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Luongo: Light at the end of the tunnel?

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01-08-2013, 01:02 AM
  #651
DJOpus
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Honestly, the way the CBA turned out in regards to the cap for this year and next as well as buyouts (not that I am suggesting that Luongo will be bought out next year, but suitors could buy out less desirable contracts or send them to Vancouver to be bought out) basically shapes up perfectly for Vancouver to hang on to Luongo this year in order to ensure that Schneider is capable of assuming the starters role then trading him next off season.

I strongly feel this is the best option unless the Canucks can get a a Thomas Plekanec or better centre in either a straight trade or three-way trade for Luongo (maybe with the Canucks adding in picks/prospects depending on who comes back).

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01-08-2013, 01:14 AM
  #652
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Going by what Friedman said about the cap recapture system I don't think it'll be too big of a deal. That said, it certainly doesn't help Luongo's value.

I've said it before and with the recapture I'll say it again: I'm an advocate for getting Luongo on Toronto....at a price that makes sense for T.O. taking how well he'd fit into consideration.

My definition of that may vary from Burke's. I guess we'll find out although it may not be until the offseason.

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01-08-2013, 01:17 AM
  #653
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
LTIR is only one option. He can still be bought-out.



I think EF is commenting on how miniscule the actual "hit" is if Luongo is traded, which he will be. 2m per over 3 years is a pittance. Technically lower value? Sure, but at such a low rate so as to not matter. No need to chicken little the re-capture formula, it's a slap on the wrist at best.
Not inaccurate, but its a slap on the wrist that will affect an acquiring team as well.

While not at all a "chicken little" scenario, it does make the contract less appealing even if only slightly. It certainly doesn't help his value.

Also, LTIR is an unlikely option that would require some pretty lucky circumstances. If the buyout serves the acquiring team better based on cap hit vs Luongo's contribution at the time vs Luongo's desire to play, that would be more likely.

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01-08-2013, 01:20 AM
  #654
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Honestly, the way the CBA turned out in regards to the cap for this year and next as well as buyouts (not that I am suggesting that Luongo will be bought out next year, but suitors could buy out less desirable contracts or send them to Vancouver to be bought out) basically shapes up perfectly for Vancouver to hang on to Luongo this year in order to ensure that Schneider is capable of assuming the starters role then trading him next off season.

I strongly feel this is the best option unless the Canucks can get a a Thomas Plekanec or better centre in either a straight trade or three-way trade for Luongo (maybe with the Canucks adding in picks/prospects depending on who comes back).

Can suitors send contracts to VAN to be bought out? I was hearing that this option is only available to contracts currently on the team.

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01-08-2013, 01:25 AM
  #655
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
Not inaccurate, but its a slap on the wrist that will affect an acquiring team as well.

While not at all a "chicken little" scenario, it does make the contract less appealing even if only slightly. It certainly doesn't help his value.

Also, LTIR is an unlikely option that would require some pretty lucky circumstances. If the buyout serves the acquiring team better based on cap hit vs Luongo's contribution at the time vs Luongo's desire to play, that would be more likely.


It makes it slightly less appealing, but to what end? 2m in a potentially 70m+ cap?


The buyout seems likely. LTIR is not tricky if you have a savvy GM... The Canucks have already benefited greatly from it with Salo/Edler/Ballard. In this case, it benefits _both_ teams to have this occur, since both are stuck with the hit. This is the option of first resort here. For rich teams, it all but ensures they can continue to spend at or to the cap, without much worry.


Like I had said, it hurts Luongo's value, technically. In actual impact though, fuggedaboutit. This is what Canucks fans were fearing? Really?

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01-08-2013, 01:45 AM
  #656
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
It makes it slightly less appealing, but to what end? 2m in a potentially 70m+ cap?


The buyout seems likely. LTIR is not tricky if you have a savvy GM... The Canucks have already benefited greatly from it with Salo/Edler/Ballard. In this case, it benefits _both_ teams to have this occur, since both are stuck with the hit. This is the option of first resort here. For rich teams, it all but ensures they can continue to spend at or to the cap, without much worry.


Like I had said, it hurts Luongo's value, technically. In actual impact though, fuggedaboutit. This is what Canucks fans were fearing? Really?
Dead cap is never fun, but like you said its not a huge deal. It will probably only be a minor impact to trade negotiations. Its a sigh of relief from Vancouver I am sure.

Basically what I'm getting at with the LTIR is that there has to be a medical reason to put him on the LTIR, doesn't there? So basically you'd be counting on an injury of some sort when you deemed Luongo's contribution no longer worth his cap hit. Buyout seems a lot more likely route depending on Luongo's career decision of course.

Also, a bit of a side note we had some discussions on Lupul being the main piece from Toronto. Listening to Carlyle today, I'm even more sure Lupul isn't going anywhere. But hey, I've been known to be wrong.

I would cringe at moving Kulemin but I could see it happen.

The more I think about it the more I want Luongo but what Toronto is giving up still has to make sense for them. Because of this, I'm predicting Vancouver holds on to Luongo for this season and moves him to Florida in the offseason.

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01-08-2013, 01:51 AM
  #657
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
Dead cap is never fun, but like you said its not a huge deal. It will probably only be a minor impact to trade negotiations. Its a sigh of relief from Vancouver I am sure.

Basically what I'm getting at with the LTIR is that there has to be a medical reason to put him on the LTIR, doesn't there? So basically you'd be counting on an injury of some sort when you deemed Luongo's contribution no longer worth his cap hit. Buyout seems a lot more likely route depending on Luongo's career decision of course.

Also, a bit of a side note we had some discussions on Lupul being the main piece from Toronto. Listening to Carlyle today, I'm even more sure Lupul isn't going anywhere. But hey, I've been known to be wrong.

I would cringe at moving Kulemin but I could see it happen.

The more I think about it the more I want Luongo but what Toronto is giving up still has to make sense for them. Because of this, I'm predicting Vancouver holds on to Luongo for this season and moves him to Florida in the offseason.
Do you have a proposal?

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01-08-2013, 01:53 AM
  #658
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If Luongo retires the year before his contract expires than the team that traded for him (and the Canucks) would have their shares of the penalty all in the one year. So saying a 2m per year penalty isn't that bad is fine, but thats assuming he doesn't decide he wants to continue to play. Theyre both what-if scenarios. The risk is there. Is it enough to seriously hurt Luongo's value? Probably not. But its obviously something to look at.

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01-08-2013, 01:53 AM
  #659
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Originally Posted by Cyris View Post
Now knowing that the team acquiring him will pay cap penalties after he retires do you still think he holds that kind of value?
Yeah I think he holds more value.

That's not even all that much I was trying to move more in your direction.

Kadri holds most the value in this deal for us, u have to give us one good piece and he is it.

The 2nd is also good, not a huge loss from your perspective, u get to keep your 1st and we get a 2nd to hopefully add a decent prospect to the pool.

Bozak is a Pending UFA so there isn't quite as much value (And i'm not there was a ton to begin with honestly) With our cap situation next year we could very well just use him as a rental and let him walk at the end of the year, who knows maybe he will come back to you if you want him.

Franson is really no loss from your perspective since he doesn't want to play there and doesn't have a contract and he is just a throw-in from our perspective so the deal is a little bit better, and we need depth on D, I have been saying that he is too talented to be a 7th D-man, and we should look for something else in the trade but since he isn't much of a loss on your side since he doesn't really want to be there anyways, he wouldn't be a bad throw in from our perspective.

The only major piece you give up is Kadri, your roster remains intact and your cupboard though losing a nice piece is still pretty full. Then when you think about what Roberto will bring, he will be better their than here, he is better when he faces a ton of shots and is consistently active, he can handle the market just fine, he will bring confidence to your group and alot of other things, honestly I think it is a good deal from your side.

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01-08-2013, 02:02 AM
  #660
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Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
Do you have a proposal?
I've tried and failed in the past.

To paraphrase Homer Simpson: "You tried and you failed. The lesson here is never try."


What I've tried and failed with in the past is such:

Going off of Vancouver's needs it would be a top six winger (preferably playmaking), a 3rd line C who can step up into the top six if needed, and a 6th/7th defenseman.

Best fit from Toronto's perspective is likely something along the line of:

Top six winger: Kulemin (ugh - that would hurt and not a playmaker) or MacArthur (more of a playmaker that I know you guys aren't high on apparently).

3rd line C: Connolly (expensive but contract ends at end of year. Solid defensively and could slide into the 2C role if needed but has injury concerns) or Bozak (same as Connolly but younger, cheaper and more potential but less offensive upside and no injury concerns). McClement may also be an option but he just signed and is exclusively defensive.

6/7th D: Cody Franson

Sweetener: draft pick or prospect not named Rielly. Kadri could be in play but he's worth a lot to the Leafs.


If a winger is moved from Toronto Raymond could possibly come back as well. Not sure if it would be better to use him as a stop gap type or just roll with Kadri/Frattin instead.

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01-08-2013, 02:02 AM
  #661
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Originally Posted by Sergei Shirokov View Post
Yeah I think he holds more value.

That's not even all that much I was trying to move more in your direction.

Kadri holds most the value in this deal for us, u have to give us one good piece and he is it.

The 2nd is also good, not a huge loss from your perspective, u get to keep your 1st and we get a 2nd to hopefully add a decent prospect to the pool.

Bozak is a Pending UFA so there isn't quite as much value (And i'm not there was a ton to begin with honestly) With our cap situation next year we could very well just use him as a rental and let him walk at the end of the year, who knows maybe he will come back to you if you want him.

Franson is really no loss from your perspective since he doesn't want to play there and doesn't have a contract and he is just a throw-in from our perspective so the deal is a little bit better, and we need depth on D, I have been saying that he is too talented to be a 7th D-man, and we should look for something else in the trade but since he isn't much of a loss on your side since he doesn't really want to be there anyways, he wouldn't be a bad throw in from our perspective.

The only major piece you give up is Kadri, your roster remains intact and your cupboard though losing a nice piece is still pretty full. Then when you think about what Roberto will bring, he will be better their than here, he is better when he faces a ton of shots and is consistently active, he can handle the market just fine, he will bring confidence to your group and alot of other things, honestly I think it is a good deal from your side.
Nothing personal, SS, but this seems like spot cleaning for our roster, rather then filling holes. I mean this with the utmost respect to the Leafs faithful, but if this was the kind of offer we'd be dealing with, I'd rather hold on to Luongo. Kadri is about the only piece that I think would get used when everyones back, and even then that's if he makes the roster, and Franson and Bozak are likely to walk. The second is inoffensive, but I honestly don't think it holds any extra value, and I'd rather see it combined with Franson and Bozak for another piece. Dare I ask for Gunnarsson?

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01-08-2013, 02:15 AM
  #662
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Originally Posted by GoLeafsGo96 View Post
If Luongo retires the year before his contract expires than the team that traded for him (and the Canucks) would have their shares of the penalty all in the one year. So saying a 2m per year penalty isn't that bad is fine, but thats assuming he doesn't decide he wants to continue to play. Theyre both what-if scenarios. The risk is there. Is it enough to seriously hurt Luongo's value? Probably not. But its obviously something to look at.
With one year left, the leafs would get a cap credit (having paid less in salary than the cap hit across those years), not the other way around.

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01-08-2013, 02:16 AM
  #663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
I've tried and failed in the past.

To paraphrase Homer Simpson: "You tried and you failed. The lesson here is never try."


What I've tried and failed with in the past is such:

Going off of Vancouver's needs it would be a top six winger (preferably playmaking), a 3rd line C who can step up into the top six if needed, and a 6th/7th defenseman.

Best fit from Toronto's perspective is likely something along the line of:

Top six winger: Kulemin (ugh - that would hurt and not a playmaker) or MacArthur (more of a playmaker that I know you guys aren't high on apparently).

3rd line C: Connolly (expensive but contract ends at end of year. Solid defensively and could slide into the 2C role if needed but has injury concerns) or Bozak (same as Connolly but younger, cheaper and more potential but less offensive upside and no injury concerns). McClement may also be an option but he just signed and is exclusively defensive.

6/7th D: Cody Franson

Sweetener: draft pick or prospect not named Rielly. Kadri could be in play but he's worth a lot to the Leafs.


If a winger is moved from Toronto Raymond could possibly come back as well. Not sure if it would be better to use him as a stop gap type or just roll with Kadri/Frattin instead.
Not bad and I appreciate the effort in the explanation:

Many of the pieces you suggested make some sense to Vancouver, and do not remove core pieces from your group. From your suggestion I would consider:

Kulemin - MacArthur is not much of an upgrade on pieces we have. He might be better than Raymond but pretty close. Kulemin did not produce much last year and had a breakout year before. Seems like he is a career 40-45 point guy who is solid defensively. Good player upgrades Vancouver a little, but is not a huge loss for Toronto

Bozak - Future UFA/rental, good fill in guy for Vancouver

Kadri - solid prospect not lived up to potential yet.

Franson - depth defenceman for Vancouver. Value is relatively low because he does not want to sign back with Toronto

For

Luongo - I think speaks for himself

Raymond - replaces Kulemin on 3rd line. In similar situation, had a breakout year, but has not repeated like Kulemin

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01-08-2013, 02:17 AM
  #664
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoLeafsGo96 View Post
If Luongo retires the year before his contract expires than the team that traded for him (and the Canucks) would have their shares of the penalty all in the one year. So saying a 2m per year penalty isn't that bad is fine, but thats assuming he doesn't decide he wants to continue to play. Theyre both what-if scenarios. The risk is there. Is it enough to seriously hurt Luongo's value? Probably not. But its obviously something to look at.
trade him to a cap floor team if wants to keep playing. They save millions in real dollars by paying less in $ than cap hit.

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01-08-2013, 02:18 AM
  #665
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Can suitors send contracts to VAN to be bought out? I was hearing that this option is only available to contracts currently on the team.
Last I heard, and I don't know if this is right, but it was from lebrun, was that they can not return to their original teams after the buyout. That is a period, as in a trade, signing waivers or whatever. There was no mention of only these players, as their is two years to use two.

But I am not sure of this, it was just the last I heard from Lebrun.

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01-08-2013, 02:28 AM
  #666
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From Pierre LeBrun:

Quote:
To wit, part 2: If Luongo were to play the next seven years of his deal in Toronto before retiring, the Leafs would be paying him $43.666 million in salary but only counting $37.31 million against the cap over those seven years, a cap savings of $6.356 million. So if Luongo retires with three years left on his deal (because his salary falls to $1.618 million in the 10th year and then $1 million in the last two years of the deal), the Leafs would get charged that $6.356 million on their cap spread evenly over the remaining three years of his deal.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/i...re-cba-details

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01-08-2013, 02:28 AM
  #667
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Originally Posted by Spasmatic Dan View Post
Dead cap is never fun, but like you said its not a huge deal. It will probably only be a minor impact to trade negotiations. Its a sigh of relief from Vancouver I am sure.

Basically what I'm getting at with the LTIR is that there has to be a medical reason to put him on the LTIR, doesn't there? So basically you'd be counting on an injury of some sort when you deemed Luongo's contribution no longer worth his cap hit. Buyout seems a lot more likely route depending on Luongo's career decision of course.


Medical reason? What was Hatcher's medical reason? Too slow? I think the fact that EF lists it as the primary option is pretty telling. LTIR is a bit of a joke. Very difficult to prove false. And certain teams, like PHI, have used it to take advantage of the cap. And more teams will...



Quote:
Also, a bit of a side note we had some discussions on Lupul being the main piece from Toronto. Listening to Carlyle today, I'm even more sure Lupul isn't going anywhere. But hey, I've been known to be wrong.

I would cringe at moving Kulemin but I could see it happen.

The more I think about it the more I want Luongo but what Toronto is giving up still has to make sense for them. Because of this, I'm predicting Vancouver holds on to Luongo for this season and moves him to Florida in the offseason.


Retaining Luongo to deal him in the offseason is ok with me.







@LeastoftheBunch: Lebrun re-iterates Freidman. 6m over 3 years.

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01-08-2013, 02:34 AM
  #668
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Oh joy, now we get the renewed rhetoric of how a minor cap hit nearly a decade from now has enormous negative impact on Luongo's value.

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01-08-2013, 02:34 AM
  #669
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2.1 million doesn't seem so bad, and hell, if that's the case, we can have a clause in the trade that we can eat half the cap hit if he retires with 3 years remaining, bringing our "dead cap space" up to 3 odd million.

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01-08-2013, 02:34 AM
  #670
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The question I want to know is whether or not a team that trades a player and chooses to eat a large portion of that player's salary as, thanks to the new "Burke rule" in the CBA they are allowed to do, can the team use 1 of their 2 amnesty buyouts on the portion they retained?

Could make for an interesting option with Lu...

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01-08-2013, 02:37 AM
  #671
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Oh joy, now we get the renewed rhetoric of how a minor cap hit nearly a decade from now has enormous negative impact on Luongo's value.


In addition to this, we don't even know if the _new_ CBA retains this clause. 8 years is the limit before the players can opt out. Everyone should keep that in mind.



Quote:
Originally Posted by sewellda View Post
The question I want to know is whether or not a team that trades a player and chooses to eat a large portion of that player's salary as, thanks to the new "Burke rule" in the CBA they are allowed to do, can the team use 1 of their 2 amnesty buyouts on the portion they retained?

Could make for an interesting option with Lu...


No. The compliance buyout period ends the summer of 2014.

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01-08-2013, 02:38 AM
  #672
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Schnieder, Connauton, 3rd round pick for Johansen, 1st round pick, 2nd round pick

Ya Columbus?

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01-08-2013, 02:40 AM
  #673
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Schnieder, Connauton, 3rd round pick for Johansen, 1st round pick, 2nd round pick

Ya Columbus?
that is bad and you should feel bad

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01-08-2013, 02:42 AM
  #674
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So here is what Mackenzie on TSN said earlier today for needs.

Centers: We need a 3rd line center for sure, and may be in need of a second line center depending on how Burrows/Higgins/Schroeder turn out for the 2C and if Malhotra can be effective as 3C.

Wingers: Need not apply, unless we move one out.

Defensemen: We need a veteran (my note: right side) d-man for depth.

Goalie: Not needed, but a veteran back up could negate the need to sign one, ie Ellis, and with Lack out for a short while, it fills a hole in the short term.

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01-08-2013, 02:47 AM
  #675
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honestly who gives a **** how many elite years luongo has, you guys have reimer and frickan scrivens in net. If you plan to do anything this year and in the future you get luongo.

Who cares about his contract 10 years from now.

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