HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > St. Louis Blues
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Lots of wingers; Blockbuster coming?

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
01-05-2013, 01:41 AM
  #26
rumrokh
I Bleed Blue
 
rumrokh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,643
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattyMo35 View Post
If you've watched any of the Rivermen games, you could easily see that he does in fact make the players around him better. Two games against Grand Rapids comes to mind. They simply did not have an answer for him. I'm not sure how many points he had in those games, but he completely dominated every shift. Grand Rapids has quite a few borderline NHL players too(Nyquist, Tatar, Jurco etc) and they couldn't stop him. Even the Grand Rapids announcer was talking about how he was moving the puck at will. I've seen one other game where he took over almost every shift too, but can't remember the team. The points might not be impressive, but his play has been very good. He's almost always one of Peoria's top forwards.
Bingo. Papineau, Trudel, Whitfield, etc. are examples of guys who are able to do well in the minors due to physical skills, but they don't have the hockey sense to do anything in the NHL. Peoria is a bad team and Schwartz doesn't have a lot to work with. For all of the guys who tore up the minors and couldn't hack it at the highest level, there are guys who don't rack up points in the minors, but make an impact in the NHL and never look back. David Backes, for example.

Is that a reason to think Schwartz could or should be a replacement for McDonald in the next two years? No way. If Andy could keep from getting more concussions, he could play at his current level for a long time. Age is just a number for fitness freaks with his speed and intelligence. And I agree that Schwartz, like most young players, will most likely take a few years before he's a serious impact player. I just don't think the NHL/AHL production of players with average or worse hockey sense is relevant to him at all.

rumrokh is offline  
Old
01-05-2013, 10:34 AM
  #27
Celtic Note
Chi Town Bound
 
Celtic Note's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Country: United States
Posts: 8,610
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
Bingo. Papineau, Trudel, Whitfield, etc. are examples of guys who are able to do well in the minors due to physical skills, but they don't have the hockey sense to do anything in the NHL. Peoria is a bad team and Schwartz doesn't have a lot to work with. For all of the guys who tore up the minors and couldn't hack it at the highest level, there are guys who don't rack up points in the minors, but make an impact in the NHL and never look back. David Backes, for example.

Is that a reason to think Schwartz could or should be a replacement for McDonald in the next two years? No way. If Andy could keep from getting more concussions, he could play at his current level for a long time. Age is just a number for fitness freaks with his speed and intelligence. And I agree that Schwartz, like most young players, will most likely take a few years before he's a serious impact player. I just don't think the NHL/AHL production of players with average or worse hockey sense is relevant to him at all.
I would like to add that Schwartz could really benefit by being taken under the wing of McDonald. The mentorship would really help Schwartz. After all, I agree that McDonald is a very intelligent hockey player.

Celtic Note is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 05:06 PM
  #28
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Comparing Schwartz numbers in the AHL to people from the past have to remember the talent in the AHL is increasingly better also with the lockout there are many players in the AHL that normally be in the NHL. The AHL this season is considerably better than the AHL has been in the past.


Now as far as the rest of the team, the Blues have a lot of players to resign at the end of this season. As of right now they only have 12 players signed for next season and are 10 mil below the floor. You can bet we will be much closer to the floor than the ceiling. Andy Mac is the only 'high priced' player coming off the books. Seven RFAs to resign.

Having said that I would not be surprised at all to see Dags or Stewart traded since they will both be RFAs, that trade could wait until the off season but their trade value would drop significantly if it is just for their rights. There are 13 guys in Peoria that will be RFAs at the end of the season, several of them will want a 1 way contract which we cannot afford to do.

I do not expect any blockbusters but I do expect some small trades to save money next season.

sh724 is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 05:14 PM
  #29
Alklha
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,281
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
Comparing Schwartz numbers in the AHL to people from the past have to remember the talent in the AHL is increasingly better also with the lockout there are many players in the AHL that normally be in the NHL. The AHL this season is considerably better than the AHL has been in the past.


Now as far as the rest of the team, the Blues have a lot of players to resign at the end of this season. As of right now they only have 12 players signed for next season and are 10 mil below the floor. You can bet we will be much closer to the floor than the ceiling. Andy Mac is the only 'high priced' player coming off the books. Seven RFAs to resign.

Having said that I would not be surprised at all to see Dags or Stewart traded since they will both be RFAs, that trade could wait until the off season but their trade value would drop significantly if it is just for their rights. There are 13 guys in Peoria that will be RFAs at the end of the season, several of them will want a 1 way contract which we cannot afford to do.

I do not expect any blockbusters but I do expect some small trades to save money next season.
I assume that you have got that the wrong way around, because there is absolutely no chance that we will be closer to the cap floor than the cap ceiling next season.

Alklha is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 06:01 PM
  #30
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
I assume that you have got that the wrong way around, because there is absolutely no chance that we will be closer to the cap floor than the cap ceiling next season.
No I have it the right way, next season the blues are at 32 mil with 11 players to sign. The ceiling will be 64.3 mil the floor 44 mil with the mid point being 54 million. Those 11 players are not going to cost the blues 22 million. While Bergy and Petro will see raises Andy Mac will take a big pay cut or be replaced with some one on an ELC for less than 1 mil, and like I said in my earlier post it would not be surprising to see Stewart's $3 mil replaces with an ELC as well. The ownership does not have a lot of spare cash laying around to spend on players. The owners are looking to make money off of the Blues, it is not just a toy to throw money at like it was with Laurie. In order to be profitable they have to stay close to the floor. This years team was going to be at the cap floor already and with a lower cap floor next year every one should expect the Blues to take advantage of that. In order for the Blues to break even they pretty much have to sell out every game and make it to atleast the 2nd round of the POs. This season they will not make money losing 17 home games + all the negative impacts of the lockout. The increased revenue sharing will help but that will not be seen for a few years. There is the $300 million 'make whole' provision the league has to pay the players. There will be payments from the league to sponsors to help cover their losses because of the lockout. The Blues could not afford $2 mil to pay JD, where do you think they are getting money from to increase players salaries?

After next season the floor will jump quite a bit with the reinstatement of the $16 mil variance in floor to ceiling so the floor will jump quite a bit depending on if the PA uses the cap escalator


Last edited by sh724: 01-06-2013 at 06:18 PM.
sh724 is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 06:16 PM
  #31
Alklha
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,281
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
No I have it the right way, next season the blues are at 32 mil with 11 players to sign. The ceiling will be 64.3 mil the floor 44 mil with the mid point being 54 million. Those 11 players are not going to cost the blues 22 million. The ownership does not have a lot of spare cash laying around to spend on players. The owners are looking to make money off of the Blues, it is not just a toy to throw money at like it was with Laurie. In order to be profitable they have to stay close to the floor. This years team was going to be at the cap floor already and with a lower cap floor next year every one should expect the Blues to take advantage of that. In order for the Blues to break even they pretty much have to sell out every game and make it to atleast the 2nd round of the POs. This season they will not make money losing 17 home games + all the negative impacts of the lockout. The increased revenue sharing will help but that will not be seen for a few years. There is the $300 million 'make whole' provision the league has to pay the players. There will be payments from the league to sponsors to help cover their losses because of the lockout. The Blues could not afford $2 mil to pay JD, where do you think they are getting money from to increase players salaries?
The money situation for this season is fine. Yes, we lose the income from 16 home games, but the players are only getting paid for 50 games and the bulk of the NHL revenue comes in the second half of the season anyway.

Our signed line-up for next season is...

Perron - Backes - Oshie
Schwartz - ??? - Tarasenko
??? - Steen - ???
??? - Sobotka - Reaves
??? - ???

??? - ???
Jackman - ???
??? - Polak
???

Halak
Elliott

That is costing $32,133,334. To add Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Russell and Cole then you are looking at about $44.65m even with Amry's great negotiating skills! So that is already over the salary floor, and we still need 1 defenseman and 6 forwards. Berglund will obviously be one, and if Stewart and McDonald aren't back then we need 2 quality wingers. We also can't just look to ELC's to solve the problems. Long term, their is an importance to have them within the team, but Jaškin and Rattie aren't both going to be ready for full time NHL duty next season, if either is!

Financial prudence is undoubtedly needed, but the only way to keep our salary bill down next season would be to trade off our young, quality assets. Do that, and good luck getting the fans to pay the increased ticket prices.

Alklha is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 06:42 PM
  #32
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
The money situation for this season is fine. Yes, we lose the income from 16 home games, but the players are only getting paid for 50 games and the bulk of the NHL revenue comes in the second half of the season anyway.

Our signed line-up for next season is...

Perron - Backes - Oshie
Schwartz - ??? - Tarasenko
??? - Steen - ???
??? - Sobotka - Reaves
??? - ???

??? - ???
Jackman - ???
??? - Polak
???

Halak
Elliott

That is costing $32,133,334. To add Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Russell and Cole then you are looking at about $44.65m even with Amry's great negotiating skills! So that is already over the salary floor, and we still need 1 defenseman and 6 forwards. Berglund will obviously be one, and if Stewart and McDonald aren't back then we need 2 quality wingers. We also can't just look to ELC's to solve the problems. Long term, their is an importance to have them within the team, but Jaškin and Rattie aren't both going to be ready for full time NHL duty next season, if either is!

Financial prudence is undoubtedly needed, but the only way to keep our salary bill down next season would be to trade off our young, quality assets. Do that, and good luck getting the fans to pay the increased ticket prices.
Do you really think the Blues are going to spend close to $20 million just on defense? That is a little bit unrealistic especially since all 4 of those guys are still RFAs, Maybe if they were UFAs you could consider the Blues spending that money but that is not the case. This off season the cap is going to drop $6 million many teams are going to have to drop salary, the players as a whole are losing 7% of what they previously earned. The next few years of free agency is going to greatly be in favor of the teams and not the players. The market is going to be full of good players looking for work that are going to have to take a pay cut or not play in the NHL. Teams are not going to be spending money on FAs like they have the last few years. Under the old CBA the Blues would be spending more but there is a new CBA. Total contracts are dropping 7%, why would the Blues salaries go up when most teams are going down?

With a new CBA you cannot look at things the same way, just like after the last lockout players as a whole will be making less money for the next couple years. Also just like last time the players that will be hurt the most are RFAs which is what the Blues are full of. With the exception of Andy Mac all the Blues UFAs can easily be replaced.

Finally, I did not say they are going to be at the floor next year I said they will be closer to the floor than the ceiling.

EDIT: just thought I would let you know, you said players are paid for 50 games well that is not the case they are paid based on days on the roster and not # of games played.


Last edited by sh724: 01-06-2013 at 06:49 PM.
sh724 is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 07:00 PM
  #33
Alklha
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,281
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
Do you really think the Blues are going to spend close to $20 million just on defense? That is a little bit unrealistic especially since all 4 of those guys are still RFAs, Maybe if they were UFAs you could consider the Blues spending that money but that is not the case. This off season the cap is going to drop $6 million many teams are going to have to drop salary, the players as a whole are losing 7% of what they previously earned. The next few years of free agency is going to greatly be in favor of the teams and not the players. The market is going to be full of good players looking for work that are going to have to take a pay cut or not play in the NHL. Teams are not going to be spending money on FAs like they have the last few years. Under the old CBA the Blues would be spending more but there is a new CBA. Total contracts are dropping 7%, why would the Blues salaries go up when most teams are going down?

With a new CBA you cannot look at things the same way, just like after the last lockout players as a whole will be making less money for the next couple years. Also just like last time the players that will be hurt the most are RFAs which is what the Blues are full of. With the exception of Andy Mac all the Blues UFAs can easily be replaced.
The Blues salaries are going up for the simple reason that their players are RFA's and we've been getting them at a discount.

You question that we'll be paying close to $20m for D, well break down the numbers and tell me where it is wrong.

Pietrangelo = $6m minimum. Karlsson got $6.5m, Doughty got $7m. Yes, the cap has dropped, to the same number it was when Doughty signed his deal. After what happened with Weber, and the Flyers losing the Kimmo Timonen contract in the summer... I think Pietrangelo has the upper hand in negotiations. We'd be insane to let him become a RFA.

Shattenkirk = $3.5m-ish. 40+ point defenseman 2 straight years. Tough to see it being much less than that.

Russell + Cole = Combined $2.5m minimum. Russell will likely get a modest rise, tough to say what happens with Cole, but can't see it being any less than $1m.

So yeah, unless we move Pietrangelo of Shattenkirk, that is what we will be paying for D. There is no way to avoid it.

Got to say, not even the first day of hockey just the new CBA, and the debates have started again. Got to love it


Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
Finally, I did not say they are going to be at the floor next year I said they will be closer to the floor than the ceiling.

EDIT: just thought I would let you know, you said players are paid for 50 games well that is not the case they are paid based on days on the roster and not # of games played.
Didn't mean to imply you said we'd be at the floor, just saying that we'd be at the floor just with the defensive signings and the other players would take us closer to the ceiling that the floor.

And of course, you are correct about how salary is paid, but you get my point on that

Alklha is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 07:21 PM
  #34
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
The Blues salaries are going up for the simple reason that their players are RFA's and we've been getting them at a discount.

You question that we'll be paying close to $20m for D, well break down the numbers and tell me where it is wrong.

Pietrangelo = $6m minimum. Karlsson got $6.5m, Doughty got $7m. Yes, the cap has dropped, to the same number it was when Doughty signed his deal. After what happened with Weber, and the Flyers losing the Kimmo Timonen contract in the summer... I think Pietrangelo has the upper hand in negotiations. We'd be insane to let him become a RFA.

Shattenkirk = $3.5m-ish. 40+ point defenseman 2 straight years. Tough to see it being much less than that.

Russell + Cole = Combined $2.5m minimum. Russell will likely get a modest rise, tough to say what happens with Cole, but can't see it being any less than $1m.

So yeah, unless we move Pietrangelo of Shattenkirk, that is what we will be paying for D. There is no way to avoid it.

Got to say, not even the first day of hockey just the new CBA, and the debates have started again. Got to love it




Didn't mean to imply you said we'd be at the floor, just saying that we'd be at the floor just with the defensive signings and the other players would take us closer to the ceiling that the floor.

And of course, you are correct about how salary is paid, but you get my point on that
The cap may have been the same when doughty was signed but when doughty was signed players received 57% of HRR now they only receive 50%. What happened with Weber cannot happen again because of contract limits and contract variances. You are not taking into consideration the market. All of the teams close to the ceiling (tor, phi, nyr, mon, etc.) will be dropping salary so will all the teams trying to stay close to the floor (fla, clb, nyi, etc). If we were still under the old CBA you could see teams trying to sign Petro but now all of the rich teams will be cutting salary instead of adding to it. There will be a lot of UFAs for teams to go after, they may not be as good as Petro but they will not cost any draft picks and they will be much cheaper. With the new draft lottery picks will have more value than in past years, offer sheets will be even more rare now than before the lockout.

sh724 is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 08:03 PM
  #35
Mr Dangles
I double dare you.
 
Mr Dangles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Country: United States
Posts: 1,991
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Liut View Post
I hope the Blues sit tight and not make any moves. I want to see Cole play with Petro before making a blockbuster trade and giving away top prospects like Rattie, Schwartz or Jaskin. That's my only fear. The Blues are completely stacked and are ready to start making deep playoff runs and have blue chip prospects waiting.
Exactly this. Let's see what we've got.

With this much depth we possibly have an early upper hand on some teams. After this extended period where many players didn't play, teams who are a little thinner on depth could struggle at first. Basically, we have more options if someone is out of shape, under-preforming, or injured.

Mr Dangles is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 08:14 PM
  #36
Alklha
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,281
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
The cap may have been the same when doughty was signed but when doughty was signed players received 57% of HRR now they only receive 50%. What happened with Weber cannot happen again because of contract limits and contract variances. You are not taking into consideration the market. All of the teams close to the ceiling (tor, phi, nyr, mon, etc.) will be dropping salary so will all the teams trying to stay close to the floor (fla, clb, nyi, etc). If we were still under the old CBA you could see teams trying to sign Petro but now all of the rich teams will be cutting salary instead of adding to it. There will be a lot of UFAs for teams to go after, they may not be as good as Petro but they will not cost any draft picks and they will be much cheaper. With the new draft lottery picks will have more value than in past years, offer sheets will be even more rare now than before the lockout.
You are picking up on a lot of points that don't really impact what I said. 1st round draft picks of teams expecting to be in the playoffs every year have the exact same value as before. Yes, the Doughty deal was signed with 57% HRR, but he also got $7m and I am saying $6m minimum for Pietrangelo. The structure of the Weber deal can't happen under the new CBA, but it would not stop a big $ offer coming in. Let's not pretend that the Flyers didn't have a good idea of what was going to happen with the cap when they made that offer to Weber. Their cap situation is actually pretty good when you break it down, and they are looking for a franchise defenseman and will give up their picks if need be.

The basic issue is what numbers are you honestly expecting our players to resign for in order to be closer to the floor than the ceiling? I can't see any realistic way it is possible.

Alklha is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 09:56 PM
  #37
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
You are picking up on a lot of points that don't really impact what I said. 1st round draft picks of teams expecting to be in the playoffs every year have the exact same value as before. Yes, the Doughty deal was signed with 57% HRR, but he also got $7m and I am saying $6m minimum for Pietrangelo. The structure of the Weber deal can't happen under the new CBA, but it would not stop a big $ offer coming in. Let's not pretend that the Flyers didn't have a good idea of what was going to happen with the cap when they made that offer to Weber. Their cap situation is actually pretty good when you break it down, and they are looking for a franchise defenseman and will give up their picks if need be.

The basic issue is what numbers are you honestly expecting our players to resign for in order to be closer to the floor than the ceiling? I can't see any realistic way it is possible.
I am not going to speculate on numbers but common sense and history say that when the salary cap drops salaries drop and players are no longer worth as much, and when there is a unusually high number of free agents salaries drop as well. It is simple supply and demand the amount of players(supply) available is increasing so price drops.

sh724 is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 11:30 PM
  #38
SneakerPimp82
Registered User
 
SneakerPimp82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 1,654
vCash: 50
Send a message via AIM to SneakerPimp82
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueDream View Post
Yes he is a great player but the time off doesn't make his past concussion issues go away. As a smaller player, one more hit to his head and he could be gone for a while. He's just risky. So, yeah, he'd have to take a discount. And I don't think the Blues would be "desperate" for him to stay. I agree that he is one of the more dynamic players on our team and I'm sure management would like him back, but this Blues team that just finished 2nd in the West with McDonald only playing 25 games is not exactly desperate. Let's remember that and not act like the rest of our team is complete crap.
No one is saying that. But you have to be cognizant of the fact that Elliott and Halak probably had career years last season, and the defense(mostly Pietrangelo) was healthy the entire season as well. So yes, McDonald's absence wasn't felt as badly. To expect our goalie tandem to duplicate what they did last year would be wishful thinking, hence why it's very probable that the Blues would very much want to re-sign the team's most prolific scorer(at this point at least).

SneakerPimp82 is offline  
Old
01-06-2013, 11:40 PM
  #39
SneakerPimp82
Registered User
 
SneakerPimp82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 1,654
vCash: 50
Send a message via AIM to SneakerPimp82
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
I am not going to speculate on numbers but common sense and history say that when the salary cap drops salaries drop and players are no longer worth as much, and when there is a unusually high number of free agents salaries drop as well. It is simple supply and demand the amount of players(supply) available is increasing so price drops.
So you honestly expect Pietrangelo to sign for less than $6 million AAV? In addition to jettisoning 2 veteran players for 2 others that will be on entry level contracts?

SneakerPimp82 is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 12:53 AM
  #40
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SneakerPimp82 View Post
So you honestly expect Pietrangelo to sign for less than $6 million AAV? In addition to jettisoning 2 veteran players for 2 others that will be on entry level contracts?
No I did not say any of that. What I said was I am not going to speculate on numbers (the only number I said was its unrealistic to think the Blues will spend $20 mil just on defense), Andy Mac will not be back unless he takes a big pay cut, and that I would not be surprised if Stewart is traded and some one on an ELC takes his place.

The Blues have not made a profit in at least 20 years and are a small market team. They are not about to spend way more in salaries than they have to. Unless some extremely rich guy that does not care about money buys the team (which is very unlikely) or STL somehow becomes as profitable as an O6 team they are going to be towards the bottom of the league in salary.

In terms of putting the best team on the ice and winning it makes perfect sense to spend tons of money, but from a business stand point it makes 0 sense. The current ownership will run out of money faster than Checketts if they do not start making a profit every year. Yea it sucks the Blues cannot afford to keep every good player they have forever but that's the way it is. The Blues have some of the lowest gate receipts in the league.

The team by its self is not worth much more than $100 million and lost $10 million last season while being in the top 10 in attendance and making it to the second round of the POs. They spent 54.8 mil in salaries (current salary is 53.6), in order for them to have been profitable they would had to have spent $5 mil less than any other team. The new CBA will help some but you have to be realistic when looking at the future of the team. The only way they are going to be profitable going forward is cutting expenses and/or increasing ticket prices (which they cannot do because of the lockout).

If you were the owner would you rather spend more on the blues and have a greater chance on winning the cup, but risk losing more than $10 mil a year that you do not have and potential lose everything you have. Or would you rather piss off some fans by cutting salary and have less of a chance of winning the cup? If Stillman's group starts losing large amounts of money right away there is not any one coming in to save them. There was not any one else willing to buy the team last year do not expect some one to show up if Stillman cannot afford to operate the team.

I know i have gone way off of topic but every one should be happy Stillman stepped up and bought the team because if he did not the Blues might not be in STL anymore. If he does not make money there is really only 2 options, we become phx 2.0 or the team leaves. I would rather salaries be cut and potentially lose a few players than either of those options.


Last edited by sh724: 01-07-2013 at 01:15 AM.
sh724 is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 05:30 AM
  #41
PerryTurnbullfan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Penalty Box
Country:
Posts: 2,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
Bingo. Papineau, Trudel, Whitfield, etc. are examples of guys who are able to do well in the minors due to physical skills, but they don't have the hockey sense to do anything in the NHL. Peoria is a bad team and Schwartz doesn't have a lot to work with. For all of the guys who tore up the minors and couldn't hack it at the highest level, there are guys who don't rack up points in the minors, but make an impact in the NHL and never look back. David Backes, for example.

Is that a reason to think Schwartz could or should be a replacement for McDonald in the next two years? No way. If Andy could keep from getting more concussions, he could play at his current level for a long time. Age is just a number for fitness freaks with his speed and intelligence. And I agree that Schwartz, like most young players, will most likely take a few years before he's a serious impact player. I just don't think the NHL/AHL production of players with average or worse hockey sense is relevant to him at all.
It remains to be seen whether or not his hockey sense and skills will translate to the NHL level. Sure you may have a few more players that are borderline NHLers playing in the AHL, but you are talking about a guy that needs to be in your top six in order to play his offensive game and produce. He must be better than the top 6 that we currently have on the Blues roster, and he is not. He has the 2nd worst +/- on his team next to Taylor Chorney. Hopefully, stats lie and he has learned how to cover his man in the defensive zone. I would venture to say that he probably needs to stay where he is at and get powerplay and top 6 forward minutes and round out the rest of his defensive game. It will be a short season where every win and point will be more crucial. Give him time to gel and dominate at the AHL level. Let his hockey sense and skills surpass the AHL level. We have enough depth right now to let him develop. I'm not saying that Schwartz will not get there, but he definitely has a ways to go on both sides of the blue line. Hitchcock is a defense first guy. You all know that. I would rather we not get frustrated with him at the NHL level and trade him off for less than value. Who knows...if he doesn't pan out, then hopefully we make another Papineau for Osgood trade and rob someone else blind....ha ha.

PerryTurnbullfan is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 07:25 AM
  #42
Alklha
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,281
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorton724 View Post
No I did not say any of that. What I said was I am not going to speculate on numbers (the only number I said was its unrealistic to think the Blues will spend $20 mil just on defense), Andy Mac will not be back unless he takes a big pay cut, and that I would not be surprised if Stewart is traded and some one on an ELC takes his place.

The Blues have not made a profit in at least 20 years and are a small market team. They are not about to spend way more in salaries than they have to. Unless some extremely rich guy that does not care about money buys the team (which is very unlikely) or STL somehow becomes as profitable as an O6 team they are going to be towards the bottom of the league in salary.

In terms of putting the best team on the ice and winning it makes perfect sense to spend tons of money, but from a business stand point it makes 0 sense. The current ownership will run out of money faster than Checketts if they do not start making a profit every year. Yea it sucks the Blues cannot afford to keep every good player they have forever but that's the way it is. The Blues have some of the lowest gate receipts in the league.

The team by its self is not worth much more than $100 million and lost $10 million last season while being in the top 10 in attendance and making it to the second round of the POs. They spent 54.8 mil in salaries (current salary is 53.6), in order for them to have been profitable they would had to have spent $5 mil less than any other team. The new CBA will help some but you have to be realistic when looking at the future of the team. The only way they are going to be profitable going forward is cutting expenses and/or increasing ticket prices (which they cannot do because of the lockout).

If you were the owner would you rather spend more on the blues and have a greater chance on winning the cup, but risk losing more than $10 mil a year that you do not have and potential lose everything you have. Or would you rather piss off some fans by cutting salary and have less of a chance of winning the cup? If Stillman's group starts losing large amounts of money right away there is not any one coming in to save them. There was not any one else willing to buy the team last year do not expect some one to show up if Stillman cannot afford to operate the team.

I know i have gone way off of topic but every one should be happy Stillman stepped up and bought the team because if he did not the Blues might not be in STL anymore. If he does not make money there is really only 2 options, we become phx 2.0 or the team leaves. I would rather salaries be cut and potentially lose a few players than either of those options.
I don't think anyone disagrees with the sentiment of what you are saying, we need to be financially responsible and that will make some things difficult for us. However, you can't break down how it is going to be possible in reality, because it simply isn't without alienating fans.

Even if we trade Stewart and D'Agostini for futures, plus let McDonald, Langenbrunner, Nichol and Porter leave to UFA, we are still looking at over $47m with 6 spots to fill. Sure, we can put Jaškin and Rattie in and it is $49m with 4 spots to fill. But we would be seriously risking their development and we would be icing a massively weaker team, with next to no depth, next season.

Players salaries are not going to suddenly plummet. The cap is what it was last year, and will be the same again next year. Even is we say that the League grows at 5% p/a (it averaged over 7% p/a over the course of the last CBA), then the cap will drop in 2014/15 to $63m before going north of $65m the following season. If the Coyotes move to Canada, then you can expect a much more significant rise than just 5%. Teams, players and agents know these numbers, so I don't see salaries dropping by anything meaningful.

Ticket prices are going to have to rise further next season. Also, I think that management has to try and find a way to get the City to start giving the team the same breaks that the Rams and Cardinals enjoy. It is bad enough that 1 hand is tied because of the stupidity of Checketts, without the City having the other. I'm not sure the City will budge unless there is a very real chance of the Blues leaving St. Louis though.

Alklha is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 10:06 AM
  #43
JustOneB4IDie
Everyone Overpayment
 
JustOneB4IDie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: St. Louis MO
Country: United States
Posts: 3,370
vCash: 50
Blues still need a Shutdown Defenseman, unless Cole plays out of this world. If not, a deal for one won't happen until the trade deadline.

JustOneB4IDie is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 10:56 AM
  #44
Alklha
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,281
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by BleedBlue1967 View Post
Blues still need a Shutdown Defenseman, unless Cole plays out of this world. If not, a deal for one won't happen until the trade deadline.
What we need in defense is a LHD capable of stepping up and leading the D if something was to happen to Pietrangelo. I don't think it is realistic for us to expect us to get that.

Next best thing is that solid, shutdown player to partner Pietrangelo. If Cole can cut out the stupid penalties he took last season, then I don't think he needs to play out of this world to fill that role. Not ideal for the team, or Cole, but our strong team defense plus playing alongside one of the best in the game will offer him plenty of protection.

For me, seeing Cole play regularly is just as an exciting prospect this season as seeing Tarasenko in the 'Note.

Alklha is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 04:59 PM
  #45
rumrokh
I Bleed Blue
 
rumrokh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,643
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PerryTurnbullfan View Post
It remains to be seen whether or not his hockey sense and skills will translate to the NHL level. Sure you may have a few more players that are borderline NHLers playing in the AHL, but you are talking about a guy that needs to be in your top six in order to play his offensive game and produce. He must be better than the top 6 that we currently have on the Blues roster, and he is not. He has the 2nd worst +/- on his team next to Taylor Chorney. Hopefully, stats lie and he has learned how to cover his man in the defensive zone. I would venture to say that he probably needs to stay where he is at and get powerplay and top 6 forward minutes and round out the rest of his defensive game. It will be a short season where every win and point will be more crucial. Give him time to gel and dominate at the AHL level. Let his hockey sense and skills surpass the AHL level. We have enough depth right now to let him develop. I'm not saying that Schwartz will not get there, but he definitely has a ways to go on both sides of the blue line. Hitchcock is a defense first guy. You all know that. I would rather we not get frustrated with him at the NHL level and trade him off for less than value. Who knows...if he doesn't pan out, then hopefully we make another Papineau for Osgood trade and rob someone else blind....ha ha.
Bolded is ridiculous. Right now, the Blues' top nine looks something like:
D'Agostini-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Stewart
McDonald-Steen-Tarasenko

Why wouldn't you say the same about any of those nine guys, three of whom are obviously not part of the "top 6"?

Schwartz has a lot to prove, but he looked good in his handful of games with the Blues. Over-analyze stats on a wretched team all you want, especially stats like plus/minus, which require context, but all it does is increasingly indicate that you've made up your mind. In which case, there's no discussion. Your suspicions won't be allayed until they are absolutely proven true or false. And that's your prerogative, but I prefer to use my eyes and reliably predictive stats, both of which give me more confidence than you'd have others exhibit.

rumrokh is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 05:13 PM
  #46
Mike Liut
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Country: United States
Posts: 5,426
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
What we need in defense is a LHD capable of stepping up and leading the D if something was to happen to Pietrangelo. I don't think it is realistic for us to expect us to get that.

Next best thing is that solid, shutdown player to partner Pietrangelo. If Cole can cut out the stupid penalties he took last season, then I don't think he needs to play out of this world to fill that role. Not ideal for the team, or Cole, but our strong team defense plus playing alongside one of the best in the game will offer him plenty of protection.

For me, seeing Cole play regularly is just as an exciting prospect this season as seeing Tarasenko in the 'Note.



I think Cole is going to surprise a lot people this year. I hope he gets the chance to play with Petro from day 1.

Mike Liut is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 06:00 PM
  #47
MattyMo35
Moderator
Schwartz Be With You
 
MattyMo35's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: St. Louis, MO
Country: United States
Posts: 7,179
vCash: 50
JR said that he expects to see a Russell-Pietrangelo top pairing to start the season. I don't think that's a terrible idea, but Russell's lack of size scares me going up against the best on the other team. I guess we'll see. I think they are going to have to make the change and let Cole take over after a few games.

MattyMo35 is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 06:08 PM
  #48
SneakerPimp82
Registered User
 
SneakerPimp82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 1,654
vCash: 50
Send a message via AIM to SneakerPimp82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
I don't think anyone disagrees with the sentiment of what you are saying, we need to be financially responsible and that will make some things difficult for us. However, you can't break down how it is going to be possible in reality, because it simply isn't without alienating fans.

Even if we trade Stewart and D'Agostini for futures, plus let McDonald, Langenbrunner, Nichol and Porter leave to UFA, we are still looking at over $47m with 6 spots to fill. Sure, we can put Jaškin and Rattie in and it is $49m with 4 spots to fill. But we would be seriously risking their development and we would be icing a massively weaker team, with next to no depth, next season.

Players salaries are not going to suddenly plummet. The cap is what it was last year, and will be the same again next year. Even is we say that the League grows at 5% p/a (it averaged over 7% p/a over the course of the last CBA), then the cap will drop in 2014/15 to $63m before going north of $65m the following season. If the Coyotes move to Canada, then you can expect a much more significant rise than just 5%. Teams, players and agents know these numbers, so I don't see salaries dropping by anything meaningful.

Ticket prices are going to have to rise further next season. Also, I think that management has to try and find a way to get the City to start giving the team the same breaks that the Rams and Cardinals enjoy. It is bad enough that 1 hand is tied because of the stupidity of Checketts, without the City having the other. I'm not sure the City will budge unless there is a very real chance of the Blues leaving St. Louis though.
Exactly this. If you strip the team of its competitive depth simply because of business reasons, you shouldn't expect fans to come out in droves to see and inferior product...which ultimately hurts the bottom line. There's a balance that can be struck, and good management is required to find that balance. Thankfully, this current managing group has shown itself to be very good.

SneakerPimp82 is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 06:14 PM
  #49
PerryTurnbullfan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Penalty Box
Country:
Posts: 2,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
Bolded is ridiculous. Right now, the Blues' top nine looks something like:
D'Agostini-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Stewart
McDonald-Steen-Tarasenko

Why wouldn't you say the same about any of those nine guys, three of whom are obviously not part of the "top 6"?

Schwartz has a lot to prove, but he looked good in his handful of games with the Blues. Over-analyze stats on a wretched team all you want, especially stats like plus/minus, which require context, but all it does is increasingly indicate that you've made up your mind. In which case, there's no discussion. Your suspicions won't be allayed until they are absolutely proven true or false. And that's your prerogative, but I prefer to use my eyes and reliably predictive stats, both of which give me more confidence than you'd have others exhibit.
In a nutshell, all 9 of those players are better two way players than Schwartz. It doesn't benefit Schwartz to play 10-12 minutes of NHL hockey at this point in his career as a bottom 9 forward. The goal is to get him in the top 3-6. Playing right now 20+ minutes a game is more crucial in his development. That isn't stats. He has no physical or statistical reason to be on this roster right now. It would be a bad decision unless there was an injury that allows him plenty of playing time to have him on the roster. He shouldn't be considered a win now option.

PerryTurnbullfan is offline  
Old
01-07-2013, 06:21 PM
  #50
rumrokh
I Bleed Blue
 
rumrokh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,643
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PerryTurnbullfan View Post
In a nutshell, all 9 of those players are better two way players than Schwartz. It doesn't benefit Schwartz to play 10-12 minutes of NHL hockey at this point in his career as a bottom 9 forward. The goal is to get him in the top 3-6. Playing right now 20+ minutes a game is more crucial in his development. That isn't stats. He has no physical or statistical reason to be on this roster right now. It would be a bad decision unless there was an injury that allows him plenty of playing time to have him on the roster. He shouldn't be considered a win now option.
That's reasoning that's lightyears ahead of anything you've said so far. I don't know how you go from "he must be better than the top 6 we currently have" to that, but I fully, non-sarcastically support that shift. I don't fully agree, but it's sensible.

Don't misunderstand, I'm not arguing in favor of Schwartz being on the opening night roster or anything like that. I just think your previously stated expectations are unfounded and your criticism and comparison to completely unlike players goes nowhere.

rumrokh is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:24 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.