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Sam Gagner and Ryan Whitney

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Old
01-02-2013, 07:41 PM
  #201
iCanada
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
Ok, you stated his improvements in 5 years as:

Improved from a -21 to a +5

Improved from 11 hits to 21 hits

Improved from 65 give-aways to 26 give-aways

*Dropped from 31 blocked shots to 23 blocked shots

Improved from 27 take-aways to 37 take-aways

Improved from .620 ppg to .626 ppg

*Dropped from 49 points to 47 points (while averaging over 2mins TOI per game)


I stand by my "hairline improvements" comment. This would be good stats to show a pee-wee player who needs an ego boost, but a top-10 draft pick who is your NHL teams 2nd line center? Really? What are his most notable improvements in your opinion? .620 to .626 ppg (even though he had more TOI)? His 10 take-away jump in 5 seasons? His 29 less give-aways? His 10 more take-aways? His 10 more hits? Technically these are "improvements", but nothing to brag about about after 5 seasons in the League for a 2nd line center (who's specialty is supposed to be offense).
Even ignoring the limitations of +/- as a stat being compared between two different teams (as the 2012 Oilers and 2008 Oilers are..), the dude improved by 26... Even if he regressed in most other areas (which he did not) that is far from a hairline improvement. You normalize that number between the two teams (2008 Oilers -16, 2012 Oilers -27, 2012 Oilers had worse +/- by factor of 0.593) and the amount Gagner's +/- improved over the five seasons is +40. That is absolutely masssive.

When looking at the realtime stats, you need to factor in Human error: 1) not all the stats counted same in all building 2) humans make errors in counting. His blocked shot, and hits numbers lie pretty damn close to the standard deviation of just these sources of error above. However, it is dramatically impressive to see a player have almost 5 more minutes in 5 on 5 playing time (because lets be real here, in 2008 Gagner milked PP time... last year he definitely didn't) and he decreased his turnovers by a factor of 2.6. That is a ridiculous number, a remarkable improvement.

Sure his offensive numbers havn't improved a hell of a lot, but there is a lot more to the game of hockey than putting points in the net. How come the Pheonix Coyotes team which by your Metric has 0 top line centers and zero second line centers,two third line centers, and two fourth line centers beat a red wings team in the playoffs that has (again by your metric) two first line centers and one legit second line center?

I'm sorry Gagner kicked your dog, but seriously, get over your irrational hate for him as a player. Just makes you look like a troll who can't think for himself.

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01-02-2013, 08:59 PM
  #202
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Even ignoring the limitations of +/- as a stat being compared between two different teams (as the 2012 Oilers and 2008 Oilers are..), the dude improved by 26... Even if he regressed in most other areas (which he did not) that is far from a hairline improvement. You normalize that number between the two teams (2008 Oilers -16, 2012 Oilers -27, 2012 Oilers had worse +/- by factor of 0.593) and the amount Gagner's +/- improved over the five seasons is +40. That is absolutely masssive.

When looking at the realtime stats, you need to factor in Human error: 1) not all the stats counted same in all building 2) humans make errors in counting. His blocked shot, and hits numbers lie pretty damn close to the standard deviation of just these sources of error above. However, it is dramatically impressive to see a player have almost 5 more minutes in 5 on 5 playing time (because lets be real here, in 2008 Gagner milked PP time... last year he definitely didn't) and he decreased his turnovers by a factor of 2.6. That is a ridiculous number, a remarkable improvement.

Sure his offensive numbers havn't improved a hell of a lot, but there is a lot more to the game of hockey than putting points in the net. How come the Pheonix Coyotes team which by your Metric has 0 top line centers and zero second line centers,two third line centers, and two fourth line centers beat a red wings team in the playoffs that has (again by your metric) two first line centers and one legit second line center?

I'm sorry Gagner kicked your dog, but seriously, get over your irrational hate for him as a player. Just makes you look like a troll who can't think for himself.
Again, you're reaching here.

The Yotes made it to the Western Conference Finals on the backs of their dmen and solid goaltending, neither of which the Oilers have now. Gagner is neither offensive or defensive. While you mention the Yotes don't have a prototypical "#1 center",, their top center (Hanzel) plays a defensive game Gagner only dreams of.

Just because IMO Gagner is not a legit #2 center doesn't mean I hate the guy, I personally do not know Sam Gagner,, I've never met him.

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01-02-2013, 09:13 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
Again, you're reaching here.

The Yotes made it to the Western Conference Finals on the backs of their dmen and solid goaltending, neither of which the Oilers have now. Gagner is neither offensive or defensive. While you mention the Yotes don't have a prototypical "#1 center",, their top center (Hanzel) plays a defensive game Gagner only dreams of.

Just because IMO Gagner is not a legit #2 center doesn't mean I hate the guy, I personally do not know Sam Gagner,, I've never met him.
Better to reach then fabricate. You've been proven wrong, and shown that you're opinion is, at best, based off of Sam Gagner from a few years ago rather than now.

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01-02-2013, 11:11 PM
  #204
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Better to reach then fabricate. You've been proven wrong, and shown that you're opinion is, at best, based off of Sam Gagner from a few years ago rather than now.
Proven wrong where?

If anything the ONLY thing proven here is that Sam Gagners +/- has improved in 5 years. EVERYTHING else has remained the same. Sam Gagner is literally the SAME player today that he was 5years ago. Fact.

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01-02-2013, 11:17 PM
  #205
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Lets put it to a poll?

"Is Sam Gagner a legit 2nd line center to a team with playoff expectations?"

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01-03-2013, 12:30 AM
  #206
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
Proven wrong where?

If anything the ONLY thing proven here is that Sam Gagners +/- has improved in 5 years. EVERYTHING else has remained the same. Sam Gagner is literally the SAME player today that he was 5years ago. Fact.

o.o

Can you not read?

He is not the same player. He is 100 times more defensively responsible, just as if not slight more dangerous. He is a far better player than he was five years ago.

Thats not reaching, that is watching him play every night for five years and seeing him grow; that is his numbers proving that.

I dont really know what else to tell you.

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01-03-2013, 04:27 AM
  #207
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As a Ducks fan I can say that I am not all that interested in adding Gagner. I don't hate the guy. I just don't think he is enough of an improvement to warrant moving assets to acquire him. I mean honestly, if we take that 8 point game away from last years totals, we're left with 39 points in 74 games, Koivu had 37 in the same number of games while taking a lot of defensive roles for the team. Bonino who had 18 in 50 games and started showing strong chemistry with Ryan near the end of the year is also there for us. Bonino had a pace of about 30 points as a 3rd/4th line center. Gagner may have more potential than Bonino but in his 5 years he hasn't consistently shown that he can be more than a 40-50 point player. When I see a player score 8 points in a single game the first question that comes to mind is that performance an outlier or indicative of the players potential? Obviously it is not normal for any player but you expect a player who is capable of a feat like that to be be able to produce more than 50 points and the fact is he hasn't. So I come to the conclusion that it is an outlier and not a good measure of actual potential.

5 years of NHL experience and he really should have his game figured out. Can he grow? Sure, but I am not going to spend assets to see if he can do it or not.


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01-03-2013, 05:52 AM
  #208
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Originally Posted by iCanada View Post
o.o

Can you not read?

He is not the same player. He is 100 times more defensively responsible, just as if not slight more dangerous. He is a far better player than he was five years ago.

Thats not reaching, that is watching him play every night for five years and seeing him grow; that is his numbers proving that.

I dont really know what else to tell you.
The only legit stat I've been shown that he has improved in is his +/-. Show me exactly where else he has improved substantially other than the good old homer retort "you don't watch him play enough". Give me some substance, because all I see is fluff. Hairline improvements in give-aways and take-aways doesn't show me that he's picked his game up much in 5 seasons.

Gagner seems like a likeable guy, he's just not 2nd line center material on a team who's intentions are to make the playoffs.

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01-03-2013, 06:07 AM
  #209
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Did someone actually say they'd rather have Marcel Goc than Sam Gagner?

I think I'm going to puke. That is ridiculous

If Edmonton trades Gagner, we would be screwed at 2nd line C, so we aren't trading him yet. After this season though, it's a possibility

Also, I had a chuckle when a guy was trying to show he knew a lot about the Oilers, only to call the future goalie "Dubinksy" instead of Dubnyk.

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01-03-2013, 06:25 AM
  #210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
Lets put it to a poll?

"Is Sam Gagner a legit 2nd line center to a team with playoff expectations?"
Absolutely not, he's an OK 2nd line center for a lottery team that has no better option; that's really about it.

Think about it, he is a supposed offensive center that has only been able to produce at a moderate pace over 5 seasons, not really having any trend of improving year over year. He is very slow, does not possess much defensive awareness, soft as butter, and has none of the intangible qualities that would make him a good 3rd line pivot like Bolland. He has basically been stuck in a rut for a considerable amount of time now. Any team would be crazy to offer anything more than a high 2nd for him at this point.

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01-03-2013, 09:19 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
The only legit stat I've been shown that he has improved in is his +/-. Show me exactly where else he has improved substantially other than the good old homer retort "you don't watch him play enough". Give me some substance, because all I see is fluff. Hairline improvements in give-aways and take-aways doesn't show me that he's picked his game up much in 5 seasons.

Gagner seems like a likeable guy, he's just not 2nd line center material on a team who's intentions are to make the playoffs.
Faceoff percentage increase, points staying the same while playing against tougher competition, physicality. Ignore it all you want, but you're wrong.

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01-03-2013, 10:05 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
Lets put it to a poll?

"Is Sam Gagner a legit 2nd line center to a team with playoff expectations?"
As an Oilers fan I say no unless he has a great supporting cast of centers (a better offensive center on the team with a good 3rd line shutdown center). If you want to give your second line soft minutes for the purpose of secondary scoring then Gagner could be a fit, he shouldn't be THE guy on his line though, he's a complimentary player.

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01-03-2013, 10:20 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by zeus3007 View Post
Faceoff percentage increase, points staying the same while playing against tougher competition, physicality. Ignore it all you want, but you're wrong.
Oh don't worry. He's usually more than happy to ignore all the facts

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01-04-2013, 01:24 AM
  #214
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Faceoff percentage increase, points staying the same while playing against tougher competition, physicality. Ignore it all you want, but you're wrong.
If it takes a player 5 years to improve on nothing except a modest increase in face-off percentage, then that player simply has failed to develop. I think it's pretty clear what is happening to Gagner: he is likely one of those forwards that drifts into what should be the prime of his career without significant improvement over the first couple of promising years, and then fades away a couple of seasons later when most players are hitting their peak; then probably go play in Europe or something.

Someone like Tverdovsky comes to mind; Gagner is not on the trajectory to become anything significant at the NHL level. In fact, given that the makeup of the rest of his team have improved significantly over each of the seasons, yet he has really failed to make any improvement over the one good quality that he has (offence and productivity), it's pretty likely that this is as good as he will ever be. Just an observation according to historical precedents.

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01-04-2013, 03:23 AM
  #215
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If it takes a player 5 years to improve on nothing except a modest increase in face-off percentage, then that player simply has failed to develop. I think it's pretty clear what is happening to Gagner: he is likely one of those forwards that drifts into what should be the prime of his career without significant improvement over the first couple of promising years, and then fades away a couple of seasons later when most players are hitting their peak; then probably go play in Europe or something.

Someone like Tverdovsky comes to mind; Gagner is not on the trajectory to become anything significant at the NHL level. In fact, given that the makeup of the rest of his team have improved significantly over each of the seasons, yet he has really failed to make any improvement over the one good quality that he has (offence and productivity), it's pretty likely that this is as good as he will ever be. Just an observation according to historical precedents.
Did you seriously not read a single post in this thread before spewing that out?

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01-04-2013, 08:19 AM
  #216
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Originally Posted by letowskie View Post
If it takes a player 5 years to improve on nothing except a modest increase in face-off percentage, then that player simply has failed to develop. I think it's pretty clear what is happening to Gagner: he is likely one of those forwards that drifts into what should be the prime of his career without significant improvement over the first couple of promising years, and then fades away a couple of seasons later when most players are hitting their peak; then probably go play in Europe or something.

Someone like Tverdovsky comes to mind; Gagner is not on the trajectory to become anything significant at the NHL level. In fact, given that the makeup of the rest of his team have improved significantly over each of the seasons, yet he has really failed to make any improvement over the one good quality that he has (offence and productivity), it's pretty likely that this is as good as he will ever be. Just an observation according to historical precedents.
Well said. Although perhaps he wont go to Europe, I see him more as a journeyman dman, bouncing from team to team. He reminds me of Cogliano, with less speed ofcourse.

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01-04-2013, 08:27 AM
  #217
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Did you seriously not read a single post in this thread before spewing that out?
I think you called it in your previous post. These guys dont really care about facts, except for cherry picked ones in their favor.


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01-04-2013, 08:55 AM
  #218
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Well since stats show clear regression according to that one guy, lets look at a different guy's career:

3 points in 2 games
10 points in 26 games
40 points in 61 games
25 points in 39 games
41 points in 60 games
2 points in 12 games

Well lets see:
It never gets back up to the short PPG of the first year
It hovers around 40
Horrendous last season
Even though this guy is young, he must be a bust because look at the stats...

...so the Oilers got rid of him...

...Ray Whitney still plays in the league today. Guess stats weren't everything. Point being is, look at how young he still is and consider that it's quite possible that he isn't done developing. To say he's worse than Marcel Goc, or that he'll be a journeyman player because he has only hit 40-49 points by the age of 23, is stupid.

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01-04-2013, 10:19 AM
  #219
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
The only legit stat I've been shown that he has improved in is his +/-. Show me exactly where else he has improved substantially other than the good old homer retort "you don't watch him play enough". Give me some substance, because all I see is fluff. Hairline improvements in give-aways and take-aways doesn't show me that he's picked his game up much in 5 seasons.

Gagner seems like a likeable guy, he's just not 2nd line center material on a team who's intentions are to make the playoffs.
i'm not an oiler fan, but it sounds like you suffer from the delusion that many hockey fans seem to. Check the scoring numbers on nhl. 30 teams right? scoring from 31-60 should be your "second line" center. I think Gagne's production of 40-50 is right in the wheelhouse of what you'll find there (over the past 3 seasons hes placed 39th, 50th, and 53rd).

You may not think he's a second line center, but by your standards, there's probably not 30 second line centers in the league, or there is, and there's not 30 first line centers in the league (which is impossible when using a relative term such as "first line" or "second line" which equate to "top 30" and "30-60" respectively)


+/- is an aweful stat, though put in the context that the oilers posters have, it does look like he's improved well defensively. a 40-50 pt defencivly sound center isn't a 2c on a playoff team? doesn't that depend entirely on how the teams built? i think if you had 3 centers of gagnes ability, your probably not in too bad of shape.

edit: if your going on defensive increases, your better to look at TOI, Zone stars, and Relative Corsi to see how his usage has been/changed and wether or not hes been putting up the same production with tougher assignments. That is a MUCH better way to gauge wether his defencive play has gotten better, rather +/- and atrociously inconsistent realtime stats.

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01-04-2013, 10:52 AM
  #220
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The other thing that really needs to be taken into account with Gagner is what's happened to the team around him. The team has actually gotten substantially worse since his rookie year and in addition to that at 23 years old while still developing he's basically looked at to be a veteran player on that team because the veterans they did have have completely sucked lately. That's not a situation where a guy as young as Gagner should be expected to put up 60 points. I mean by rights the guy should still be getting sheltered minutes but because Horcoff has been terrible he's been the defacto #1 centre until RNH showed up last year and even then it screwed gagner cause Horcoff got minutes with the other top kids a lot of the time and Gagner bounced around as a 3rd line winger or just filling in for guys being injured.

Sam Gagner is not a terrible player, he's made huge strides in his defensive game, that's just not arguable to anyone who's paid attention to Gagner. Sure he's not a stalwart but he can avoid being a total liability and at 23 years old that's not bad. He won't ever be the driving offensive force on a line, but he's skilled enough that if you put him with skilled player he can keep up with them and that's not a useless skill in itself. His 8 point night is proof of that. Hall and Eberle having great games and Gagner manages to fit like a glove and racks up 8 points as a result. Given how the oilers top prospects are mostly wingers doesn't having the centre who's a supporting player make sense? Gagner has shown a willingness to put in the work to improve his weaknesses and possesses enough natural talent to play an offensive role alongside other offensive players while still being young enough to be part of the oilers youth. That's a guy that is going to surprise a lot of people when the oilers as a team improve. The defense has really cost them a lot of offense the last few years, it's why adding a guy like Justin Schultz was so important. Just a complete lack of high end puck moving from the back end when Whitney was hurt or playing like crap.

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01-04-2013, 01:22 PM
  #221
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i'm not an oiler fan, but it sounds like you suffer from the delusion that many hockey fans seem to. Check the scoring numbers on nhl. 30 teams right? scoring from 31-60 should be your "second line" center. I think Gagne's production of 40-50 is right in the wheelhouse of what you'll find there (over the past 3 seasons hes placed 39th, 50th, and 53rd).

You may not think he's a second line center, but by your standards, there's probably not 30 second line centers in the league, or there is, and there's not 30 first line centers in the league (which is impossible when using a relative term such as "first line" or "second line" which equate to "top 30" and "30-60" respectively)


+/- is an aweful stat, though put in the context that the oilers posters have, it does look like he's improved well defensively. a 40-50 pt defencivly sound center isn't a 2c on a playoff team? doesn't that depend entirely on how the teams built? i think if you had 3 centers of gagnes ability, your probably not in too bad of shape.

edit: if your going on defensive increases, your better to look at TOI, Zone stars, and Relative Corsi to see how his usage has been/changed and wether or not hes been putting up the same production with tougher assignments. That is a MUCH better way to gauge wether his defencive play has gotten better, rather +/- and atrociously inconsistent realtime stats.
You conveniently leave out the fact that Gagner is touted as an offensive centerman. He's not a 'shut-down' center by any means. Although his scoring stats match that of a 3rd line shutdown center (minus the defensive prowess). He is miscast in his role as a #2 center in Edmonton, asnd you can bet your last dollar that once the 'kids' are ready to seriously compete for playoff wins, Gagner will be long gone from Edmonton.

This isnt some kid who was a 6th round pick and has turned out to be a decent 45point center. He was a top-10 pick in his draft, highly touted for his offensive abilities. In 5 seasons, he's gone from 49pts his rookie year, to 47pts this past year. Sorry, you arent convincing anybody that this kid has progressed. He's a mediocre dime-a-dozen undersized forward who just can't seem to produce to his ability in the NHL.

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01-04-2013, 02:12 PM
  #222
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Originally Posted by Oates2Neely View Post
Lets put it to a poll?

"Is Sam Gagner a legit 2nd line center to a team with playoff expectations?"
No. He is not the kind of 2nd line center a playoff team wants. He still has room to grow, but after 5 seasons, he seems to be what he will probably always be. As a 6th overall pick, he is a disappointment. I doubt he gets more than the equivalent of a 2nd rounder if he gets traded.

Although I do think the Oilers could probably reap a better return from the Blackhawks. The thought of reuniting Gagner and Kane, tied to the fact that the Hawks need a 2nd line center, might make them overpay for him in the hope of getting that chemistry at the NHL level.

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01-04-2013, 02:17 PM
  #223
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You conveniently leave out the fact that Gagner is touted as an offensive centerman. He's not a 'shut-down' center by any means. Although his scoring stats match that of a 3rd line shutdown center (minus the defensive prowess). He is miscast in his role as a #2 center in Edmonton, asnd you can bet your last dollar that once the 'kids' are ready to seriously compete for playoff wins, Gagner will be long gone from Edmonton.

This isnt some kid who was a 6th round pick and has turned out to be a decent 45point center. He was a top-10 pick in his draft, highly touted for his offensive abilities. In 5 seasons, he's gone from 49pts his rookie year, to 47pts this past year. Sorry, you arent convincing anybody that this kid has progressed. He's a mediocre dime-a-dozen undersized forward who just can't seem to produce to his ability in the NHL.
How many points do you think he should be putting up? Maybe it's just me but 50 points from a second line center is sufficient offense.

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01-04-2013, 02:45 PM
  #224
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How many points do you think he should be putting up? Maybe it's just me but 50 points from a second line center is sufficient offense.
In before someone says "49 isn't 50"

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01-04-2013, 02:48 PM
  #225
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In before someone says "49 isn't 50"
64 games isn't 82 either

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