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Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

F Chris Kreider (2009, 19th overall, NY Rangers) II -"What's the big deal," you ask?

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Old
01-04-2013, 01:34 AM
  #426
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Unsustainable shooting percentage.

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01-04-2013, 01:46 AM
  #427
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The answer to this thread is very simple...

The combination of his ELITE speed, good shot, work ethic and hockey sense, combined with the fact that (this is important) he will get a top 6 roster spot along side a star rich Rangers team, make him a top prospect.

There may be better single prospects (Huberdeau for example) , but Kreider is likely the one in the absolute best situation, and has the tools to make the best of it all.

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01-04-2013, 01:51 AM
  #428
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Just off the top of my dome piece:

Andrei Kostitsyn
Tomas Fleischmann
Alex Burrows
David Desharnais
Michael Ryder
Mark Streit
Ryan Kesler
Nathan Horton
Brandon Sutter

All had really really crappy or really "mediocre" starts to their AHL careers

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01-04-2013, 02:13 AM
  #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Your whole point has been proven to be completely flawed. You've left out way too many factors.

That, and its quite dubious to say that Brian Smolinski(0.61 career PPG), Dainus Zubrus(0.50 PPG), Richard Zednik(0.50 PPG), and Brad Marchand(0.56 PPG, although he's only 24) are all 1st liners. Talk about skewing and cherry-picking stats.

Answer me this: What do you realistically seeing Kreider's typical offensive season being?
I'm flawed?

Make up your mind -- are you saying he won't ever be a 1st line talent or a career first line talent? All of the above were at one point of their careers played consistently on a top line.

You're really reaching now. You do realize that all the rookies who scored five or more goals since 1994 all played a full or close to a full NHL season before playing one second of NHL postseason ice time?

You've already been proven wrong that he was "mediocre in his freshman year -- All Hockey East rookie team. End of story.

You've already been proven wrong that he was mediocre in his junior season (team leader in scoring and 2nd team all Hockey east -- all 1st team forwards were seniors)

Youve already been proven wrong that his 2012 postseason was in fact productive. I have no idea what planet a rookie who leads his peers in goals is considered "unproductive" or "mediocre"

And we've also debunked your theory that it's impossible for a top prospect to struggle in the AHL in his first year out of college or CHL, then produce as an elite NHL and/or 1st line talent.


Last edited by GWOW: 01-04-2013 at 02:21 AM.
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01-04-2013, 02:29 AM
  #430
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I don't think Kreider's shot gets enough credit. People keep saying his goals from the perimeter are weak. Well they keep going in, so every goalie ever must suck including Marty Brodeur.

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01-04-2013, 08:06 AM
  #431
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I don't think Kreider's shot gets enough credit. People keep saying his goals from the perimeter are weak. Well they keep going in, so every goalie ever must suck including Marty Brodeur.
People also said Phil Esposito scored nothing but garbage goals and Sidney Crosby is better than Wayne Gretzky because goalies stunk in the 1980s.

The only reason why this thread exists is because people believe Kreider is an overrated prospect based off his AHL stint. Too bad nobody took the time out, maybe 10 or so minutes to research that the precedent was set a long time ago for top-rated prospects who struggle as rookies in the AHL but still go on to become top-flight NHl players.

His detractors make zero sense when talking about his college game. If he was an "average" or "mediocre" college player, then why the hell did he rise in the prospect rankings from draft day to last year? If his postseason wasnt a big deal or "unimpressive", then why was Sather, Torts and the lost of the Rangers brass guaranteeing Kreider a roster spot for 2013 on a 50-win team?

The Rangers, if people around here actually knew something about the organization, just dont hand top-9 roster spots to kids straight out of college. Stepan and Del Zotto are the only ones i can think of, and both are two of the better young players in the game. If they think Kreider is also deserving of that kind of promotion/responsibility, then I'm going to side with the guys who get paid to assess players.

The Rangers could have very easily plucked somebody from the AHL to replace hagelin last postseason. Sometimes you have to ask yourself why they picked Kreider if his college performance was unimpressive. I think the result speaks for itself.

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01-04-2013, 08:24 AM
  #432
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People loves to panic for nothing. You look at his attributes and KNOW that he will succeed in a higher league. At worst...is he the type of player that thrives more when paired with better players? If so...how's that bad? On which line is he playing with in the AHL?

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01-04-2013, 08:37 AM
  #433
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Jordan Staal - 82 goals and 120 points next season! After all, he showed that he was more than a point per game player against the Flyers in the playoffs.

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01-04-2013, 08:38 AM
  #434
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Quote:
Kreider is more suited to the pro game than the college game. We were seriously considering drafting him (in the first round of the 2009 Draft), and I interviewed him at the Combine. It doesn't surprise me that he experienced so much success so quickly although I was a bit surprised by some of the goals he scored. He's made for the NHL, and his size and attributes translate.

He's an unbelievable kid who has great tools and a good work ethic. He is going to have a great career and I'm happy for him because he's such a good kid.
Mark Yannetti - Los Angeles Kings co-director of amateur scouting

http://www.salemnews.com/sports/x234...ative-Yannetti

Assuming they wouldn't have acquired another 1st rounder that means they might have drafted him with the 5th overall if Schenn wasn't there.

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01-04-2013, 09:04 AM
  #435
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
I'm flawed?

Make up your mind -- are you saying he won't ever be a 1st line talent or a career first line talent? All of the above were at one point of their careers played consistently on a top line.
None of those guys were 1st line players.

Quote:
You've already been proven wrong that he was "mediocre in his freshman year -- All Hockey East rookie team. End of story
Yeah, that doesnt exactly 'prove me wrong.' You repeating it doesnt suddenly make it true.

Quote:
You've already been proven wrong that he was mediocre in his junior season (team leader in scoring and 2nd team all Hockey east -- all 1st team forwards were seniors)
Another strawman. Show me where I said his junior season was mediocre.

Quote:
Youve already been proven wrong that his 2012 postseason was in fact productive. I have no idea what planet a rookie who leads his peers in goals is considered "unproductive" or "mediocre
Oh I dont know, maybe it was the 32 point pace he produced at that he produced at in the playoffs.

Quote:
And we've also debunked your theory that it's impossible for a top prospect to struggle in the AHL in his first year out of college or CHL, then produce as an elite NHL and/or 1st line talent.
I didnt say it was impossible. I said its very rare. And yet again, I wasnt talking about the AHL. I was talking about overall lack of production in juniors or college. I specifically said several times that of course there are exceptions. You just cant count on anyone being the exception and not the rule.

I'll ask again. What do you realistically see Kreider's typical offensive season being?

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01-04-2013, 09:30 AM
  #436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Eliminate defenseman from that 600. Obviously comparing forwards and dmen in this instance isn't valid at all. Then, how many if those remaining rookies played the number if playoff games that Kreider did?
Well, here's a brief list of guys who have produced at a similar or better pace than Kreider, but didn't have the good fortune of making it to the conference finals.

- Kyle Clifford - 3 goals in 6 games (2010-11)
- Gabriel Bourque - 3 goals in 10 games (2011-12)
- Brandon Dubinsky - 4 goals in 10 games (2007-08)
- Ben Smith - 3 goals in 7 games (2010-11)
- Jochen Hecht - 2 goals in 5 games (1998-99), then 4 goals in 7 games (1999-00)
- Peter Regin - 3 goals in 6 games (2009-10)
- Marty Reasoner - 2 goals in 7 games (1999-00)
- Jan Hrdina - 4 goals in 13 games (1998-99)
- Patrick Poulin - 2 goals in 7 games (1991-92, and only had 1 regular-season game. He was also 18 at the time.)
- Rene Corbet - 3 goals in 8 games (1995-96; only played a handful of games en route to a Colorado Stanley Cup)
- Brian Rolston - 2 goals in 6 games (1994-95; same situation as Corbet)

Hell, let's throw in some defensemen.
- Karl Dykhuis - 4 goals in 15 games (1994-95)
- Mike Rathje - 5 goals in 11 games (1994-95)

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01-04-2013, 09:33 AM
  #437
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nki View Post
Mark Yannetti - Los Angeles Kings co-director of amateur scouting

http://www.salemnews.com/sports/x234...ative-Yannetti

Assuming they wouldn't have acquired another 1st rounder that means they might have drafted him with the 5th overall if Schenn wasn't there.
Is that from the same guy that decided that taking Thomas Hickey at 4th overall was a good idea as well?

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01-04-2013, 09:46 AM
  #438
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this thread looks like someone puked all over it.

Kreider will be a very good player. Much to the chagrin of all the geeks in this thread puking up pointless stats.

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01-04-2013, 10:11 AM
  #439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KreiMeARiver View Post
this thread looks like someone puked all over it.

Kreider will be a very good player. Much to the chagrin of all the geeks in this thread puking up pointless stats.
Except they arent pointless. History repeatedly shows that an overall lack of production in juniors or college most likely leads to an overall lack of production at the highest level in the world.

Im sure KreiMeARiver is being totally unbiased here.

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01-04-2013, 10:12 AM
  #440
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Well, here's a brief list of guys who have produced at a similar or better pace than Kreider, but didn't have the good fortune of making it to the conference finals.

- Kyle Clifford - 3 goals in 6 games (2010-11)
- Gabriel Bourque - 3 goals in 10 games (2011-12)
- Brandon Dubinsky - 4 goals in 10 games (2007-08)
- Ben Smith - 3 goals in 7 games (2010-11)
- Jochen Hecht - 2 goals in 5 games (1998-99), then 4 goals in 7 games (1999-00)
- Peter Regin - 3 goals in 6 games (2009-10)
- Marty Reasoner - 2 goals in 7 games (1999-00)
- Jan Hrdina - 4 goals in 13 games (1998-99)
- Patrick Poulin - 2 goals in 7 games (1991-92, and only had 1 regular-season game. He was also 18 at the time.)
- Rene Corbet - 3 goals in 8 games (1995-96; only played a handful of games en route to a Colorado Stanley Cup)
- Brian Rolston - 2 goals in 6 games (1994-95; same situation as Corbet)

Hell, let's throw in some defensemen.
- Karl Dykhuis - 4 goals in 15 games (1994-95)
- Mike Rathje - 5 goals in 11 games (1994-95)
See GWOW, this is why your whole 0.03% point is completely and totally flawed.

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01-04-2013, 10:22 AM
  #441
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
See GWOW, this is why your whole 0.03% point is completely and totally flawed.
I can guarantee you that the next response to this will be:

"Did any of them play regular-season games that year? That's what I thought."

or

"If they were so good, why didn't they make the conference finals that year?"

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01-04-2013, 10:26 AM
  #442
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
OK...Back from vacation. Hope everybody had a fun NYE. I know i did.

Anyway:



Nobody said it's great. But his goal production was very rare for a rookie -- hot prospect or not. As mentioned before, NHL rookies just don't show up for an NHL postseason -- NHL regular seasoned or not -- and score goals. They just dont, especially as they get deeper into the postseason and the competition stiffens.

Since 1993 (19 seasons), only 16 NHL rookies (all who already had regular season experience) scored five or more goals. That's out of almost 600 rookies in that span.

That's 0.03% of all NHL rookies since 1993 have scored five or more goals in their first postseason. In fact, if you take away Logan Couture (who was technically a rookie in 2011 but in 2919 scored four in 15 game), the number even decreases.

1993 -- Warren Rychel
1994 -- Bryan Smolinski (1st rounder/1st liner)
1995 -- None
1996 -- None
1997 -- Dainus Zubrus -- (1st rounder/1st liner)
1998 -- Richard Zednik (1st liner)
1999 -- Chris Drury / Milan Hejduk (both 1st liners)
2000 -- Simon Gagne (1st rounder / 1st liner)
2001 -- None
2002 -- Erik Cole (1st liner)
2003 -- None
2004 -- None
2006 -- Pomminville (1st liner)
2007 -- None
2008 -- None
2009 -- Bobby Ryan (1st rounder / 1st liner)
2010 -- Ville Leino
2011 -- Marchand (1st liner)
2012 -- Henrique (1st liner) King

Of the 14 on the list above, 11 went on to be come legitimate NHL top-line talent at some pint of their careers. If you include Couture it goes up to 12 of 15. The jury is still out on King, Kreider and Leino. Rychel (like everybody else) was the beneficiary of Gretzky getting double shifted and Gretzky assisted on four of his seven goals.

So, in almost two decades worth of postseason NHL hockey, 12 of 15 NHL rookies who scored at least five goals (80% not including Kreider) went on to become at some point in their career...top-line talent. How long they were able to sustain being a top-liner inst the question here.

Based off of recent history alone (immediate pre-Dead Puck, Dead Puck and post lockout) it is more than likely that Kreider will develop into a legitimate 20-30 goal scorer and play at some point on a top line (maybe top-6 with top PP unit)

Postseason production and playoff production are apples and oranges. The competition is better. The goaltenders are better. And the element of surprise gets thrown out the window because you play the same team for two weeks at a time.
Nailed it! 10/10!

And it's not just with the NHL so many players in the MLB have had great postseasons and then gotten the HUGE contract in the offseason. Look at Jeff Weaver

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01-04-2013, 03:12 PM
  #443
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Originally Posted by KreiMeARiver View Post
this thread looks like someone puked all over it.

Kreider will be a very good player. Much to the chagrin of all the geeks in this thread puking up pointless stats.
I don't think anybody says he won't be good. His upside is what is being debated here.

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01-04-2013, 03:19 PM
  #444
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I'm not going to touch the previous discussion. All I will say is that every time I watch him it seems apparent that his production is always going to depend on his line mates. Some guys are drink stirrers, Kreider isn't. He has a ton of elite skills, but none of them involve creating offense, at least not with the puck on his stick. He's going to be a force along the boards, he will create space with his speed on the forecheck, he will finish passes when his linemates set him up, he will bang home rebounds in front of the net, and he will just generally create space for his line mates. I don't think he will ever be able to generate offense on his own. You put him on a line with two first liners and I think he will contribute enormously to that line and his production will reflect that. If you put him on a line with grinders or mid level skill guys, then he's not going to show up on the score sheet that often.

You don't typically use a phrase like 'elite complimentary player', but that might be Kreider's ceiling. A guy who will do all the little things at an elite level, and who really changes the dynamic of a line with his size and speed and ability to finish, but who will never be able to do it on his own. I'm ok with that.

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01-04-2013, 03:20 PM
  #445
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I don't think anybody says he won't be good. His upside is what is being debated here.
Most Rangers fans are expecting 25-35G production. I don't see how people are going bat-**** crazy over this.

Aside for a small handful of Rangers fans, our expectations are realistic.

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01-04-2013, 04:54 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by President Van Buren View Post
Unsustainable shooting percentage.
I've seen this mentioned quite a bit in this thread. What exactly makes it "unsustainable?"

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01-04-2013, 04:59 PM
  #447
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
People loves to panic for nothing. You look at his attributes and KNOW that he will succeed in a higher league. At worst...is he the type of player that thrives more when paired with better players? If so...how's that bad? On which line is he playing with in the AHL?
It's the Connecticut Whale. No matter what line he's playing on he's playing on the crappy one

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01-04-2013, 05:00 PM
  #448
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Luke Adam tore up the AHL as a rookie. Buffalo reluctantly trades Adam for Kreider since AHL production means so much. No take backs.

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01-04-2013, 05:03 PM
  #449
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Originally Posted by Kevin8se7en View Post
The answer to this thread is very simple...

The combination of his ELITE speed, good shot, work ethic and hockey sense, combined with the fact that (this is important) he will get a top 6 roster spot along side a star rich Rangers team, make him a top prospect.

There may be better single prospects (Huberdeau for example) , but Kreider is likely the one in the absolute best situation, and has the tools to make the best of it all.
Great post. Kreider is in a perfect situation for a prospect to succeed. It's up to him now. So far he had a real good playoff run last year. I don't see how he cannot do well playing top 6 minutes on this Ranger team.


Last edited by msv957: 01-04-2013 at 05:16 PM.
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01-04-2013, 05:09 PM
  #450
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
I've seen this mentioned quite a bit in this thread. What exactly makes it "unsustainable?"
It's tongue in cheek. It's just the fallback thing you'll hear on HF about any player with a higher shooting percentage.

Aka the Jordan Eberle effect.

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