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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXX - Naughty Edition

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Old
01-02-2013, 07:53 PM
  #776
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
You see any recent Wolves games?

Kassian seems to making a lot of NHL caliber plays with the puck and his passing looks great.

Might as well try what we have, no?
I asked that but got no response. I think we may have a classic stat checker


Kassian has been making some unreal passes (a few no look or back hands) & this is another one:



Last edited by Scottrockztheworld*: 01-02-2013 at 08:33 PM.
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01-02-2013, 07:56 PM
  #777
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Not a fan of Booth with the Sedins. He has far too much tunnel vision to make sense of their style. I'm also somewhat hesitant to ran Hansen in the top six. He seems at most a tweener similar to Higgins. If the cap does become an issue I would rather dump Booth and leave that spot for either Kassian or Jensen
It worked out okay in the playoffs when the three of them played together. Definitely something I'd like to see explored more, so at least we know if there's chemistry there.

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01-02-2013, 09:29 PM
  #778
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I want Ryan Johansen...pipe dreaming a 3-way trade with Toronto.

CBJ: Kadri, Kulemin, Raymond, TO 2nd rounder

TO: Luongo

US: Johansen & CBJ 3rd rounder
I hear ya. Would be ideal. Didn't he play with Kassian at the World Jrs as well?

A 3rd line Kassian - Johansen - Hansen would be awesome. Especially because they're so hard to pronounce


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01-02-2013, 09:58 PM
  #779
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
You see any recent Wolves games?

Kassian seems to making a lot of NHL caliber plays with the puck and his passing looks great.

Might as well try what we have, no?
No actually I haven't. But I have paid attention to what people who have are saying, and I've read that he's been quite inconsistent (especially physically). Statistically, Kassian appears to be taking a step back from where he was at last year, although that's likely due to our system.

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01-02-2013, 10:11 PM
  #780
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
No actually I haven't. But I have paid attention to what people who have are saying, and I've read that he's been quite inconsistent (especially physically). Statistically, Kassian appears to be taking a step back from where he was at last year, although that's likely due to our system.
A lot of people are complaining about Kassian because they expect him to be a top 6 NHL forward already.
One guy wants him to get one hit per shift (equaling over 800 hits in a season, which would obliterate the current NHL record for hits in a season).

He is playing well for his current stage of development. He definitely has areas to improve on, but he is a better player than last year.


For the longest time I absolutely hated the Hodgson trade, but the more I see Kassian, the less I hate the trade.

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01-02-2013, 11:08 PM
  #781
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
No actually I haven't. But I have paid attention to what people who have are saying, and I've read that he's been quite inconsistent (especially physically). Statistically, Kassian appears to be taking a step back from where he was at last year, although that's likely due to our system.
Lucic I hear is very much the same and so was Bertuzzi during his prime. Let's not forget Linden was criticized by Keenan for the same thing which led to the '94 team being voted off the island. He's in fairly good company I'd say (exclude Keenan).

As far as offensive production, I believe your last point is grounds for more hypothesis testing. I know I believe in that theory. As far as Kassian goes, as long as he isn't skipping the game 7s and winning regular season scoring titles I think it's no cause for too much concern. Personally, I'm more concerned who our third-line center will be or who replaces Kesler while he is out.

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01-03-2013, 07:32 AM
  #782
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Players such as Nuckles has proposed are the plan B of all plan B's for the 3rd center solution. Knowing Gillis, however, I'd wager he doesn't spend an unbalanced amount of assets to get any one particular younger solution (unless Ballard/Raymond can be used) so we might even have to settle for one of them.

For reasons stated, Cullen can't be had and Belanger shouldn't be had. Zubrus could be had but I have no idea what NJ would want other than an overpayment. MacDonald was already one option mentioned, but wouldn't come cheap because of St. Louis' emergence as a top-tier team.

Antropov might actually be the best alternative because Winnipeg have Jokinen/Little/Burmi/Wellwood and Scheifele coming up at the center position so if they'd be trading from their strength, and I seriously doubt they would offer him what he'd like - their equivalent of our Armchair thread has fans offering him 1y/2m, and I'd guess moving to Vancouver and having a better chance at the cup could really entice him. I'd say we can get him for a playoff rental price, and getting a player of his caliber would be getting a Higgins/Lapierre all over again. We might even give him a 1,75/2y or something like that so he gets the stability, assuming we are dead set on getting rid of Ballard and Luongo. Of course we'd have Schroeder slotting in his spot in our minds, but who knows, really.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows (Don't mess with it)
Booth - Kesler - Higgins (Give it time)
Raymond - Antropov - Kassian (When you think of it it's essentially another 2nd line if all clicks)
Malhotra - Lapierre - Hansen

I like it. He can fill in for Kesler for a while succifiently enough, he was 69GP 15+20=35 last season but almost 70 points two seasons apart.. And when our young guns come around in the next two years, Antropov can switch to Raymond's slot on the wing.

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01-03-2013, 02:34 PM
  #783
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Just spitballing on the thought of the NHL and the PA splitting the difference on the 2013-14 season salary cap (arriving at $62.5m) and ending up with two compliance buy outs.

If we traded Luongo for prospects and picks and bought out both Keith Ballard and David Booth:

Quote:
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alex Burrows ($4.500m)
Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) /
GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
------
SALARY CAP: $62,500,000; CAP PAYROLL: $41,620,000; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (10-man roster): $20,880,000
If we re-signed Alex Edler at $5m/year and Chris Tanev at $1.5m/year and Jordan Schroeder at $750k/year, and ran with Eddie Lack and Nicklas Jensen:

Quote:
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alex Burrows ($4.500m)
Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Jordan Schroeder ($0.750m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.894m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Alex Edler ($5.000m)
Chris Tanev ($1.500m) /
GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
Eddie Lack ($0.750m)
------
SALARY CAP: $62,500,000; CAP PAYROLL: $50,514,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (15-man roster): $11,985,833
To me that's a pretty tantalizing situation. I think even with the buyout options there is going to be some significant deflationary pressure on many free agents and I think the bargain bin will overflow this summer; there should be some very interesting opportunities there. Alternatively there is enough space left to take a run at a very significant improvement somewhere as well.

Say the Canucks got Higgins and Lapierre re-signed for about $3m combined, this is where they'd stand:

Quote:
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alex Burrows ($4.500m)
Chris Higgins ($1.500m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.894m) / Jordan Schroeder ($0.750m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Max Lapierre ($1.500m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Alex Edler ($5.000m)
Chris Tanev ($1.500m) /
GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
Eddie Lack ($0.750m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,500,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,514,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (17-man roster): $8,985,833
Fill out the fourth line and last two defense spots with ELCs (Mallet, Corrado, etc) and guys who have shaken loose in all the instability around the league and you're still looking at an open spot in the $5-6m neighbourhood.

The question becomes, are the Canucks better off with nearly $9m on Booth and Ballard and pretty bad cap problems elsewhere, or do they cut both players loose re-sign some veteran role players, and rely on one big addition plus their organizational depth to make an improvement?


Last edited by dave babych returns: 01-03-2013 at 02:41 PM.
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01-03-2013, 02:41 PM
  #784
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I would say that Booth will be tied to Kesler and I don't really get splitting them up. Burrows also degenerates back into a 3rd liner anytime he plays with Kesler and Kesler does too, to be honest.
Higgins has shown way more chemistry with Kesler than Booth.

Kesler and Burrows have had limited success but haven't had much of a chance to play together in the last 3 years.

I'd like to see us change the mix.

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01-03-2013, 02:44 PM
  #785
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Why buy-out Booth? Ballard remains much more suspect a case. But even him I think can be traded.


Same line-up you have, but replace Jensen with Booth. Then, use the excess 1-2m to fill out the bottom end, bargain bin shop, or keep it for the deadline.


Luongo, Ballard, Alberts, Raymond and Malhotra are all gone after this year.

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01-03-2013, 02:57 PM
  #786
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Why buy-out Booth? Ballard remains much more suspect a case. But even him I think can be traded.


Same line-up you have, but replace Jensen with Booth. Then, use the excess 1-2m to fill out the bottom end, bargain bin shop, or keep it for the deadline.


Luongo, Ballard, Alberts, Raymond and Malhotra are all gone after this year.
It's risky.

The idea is that a player (contract, really) like David Booth is valuable to the Canucks because they have managed the rest of their cap situation so well - they can afford a player who is delivering bordlerline results for their cap hit because everyone else is doing much better.

At least they could, when the cap was $64m and rising. Shave a little off that for next year with no guarantee of any future increases - and give full market value to another player in Edler - and all that room that made it possible to get players without giving up much in trades is gone.

Combine that with my assumption that there are going to be some players left in the cold this summer in free agency, I really see a downward trajectory in bang-for-the-buck in unrestricted free agency over the last CBA and I expect that to be the same this time around too.

So.. do the Canucks hold onto a couple of players who to varying extents, kinda, sorta, deliver value for their cap hits? Or do they try again with a bit of a redistribution of value on their roster and another go at the free agent marketplace?

Like I said initially.. just spitballing, really.

(For the record I don't think there's any way the team buys David Booth out, barring a disastrous shortened season.)

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01-03-2013, 03:28 PM
  #787
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Even if the cap drops to $62.5 million we won't need to buy out Booth. With raises to Edler, Higgins, Lapierre, and Tanev I think we'd still be looking at around $2.5 million to add a bottom 6 center and a bottom pairing defenseman. It would be close, but it's doable.

FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($4.500m)
Chris Higgins ($2.500m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / David Booth ($4.250m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.894m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.500m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Steve Pinizzotto ($0.600m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Dale Weise ($0.615m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Jason Garrison ($4.600m) / Alexander Edler ($5.000m)
Derek Joslin ($0.700m) / Chris Tanev ($1.500m)
GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
Eddie Lack ($0.750m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,500,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,429,177; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $2,545,833


If we traded Luongo to Florida for Goc, Upshall, Ellerby and futures and used our 2nd buyout on Upshall we would be sitting under the cap with a pretty decent roster and some nice new prospects. I would much prefer that over trading him to Toronto for a comparable return.

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01-03-2013, 03:33 PM
  #788
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If we trade Luongo for Goc, Upshall and Ellerby then Gillis should be fired. If all teams are offering for Luongo is crap then you keep your top 5 goalie and cry your way back to another President's trophy.

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01-03-2013, 03:38 PM
  #789
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
If we trade Luongo for Goc, Upshall and Ellerby then Gillis should be fired. If all teams are offering for Luongo is crap then you keep your top 5 goalie and cry your way back to another President's trophy.
First of all, you missed the "plus futures" part. Also, I can't comprehend how people still don't understand that we can't take big salaries back for Luongo if the cap drops without losing key players (Edler) for nothing in free agency. I know you want the moon for Luongo, but like NASA we really don't have the budget to be exploring plans involving the moon right now.

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01-03-2013, 03:42 PM
  #790
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
If we trade Luongo for Goc, Upshall and Ellerby then Gillis should be fired. If all teams are offering for Luongo is crap then you keep your top 5 goalie and cry your way back to another President's trophy.
Give it up dude. Your valuation of Luongo would be accurate if we neglected age, contract, demand, and the new CBA. No matter what happens, you will be disappointed with the return from Luongo and will want Gillis fired, but Gillis is only going to take the best offer available - why the hell would he take anything less?

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01-03-2013, 03:42 PM
  #791
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
First of all, you missed the "plus futures" part. Also, I can't comprehend how people still don't understand that we can't take big salaries back for Luongo if the cap drops without losing key players (Edler) for nothing in free agency. I know you want the moon for Luongo, but like NASA we really don't have the budget to be exploring plans involving the moon right now.
We have the money, but we are tight on cap space...however if we are allowed 2 buyouts and we have some expiring contracts. If the right "big contract" came available I think we'd still be fine. We just came off a summer where we were down to the wire trying to get Shea Weber, so I think Gillis will make room for the right players if they become available.

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01-03-2013, 03:44 PM
  #792
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Co Ho View Post
Give it up dude. Your valuation of Luongo would be accurate if we neglected age, contract, demand, and the new CBA. No matter what happens, you will be disappointed with the return from Luongo and will want Gillis fired, but Gillis is only going to take the best offer available - why the hell would he take anything less?
A top 5 goalie is worth more than table scraps. It's not an unrealistic valuation.

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01-03-2013, 03:47 PM
  #793
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A top 5 goalie is worth more than table scraps. It's not an unrealistic valuation.
A player is only worth what someone will give up to get them.


Last edited by Doctor No: 01-03-2013 at 03:58 PM. Reason: Flaming
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01-03-2013, 03:52 PM
  #794
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
A player is only worth what someone will give up to get them.
Gillis will take the best offer possible, which you will probably end up hating, but it ultimately comes down to getting the best return in a very restricted situation.


Last edited by Doctor No: 01-03-2013 at 03:58 PM. Reason: QEP / Flaming
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01-03-2013, 04:00 PM
  #795
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A players value is more than what teams are willing to give up. Consider value over replacement player. Luongo's value over a replacement in net is extremely high. His production has value to this team, and if that value exceeds what we are being offered from other teams then it makes zero sense to trade him.

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01-03-2013, 04:07 PM
  #796
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
A players value is more than what teams are willing to give up. Consider value over replacement player. Luongo's value over a replacement in net is extremely high. His production has value to this team, and if that value exceeds what we are being offered from other teams then it makes zero sense to trade him.
Once again, normally I'd agree but given the Canuck's scenario with Schneider emerging, and Luongo stating that it's time to move on, we have a somewhat forced hand.
And how is his value going to increase the longer we hold on to him, if the cap is lowered and him only getting older? Maybe for part of a season (if a team like Philly struggles with goaltending), but any longer and his value declines IMO.

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01-03-2013, 04:08 PM
  #797
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
A top 5 goalie is worth more than table scraps. It's not an unrealistic valuation.
There are more intangibles than simply what a player is physically...

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01-03-2013, 04:13 PM
  #798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Co Ho View Post
Once again, normally I'd agree but given the Canuck's scenario with Schneider emerging, and Luongo stating that it's time to move on, we have a somewhat forced hand.
And how is his value going to increase the longer we hold on to him, if the cap is lowered and him only getting older? Maybe for part of a season (if a team like Philly struggles with goaltending), but any longer and his value declines IMO.
Why ignore the fact that in September Luongo stated he has a lot of friends on the team and that he's happy to be here and looking forward to the season? Schneider is emerging, but it was proven last year how valuable our goaltending duo is, so why not keep them both?

His value will increase due to his stellar play, due to teams realizing we aren't in a position where we NEED to trade one or the other, or due to a team struggling and needing to make a move. What's the worst that can happen? Luongo's trade value doesn't change and, oh no, we might not be able to get that coveted Tyler Bozak back in a trade? Big loss that is. There's no risk in keeping Luongo if all teams are offering right now is garbage.

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01-03-2013, 04:18 PM
  #799
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If there is a season, this will be our lineup this year:

Sedin (6.1) - Sedin (6.1) - Burrows (2.0)
Booth (4.25) - Kesler (5.0) - Raymond (2.275)
Higgins (1.9) - Lapierre (1.0) - Hansen (1.35)
Weise (0.615) - Malholtra (2.5) - Kassian (0.87)
*Volpatti (0.6)

Hamhuis (4.5) - Bieksa (4.6)
Edler (3.25) - Garrison (4.6)
Ballard (4.2) - Tanev (0.9)
*Alberts (1.225)

Schneider (4.0)
Luongo (5.333)

Total: $67,168,333 -- $3,031,667M in cap space.

Schroeder won't make the team unless Kesler is unable to go when puck drops. Once he's back and healthy, Schroeder is getting sent down. However, he will be first/second call-up. GMMG has said he wants to get Schroeder some NHL action. Raymond is going to get every opportunity IMO to get back on that second line and will be interchangeable with Higgins should that fail (most likely will). Volpatti will make the team because he's AV's boy. Once he gets injured, Ebbett will make his way up here. Pinizzotto will get look at the 13th forward as well if he's healthy.

Don't expect a lot of action in regards to trades -- if any. Every GM is going to let the season ride itself out with what they got and will make assessments closer to the NHL deadline because of the shortened season. Luongo could possibly get dealt closer to the deadline if there's a desperate GM, however, it seems more likely IMO that Luongo will get dealt in the off-season.

Just my two cents. Trying to be as realistic as possible here.

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01-03-2013, 04:20 PM
  #800
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Why ignore the fact that in September Luongo stated he has a lot of friends on the team and that he's happy to be here and looking forward to the season? Schneider is emerging, but it was proven last year how valuable our goaltending duo is, so why not keep them both?
For the first bit, he's saying the right things to help facilitate a trade and/or remain on good terms with the franchise if he does stick around for a bit longer than expected.
For the second part, with a lower cap and impending UFAs (Edler, Higgins, Lapierre, etc.), we can't afford the same roster that you are citing as being successful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
His value will increase due to his stellar play, due to teams realizing we aren't in a position where we NEED to trade one or the other, or due to a team struggling and needing to make a move. What's the worst that can happen? Luongo's trade value doesn't change and, oh no, we might not be able to get that coveted Tyler Bozak back in a trade? Big loss that is. There's no risk in keeping Luongo if all teams are offering right now is garbage.
Disagree. His value is as high as it gets, unless he somehow busts out a career year (which I don't see happening at 33 and splitting time with Schneider, although anything could happen).
The risks in keeping Luongo for an extended period of time are:
-He keeps getting older, you'd think he'd be less valuable at, say 35, than 33.
-One of Schneider or Luongo gets fed up with splitting time and demands a trade, forcing MG's hand even more.
-Our cap situation restricts us from re-signing some of our core players (mentioned above).

The ONLY positive to holding on to both (aside from providing consistent goaltending and alternating them) is that the market opens up and new teams become interested - but the reverse could happen as well.

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