20 PM
  #684
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Originally Posted by Singh66 View Post
[/B]

That's why the organization has Nonis. Nonis has made deals for the Leafs, and Burke gives him credit for the deals. With Gillis and Burke not being the best friends, I won't be surprised if it is Nonis that is doing most of the talking and negotiations.

A Goalie like Luongo is also a lot safer of a bet than signing a guy like Gustavsson, even though Burke hope for the same success he had with Hiller.

The Leafs will use the 'brain trust' to make a collective deal, if one is made of course.


Nonis is about the only saving grace Burke has. Nonis is a huge Luongo backer. So much so that I suspect that it is him driving the bus in talks behind the scenes. It may be Burke negotiating, but it's likely Nonis pushing him in this direction. Without him, I don't think Burke gives VAN a second thought.



Very good point about the brain trust taking things over. Nonis changed the make-up of the Canucks with Luongo at the centre. He knows the impact he can have. As a result, there's no one better to evaluate what exactly to give up for Luongo than Nonis.

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01-02-2013, 03:08 PM
  #685
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Nonis is about the only saving grace Burke has. Nonis is a huge Luongo backer. So much so that I suspect that it is him driving the bus in talks behind the scenes. It may be Burke negotiating, but it's likely Nonis pushing him in this direction. Without him, I don't think Burke gives VAN a second thought.



Very good point about the brain trust taking things over. Nonis changed the make-up of the Canucks with Luongo at the centre. He knows the impact he can have. As a result, there's no one better to evaluate what exactly to give up for Luongo than Nonis.
If Nonis is really the brain trust of the deal then we may get what majority of fans are seeking for. Lots of people would say we won the Luongo deal w/ Big Bert going the other way. Had Bert not done what he did in doubt in my mind that was a fair trade.

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01-02-2013, 03:17 PM
  #686
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Originally Posted by The Kassian Train View Post
If Nonis is really the brain trust of the deal then we may get what majority of fans are seeking for. Lots of people would say we won the Luongo deal w/ Big Bert going the other way. Had Bert not done what he did in doubt in my mind that was a fair trade.
Good point. Nonis fundamentally changed our team from the ground up trading in our (presumably) future starter in Auld, a former first round pick that was absolutely living up to his potential at the time in Allen, and a superstar power forward in Bertuzzi, who granted had some baggage, or otherwise wouldn't have been moved IMO.

Now I'm not saying that Nonis would match this kind of offer, but as TKT and Bleach are saying, Nonis knows what Luongo can do for a franchise that needs him. He came here on a figurative white horse and pulled a non-playoff team that couldn't score and was average defensively and powered us into the 2nd round of the playoffs, where we were eliminated by Ryan, Getzlaf, Perry, Pronger, Niedermayer, Beauchemin and the rest of the Ducks.

I find fault in nearly everything Nonis and Burke did wrong here, but whether or not Nonis spearheaded the deal, I believe he didn't and was simply a passenger in this trade, he had the balls to pull the trigger. What does this mean for his impact on Toronto's roster if a trade goes through? Who knows. But if Nonis is involved, I'd say he will do more then gently coax Burke into negotiations.

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01-02-2013, 04:43 PM
  #687
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That seems like revisionist history to me.

Sure Nonis stepped up and traded what it took to get Luongo but Auld was an almost serviceable NHL goaltender, Allen played up to his potential but it was nowhere near what it had once been as he missed tons of development time with injuries including an entire season iirc - even before that I thought he was a huge step down from Stuart at #3 in that draft. As for Bertuzzi, you can call him "a superstar.. with some baggage" but he was in the process of playing his way off the team for sure.. those ppg+ seasons were two years in the rearview mirror and counting at that point, nevermind the "baggage."

If Mike Keenan had sold Luongo for close to his true worth rather than deciding to cut him loose after a tense contract negotiation and immediately acting on his years old boner for Bert, I doubt Nonis would have had the stones to pull the trigger on a deal as big as it would have taken.

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01-02-2013, 05:02 PM
  #688
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
That seems like revisionist history to me.

Sure Nonis stepped up and traded what it took to get Luongo but Auld was an almost serviceable NHL goaltender, Allen played up to his potential but it was nowhere near what it had once been as he missed tons of development time with injuries including an entire season iirc - even before that I thought he was a huge step down from Stuart at #3 in that draft. As for Bertuzzi, you can call him "a superstar.. with some baggage" but he was in the process of playing his way off the team for sure.. those ppg+ seasons were two years in the rearview mirror and counting at that point, nevermind the "baggage."

If Mike Keenan had sold Luongo for close to his true worth rather than deciding to cut him loose after a tense contract negotiation and immediately acting on his years old boner for Bert, I doubt Nonis would have had the stones to pull the trigger on a deal as big as it would have taken.
Absolutely. But you also have to take into consideration had Bert not been so injury prone he probably wouldn't have the dramatic decline. He was still a PPG player a his age and prime. To say Luongo is passed his prime would be rather foolish. We all know what he is capable of as we have seen in previous years.

Still Nonis did have the cahoons to pull the deal off knowing that what Bert did may or may not have played a roll in how he played for the rest of his career. At the time we were trading for fair value IMO. Regardless it takes two to tango. Who's to say that Nonis doesn't have a man crush on Luongo as much as Keenan did for Bert?

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01-02-2013, 06:08 PM
  #689
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It's not the whole reason, but it is definitely a factor. BB's record speaks for itself in that department. Should we trot out the failed "goalies of the future" for this to turn from a "useless oversimplification" into something more meaningful to you?



I'm saying based on his history at failed acquisitions in net, he can't properly evaluate goalies. What do you have to say that he can?
I am saying that it is still an oversimplification. Some people need these conversations to be black and white so they don't have to consider too many options.

Do you think there is a chance that Brian Burke is sitting in his office wondering if Luongo is a good goalie? Or do you think he is weighing the benefits of giving up young talent for a soon to be 34 yo goalie who is signed forever and like it or not has shown a tendency to have massive playoff meltdowns at unfortunate times. Never mind the fact that NOW isn't really the time for the Leafs.

The Leafs would be stupid, chronically stupid, to overpay for Lu. Now maybe they are stupid, but I wouldn't count on it.

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01-02-2013, 06:11 PM
  #690
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Originally Posted by The Kassian Train View Post
Still Nonis did have the cahoons to pull the deal off knowing that what Bert did may or may not have played a roll in how he played for the rest of his career. At the time we were trading for fair value IMO. Regardless it takes two to tango. Who's to say that Nonis doesn't have a man crush on Luongo as much as Keenan did for Bert?
That trade was not fair value, the Canucks easily got the better of the deal. Bertuzzi was THREE years removed from being an effective player and had proven several times the playoffs weren't worth his time.

Anyone who thought otherwise HAD to have owned a 44 jersey.

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01-02-2013, 06:33 PM
  #691
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Originally Posted by craigcaulks View Post
That trade was not fair value, the Canucks easily got the better of the deal. Bertuzzi was THREE years removed from being an effective player and had proven several times the playoffs weren't worth his time.

Anyone who thought otherwise HAD to have owned a 44 jersey.
He was coming off a 71 point season, and 60 points in 69 games prior to that. That still seems pretty effective to me...

edit; and no, I didn't own a 44 jersey.

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01-02-2013, 06:34 PM
  #692
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Originally Posted by craigcaulks View Post
I am saying that it is still an oversimplification. Some people need these conversations to be black and white so they don't have to consider too many options.

Do you think there is a chance that Brian Burke is sitting in his office wondering if Luongo is a good goalie? Or do you think he is weighing the benefits of giving up young talent for a soon to be 34 yo goalie who is signed forever and like it or not has shown a tendency to have massive playoff meltdowns at unfortunate times. Never mind the fact that NOW isn't really the time for the Leafs.

The Leafs would be stupid, chronically stupid, to overpay for Lu. Now maybe they are stupid, but I wouldn't count on it.
It's 4 years into Burke's "5 year plan", their talent pool is thin and they need quality goaltending (something they've sorely lacked during his tenure)...they may not "overpay" but they're going to pay market value or they aren't going to get him. What hasn't been decided yet is what market value is, it seems rather varied, and muddled due to the CBA at the moment.

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01-02-2013, 06:45 PM
  #693
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Originally Posted by 14s incisor View Post
He was coming off a 71 point season, and 60 points in 69 games prior to that. That still seems pretty effective to me...

edit; and no, I didn't own a 44 jersey.
Mmm...I'll find common ground and say while he was still an effective player, he was a shell of 2002-03 Bertuzzi.

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01-02-2013, 06:50 PM
  #694
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Originally Posted by craigcaulks View Post
I am saying that it is still an oversimplification. Some people need these conversations to be black and white so they don't have to consider too many options.

Do you think there is a chance that Brian Burke is sitting in his office wondering if Luongo is a good goalie? Or do you think he is weighing the benefits of giving up young talent for a soon to be 34 yo goalie who is signed forever and like it or not has shown a tendency to have massive playoff meltdowns at unfortunate times. Never mind the fact that NOW isn't really the time for the Leafs.

The Leafs would be stupid, chronically stupid, to overpay for Lu. Now maybe they are stupid, but I wouldn't count on it.
To repeat a point you continually ignore: the Leafs are a playoff team last season with league average goaltending. Stupidity isn't making sure you get Luongo: stupidity is Brian Burke's career-long track record of using sub-standard goaltenders.

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01-02-2013, 07:22 PM
  #695
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To repeat a point you continually ignore: the Leafs are a playoff team last season with league average goaltending.
They had a -33 goal differential. Not sure they're a playoff team with league average goaltending, as their team defense was pitiful, especially the PK...

If I was a Leaf fan I would be furious if Burke moved his 1st rd ick in a deal for Luongo. The draft is just far too strong and the potential for losing a cornerstone player is just too great. The Leafs just won't compete with their group of centremen and the only realistic way that gets rectified is through the draft.

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01-02-2013, 07:26 PM
  #696
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They had a -33 goal differential. Not sure they're a playoff team with league average goaltending, as their team defense was pitiful, especially the PK...

If I was a Leaf fan I would be furious if Burke moved his 1st rd ick in a deal for Luongo. The draft is just far too strong and the potential for losing a cornerstone player is just too great. The Leafs just won't compete with their group of centremen and the only realistic way that gets rectified is through the draft.
So Burke is adding another 5 years to his 5 year plan? Wonder if MLSE is onboard with that?

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01-02-2013, 07:27 PM
  #697
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It all depends on what the likelihood of Burke getting fired is if the Leafs miss out again this year, no? If there was no chance he would get the boot, then yeah we all know he'd want to hold onto his 1st rounder, but if not... he may not be around to even use it. I guess we'll see how good of a sell job he can pull out to ownership.

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01-02-2013, 07:31 PM
  #698
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
They had a -33 goal differential. Not sure they're a playoff team with league average goaltending, as their team defense was pitiful, especially the PK...

If I was a Leaf fan I would be furious if Burke moved his 1st rd ick in a deal for Luongo. The draft is just far too strong and the potential for losing a cornerstone player is just too great. The Leafs just won't compete with their group of centremen and the only realistic way that gets rectified is through the draft.
Look at the Panthers & their goal differential... the East is weak minus 4-5 or so teams.

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01-02-2013, 07:33 PM
  #699
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So Burke is adding another 5 years to his 5 year plan? Wonder if MLSE is onboard with that?
2 wrongs don't make a right.

People can't sit there and criticize Burke for the Kessel trade while saying he would be stupid not to trade his 1st for Luongo. There's just too much potential for disaster striking twice.

If you were hired right now to take over for Burke would you dump a 1st rd pick and your top young assets for a 34 year old goaltender? I know I wouldn't.

People are confusing what's in the best interests of the Leafs with what's in the best interests of Burke retaining his job.

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01-02-2013, 07:36 PM
  #700
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Look at the Panthers & their goal differential... the East is weak minus 4-5 or so teams.
But the Leafs aren't in the awful SE division.

They would have been in the hunt with average goaltending, but far from a lock.

Rarely do teams with dreadful team defense have success in the NHL. The Wilson led Leafs were beyond pitiful in this regard.

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