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F Chris Kreider (2009, 19th overall, NY Rangers) II -"What's the big deal," you ask?

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Old
01-03-2013, 11:07 PM
  #401
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Originally Posted by 7even View Post
Statistically, you can't prove that. That's a nonfalsifiable statement and can't be used in support of your argument. That'd be like me saying that ghosts exist because you can't prove they don't exist.
I have provided proof that since 1993, NHL rookies who score five or more goals in the playoffs end up becoming top-6 NHL goal scorers.

Unless you think Kreider will end up like Warren Rychel.

Highly, highly doubtful.

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01-03-2013, 11:13 PM
  #402
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
He was 10th in TOI (among all forwards for NYR) and 7th in points.

How is that considered solid?

He got 5 goals sure but like it has been mentioned 18 games is a smaller sample size than say 30 and if that really was his level you would think he might be more than 10th in TOI right?
Tied for most goals by a rookie
Tied got most PP goals by a rookie
Tied for 2nd most GWG by a rookie

35 rookies participated in last season's playoffs.

There's a reason why rookies forwards dont do well in the postseason. It's because they're rookie forwards.

Kreider was placed in the lineup to score goals and provide offense. Please tell me how besting all but two of your peers in that regard is anything but solid, especially for somebody who never played in the NHL before.

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01-03-2013, 11:15 PM
  #403
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Originally Posted by DropkickQuinn View Post
Kreider looked good in his playoff stint, but he was not productive. You can't call being on pace for 30-35 points over a full season "productive".
There's a reason why the NHL keeps rookie stats. It's not for ***** and giggles. The league (like most sports organizations) tracks the production of novice/beginner players.

Thats why they award rookies at the end of the season, and tracks their stats seperately.

For a rookie, Kreider was extremely productive.

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01-03-2013, 11:17 PM
  #404
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
As mentioned before, Kreider scoring 5 goals in a postseason as a rookie has only been accomplished by 0.03 pct of those in his category over the last 19 postseasons.

I cant explain why more NHL rookies who have had better collegiate careers and better AHL careers that Kreider didnt have as good a postseason as Kreider had in terms of goal scoring.

I mean, we're talkimng about 99 percent of all NHl rookies since 1993 didnt reach the 5-goal mark. Sure many had better overall production in terms of assists or points, but Kreider is being groomed as a goal scorer, so while his stats may look Cy Youngish, in reality, who cares if he scored more goals than virtually all of his peers over a 20-year span?
He played more games...

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01-03-2013, 11:20 PM
  #405
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Because as we all know, those guys never get anything wrong.

No, it hasnt. You've provided one decent example of a player in the past producing as averagely in college as Kreider has(Guerin). You're entire argument is based on the wishful thinking that Kreider is the exception, not the rule. Sorry, but you cannot count on that.

And in your world, 114 games of 0.81 PPG college production mean nothing. But 18 games of 0.32 PPG NHL productin(while shooting 17% and given 70% offensive zone starts) are all you need to see.

Show me where I said they mean nothing. I'll wait.

Again, because they are always right.

And yet again you fall back on this garbage point. The fact that I'm a fan of the Dallas Stars has absolutely no impact on my opinion. None whatsoever. I dont hold a grudge or dislike the Rangers, they arent even in the same conference. Facts are facts. The team that I or anyone else are a fan of doesnt change them.

Oh yeah, and it looks like my 'supporters' are still here.
The people who rank, scout and assess Kreider were probably impressed by his postseason. Based off the statistical research I provided (free of charge, of course), it shows that Kreider accomplished something only a select few have in recent memory. It just so happens that those select few (the bulk) were either highly-rated prospects or 1st round draft picks (or both).

I'd like to think that the people who rank and assess prospects put a little effort into their rankings and not just throw darts at a wall.

If the rankings were based off of last season, Kreider is unquestionably deserving of accolades.

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01-03-2013, 11:21 PM
  #406
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Originally Posted by candyman82 View Post
Clarify what you define as "highly rated prospects", "solid offensive postseasons", and "very good careers".
Cut and past the names I mentioned into the search bar:

http://www.hockeyreference.com

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01-03-2013, 11:22 PM
  #407
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Originally Posted by CanadienShark View Post
It's actually more about proving that someone WILL produce. It's not as though Kreider is destined for stardom. You can't ask someone to prove why a player will not produce. That's just a silly question.
I never said he was. History, however, is on his side.

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01-03-2013, 11:29 PM
  #408
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Originally Posted by CowbellConray View Post
So what we have here is one person defending Kreider to his grave, by honestly being a hypocrite, while several posters are debunking everything he has said.

Look they aren't saying he is going to bust, they are saying he isn't the 11th best prospect in the world. He is around 25.

Can you stop being a baby and take him still being a good prospect but not being a really good one?

It really doesnt matter where he's ranked. What matters is that he stays healthy. No matter what nonsense goes on in the AHL, whenever the NHL resumes, kreider will be an NHL player.

And if you take the historical context of his production as an NHL rookie into consideration, coupled with the fact that the Rangers are one of the better teams in the league, it's pretty simple to understand why objective analysts expect Kreider to perform well as an NHL'er this season.

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01-03-2013, 11:40 PM
  #409
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
History, however, is on his side.
It really isn't, when you actually consider any decent sample size. Funny though, now all of a sudden you want to play the odds and use history, yet wanted no part of it as I was making my points.

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01-03-2013, 11:42 PM
  #410
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
I have provided proof that since 1993, NHL rookies who score five or more goals in the playoffs end up becoming top-6 NHL goal scorers.

Unless you think Kreider will end up like Warren Rychel.

Highly, highly doubtful.
What were the junior/college scoring numbers for this players? Did they put up mediocre PPGvaverages before making the NHL as Kreider has?

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01-03-2013, 11:44 PM
  #411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
I'm ignoring AHL history. I dont care about it. Never have.

NHL history is what I care about. Always have. The Bob Joyces and Pat Flatleys and Dan Quinns of the world achieved their rookie success in an offensive era that might have well been considered the Stone Age when compared to the expected statistical output of Dead Puck/Post-Lockout NHL hockey.

If you read the above post (with pure factual data), the likelihood that Kreider moves on to become a productive NHL goal scorer (20-30 range) is higher than him becoming some overrated top-10 prospect bust.
What is it with you guys and your strawmen? Where have I said he's going to be a bust?

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01-03-2013, 11:44 PM
  #412
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Originally Posted by candyman82 View Post
He played more games...
Kreider is the only NHL rookie in the last 20 years to play 18 games?

Interesting.

For 2012's sake:

Goals per game:

Henrique 0.21
King 0.25
Lewis 0.15
Schenn 0.27
Read 0.27
Kreider 0.28

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01-03-2013, 11:47 PM
  #413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Kreider is the only NHL rookie in the last 20 years to play 18 games?

Interesting.

For 2012's sake:

Goals per game:

Henrique 0.21
King 0.25
Lewis 0.15
Schenn 0.27
Read 0.27
Kreider 0.28
I'm guessing he meant played more games in the playoffs. How many of those 600 rookies you referenced played in the playoffs their rookie season? That would be a much better comparison to make

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01-03-2013, 11:51 PM
  #414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
It really isn't, when you actually consider any decent sample size. Funny though, now all of a sudden you want to play the odds and use history, yet wanted no part of it as I was making my points.
Sample sizes have nothing to do with it. The most games any NHL rookie can play in the postseason in 28.

Whether they played one game or 28 or 15 or 19 or 11, NHL rookies over the last 20 years who score 5 goals or more in a postseason go on to become top-3 forwards. If you want to cling to the chance that Kreider becomes like Warren Rychel or Ville Leino, then be my guest. History and the odds wont be on your side on that one

The list of those forwards is in black and white. In fact, it's been provided multiple times in this thread.

You use AHL history. Sorry, but I dont. I'm really sorry for you that Kreider hasnt played more NHL games. Maybe that would help you out.

I guess what you can do is find all of the players in the last 20 years who had 11 points in their first 30 AHL games, and what percentage of those players when on to become NHL top-3 or top-6 forwards

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01-03-2013, 11:54 PM
  #415
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
I'm guessing he meant played more games in the playoffs. How many of those 600 rookies you referenced played in the playoffs their rookie season? That would be a much better comparison to make
All of them. It's well over 600. I just evened it out.

Every year anywhere from 35-45 rookies since 1994 play in the postseason (not counting goalies).

16 playoff teams.

You can do the research if youd like. It's simple.

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01-04-2013, 12:08 AM
  #416
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Sample sizes have nothing to do with it. The most games any NHL rookie can play in the postseason in 28.

Whether they played one game or 28 or 15 or 19 or 11, NHL rookies over the last 20 years who score 5 goals or more in a postseason go on to become top-3 forwards. If you want to cling to the chance that Kreider becomes like Warren Rychel or Ville Leino, then be my guest. History and the odds wont be on your side on that one

The list of those forwards is in black and white. In fact, it's been provided multiple times in this thread.

You use AHL history. Sorry, but I dont. I'm really sorry for you that Kreider hasnt played more NHL games. Maybe that would help you out.

I guess what you can do is find all of the players in the last 20 years who had 11 points in their first 30 AHL games, and what percentage of those players when on to become NHL top-3 or top-6 forwards
I'm not using AHL history. That's another strawman. I'm using(and valuing) his 114 game college career more than I'm valuing his 18 game playoff appearance, where he shot a likely unsustainable 17%, had 70% offensive zone starts, and still produced at a 3rd line rate. You can "not care" about shooting % and zone starts all you want, it won't change the validity that they both have.

History is definitely on my side when it comes to players who don't produce at lower levels, and what they most likely end up producing at the highest level in the world.

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01-04-2013, 12:09 AM
  #417
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
What were the junior/college scoring numbers for this players? Did they put up mediocre PPGvaverages before making the NHL as Kreider has?
CHL and NCAA are not comparable.

PPG averages mean nothing if one guy played in the defense-poor QMJHL and the other guy played in the low-scoring ECAC.

The NHL is the NHL. Kreider's accomplishment is spanned over three significant eras in NHL history -- pre-Dead Puck, Dead Puck and post-lockout.

Go to the History board and anybody there can give you a quick lesson on how to compare statistics from different eras.

The focus isnt on actual production, but where that player ranked among his peers.

For example, Mathieu garon was one of the worst statistical goalies in the NHL in 2012, yet his GAA whould have been 4th in the league in 1991.

Mike Richter, OTOH, would have placed 43rd of 46 in the NHL in 2012 with his 1991 GAA of 3.12. In 1991 He was 11th of 40 and a vezina Finalist

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01-04-2013, 12:11 AM
  #418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
All of them. It's well over 600. I just evened it out.

Every year anywhere from 35-45 rookies since 1994 play in the postseason (not counting goalies).

16 playoff teams.

You can do the research if youd like. It's simple.
Eliminate defenseman from that 600. Obviously comparing forwards and dmen in this instance isn't valid at all. Then, how many if those remaining rookies played the number if playoff games that Kreider did?

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01-04-2013, 12:15 AM
  #419
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
I'm not using AHL history. That's another strawman. I'm using(and valuing) his 114 game college career more than I'm valuing his 18 game playoff appearance, where he shot a likely unsustainable 17%, had 70% offensive zone starts, and still produced at a 3rd line rate. You can "not care" about shooting % and zone starts all you want, it won't change the validity that they both have.

History is definitely on my side when it comes to players who don't produce at lower levels, and what they most likely end up producing at the highest level in the world.
Nonsesne. It's already been statistically proven that Kreider was one of the best Freshman goal scorers in the nation in 2010, and was one of the best goal scorers in the nation as a Junior. Go back and read the stats I already provided you.

All that you have is Kreider's mediocre sophomore season.

Here's an idea:

Why dont you back up your claim that he was mediocre in college with some rankings, such as where did he rank compared to the rest of his team, his conference and the entire NCAA.

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01-04-2013, 12:27 AM
  #420
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Eliminate defenseman from that 600. Obviously comparing forwards and dmen in this instance isn't valid at all. Then, how many if those remaining rookies played the number if playoff games that Kreider did?
Kinda useless request. Number of games played doesnt change the quality of the players who did so.

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01-04-2013, 12:33 AM
  #421
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Kinda useless request. Number of games played doesnt change the quality of the players who did so.
Your whole point was to show how few rookies have scored 5 goals in the postseason. You don't think games played is maybe a little important? So you are fine equating a player who scored 5 goals in 18 games with one who scored say 2 goals in 6 games? You think it's valid to compare the two equally?

And that doesn't even take into account things like ice time, linemates, and zone starts. You're entire 0.03% point is flawed as it doesn't come close to taking into account all kinds of factors to make your comparison actually valid.

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01-04-2013, 12:45 AM
  #422
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Your whole point was to show how few rookies have scored 5 goals in the postseason. You don't think games played is maybe a little important? So you are fine equating a player who scored 5 goals in 18 games with one who scored say 2 goals in 6 games? You think it's valid to compare the two equally?

And that doesn't even take into account things like ice time, linemates, and zone starts. You're entire 0.03% point is flawed as it doesn't come close to taking into account all kinds of factors to make your comparison actually valid.
Lots of rookies make it to the CF since 1993.

Out of the ones who made it that far, only a handful were able to produce in the goal department like Kreider.

That handful just happen to be pretty productive NHL offensive talents. Sorry that you just cant accept it.

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01-04-2013, 12:53 AM
  #423
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I'm beginning to think that claiming "strawman" is in itself a strawman.

This thread has opened the door to advancements in philosophy.
At a minimum, at least he finally realizes the important little nugget to remember when comparing statistical data from different eras.

At least I hope so.

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01-04-2013, 01:02 AM
  #424
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
At a minimum, at least he finally realizes the important little nugget to remember when comparing statistical data from different eras.

At least I hope so.
All I know is one side is gonna have some really nice bump material down the line when his career really gets going. I hope it's us

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01-04-2013, 01:34 AM
  #425
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Lots of rookies make it to the CF since 1993.

Out of the ones who made it that far, only a handful were able to produce in the goal department like Kreider.

That handful just happen to be pretty productive NHL offensive talents. Sorry that you just cant accept it.
Your whole point has been proven to be completely flawed. You've left out way too many factors.

That, and its quite dubious to say that Brian Smolinski(0.61 career PPG), Dainus Zubrus(0.50 PPG), Richard Zednik(0.50 PPG), and Brad Marchand(0.56 PPG, although he's only 24) are all 1st liners. Talk about skewing and cherry-picking stats.

Answer me this: What do you realistically seeing Kreider's typical offensive season being?

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