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Luongo: The Neverending Story

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:29 AM
  #926
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Originally Posted by Max Quackenbush View Post
Problem is that most of the TO players suggested going the other way are either unable to make the Leaf's Lineup or are fair-average NHLers. Luongo's trade value should bring at least one player who can eventually, if not now, play in the top 6 forwards or top 4 D on the Canucks. I am not seeing that so I suspect he will be shopped elsewhere. An intriguing suggestion from some 'insiders' is Columbus. Provided Luongo will play in Ohio and he recently said he would go along with whatever GMMG needs to do, this would be perhaps the best trading partner as they have Ryan Johansen and Ryan Murray, either one of which would be more what TO is offering. The other aspect is that, amongst other NHLers, Luongo has developed the most entertaining public persona. This is valuable to moribund franchises like Florida and Columbus, who above all need to sell tickets, Luongo could probably help them in that regard. Leaf fans are famous for their unwavering support regardless of era, or the quality of the product so Luongo would have no effect there except for the number of playoff dates he could help achieve and according to this thread this has fairly little value.

BTW: Check out Markstrom's year coming off major knee surgery last year, he is not lighting it up.
LOL Columbus is not going to give Johansen or Murray for Luongo.

Secondly, yes Markstrom is having a great season after a poor first few games. You don't know what you're talking about.

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:31 AM
  #927
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Quackenbush View Post
Problem is that most of the TO players suggested going the other way are either unable to make the Leaf's Lineup or are fair-average NHLers. Luongo's trade value should bring at least one player who can eventually, if not now, play in the top 6 forwards or top 4 D on the Canucks. I am not seeing that so I suspect he will be shopped elsewhere. An intriguing suggestion from some 'insiders' is Columbus. Provided Luongo will play in Ohio and he recently said he would go along with whatever GMMG needs to do, this would be perhaps the best trading partner as they have Ryan Johansen and Ryan Murray, either one of which would be more what TO is offering. The other aspect is that, amongst other NHLers, Luongo has developed the most entertaining public persona. This is valuable to moribund franchises like Florida and Columbus, who above all need to sell tickets, Luongo could probably help them in that regard. Leaf fans are famous for their unwavering support regardless of era, or the quality of the product so Luongo would have no effect there except for the number of playoff dates he could help achieve and according to this thread this has fairly little value.

BTW: Check out Markstrom's year coming off major knee surgery last year, he is not lighting it up.
So Leafs fans are famous for being fans?

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:31 AM
  #928
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
First, you misunderstood my post. The insinuation is by waiving him another would claim him, yet we would not have to retain Toronto junk. Thus, a better investment. And good luck indeed.

FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($4.500m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Chris Higgins ($1.900m) / Jordan Schroeder ($1.025m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Dale Weise ($0.615m)
Andrew Ebbett ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Alexander Edler ($5.000m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Kevin Connauton ($0.900m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m)
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,743,333; BONUSES: $310,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $866,667
-------

Hey, we have cap to spare too!
I understood your post quite clearly. Clearly the Nucks should keep him, yet for some reason that doesnt seem to be something mentioned at all. The idea of sitting a player that has either a 5.3 or 4 million dollar cap hit on any given night, and expect the team to get better with a lower cap, is really delusional.

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01-07-2013, 10:33 AM
  #929
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Uh Oh! Mirtle tweeted that the Cap Benefit Recapture formula is 100% in the new CBA. So original team that signed BDC, the Canucks in this case, are saddled with the cap-hit when Luongo retires. Ouch. And the price just went up.







Edit: https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/288314425461575681


Quote:
"Can 100% confirm the new CBA will include the cap benefit recapture formula. It will apply to existing deals "in excess of six years."

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:33 AM
  #930
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Originally Posted by Reign Nateo View Post
We definitely know the fans say no, but as most things involving this Luongo saga, no one really knows anything for certain... Will be a very interesting day when this deal finally goes down.
There have also been confirmed reports that bjugstad has been told he is NOT getting traded for luongo.

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01-07-2013, 10:39 AM
  #931
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Uh Oh! Mirtle tweeted that the Cap Benefit Recapture formula is 100% in the new CBA. So original team that signed BDC, the Canucks in this case, are saddled with the cap-hit when Luongo retires. Ouch. And the price just went up.



Edit: https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/288314425461575681
Again with another hopefull reach. What this does not address is the possible decline in play with Lou for the team that aquires him. He will be 34 and the contract is set till he is 42, if his play declines, the team that does aquire him will have a player on the decline having a 5.3 cap hit. Its all nice and well early retirement cap hit can be avoided by the team aquiring him, but there is no protection to the team aquiring him if and when his play declines in the later stages of his contract. Ouch, and reality just set in again.

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01-07-2013, 10:39 AM
  #932
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I think having 2 quality goalies is more important in a shortened season, where any stumble could really hurt. Also, am I right with the assumptions that the cap is still high for this short season, and the buy-out amnesties apply this summer and next?
Wouldnt these facts add up to a much greater liklihood that Gillis will hang onto Luo for this year anyway if he doesn't get a good enough deal?

I mean if you're him, why would you move him for Bozak and an ok prospect and/or pick (who wont help this year), versus going with the proven tandem, and maybe just sign a guy like Arnott? Capgeek is showing them currently with $2.4M in space with a 23-man roster, if I'm reading correctly.

Can anyone tell me the justification for rushing this deal, or taking a deal as low as the ones posted here (mostly by our Leaf friends?)

And PS, I don't for a minute agree that avoiding 'discord in the room' is worth throwing away your #1 trading chip and security btw the pipes. We can throw him away in the summer, if it comes to that...

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:41 AM
  #933
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
LOL Columbus is not going to give Johansen or Murray for Luongo.

Secondly, yes Markstrom is having a great season after a poor first few games. You don't know what you're talking about.
this has puzzled me these past 6 months -- why does Fla has any interest in Luo at all, with Theo playing fine and markstrom nearly there?

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:42 AM
  #934
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
I think having 2 quality goalies is more important in a shortened season, where any stumble could really hurt. Also, am I right with the assumptions that the cap is still high for this short season, and the buy-out amnesties apply this summer and next?
Wouldnt these facts add up to a much greater liklihood that Gillis will hang onto Luo for this year anyway if he doesn't get a good enough deal?

I mean if you're him, why would you move him for Bozak and an ok prospect and/or pick (who wont help this year), versus going with the proven tandem, and maybe just sign a guy like Arnott? Capgeek is showing them currently with $2.4M in space with a 23-man roster, if I'm reading correctly.

Can anyone tell me the justification for rushing this deal, or taking a deal as low as the ones posted here (mostly by our Leaf friends?)

And PS, I don't for a minute agree that avoiding 'discord in the room' is worth throwing away your #1 trading chip and security btw the pipes. We can throw him away in the summer, if it comes to that...
Agreed, on all accounts. The cap being at 64.3 next year and the staggered compliance buyouts make it possible to keep him around a little longer, if necessary. Or at least give Gillis a position to bluff from.

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01-07-2013, 10:43 AM
  #935
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The only reason Van somewhat rushes this deal is selling Luo while his value is decent. It's not going to help the team much value wise with Luo playing backup in a 48 game season. Also would get rid of some tension in the locker room I'm sure.

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:44 AM
  #936
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
this has puzzled me these past 6 months -- why does Fla has any interest in Luo at all, with Theo playing fine and markstrom nearly there?
Seems like they'd run into the Vancouver problem of having a young goalie who's ready but Lou is there.

Also as a Leafs fan the other day, Bozak and some other pieces were mentioned as part of a possible deal on TSN when Bobby Mack was speaking but we'll see if that's still the case.

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:44 AM
  #937
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Oh and while cap wise a buyout seems a route to take, that's a lot of real money coming out of the owners pockets.

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01-07-2013, 10:45 AM
  #938
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
this has puzzled me these past 6 months -- why does Fla has any interest in Luo at all, with Theo playing fine and markstrom nearly there?
Marketing, along with an improvement in goaltending. Theodore played well last year in a very defensive system, but he's not in the same tier as Luongo. Apparently the Panthers that Lu has been practicing with in Florida think he's "all world" and would love to have him on the team.

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01-07-2013, 10:45 AM
  #939
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
Again with another hopefull reach. What this does not address is the possible decline in play with Lou for the team that aquires him. He will be 34 and the contract is set till he is 42, if his play declines, the team that does aquire him will have a player on the decline having a 5.3 cap hit. Its all nice and well early retirement cap hit can be avoided by the team aquiring him, but there is no protection to the team aquiring him if and when his play declines in the later stages of his contract. Ouch, and reality just set in again.
so you're saying that it's not a plus for the acquiring team that they would not be on the hook when he retires?

ps, is this confirmed? Canucks are on the hook no matter what?

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:46 AM
  #940
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Uh Oh! Mirtle tweeted that the Cap Benefit Recapture formula is 100% in the new CBA. So original team that signed BDC, the Canucks in this case, are saddled with the cap-hit when Luongo retires. Ouch. And the price just went up.







Edit: https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/288314425461575681
Interesting...sucks for Vancouver (and other teams that signed retirement contracts).

Although I'm not sure why the price would go up. Doesn't really affect the acquiring team (when retirement would've just removed the contract from the cap) so I don't see how it changes Gillis' pros and cons list to moving him for any particular offer.

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:47 AM
  #941
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
First, you misunderstood my post. The insinuation is by waiving him another would claim him, yet we would not have to retain Toronto junk. Thus, a better investment. And good luck indeed.

FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($4.500m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Chris Higgins ($1.900m) / Jordan Schroeder ($1.025m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Dale Weise ($0.615m)
Andrew Ebbett ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Alexander Edler ($5.000m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Kevin Connauton ($0.900m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m)
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,743,333; BONUSES: $310,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $866,667
-------

Hey, we have cap to spare too!
I mentioned this earlier, but your numbers are still off:

Weise has to be qualified at a 10% raise. Tanev and Cannauton need to be qualified at a 5% raise.

You also need to add a 7th d-man. Running a roster with 6 d-men all season would be a disaster.

Higgins will definitely be getting a raise to the 2.5 mil range. Lappierre will most likely get a small raise as well. This roster is worse than the Canucks current lineup and, even then, probably isn't realistic under the cap.

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01-07-2013, 10:47 AM
  #942
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Originally Posted by HABSFTW View Post
The only reason Van somewhat rushes this deal is selling Luo while his value is decent. It's not going to help the team much value wise with Luo playing backup in a 48 game season. Also would get rid of some tension in the locker room I'm sure.
With the compressed schedule and shortened season the starter/backup roles would likely be interchangeable. They would each get 45-55% of the games and coach would play the hot hand going into the playoffs. I'm not sure that causes much tension between a close knit locker room, regardless of how sure you are.

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01-07-2013, 10:48 AM
  #943
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
Again with another hopefull reach. What this does not address is the possible decline in play with Lou for the team that aquires him. He will be 34 and the contract is set till he is 42, if his play declines, the team that does aquire him will have a player on the decline having a 5.3 cap hit. Its all nice and well early retirement cap hit can be avoided by the team aquiring him, but there is no protection to the team aquiring him if and when his play declines in the later stages of his contract. Ouch, and reality just set in again.


Hopeful reach? This is terrible for the Canucks. How is that hopeful? More than likely, Luongo retires around 38-39 and VAN is saddled with the cap-hit. How is that good for the Canucks?



TOR is not saddled with his retirement number = good for TOR. Sure he could keep playing, but that's just a part of the package regardless.

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01-07-2013, 10:48 AM
  #944
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Originally Posted by HABSFTW View Post
The only reason Van somewhat rushes this deal is selling Luo while his value is decent. It's not going to help the team much value wise with Luo playing backup in a 48 game season. Also would get rid of some tension in the locker room I'm sure.
ah. so he's going to suck this year.
thanks for that look into your crystal ball.

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01-07-2013, 10:48 AM
  #945
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if florida trades for luongo it would have to start with upshall or kopecky, just because the price of luongo. i think we'd prefer to trade upshall, but he has a nmc/modified ntc, so it wouldnt be a guarantee. plus a possible lower end, cheap roster player, perhaps matthias. and then a prospect and/or pick, probably any one of petrovic/robak/grimaldi/trocheck/rau, i dont think shore or howden are going anywhere but still possible for sure. my guess is something like:

Upshall/Kopecky + Matthias + Petrovic/Robak/Trocheck (and maybe a pick as well, but not a 1st rounder)

whether thats enough, who knows. is luongo worth more, id say for sure, but this is what the panthers would realistically offer whether we get him or not.

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01-07-2013, 10:49 AM
  #946
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Originally Posted by trbr86 View Post
From James Mirtle's twitter: Can 100% confirm the new CBA will include the cap benefit recapture formula. It will apply to existing deals "in excess of six years."

So, assuming that this is the same cap benefit recapture that had originally been mooted, then the Canucks will ultimately be on the hook for Luongo's cap hit if he ever decides to retire prior to his contract expiring. Regardless of whether he retires playing for the Canucks or for another NHL team.

If anything, it takes the risk away from acquiring such a long-term contract and puts it back on the Canucks. This raises his trade value in that sense.
It doesn't take away any risk. All it does is punish Vancouver.

The risk of having a player near the end (or at the end) of his prime with a long-term deal (and fairly significant cap-hit) still remains.

It won't change Luongo's value positively or negatively than whatever it was before. The risk is still there, just teams like Vancouver, Philadelphia and others will be punished as well.

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01-07-2013, 10:50 AM
  #947
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Oh and while cap wise a buyout seems a route to take, that's a lot of real money coming out of the owners pockets.
i dont for a second believe the Canucks would buyout Luongo, but a trade where they take back someone like Jovo and buy him oput becomes a possibility

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01-07-2013, 10:51 AM
  #948
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Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
if florida trades for luongo it would have to start with upshall or kopecky, just because the price of luongo. i think we'd prefer to trade upshall, but he has a nmc/modified ntc, so it wouldnt be a guarantee. plus a possible lower end, cheap roster player, perhaps matthias. and then a prospect and/or pick, probably any one of petrovic/robak/grimaldi/trocheck/rau, i dont think shore or howden are going anywhere but still possible for sure. my guess is something like:

Upshall/Kopecky + Matthias + Petrovic/Robak/Trocheck (and maybe a pick as well, but not a 1st rounder)

whether thats enough, who knows. is luongo worth more, id say for sure, but this is what the panthers would realistically offer whether we get him or not.
Upshall/Kopecky, Shore, Petrovic, 2nd/Clemmonson

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Old
01-07-2013, 10:53 AM
  #949
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To Toronto:
Upshall
Theodore

To Florida:
Luongo
Lombardi

To Vancouver:
Bozak
Trocheck
Franson

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01-07-2013, 10:54 AM
  #950
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I mentioned this earlier, but your numbers are still off:

Weise has to be qualified at a 10% raise. Tanev and Cannauton need to be qualified at a 5% raise.

You also need to add a 7th d-man. Running a roster with 6 d-men all season would be a disaster.

Higgins will definitely be getting a raise to the 2.5 mil range. Lappierre will most likely get a small raise as well. This roster is worse than the Canucks current lineup and, even then, probably isn't realistic under the cap.
Then Weise walks. %5 does little to alter Tanev and Cannauton's contracts to make it relevant.

Can still be accomplished under the cap.

Higgins is not liable to receive much of a raise under the new cap; Lapierre even less so. Were it to happen we have both internal and external means of replacing them. I never said this would be the ideal scenario but merely to show plausibility there is no proverbial gun to our head in dealing Luongo.

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