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F Chris Kreider (2009, 19th overall, NY Rangers) II -"What's the big deal," you ask?

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Old
01-04-2013, 06:48 PM
  #451
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Quote:
Originally Posted by President Van Buren View Post
It's tongue in cheek. It's just the fallback thing you'll hear on HF about any player with a higher shooting percentage.

Aka the Jordan Eberle effect.
Ahhhhh.

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01-04-2013, 07:44 PM
  #452
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Tied for most goals by a rookie
Tied got most PP goals by a rookie
Tied for 2nd most GWG by a rookie

35 rookies participated in last season's playoffs.

There's a reason why rookies forwards dont do well in the postseason. It's because they're rookie forwards.

Kreider was placed in the lineup to score goals and provide offense. Please tell me how besting all but two of your peers in that regard is anything but solid, especially for somebody who never played in the NHL before.
Thank you, GWOW. Excellent post.

It's not about the accomplishment to the the drones over there drooling over stats, it's about strictly stats. They look at a score sheet online and that's it.

I'm starting to lean towards the fact that Chaos has never seen Kreider play at all and is basing his opinion (not fact) on what others have said about him on here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
It really isn't, when you actually consider any decent sample size. Funny though, now all of a sudden you want to play the odds and use history, yet wanted no part of it as I was making my points.
Stop talking about sample sizes when you remove parts that disprove your argument.

It's not ok to use a certain sample size, but when you "Broaden the horizon" to his "entire college career" then proceed to not to make note of what he did in his junior year that is causing us to have this discussion, you whine about it.

We get it, you hate Kreider. Go burn posters of him somewhere else.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
What were the junior/college scoring numbers for this players? Did they put up mediocre PPGvaverages before making the NHL as Kreider has?
But did they make the same jump that Kreider did?

By the way, I love how you conveniently ignored my last post, then you ignore the post that GWOW puts up there about the others who also scored 5 or more goals since 93 as a rookie in the playoffs.

By the way, Chris Drury, Bobby Ryan, Milan Hejduk, Simon Gagne, Erik Cole and Jason Pominville were never 1st liners????

You've said some ridiculous things in this thread, but 2 former 40 goal scorers (Hejduk who won a Rocket Richard LMFAO - and Gagne), a power forward that's had 30 goal seasons (Cole), one of the top goal scorers in the NHL since his arrival (Ryan) and a guy who just put up 80 points this year (Pominville) aren't 1st liners?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH WOW.

This guy is unbelievable.

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01-04-2013, 07:46 PM
  #453
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
What is it with you guys and your strawmen? Where have I said he's going to be a bust?
You've indicated that his future production would be that of a 3rd liner.

Now you're gonna start going back on your stance/words?

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01-04-2013, 08:08 PM
  #454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
You've indicated that his future production would be that of a 3rd liner.

Now you're gonna start going back on your stance/words?
I pegged his production as something around what Viktor Stalberg did last season(22 goals, 43 points). And I said I see him as a 2nd/3rd line tweener. I said both of those things earlier in this thread. That's a solid player. Where did I say he was going to be a bust? Please start backing up these claims of yours with some actual quotes. Otherwise, they are just more strawmen.

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01-04-2013, 08:16 PM
  #455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
I pegged his production as something around what Viktor Stalberg did last season(22 goals, 43 points). And I said I see him as a 2nd/3rd line tweener. I said both of those things earlier in this thread. That's a solid player. Where did I say he was going to be a bust? Please start backing up these claims of yours with some actual quotes. Otherwise, they are just more strawmen.
And 2nd/3rd line tweener for his expectations is a bust. He has the skill to be a legit top 6 player and he's expected to be a legit top 6 player.

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01-04-2013, 08:27 PM
  #456
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
And 2nd/3rd line tweener for his expectations is a bust. He has the skill to be a legit top 6 player and he's expected to be a legit top 6 player.
Would a player who is drafted 19th overall be considered a bust when/if he becomes a 20 goal, 40-50 point player?

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01-04-2013, 08:30 PM
  #457
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
And 2nd/3rd line tweener for his expectations is a bust. He has the skill to be a legit top 6 player and he's expected to be a legit top 6 player.
No, its not. Getting a roughly 20 goal, 40-50 point forward in the latter half of the 1st round is kind of expected. That is not a bust. Him being a bust would equate him having 20 point seasons regularly, or obviously not sticking in the league.

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01-04-2013, 08:35 PM
  #458
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If he's a consistent 20 goal player, that's no tweener.

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01-04-2013, 08:37 PM
  #459
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[QUOTE=CM Lundqvist;57111497]
Quote:
I'm starting to lean towards the fact that Chaos has never seen Kreider play at all and is basing his opinion (not fact) on what others have said about him on here.
And yet again, you would be incorrect.

Quote:
Stop talking about sample sizes when you remove parts that disprove your argument.

It's not ok to use a certain sample size, but when you "Broaden the horizon" to his "entire college career" then proceed to not to make note of what he did in his junior year that is causing us to have this discussion, you whine about it.
For probably about the 5th time, what parts am I removing? Guess what, I didnt specifically mentioned his freshman or sophomore year either. Am I ignoring those as well?

Quote:
We get it, you hate Kreider. Go burn posters of him somewhere else.
I dont hate him at all. Its just my opinion that he doesnt have the offensive upside that some others think. Calm down a little.


Quote:
By the way, I love how you conveniently ignored my last post,
Got tired of responding to all of your flat out lies about what I did and did not say.

Quote:
then you ignore the post that GWOW puts up there about the others who also scored 5 or more goals since 93 as a rookie in the playoffs.
Did you not read the last page? All it was was me debunking GWOW's flawed point.


Quote:
By the way, Chris Drury, Bobby Ryan, Milan Hejduk, Simon Gagne, Erik Cole and Jason Pominville were never 1st liners????
Another strawman. Where did I say those players weren't 1st liners?
Quote:
You've said some ridiculous things in this thread, but 2 former 40 goal scorers (Hejduk who won a Rocket Richard LMFAO - and Gagne), a power forward that's had 30 goal seasons (Cole), one of the top goal scorers in the NHL since his arrival (Ryan) and a guy who just put up 80 points this year (Pominville) aren't 1st liners?
I didnt mention any of those guys. I mentioned Smolinski, Zubrus, Zednik, and Marchand as not being 1st liners.

Quote:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH WOW.
Its quite amazing how you can read things I post and literally come up with something completely different that the words that are right in front of you.

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01-04-2013, 08:38 PM
  #460
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
If he's a consistent 20 goal player, that's no tweener.
Thats a matter of opinion. But its definitely not a bust if you draft that player in the latter half of the 1st round.

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01-04-2013, 08:41 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Thats a matter of opinion. But its definitely not a bust if you draft that player in the latter half of the 1st round.
Alright then, if we're saying that his production is at least 20 goals average hypothetically, then I agree, in that scenario, he's not a bust.

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01-04-2013, 08:50 PM
  #462
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I think HF is too harsh on prospects. If a first rounder plays more than 100 games, he is not a bust. Just a disappointment

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01-04-2013, 08:58 PM
  #463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Alright then, if we're saying that his production is at least 20 goals average hypothetically, then I agree, in that scenario, he's not a bust.
Finally, some agreement in this thread

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01-04-2013, 09:03 PM
  #464
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Originally Posted by xander View Post
I'm not going to touch the previous discussion. All I will say is that every time I watch him it seems apparent that his production is always going to depend on his line mates. Some guys are drink stirrers, Kreider isn't. He has a ton of elite skills, but none of them involve creating offense, at least not with the puck on his stick. He's going to be a force along the boards, he will create space with his speed on the forecheck, he will finish passes when his linemates set him up, he will bang home rebounds in front of the net, and he will just generally create space for his line mates. I don't think he will ever be able to generate offense on his own. You put him on a line with two first liners and I think he will contribute enormously to that line and his production will reflect that. If you put him on a line with grinders or mid level skill guys, then he's not going to show up on the score sheet that often.

You don't typically use a phrase like 'elite complimentary player', but that might be Kreider's ceiling. A guy who will do all the little things at an elite level, and who really changes the dynamic of a line with his size and speed and ability to finish, but who will never be able to do it on his own. I'm ok with that.
Perfect analysis.

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01-04-2013, 11:31 PM
  #465
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Originally Posted by xander View Post
I'm not going to touch the previous discussion. All I will say is that every time I watch him it seems apparent that his production is always going to depend on his line mates. Some guys are drink stirrers, Kreider isn't. He has a ton of elite skills, but none of them involve creating offense, at least not with the puck on his stick. He's going to be a force along the boards, he will create space with his speed on the forecheck, he will finish passes when his linemates set him up, he will bang home rebounds in front of the net, and he will just generally create space for his line mates. I don't think he will ever be able to generate offense on his own. You put him on a line with two first liners and I think he will contribute enormously to that line and his production will reflect that. If you put him on a line with grinders or mid level skill guys, then he's not going to show up on the score sheet that often.

You don't typically use a phrase like 'elite complimentary player', but that might be Kreider's ceiling. A guy who will do all the little things at an elite level, and who really changes the dynamic of a line with his size and speed and ability to finish, but who will never be able to do it on his own. I'm ok with that.
Generally agree with this.

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01-05-2013, 09:59 PM
  #466
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Originally Posted by xander View Post
I'm not going to touch the previous discussion. All I will say is that every time I watch him it seems apparent that his production is always going to depend on his line mates. Some guys are drink stirrers, Kreider isn't. He has a ton of elite skills, but none of them involve creating offense, at least not with the puck on his stick. He's going to be a force along the boards, he will create space with his speed on the forecheck, he will finish passes when his linemates set him up, he will bang home rebounds in front of the net, and he will just generally create space for his line mates. I don't think he will ever be able to generate offense on his own. You put him on a line with two first liners and I think he will contribute enormously to that line and his production will reflect that. If you put him on a line with grinders or mid level skill guys, then he's not going to show up on the score sheet that often.

You don't typically use a phrase like 'elite complimentary player', but that might be Kreider's ceiling. A guy who will do all the little things at an elite level, and who really changes the dynamic of a line with his size and speed and ability to finish, but who will never be able to do it on his own. I'm ok with that.
Sounds like Ryan Callahan but faster and bigger. Pretty orgasmic when you think about it

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01-05-2013, 10:07 PM
  #467
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Sounds like Ryan Callahan but faster and bigger. Pretty orgasmic when you think about it
Kreider is not nearly the defensive player that Callahan is/was coming into the league. Callahan doesn't have the same offensive skills.

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01-05-2013, 10:12 PM
  #468
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Originally Posted by Xokkeu View Post
Kreider is not nearly the defensive player that Callahan is/was coming into the league. Callahan doesn't have the same offensive skills.
Right but I mean in terms of being very good complimentary players. Callahan can't carry an offense but puts up real nice numbers with top linemates.

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01-06-2013, 12:15 PM
  #469
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Coming from someone who has been to a bunch of CT Whale games this season...
Krieder looks lazy. Now, I didn't watch him much in the playoffs with the Rangers, but he is exteremely slow when with the Whale. Sometimes he'll try to get too cute and get stripped off the puck, most times when entering the zone. I think his stats do a good job of representing his level of effort on the ice. Of course, this could all be because he doesn't like the setting, would rather play back in college or the NHL, whatever.

Don't get me started on Matt Gilroy, he barely should be in the AHL, nevermind the NHL. He's closing in on minus 20

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01-06-2013, 12:41 PM
  #470
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
I've seen this mentioned quite a bit in this thread. What exactly makes it "unsustainable?"
There's a theory that, all things being equal, an individual player's shooting percentage will fall within a certain area. If it drifts too far in either direction, then it stands to reason that it will eventually correct itself. It's similar to BABIP in baseball (batting average on balls in play, which deals with "pitching luck").

There's certainly something to it, although I think it's both very possible and very easy to oversimplify. I've had good success tracking both hockey and baseball on both ends of the spectrum, although not close enough to 100% (or even 75%) to make it absolute.

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Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
By the way, I love how you conveniently ignored my last post, then you ignore the post that GWOW puts up there about the others who also scored 5 or more goals since 93 as a rookie in the playoffs.

By the way, Chris Drury, Bobby Ryan, Milan Hejduk, Simon Gagne, Erik Cole and Jason Pominville were never 1st liners????

You've said some ridiculous things in this thread, but 2 former 40 goal scorers (Hejduk who won a Rocket Richard LMFAO - and Gagne), a power forward that's had 30 goal seasons (Cole), one of the top goal scorers in the NHL since his arrival (Ryan) and a guy who just put up 80 points this year (Pominville) aren't 1st liners?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH WOW.

This guy is unbelievable.
I like how you ignored my post entirely, containing a huge list of other rookies and first-time playoff performers who didn't come out as first-liners or first-pairing defensemen.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=436

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01-09-2013, 12:51 PM
  #471
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Well, here's a brief list of guys who have produced at a similar or better pace than Kreider, but didn't have the good fortune of making it to the conference finals.

- Kyle Clifford - 3 goals in 6 games (2010-11)
- Gabriel Bourque - 3 goals in 10 games (2011-12)
- Brandon Dubinsky - 4 goals in 10 games (2007-08)
- Ben Smith - 3 goals in 7 games (2010-11)
- Jochen Hecht - 2 goals in 5 games (1998-99), then 4 goals in 7 games (1999-00)
- Peter Regin - 3 goals in 6 games (2009-10)
- Marty Reasoner - 2 goals in 7 games (1999-00)
- Jan Hrdina - 4 goals in 13 games (1998-99)
- Patrick Poulin - 2 goals in 7 games (1991-92, and only had 1 regular-season game. He was also 18 at the time.)
- Rene Corbet - 3 goals in 8 games (1995-96; only played a handful of games en route to a Colorado Stanley Cup)
- Brian Rolston - 2 goals in 6 games (1994-95; same situation as Corbet)

Hell, let's throw in some defensemen.
- Karl Dykhuis - 4 goals in 15 games (1994-95)
- Mike Rathje - 5 goals in 11 games (1994-95)

Yes, they didnt make it to the CF, therefore your examples are useless. You're assuming each player would have continued that production into the CF. Historically, they dont, which is why only a handful of rookies in the last 20 years have been able to equal or best Kreider's production last year.

You keep missing the point. Rookies (especially pure rookies like Kreider was) dont step right into a drive to the CF and score goals. The reason they dont score goals is because their coaches (surprise surprise) dont trust them with enough ice time or in key situations because (surprise surprise) they're friggin rookies.

What Kreider did in last season's playoffs in terms of goal scoring is not only rare, but also an indication that he is in fact worth of he praise he received following the playoffs.

Here are some guys whose teams made it to the CF as rookies and didnt score goals at Kreider's postseason pace:

Offensive Era:

Jagr -- 3 goals in 24 games
Shanahan -- 2 goals in 12 games
Roenick -- 1 goal in 10 games
Lafontaine -- 3 goals in 16 games
Fleury -- 5 goals in 22 games
Tocchet -- 3 goals in 19 games
Murray -- 4 goals in 15 games

Dead Puck:

Daze -- 0 goals in 16 games
Morrow -- 2 goals in 21 games
Tanguay -- 2 goals in 17 games
Gomez -- 4 goals in 23 games
Datsyuk -- 3 goals in 21 games


You want to do statistical research, why dont you name the last 30 rookie goal scoring leaders in the playoffs.

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01-09-2013, 12:51 PM
  #472
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Is that from the same guy that decided that taking Thomas Hickey at 4th overall was a good idea as well?
Are you mocking the Kings ability to scout and develop players? The Kings?

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01-09-2013, 12:59 PM
  #473
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
Except they arent pointless. History repeatedly shows that an overall lack of production in juniors or college most likely leads to an overall lack of production at the highest level in the world.

Im sure KreiMeARiver is being totally unbiased here.
Your view on what "production" is sophomoric. You have yet to prove that Kreider didn't produce as a collegian. You've repeated ignored my posts which showed Kreider was statistically one of the better freshman in the country.

In fact, you've even made the ridiculous claim that production from the 1980s is comparable to that of the 21st century.

In addition to all that, you also ignored the fact that at several current 1st line NHL players had horrible AHL rookie seasons and were top-rated prospects.

See post 428.

(Enter "zone starts" argument)

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01-09-2013, 01:09 PM
  #474
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Originally Posted by Chaos View Post
See GWOW, this is why your whole 0.03% point is completely and totally flawed.
How is it flawed when Kreider did in fact lead (or tied) his rookie class in goals?

I'm not arguing he could have lead his class in goals. I'm saying he did and by doing so, he joined an esteemed group of accomplished forwards.

If Player X hits a rookie-leading 5 HR's in 18 playoff games, and Player Y hits 2 in 5 games, not a single objective fan would say what Player Y did was comparable to what Player X did.

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01-09-2013, 01:22 PM
  #475
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
I can guarantee you that the next response to this will be:

"Did any of them play regular-season games that year? That's what I thought."

or

"If they were so good, why didn't they make the conference finals that year?"

I can only assess Kreider off the NHL games he actually played in. They just happen to be in the over the course of 18 playoff games.

Kreider scored three goals in the CF. How many rookies have done that?

Again, all I'm doing is explaining why he was rated so high. While 18 games isnt a large sample size, 18 NHL playoff games will always trump one or two or three years in the CHL or NCAA when scouts, coaches and GMs assess their and other teams players.

While there are examples of rookies in the regular season who bested Kreider's production and amounted to nothing in the NHL, the list of those who achieved what he did statistically (i.e. lead their postseason peers in goals, assists, points etc) is what separates Kreider from the bulk of prospects who are still playing in either the CHL, NCAA or AHL

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