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Luongo: The Neverending Story

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Old
01-05-2013, 02:07 AM
  #101
marty111
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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
And actually, now that I think about it, we got Luongo at about the same age, and in similar circumstances, to what Schneider is now. Luongo was being moved due to contract disputes and maybe a little bad blood with management, where as Schneider is a rookie sensation that could displace our bonafide number one goalie. Those are the differences, and that Schneider is no longer RFA, but is signed for three years, where Luongo was unsigned, and got 6.75 million in a 47 million dollar cap era.

Not potato=potaatoe, but not apples to oranges either. The Luongo/Kraijeck/6th for Allen/Bert/Auld would apply beautifully there.
Assuming that all those points are the same - although debatable - care to comment on the cap limitations/circumstances when Luongo was traded to Vancouver?

I'm willing to be he also didn't have a 25 team no trade.

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01-05-2013, 02:20 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
Assuming that all those points are the same - although debatable - care to comment on the cap limitations/circumstances when Luongo was traded to Vancouver?

I'm willing to be he also didn't have a 25 team no trade.
Not a perfect match, but it's a lot closer a comparison then Luongo then and now.

Lu made, with a dirt cheap back up (sub 600k/year) the same percentage of our total spending cap (assuming 70 and not 60 or 65) as Luongo now and Schneider at 4 million. He made 6.75 when he arrived, which I think was 47 million dollars, although it may have been lower in his initial season, and we had players like Naslund eating up almost as much (6), as well as Ohlund, Salo, Mitchell and I think Bieksa all making coin in their time here (3.5 for the first three, Bieksa went from ELC up to that soon after, and Edler's 3.25 just expires this year), with Kesler making 1.75, the Sedins making 3.75 (help me out here 'Nucks fans...) and Allen, Bertuzzi and Auld combining to make more (I want to say a total of 9.8 million), but Bertuzzi alone, baggage and all, being worth more then I think Toronto would offer for Schneider.

Schneider has a 25 team no trade?...I'm confused by the last comment I'm afraid.

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01-05-2013, 02:40 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Nuckles37 View Post
If Luongo has such low value, then why do Leafs fans want him?

But obviously all the Leafs players and prospects are god-like, and extremely valuable, so Vancouver should just accept what is offered.
Yea, because that's exactly what I said

Luongo is a good goalie, but his value isn't that high.
He'll produce for the Leafs, but due to several factors is cost Is lowered.

I could be wrong, and he could fetch good value. But I wouldn't bet on it.

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01-05-2013, 03:51 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
The improvement in goaltending is tempting, no doubt. The issue (at least for me) is that I don't believe Luongo to be the correct move at this point due to his age (33, while not old, doesn't leave much time for improvement before the twilight of his career). He's a great goalie and gives the Leafs a good shot at playoffs but the Leafs team is at a point where its still under construction and won't likely hit a position where they are ready to do more than a first round exit for a while yet. In my mind, we need a goalie of the future type (like say a Schneider) much more than a goalie in Luongo's position. If managment believes Reimer is that guy, then a veteran stop gap is in order. Something like what Florida is doing...using Theodore/Clemmensen as stop gaps/mentors while focusing on Markstrom as the goalie of the future - and Florida is further along in their construction than the Leafs are at least in terms of recent results.


Basically, if one of the trades you propose goes down, we end up with a top end ready to compete goaltender in his mid thirties, a defense core that is shakey but loaded with future potential, and a forward group built on a hope and a prayer (and a Kessel) with holes now and in the future.

Unless Burke has some magic up his sleeve to rapidly rebuild the forward group (like a free agency spree) we end up with something that resembles a mess...basically a team in different stages of the hockey life cycle.

Now Burke could easily see it differently than I do. Even then, I don't see him moving Lupul....but I've been wrong before. If he was to acquire Luongo our goaltending immediately gets much better and I like that. I think because of this Luongo is a tempting trade, but not a smart one if its going to damage our already iffy core of players.



Following my horribly long winded post above, I would say that the Leafs range could go as high as a good prospect, a second line player and a 2nd rounder or two (and/or lower prospect). The issue is when you start getting into core players (which Lupul has become for us and which Vancouver likely wants) the prospect of a cheaper stop gap solution while keeping our pieces looks better and better.

Now that's all what I think looks reasonable. As for Burke, I honestly don't know which way he'll go on this. He's always talked about not making moves just to make the playoffs instead of looking at the big picture but if he deems the team ready for the next step, things could get interesting.
I understand fully your concerns, and am no way trying to force you to bow to my demands, but something that has been asked before and never fully answered springs to mind.

While Luongo may not fit perfectly to the leafs plan, is there ever going to be a goalie that does? Who do you think may become available that does? I am not asking for the standard Backstrom Thomas, Smith answer, I am asking for realistic options that fit the ideal situation for you.

I bring this up only cause some have pointed out, when does this player actually become available. I mean any goalie drafted now is probably at least 3 years away, most likely at least 5, which would still make Luongo a perfect option for the interim.

I understand if the price becomes to high, or even if it is not the right time, but leaf fans also need to ask themselves when are we going to get a chance for a guy to carry the mail for 5 years.

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Originally Posted by Phion Keneuf View Post
Yea, because that's exactly what I said

Luongo is a good goalie, but his value isn't that high.
He'll produce for the Leafs, but due to several factors is cost Is lowered.

I could be wrong, and he could fetch good value. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Do you even know what Luongo would fetch in an open market with a say 5 year deal, at his current cap hit? Literally you would start with Rielly/Gardiner and a 1st. We are asking for a lot less then a player of his talent should be getting. With a market of 5 teams, at the very least.

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01-05-2013, 05:13 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
The reason is simple though, it literally makes no sense to buyout Luongo, and pay him 40 mill, vs the other worst case trade him for futures, or a 7th, and owe him 10 mil when he retires, again in a worst case.
Where does that "10M owed to Luongo when he retires" come from?

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01-05-2013, 05:39 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
No I don't consider it doomsday. Contrary to what some think, I believe the proposal will work. I don't think Vancouver will have a problem getting under the cap and I don't know where you got the idea that I did.

What I'm saying is that this scenario is different, and that you can't necessarily judge what will happen so acting like somebody's theory isn't worth your time based on that is a little silly. But hey, you can if you want to.

I don't think Gillis will need to buy out Luongo. I also don't think buying out Luongo would necessarily be a bad idea (assuming he has no takers on Luongo) if it meant he can strengthen his forward group while still maintaining excellent goaltending in Schneider.



The scenario is different, but the effects of the changing environment are not unprecedented. In fact, the compliance in the past lockout was worse IMO. There also hasn't been enough time (1.5 years since there was a 60m cap in 2011) for teams to get out of line with their payrolls. So while I can appreciate that we cannot wholly predict, down to the letter, what will happen based on an exact precedent, we can rationalize enough based on past precedent to disregard rogue and/or completely outlandish flights of fancy when we are presented with them. Which is what I did.


You think that silly, I think it only rationale to dismiss the highly irrational. So agree to disagree. I will not entertain the notion that this is what SC intended, and I am not alone.




Quote:
Funny thing about logic is that you can use it to justify pretty much anything.

I'm not confusing thinking with reasoning. I'm saying that two different people thinking logically can reach different conclusions and that's what allows discussion boards to exist. You've made your point about why you think it is unreasonable, but that doesn't mean everyone should and those who don't are simply out to bother you.



Nothing in SCF's original post is logical. Period. Adopting an unlikely stance as likely is _illogical_. No matter how you try to spin it.



This is not about the altruistic methodology of message boards. It's about one post, completely devoid of logic, masquerading as a logical proclamation. Said post was immediately opposed. As it should have been. That's it.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
I thought the bargain bin price thing was sort of implied by now . Leaf fans also aren't the only ones who want to add Luongo but only at a discount.

I think the issue is that "fair deal" and "market value" get blurred into one.

As for the top bold, you're right every team wants the best deal possible but are willing to give up fair value if it makes sense. What I'm trying to say there is that fair value in a vacuum for a goalie of Luongo's calibre doesn't work for Toronto. All IMO of course.



If it's implied that every leafs fan is bargain bin shopping, why are they continuing to make proposals? Because Canucks fans are in the habit of gifting teams? I disagree though that every leafs fan has had that intention. But it is interesting to hear your take on it.



Your next statement depends on what you consider fair. So what do you consider fair?

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01-05-2013, 08:16 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Phion Keneuf View Post
If Canucks fans like Luongo so much then keep him.

Oh wait, he is inevitably going to be traded, yet you still want full value for him.
Keep dreaming.
this is really the truth especially when the cap goes down. Just cut your losses and take some good depth moving forward.

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01-05-2013, 08:25 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Vitto79 View Post
this is really the truth especially when the cap goes down. Just cut your losses and take some good depth moving forward.

He is inevitably going to be traded, but to who and for what? Who knows? Plenty of time to figure out just what situation is the most beneficial.

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01-05-2013, 08:28 AM
  #109
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for me Burke is a better trader then Gillis is and if they get together--I think Burke will take Gillis to the cleaners --Unless the ownership puts a gun to Burkes head to force to trade for Luong

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01-05-2013, 08:32 AM
  #110
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As John Adams stated: "Facts are stubborn things."

Lou is a former top goalie who is 33 years old with concerns regarding a groin injury who was benched last season during the play-offs and replaced by a rising, young star who is now seen as the team's starter after being signed to a long term $4 million contract.

Prior to the lock out, the Nucks tried unsuccessfully to trade Lou, but were unable to make a deal largely it seems because of his contract which runs another 10 years with a $5.33 million cap hit, but which pays Lou $6.7 million per year through age 40 before tailing off. Canuck fans say that that his buy - out price ( assumed to be in the $40-50 million range under the proposed amnesty terms of the new CBA) is too high and no one would pay it.

Assuming that there is a 2012-13 partial season at a$70 million cap, the Nucks for the balance of the season can afford to keep and pay Lou to ride the pines assuming that Schneider plays consistently well. If Schneider plays inconsistently, then there is an instant goalie controversy. If Schneider cannot handle the starters job with the added pressure of Lou looking over his shoulder and associated locker room distractions, then Lou resumes the starters role with unknown results ranging from paying very well to playing poorly.

Now onto 2013-14, with the new CBA in effect, the Nucks will have $9.3 million tied up in 2 goalies. Schneider has proven to be a solid starter (likely) or crapped out (possible) or somewhere in between. Lou has proven to be solid in spot duty( likely) or returned as a starter with unknown results and is now 34 years old.

I suggest that, in a shortened season with a looming cap reduction, that few major trades will occur during the balance of 2012 - 13, but will await the off-season. Since prior efforts to trade Lou have failed, it is even less likely that he gets moved. That takes us to the off season, when the wealthy teams over the $60 million cap will all be scrambling to shed players and salary,including the Nucks. The teams with cap space will presumably be bargain shopping, which may include other veteran goalies among the cap casualties.

Btw, a growing trend among some teams in the NHL has been towards lower priced goalies, in part due to the success of the Red Wing model and in part because of some flop signings (ask the Flyers).

It is now the off season, please identify for me the teams that are lining up to trade value for a 34 year old, second string goalie with a 9-year contract that many Nucks fans say is way too rich to amnesty if he craps out.
And Btw that is the best case scenario for the Nucks because it assumes that Schneider proved to be the man. The alternative is that they keep Lou and trade/ cut Schneider. In which case, I agree that Lou will not be amestied.


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01-05-2013, 08:37 AM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SufferingCatFan View Post
As John Adams stated: "Facts are stubborn things."

Lou is aformer top goalie who is 33 years old with concerns regarding a groin injury who was benched last season during the play-offs and replaced by a rising, young star who is now seen as the team's starter after being signed to a long term $4 million contract.

Prior to the lock out, the Nucks tried unsuccessfully to trade Lou, but were unable to make a deal largely it seems because of his contract which runs another 10 years with a $5.33 million cap hit, but which pays Lou $6.7 million per year through age 40 before tailing off. Canuck fans say that that his buy - out price ( assumed to be in the $40-50 million range under the proposed amnesty terms of the new CBA) is too high and no one would pay it.

Assuming that there is a 2012-13 partial season at a$70 million cap, the Nucks for the balance of the season can afford to keep and pay Lou to ride the pines assuming that Schneider plays consistently well. If Schneider plays inconsistently, then there is an instant goalie controversy. If Schneider cannot handle the starters job with the added pressure of Lou looking over his shoulder and associated locker room distractions, then Lou resumes the starters role with unknown results ranging from paying very well to playing poorly.

Now onto 2013-14, with the new CBA in effect, the Nucks will have $9.3 million tied up in 2 goalies. Schneider has proven to be a solid starter (likely) or crapped out (possible) or somewhere in between. Lou has proven to be solid in spot duty( likely) or returned as a starter with unknown results and is now 34 years old.

I suggest that, in a shortened season with a looming cap reduction, that few major trades will occur during the balance of 2012 - 13, but will await the off-season. Since prior efforts to trade Lou have failed, it is even less likely that he gets moved. That takes us to the off season, when the wealthy teams over the $60 million cap will all be scrambling to shed players and salary,including the Nucks.

Btw, a growing trend among some teams in the NHL has been towards lower priced goalies, in part due to the success of the Red Wing model and in part be use of some flop signings (ask the Flyers).

It is now the off season, please identify for me the teams that are lining up to trade value for a 34 year old, second string goalie with a 9-year contract that many Nucks fans say is way too rich to amnesty if he craps out.
And Btw that is the best case scenario for the Nucks because it assumes that Schneider proved to be the man. The alternative is that the keep Lou and trade/ cut Schneider. In which case, I agree that Lou will not be traded.
I think he also said

Fact, stats and opinions never make good bedfellows

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01-05-2013, 08:43 AM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
I think he also said

Fact, stats and opinions never make good bedfellows
Well stated. sir. if he didn't, he should have.

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01-05-2013, 08:54 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
I think he also said

Fact, stats and opinions never make good bedfellows
well put
and i loved how Luo aged a year in that post (i felt like i did too)

what do we know about these summer unsuccessful trade attempts by the canucks? I'd like to hear more about that. His groin injuries too ... pls lets hear the inside scoop there.

"second-string goalie on a 9-year contract" is my fav too ...although i believe the popular chorus is "10 year contract" ..but at least the out-clauses in the contract were ignored, as is the fashion amongst bashers.

Now it may well be that teams will be looking to shed players, including the Canucks, but I'd imagine $8M worth of former Fla scrubs in Ballard and Booth would be first in line for buyouts (and ps, having clearly burned us in those trades, you'd think Cats fans would be less sore about the ol' orig Luo trade), versus an elite goalie on a reasonable caphit, and that there would still be teams who could use the latter, esp if they'd bought out their own booths & ballards.

One thing that never gets mentioned in the perpetual Luo debate of "whither elite?" Is the anti-Phx/Nash effect. Ie where those teams have the tendency to make the likes of Smith, Bryz, and even saint Pekka and (heaven forfend) saint Lundy look like gods due to stultifying defensive schemes; playing for the Canucks, as a long line of broken down goalies will contest, is the opposite. The fact that Luongo has put up such consistently excellent stats behind a defense that is average compared to the elite forwards is often ignored here, but not by NHL GMs, I'll wager. Of course the inevitable gaffes are what stay under the microscope...

Anyway, we'll see...

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01-05-2013, 08:56 AM
  #114
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If anyone wants a flashback to how this situation was viewed almost a year ago, I present this thread I started in early February.


http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1095527

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01-05-2013, 09:01 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
If anyone wants a flashback to how this situation was viewed almost a year ago, I present this thread I started in early February.


http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1095527
o man, its like following alice down the rabbithole....lol

i'll go with the guy who said schneider will get traded for parise

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01-05-2013, 09:13 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
well put
and i loved how Luo aged a year in that post (i felt like i did too)
I don't know if you were sarcastic but Luongo turns 34 in april so currently 33y and 34y in the off-season.

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"second-string goalie on a 9-year contract" is my fav too ...although i believe the popular chorus is "10 year contract" ..but at least the out-clauses in the contract were ignored, as is the fashion amongst bashers.
Doesn't the contract have 9y left in the off-season? What out-clauses are there?

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01-05-2013, 10:39 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Pepper View Post
Doesn't the contract have 9y left in the off-season? What out-clauses are there?
1) He'll most likely retire than continue playing past his prime for 1 mil.
2) He doesn't have a NMC, so can be buried in the minors if necessary.
3) A cap floor team like Florida may be interested in him as a veteran backup once the majority of his salary is paid out, so even if he wants to play out his entire contract, he can do so with a team that appreciates his high cap hit and low actual salary.

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01-05-2013, 11:01 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
1) He'll most likely retire than continue playing past his prime for 1 mil.
2) He doesn't have a NMC, so can be buried in the minors if necessary.
3) A cap floor team like Florida may be interested in him as a veteran backup once the majority of his salary is paid out, so even if he wants to play out his entire contract, he can do so with a team that appreciates his high cap hit and low actual salary.
On point #2, he wouldn't clear through waivers, so Vancouver would lose him for nothing under such a scenario. Given the value many Vancouver fans seem to place on him, I might suggest that this doesn't appear to be an attractive option.

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01-05-2013, 11:20 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Fogelhund View Post
On point #2, he wouldn't clear through waivers, so Vancouver would lose him for nothing under such a scenario. Given the value many Vancouver fans seem to place on him, I might suggest that this doesn't appear to be an attractive option.
This would only be for if he wants to continue playing out his contract even though he's no longer able to live up to it. Basically in 5-6 years he can simply be sent to the minors if he doesn't want to retire(And I highly doubt his pride would let him end his career like that).

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01-05-2013, 11:24 AM
  #120
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So the out-clause is Luongo retiring...?

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01-05-2013, 11:27 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
This would only be for if he wants to continue playing out his contract even though he's no longer able to live up to it. Basically in 5-6 years he can simply be sent to the minors if he doesn't want to retire(And I highly doubt his pride would let him end his career like that).
So what you are saying is there are no out clauses currently... Trade him or Schneider, or keep them, which really isn't an option in a low $60million cap era.

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01-05-2013, 11:29 AM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pepper View Post
So the out-clause is Luongo retiring...?
Are you actually not understanding what that poster is saying?


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01-05-2013, 11:32 AM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
1) He'll most likely retire than continue playing past his prime for 1 mil.
2) He doesn't have a NMC, so can be buried in the minors if necessary.
3) A cap floor team like Florida may be interested in him as a veteran backup once the majority of his salary is paid out, so even if he wants to play out his entire contract, he can do so with a team that appreciates his high cap hit and low actual salary.
1 is a big assumption, 2 might not work in terms of $ given what is being discussed in the CBA.

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01-05-2013, 11:33 AM
  #124
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So what you are saying is there are no out clauses currently... Trade him or Schneider, or keep them, which really isn't an option in a low $60million cap era.
I thought we were talking about ways to get out of Luongo's contract length before 9 years, if necessary.

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01-05-2013, 11:34 AM
  #125
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I agree to an extent, but if there is 5 teams, that still creates a bit of a bidding war. Also right there, the leafs would not get him, as if they are all low prices, he goes to FLA. It makes the most sense for many reasons.
That's a big "if".

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