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Luongo: The Neverending Story

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01-04-2013, 01:27 PM
  #26
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
Luongo is highly unlikely to be bought out based on you evaluating the information and drawing a conclusion? Sort of like what he did, but the opposite?

Sounds like a discussion with different points of view to me. Since we're talking about a situation in the future and don't even have all of the variables, its all postulating.

And no its not based on nothing. As you mentioned, its an evaluation and conclusion based on available information.

It's not something pulled out of left field like, say, Luongo will retire.



If by opposite you mean he's taking an unlikely stance and professing it likely, while I take a likely stance and profess it as likely, then I agree. But is the fact that it's the opposite in that respect make his stance balanced against my own? Or is the fact that he has adopted an unlikely stance, pushed it as likely, make his opinion the outlier? One would think the latter. But hey, if you want to call it balanced, that's completely your opinion and we can agree to disagree.


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Just curious, but when was it confirmed Burke has talked about trading for Luongo? Burke obviously can't say anything because that's tampering, and I don't remember Gillis ever saying anything. Last I remember it was hearsay.

Also, how do you know Burke passed on Vokoun? Pittsburgh traded for him and signed him before he hit the market if I recall correctly.

To me, when Burke says "we believe in Reimer but we need help in goal" (paraphrasing), its him leaning more towards a stop gap solution than anything else. That is, of course, a theory.



Rumours/Hearsay/Reports, from everyone to Millard to Shannon to Botchford to Dater to Maclean and so on... It's out there if you care to look for it.



On Vokoun: One would think that FLA would advertise that Vokoun's rights were for sale, and that GMs were informed of it in order to increase the pick value, so Burke would know about it.

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01-04-2013, 01:29 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
In his defense, it was reported that Burke upped a previous offer when EDM put forth an offer. I'm horrible at posting links, but i believe it was Sportsnet.
That was speculation, wasn't it?

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01-04-2013, 01:34 PM
  #28
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That scenario is not going to happen for the Leafs. The Leafs are not in "win now" mode. It would be a huge gamble for them to take Luongo's contract in the first place, yet alone give up top prospects and/or 1st round picks to do so.

Luongo also does not guarantee a playoff appearance, let alone a cup run.

If the Leafs decide that their current goalies are not developing, they'd be better off throwing a big contract at a UFA goalie. In 2013 alone, we have the following goalies becomming UFAS:

Backstrom, Thomas, Nabokov, Smith, Howard, and Theodore.

In 2014 you have: Lundqvist, Kipprusoff, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokuon, etc..

Basically, my point is for a rebuilding team with big pockets, you have a lot of options and no need to make a rash or immediate decision. Toronto continues to take flack for trading away 1st rounders in the Kessel deal, I just don't see it happening again.
So you just missed the entire point of the post, it was you are making things into a worst case scenario for us, so I did the same for you. I don't think it comes to either for either teams.

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01-04-2013, 01:41 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
That was speculation, wasn't it?
Isn't it all? All i know is they reported it. It's up to us whether we believe or not i guess.

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01-04-2013, 01:41 PM
  #30
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My guess is if this buyout thing goes through that leaves another option. I dont think they would buy him out per se but I do think they could threaten to do it if a team that wants him bad enough but wouldnt be able to sign him in the open market could give a generous offer. At least better than what they would if this option wasnt on the table.

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01-04-2013, 01:41 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
So you just missed the entire point of the post, it was you are making things into a worst case scenario for us, so I did the same for you. I don't think it comes to either for either teams.
I don't see how I'm making things into a "worst case" scenario.

The cap will drop next year. Burrows already has a raise in place. Edler will get a raise. The Sedins (like everybody else) are getting older. These are certain facts, not the worst case from a list of possible scenarios.

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01-04-2013, 01:42 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
If by opposite you mean he's taking an unlikely stance and professing it likely, while I take a likely stance and profess it as likely, then I agree. But is the fact that it's the opposite in that respect make his stance balanced against my own? Or is the fact that he has adopted an unlikely stance, pushed it as likely, make his opinion the outlier? One would think the latter. But hey, if you want to call it balanced, that's completely your opinion and we can agree to disagree.







Rumours/Hearsay/Reports, from everyone to Millard to Shannon to Botchford to Dater to Maclean and so on... It's out there if you care to look for it.



On Vokoun: One would think that FLA would advertise that Vokoun's rights were for sale, and that GMs were informed of it in order to increase the pick value, so Burke would know about it.
Could it be he wasn't interested in another aging goalie with groin issues...ala: Giguere?

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01-04-2013, 01:45 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
If by opposite you mean he's taking an unlikely stance and professing it likely, while I take a likely stance and profess it as likely, then I agree. But is the fact that it's the opposite in that respect make his stance balanced against my own? Or is the fact that he has adopted an unlikely stance, pushed it as likely, make his opinion the outlier? One would think the latter. But hey, if you want to call it balanced, that's completely your opinion and we can agree to disagree.

Yes, exactly. You are arguing its unlikely, he believes it is likely. Its balanced in the sense that its two different viewpoints based on the same set of facts spurring a discussion. Again, I lean in the same direction you do on this one but that doesn't mean its not worth discussing.

No insult is intended, but when you shoot down his statement as garbage and then proceed to complain about how it doesn't bring meaningful discussion, you only have yourself to blame.

Point is, a $60M cap isn't the best scenario for Luongo and the Canucks. It will definitely make it more difficult to trade him I would have to think, although I doubt impossible to the point where a buyout would even be necessary.


Quote:

Rumours/Hearsay/Reports, from everyone to Millard to Shannon to Botchford to Dater to Maclean and so on... It's out there if you care to look for it.



On Vokoun: One would think that FLA would advertise that Vokoun's rights were for sale, and that GMs were informed of it in order to increase the pick value, so Burke would know about it.
Ah okay. I've seen them before, but I don't put too much stock in that. Its rumours and speculation on there part for a good chunk of it. Without a CBA even if there were offers I would expect them to change when it is finalized. Burke would likely have interest but as for an actual offer who knows really?

On Vokoun, perhaps Burke was not interested in giving up a pick for a pending free agent? Perhaps he didn't like Vokoun's "bad" season and wanted something more stable? Perhaps he offered something similar but the Pittsburgh deal was taken? Or perhaps he was working on another deal and the timing was just not right?

Just because Burke didn't land Vokoun doesn't mean he wasn't interested.

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01-04-2013, 01:45 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Ok, so i've got to ask (as you keep saying this), what do you think Burke's endgame is? You think he is just waiting and then he'll give Gillis his asking price? Why is it so hard for you to understand that Burke has a top price he's willing to pay, he isn't there yet (or maybe he is), but until someone shows more interest than he is (such was the case with EDM) he isn't going to go higher. Could it possibly be because Burke believes Luongo WILL be traded.....and so if he keeps his offer just above the closest one, chances are his offer will be accepted. NOW, maybe he is wrong and Gillis keeps Luongo....we'll see.



Staying above the next best offer or raising it on his own, we can't know either way. How would we? There's the point about not _knowing_ the next best offer too (I doubt Lowe is sharing with Burke). So it's not like he can bid accurately.



I don't even think Burke knows what his top limit is. He has assets that he won't move, under any circumstances, but I'm not sure he has reasoned down to the bone what he absolutely cannot give up in a package. Or what the point is he won't go beyond overall. We will not know either, not until the pressure of the season is at hand.



It's not a bad strategy to simply keep one's offer above the next best deal, in theory. But in practice, when he knows that Gillis balked all offseason to acquiesce to such a standard, and that Gillis + Luongo have motivations for FLA, is it really the best course of action for _this_ deal? Remains to be seen. If he goes to TOR and not FLA, then he made the right call. If he doesn't...? FTR, I don't doubt that this is exactly what Burke is doing.

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01-04-2013, 01:46 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Isn't it all? All i know is they reported it. It's up to us whether we believe or not i guess.
Yes it is mostly. I just wasn't sure if an offer was actually reported or it was the reporters speculating. Big difference in my mind, but the lines blur far too often in the media. I don't even think its up to believing them or not, its how much stock we put in the opinions/predictions of the various media personalities.

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01-04-2013, 01:50 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Staying above the next best offer or raising it on his own, we can't know either way. How would we? There's the point about not _knowing_ the next best offer too (I doubt Lowe is sharing with Burke). So it's not like he can bid accurately.



I don't even think Burke knows what his top limit is. He has assets that he won't move, under any circumstances, but I'm not sure he has reasoned down to the bone what he absolutely cannot give up in a package. Or what the point is he won't go beyond overall. We will not know either, not until the pressure of the season is at hand.



It's not a bad strategy to simply keep one's offer above the next best deal, in theory. But in practice, when he knows that Gillis balked all offseason to acquiesce to such a standard, and that Gillis + Luongo have motivations for FLA, is it really the best course of action for _this_ deal? Remains to be seen. If he goes to TOR and not FLA, then he made the right call. If he doesn't...? FTR, I don't doubt that this is exactly what Burke is doing.
So do i, but i have no doubt that Gillis is. It would be in his best interest to let Burke know....would it not?

Also, if he ends up in FLA it doesn't mean Burke dropped the ball. If the cost is to high....it's just to high.

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01-04-2013, 02:00 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
Yes, exactly. You are arguing its unlikely, he believes it is likely. Its balanced in the sense that its two different viewpoints based on the same set of facts spurring a discussion. Again, I lean in the same direction you do on this one but that doesn't mean its not worth discussing.

No insult is intended, but when you shoot down his statement as garbage and then proceed to complain about how it doesn't bring meaningful discussion, you only have yourself to blame.



*Sigh* You still don't understand Spasmatic Dan. A viewpoint on its own is not balanced unless it is grounded in precedent. SC's viewpoint is not, mine is. Why? Precedent. Past occurrence. Where is his statement rooted in precedent?



You think a statement is balanced simply because it is diametrically opposed by another, given the same set data? No. The only balance there is that we are on opposite ends of the spectrum. That's not balance in the viewpoint itself. If one professes a low probability occurrence to be high probability, on a whim, how is his own viewpoint grounded in reality?



Again, this is one side adopting the unlikely as likely, and the other as saying the likely is still likely. I'm not sure how you can evaluate the former to be balanced in it's assessment just based on simple logic.





Quote:
Point is, a $60M cap isn't the best scenario for Luongo and the Canucks. It will definitely make it more difficult to trade him I would have to think, although I doubt impossible to the point where a buyout would even be necessary.



The field is still the field. We shall see how difficult it is very shortly, if at all. That's not posturing. That's simply recognizing that not every GM out there is friend to the other, and that each will do what's best for his team, first and foremost.




Quote:
Ah okay. I've seen them before, but I don't put too much stock in that. Its rumours and speculation on there part for a good chunk of it. Without a CBA even if there were offers I would expect them to change when it is finalized. Burke would likely have interest but as for an actual offer who knows really?

On Vokoun, perhaps Burke was not interested in giving up a pick for a pending free agent? Perhaps he didn't like Vokoun's "bad" season and wanted something more stable? Perhaps he offered something similar but the Pittsburgh deal was taken? Or perhaps he was working on another deal and the timing was just not right?

Just because Burke didn't land Vokoun doesn't mean he wasn't interested.



There could have been a myriad of reasons, but for a 7th round pick and Burke's ability to sell, I'm surprised he didn't acquire Vokoun's rights if that's what he was looking for.


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 01-04-2013 at 02:07 PM.
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01-04-2013, 02:00 PM
  #38
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Yes, exactly. You are arguing its unlikely, he believes it is likely. Its balanced in the sense that its two different viewpoints based on the same set of facts spurring a discussion. Again, I lean in the same direction you do on this one but that doesn't mean its not worth discussing.

No insult is intended, but when you shoot down his statement as garbage and then proceed to complain about how it doesn't bring meaningful discussion, you only have yourself to blame.

Point is, a $60M cap isn't the best scenario for Luongo and the Canucks. It will definitely make it more difficult to trade him I would have to think, although I doubt impossible to the point where a buyout would even be necessary.




Ah okay. I've seen them before, but I don't put too much stock in that. Its rumours and speculation on there part for a good chunk of it. Without a CBA even if there were offers I would expect them to change when it is finalized. Burke would likely have interest but as for an actual offer who knows really?

On Vokoun, perhaps Burke was not interested in giving up a pick for a pending free agent? Perhaps he didn't like Vokoun's "bad" season and wanted something more stable? Perhaps he offered something similar but the Pittsburgh deal was taken? Or perhaps he was working on another deal and the timing was just not right?

Just because Burke didn't land Vokoun doesn't mean he wasn't interested.
The reason is simple though, it literally makes no sense to buyout Luongo, and pay him 40 mill, vs the other worst case trade him for futures, or a 7th, and owe him 10 mil when he retires, again in a worst case.


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I don't see how I'm making things into a "worst case" scenario.

The cap will drop next year. Burrows already has a raise in place. Edler will get a raise. The Sedins (like everybody else) are getting older. These are certain facts, not the worst case from a list of possible scenarios.
They are all facts, but you pushing them into you will have to use these players (as if it is a bad thing) who are 4th line guys already, an saying we will lose these guys (who the team was not going to resign) and all while assuming me keep Lui makes it a worst case.

Most likely we trade him, trade Ballard, this alone frees up 9.7 mil, and would probably be replaced by less then 2 mil is a 7 mil difference. Also assuming the worst case that the cap is 60 mil.

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01-04-2013, 02:05 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
So do i, but i have no doubt that Gillis is. It would be in his best interest to let Burke know....would it not?


No, absolutely not. That would give up his cards, so to speak. It would give Burke absolute certainty in his position. Frankly, I'm surprised you said this. It would seem obvious that Gillis would not give up his position by floating accurate details to Burke. What's more, it's potentially damaging to negotiations with EDM if it were to leak.



Quote:
Also, if he ends up in FLA it doesn't mean Burke dropped the ball. If the cost is to high....it's just to high.


But we know that FLA is not pressured to get Luongo the same way TOR is. IMO, it will absolutely be an indictment on Burke if Luongo goes to FLA instead. The need is less there, yet they walk away with the asset? At a time when TOR is in great need of improvement in net? No, a trade to FLA would definitely be telling.

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01-04-2013, 02:06 PM
  #40
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Isn't Luongo a stop gap?

It's known Burke has inquired about Luongo, But lets get one thing straight, He's not going to pay a king's ransom to get him.
Luongo is signed for about 9 more years. he most certainl is not a stop gap. And assuming he only plays for the next 5-6 years before retiring, that's still longer than most goalies in the league are currently signed for.

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01-04-2013, 02:17 PM
  #41
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Luongo is signed for about 9 more years. he most certainl is not a stop gap. And assuming he only plays for the next 5-6 years before retiring, that's still longer than most goalies in the league are currently signed for.
He's not a long-term solution, but he's also not a short-term stopgap like a theodore, vokoun or nabokov would be. Those are the kind of guys that give you an extra year or two, Luongo will give us 3-4 years of great goaltending, then a couple alright years most likely.

I personally feel the leafs deal will go through, I dont think any 1st picks will be involved(unless they are conditional, i.e the playoffs, even then I dont expect that) I'd expect someone like Bozak and maybe a mid-prospect going the other way as well. I definitely feel like Burke's interested, the UFA route is too risky to wait for, plus this years talent is quite weak when you get rid of the likely resigns. I dont know why everyone is putting our goaltending on the backburner, good goaltending is a necessity for us and will give us a few years to build our goaltending prospects the proper way(AHL, backup goalie for a bit.)

something like 2nd+Bozak+Ashton, fair trade with decent value.

Burke knows how to trade for the most part, he wont give too much to get this guy on our team, there isnt exactly massive competition to get him anyway so the price shouldnt be massive.

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01-04-2013, 02:24 PM
  #42
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Don't forget Columbus is a bit of a wildcard here. They could definitely use Luongo, and if all the offers from other teams are crap (like Bozak, Ashton and a 2) the Canucks could look to move Luongo to Columbus and threaten him with waivers if he doesn't waive his NTC (with Columbus likely picking him up there).

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01-04-2013, 02:25 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by rdawg1234 View Post
He's not a long-term solution, but he's also not a short-term stopgap like a theodore, vokoun or nabokov would be. Those are the kind of guys that give you an extra year or two, Luongo will give us 3-4 years of great goaltending, then a couple alright years most likely.

I personally feel the leafs deal will go through, I dont think any 1st picks will be involved(unless they are conditional, i.e the playoffs, even then I dont expect that) I'd expect someone like Bozak and maybe a mid-prospect going the other way as well. I definitely feel like Burke's interested, the UFA route is too risky to wait for, plus this years talent is quite weak when you get rid of the likely resigns. I dont know why everyone is putting our goaltending on the backburner, good goaltending is a necessity for us and will give us a few years to build our goaltending prospects the proper way(AHL, backup goalie for a bit.)

something like 2nd+Bozak+Ashton, fair trade with decent value.

Burke knows how to trade for the most part, he wont give too much to get this guy on our team, there isnt exactly massive competition to get him anyway so the price shouldnt be massive.



What is the equivalent of that package to FLA, given now salary can go back and be bought out by VAN? Shore + 2nd + Upshall + Bengtsson? If it is, I hope Gillis takes the FLA package.

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01-04-2013, 02:28 PM
  #44
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Don't forget Columbus is a bit of a wildcard here. They could definitely use Luongo, and if all the offers from other teams are crap (like Bozak, Ashton and a 2) the Canucks could look to move Luongo to Columbus and threaten him with waivers if he doesn't waive his NTC (with Columbus likely picking him up there).


With Davidson now on board in CLB, do they still have the same stigma for NHLers they used to have? Given what JD did for St.Louis, I expect very positive things for CLB now and into the future.


When you get good leadership at the helm of anything, it can change your viewpoint of said place greatly. That was an excellent hire by CLB IMO.

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01-04-2013, 02:42 PM
  #45
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So do i, but i have no doubt that Gillis is. It would be in his best interest to let Burke know....would it not?
Of course it would be, any smart GM would play Teams off each other.

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Also, if he ends up in FLA it doesn't mean Burke dropped the ball. If the cost is to high....it's just to high.
It would mean that he waived for Florida.

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01-04-2013, 02:44 PM
  #46
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something like 2nd+Bozak+Ashton, fair trade with decent value.

Burke knows how to trade for the most part, he wont give too much to get this guy on our team, there isnt exactly massive competition to get him anyway so the price shouldnt be massive.
That is more than fair and will be the approximate return.

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01-04-2013, 02:49 PM
  #47
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something like 2nd+Bozak+Ashton, fair trade with decent value.

Burke knows how to trade for the most part, he wont give too much to get this guy on our team, there isnt exactly massive competition to get him anyway so the price shouldnt be massive.
So a mid 2nd round pick, a 3rd line center who is an upcoming UFA, and a mediocre prospect for an all-star goalie with a good cap hit?

Counter: 2nd + Raymond + Rodin for Lupul

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01-04-2013, 02:55 PM
  #48
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*Sigh* You still don't understand Spasmatic Dan. A viewpoint on its own is not balanced unless it is grounded in precedent. SC's viewpoint is not, mine is. Why? Precedent. Past occurrence. Where is his statement rooted in precedent?



You think a statement is balanced simply because it is diametrically opposed by another, given the same set data? No. The only balance there is that we are on opposite ends of the spectrum. That's not balance in the viewpoint itself. If one professes a low probability occurrence to be high probability, on a whim, how is his own viewpoint grounded in reality?



Again, this is one side adopting the unlikely as likely, and the other as saying the likely is still likely. I'm not sure how you can evaluate the former to be balanced in it's assessment just based on simple logic.


Ah but precedent is but one way to form an opinion among many my friend. This is especially true when discussing a situation that is unprecedented, as a theoretical cap drop with no rollback and amnesty buyouts concerning a long term contract for a guy in Luongo's situation would be.

In actuality I understand your point perfectly, but you are missing mine. Arguing that his prediction is invalid is not the problem. It is in fact the whole point; you arguing your view point. Claiming that it doesn't stir up any meangingful discussion without actually trying to discuss anything is the problem and that's my point.

Its like complaining your fries are cold without trying to cook them.

Quote:

The field is still the field. We shall see how difficult it is very shortly, if at all. That's not posturing. That's simply recognizing that not every GM out there is friend to the other, and that each will do what's best for his team, first and foremost.




There could have been a myriad of reasons, but for a 7th round pick and Burke's ability to sell, I'm surprised he didn't acquire Vokoun's rights if that's what he was looking for.
Indeed, but its fun to speculate. And that's what we're doing since we have nothing concrete.

On Vokoun, it could also have been he didn't want to go to Toronto and wanted to go to a cup contender as well. That's actually my theory, as he did sign a cheap contract with Washington for a shot at the cup which didn't work out.

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01-04-2013, 02:58 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Nuckles37 View Post
So a mid 2nd round pick, a 3rd line center who is an upcoming UFA, and a mediocre prospect for an all-star goalie with a good cap hit?

Counter: 2nd + Raymond + Rodin for Lupul
If the Leafs were a goalie away from being a Stanley Cup contender I think the price would be a lot higher.

As it is, they're nowhere close.

Would the Leafs like Luongo? Yes - he's obviously an upgrade, but they aren't going to trade away a lot of young talent for him since they're a rebuilding team. It wouldn't make any sense.

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01-04-2013, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madmike77 View Post
If the Leafs were a goalie away from being a Stanley Cup contender I think the price would be a lot higher.

As it is, they're nowhere close.

Would the Leafs like Luongo? Yes - he's obviously an upgrade, but they aren't going to trade away a lot of young talent for him since they're a rebuilding team. It wouldn't make any sense.
Then he should say that his offer is the most the leafs could offer, not that it's a fair deal (which it isn't at all).

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