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Over-saturation in Seattle?

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01-03-2013, 04:19 PM
  #1
Hackett
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Over-saturation in Seattle?

There's a thread where market saturation has been discussed for the milwuakee area when it comes to the NHL. This got me thinking of Seattle again. Here's one of the best markets in america in terms of fan support.

The NHL won't come without the NBA, which already has strong roots in the city, and they never left due to a lack of fan support.

The Seahawks do really well,as do most nfl teams

The Mariners are not doing so hot, but the instant they stop being perennial doormats, the fans will be back in that beautiful ballpark. Again, they have deep roots in the city.

The Sounders are a revelation that puts other franchises of that league to shame. By far, the best followed MLS franchise in north america, and its not even remotely close.

Having said all that, where does the NHL fit in? You could argue that this market has reached its saturation point. Funny how timing can make a great deal of difference. Had the NHL broke in before the MLS had a chance to find its niche, it could be the NHL that we would be talking about as the massive hit.

Can the NHL manage to build a large base in this market?

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01-03-2013, 04:27 PM
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It would be kind of nice to see the leauge acheive another cluster of teams. Once you get outside of the NY east coast area the travel gets pretty intense. I think not only the glitz and galmour of NY draws a lot of players but the reduced travel schedule as well. Would be nice to see another region develop that advantage. I think that market is as good as any other that you can find in the US. Its worth a try

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01-03-2013, 04:31 PM
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It's a wealthy metro area of 4 million people and it's growing fast. It shouldn't be a problem.

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01-03-2013, 04:35 PM
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NJDevils7
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How about Portland? Only has 2 major teams, the TrailBlazers and Timbers.

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01-03-2013, 04:35 PM
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similar to San Jose.

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01-03-2013, 04:40 PM
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I think its the marketshare that the sounders have accumulated that makes me wonder a little bit. If there's any market where the nhl is concerned about the MLS competition, it has to be seattle. Can they take away enough of that base, or any of it, or do they even need to?

Its not your typical big market market where the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NCAA are the main competitors... you also have a MLS club drawing 43,144 people per game as well.

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01-03-2013, 04:42 PM
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I think that would be neat if Portland could get a team, but would the hipsters be upset over the 1 fight per game?

They could always shield their eyes with their fedoras or berets for 30 seconds I guess.

Seattle I would think is still the more financially sound location though.

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01-03-2013, 04:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJDevils7 View Post
How about Portland? Only has 2 major teams, the TrailBlazers and Timbers.
Portland is a smaller city. There used to be some legitimate talks about the NHL going there. They had the building, a very rich and local potential owner, and they supported their junior team very well at the time.

The prevailing assumption was that this market would not pay a premium to watch top class hockey, though.

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01-03-2013, 04:47 PM
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So apparently the State of Washington has a 'mutual combat' law. You'd think the sport of hockey would fit right in

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01-03-2013, 05:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackett View Post
There's a thread where market saturation has been discussed for the milwuakee area when it comes to the NHL. This got me thinking of Seattle again. Here's one of the best markets in america in terms of fan support.

The NHL won't come without the NBA, which already has strong roots in the city, and they never left due to a lack of fan support.

The Seahawks do really well,as do most nfl teams

The Mariners are not doing so hot, but the instant they stop being perennial doormats, the fans will be back in that beautiful ballpark. Again, they have deep roots in the city.

The Sounders are a revelation that puts other franchises of that league to shame. By far, the best followed MLS franchise in north america, and its not even remotely close.

Having said all that, where does the NHL fit in? You could argue that this market has reached its saturation point. Funny how timing can make a great deal of difference. Had the NHL broke in before the MLS had a chance to find its niche, it could be the NHL that we would be talking about as the massive hit.

Can the NHL manage to build a large base in this market?
Compare it to Denver, which has all four major professional sports plus MLS and is the smallest market to have all leagues. The Denver TV market is 1.5 million (#18) while Seattle-Tacoma is 1.8 million (#14) (source: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/200...stimates/5037/). As long as an NHL franchise is competative and successful on the ice, I suspect they would be a successful in the Seattle market.

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01-03-2013, 05:28 PM
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I don't think the MLS will be as big a competitor as you'd think. March is when the MLS season opens up. It's also the month that the NHL sched really gets interesting as teams have a month to solidify a playoff berth. So you have basically a month of overlap before NHL playoffs start, and given the proximity to Vancouver, you can almost guarantee Seattle will have a pool of fans itching for some NHL playoff tickets.

The MLS season ends at the end of October. So it dips into the NHL sched by about a month. If the Sounders make the playoffs, you might dip into the NHL season by 2 months.

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01-03-2013, 05:29 PM
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I've always thought the fact that the Seahawks do so well at home is just another sign that they deserve an NHL team and would thrive with one... maybe i'm reaching, it just makes sense to me.

Edit: On topic, i don't think it'll be a problem. The Northwest needs more hockey teams, it's a cash cow waiting to happen IMO.

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01-03-2013, 05:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackett View Post
The Sounders are a revelation that puts other franchises of that league to shame. By far, the best followed MLS franchise in north america, and its not even remotely close.
all because of Alex Morgan

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01-03-2013, 06:08 PM
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Seattle and Portland can support teams in my opinion

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01-03-2013, 08:28 PM
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Both Seattle and Milwaukee can have teams, imo. You fill in states that currently have no NHL presence, with Seattle you form a rivalry with Vancouver, with Milwaukee you have the Wild, Blackhawks and Red Wings all in neighboring states. Bring them both in, as far as I'm concerned.

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01-03-2013, 08:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackett View Post
I think its the marketshare that the sounders have accumulated that makes me wonder a little bit. If there's any market where the nhl is concerned about the MLS competition, it has to be seattle. Can they take away enough of that base, or any of it, or do they even need to?

Its not your typical big market market where the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NCAA are the main competitors... you also have a MLS club drawing 43,144 people per game as well.
43 144 people at waht 20-25 bucks a pop, over only 17 home games is not a threat to the NHL which sells 18-19 000 tickets at fifty bucks a pop over 42 home games minimum.

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01-03-2013, 09:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shawa666 View Post
43 144 people at waht 20-25 bucks a pop, over only 17 home games is not a threat to the NHL which sells 18-19 000 tickets at fifty bucks a pop over 42 home games minimum.
Although hockey and soccer tend to have similar demographics in their fan bases, I agree. The minimal overlap of the NHL and MLS will limit the effect that one has on the other. The NHL's biggest problem in a hypothetical expansion/relocation to Seattle is the NBA; and, let's be honest, there will be an NBA team in Seattle pretty much the instant their arena goes up.

Seattle is a good sports town, though, and a large (3.5M people), affluent city. I think it can support the Big Four + MLS adequately.

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01-03-2013, 10:30 PM
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I think Seattle has enough of everything to support another team or two, not just in population but in corporate support. Not many untapped possible NHL landing spots have as much potential corporate support than Seattle.... probably only Houston.

Doubt that selling out, especially suites and booths, would be that difficult for them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NJDevils7 View Post
How about Portland? Only has 2 major teams, the TrailBlazers and Timbers.
I'm a bit torn on Portland, to be honest. If Allen's interested, they'll get a team regardless, and they have an arena ready and rearing to go, but.... if they got a team, they'd also be the smallest market with both NHL and NBA teams by a decent amount.

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01-04-2013, 12:59 AM
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FYI: sports saturation concerns in Seattle was mentioned in at least one article published July 28th, 2012 on the Seattle Times website.

If a future NHL Seattle team is marketed to the public the same way as the MLS Sounders, major league hockey in Seattle might be a big success not just in Seattle but also in Washington state. Obviously, it depends on numerous questions that will need to be answered before the NHL arrives in Seattle: new NBA team, new arena, environmental study, among many others.

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01-04-2013, 08:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by worstfaceoffmanever View Post
Although hockey and soccer tend to have similar demographics in their fan bases, I agree. The minimal overlap of the NHL and MLS will limit the effect that one has on the other. The NHL's biggest problem in a hypothetical expansion/relocation to Seattle is the NBA; and, let's be honest, there will be an NBA team in Seattle pretty much the instant their arena goes up.

Seattle is a good sports town, though, and a large (3.5M people), affluent city. I think it can support the Big Four + MLS adequately.
I do think that Seattle can support teams in all Big 4 league and the MLS. I was merely pointing out that the MLS is still a minor league, revenue wise.

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01-04-2013, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shawa666 View Post
43 144 people at waht 20-25 bucks a pop, over only 17 home games is not a threat to the NHL which sells 18-19 000 tickets at fifty bucks a pop over 42 home games minimum.
You might want to check out those MLS prices, Google is your friend.

http://www.soundersfc.com/tickets/seating-chart.aspx


Here's also a thread one time that I had started about open markets in the USA, with also a link to the spreadsheet. I'll be honest, I think Seattle would be tight with all 5 and sitll think Portland could handle an NHL team better

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...281&highlight=

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...&rm=full#gid=0

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01-04-2013, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cutchemist42 View Post
You might want to check out those MLS prices, Google is your friend.

http://www.soundersfc.com/tickets/seating-chart.aspx


Here's also a thread one time that I had started about open markets in the USA, with also a link to the spreadsheet. I'll be honest, I think Seattle would be tight with all 5 and sitll think Portland could handle an NHL team better

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...281&highlight=

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...&rm=full#gid=0
Whoa, I am surprised by that, that is major league pricing right there.
How did they get so big out there, and how can they charge that kind of money.

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01-04-2013, 10:26 AM
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Whoa, I am surprised by that, that is major league pricing right there.
How did they get so big out there, and how can they charge that kind of money.
Seattle is like the Saskatchewan of the CFL, it's just on another level relative to the rest of the league's standards. The NHL should NOT think it will pushover the MLS once coming in.

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01-04-2013, 10:43 AM
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Soccer has its own unique fan-base.

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01-05-2013, 09:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackett View Post
There's a thread where market saturation has been discussed for the milwuakee area when it comes to the NHL. This got me thinking of Seattle again. Here's one of the best markets in america in terms of fan support.

The NHL won't come without the NBA, which already has strong roots in the city, and they never left due to a lack of fan support.

The Seahawks do really well,as do most nfl teams

The Mariners are not doing so hot, but the instant they stop being perennial doormats, the fans will be back in that beautiful ballpark. Again, they have deep roots in the city.

The Sounders are a revelation that puts other franchises of that league to shame. By far, the best followed MLS franchise in north america, and its not even remotely close.

Having said all that, where does the NHL fit in? You could argue that this market has reached its saturation point. Funny how timing can make a great deal of difference. Had the NHL broke in before the MLS had a chance to find its niche, it could be the NHL that we would be talking about as the massive hit.

Can the NHL manage to build a large base in this market?
Realistically... the lack of an NBA team should be a selling point for the NHL...Yes, it makes building an arena much tougher, but you mention all those teams.... and they're all summer sports. There's a void in Seattle in terms of winter sports.

That being said, with an NBA team, I think it becomes much more questionable as to whether they can support all 5.

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