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Luongo: Light at the end of the tunnel?

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01-08-2013, 09:27 AM
  #726
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Originally Posted by Nuck This View Post
I'm a massive Schneider fan an believe he'll win a few Vezinas but im leaning towards keeping luongo. If we can't get anything worthwhile we should trade Schneider for a mega package.
I'm not clear as to why Vancouver fans believe Schneider is worth a mega package.
He looks to be the real deal, but until he actually plays at least one full season as a number one than why consider him to be in the league of say a Lundqvist or Brodeur in his prime?

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01-08-2013, 09:27 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by Nuck This View Post
we should trade Schneider for a mega package.
Out of curiousity, whom do you think might be interested, and capable of sending a mega package back? What would the trade look like to you.

I'm not trying to be critical, I just don't know. Obviously Toronto is out of the picture, as their interest in Luongo is due to his discount price based on the contract.

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01-08-2013, 09:27 AM
  #728
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There is a 7-8 year difference.

I wasn't clear. Trio of young stars.
young stars = concussion candidates

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01-08-2013, 09:28 AM
  #729
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So Florida is trading one of their only scorers for Luongo, a guy they do not need? Why?

Florida's top 6 still needs work, and their young guys could still use a couple seasons before I think they'll be doing any serious damage. Why bring in a goalie who will be mid 30's by then when you have what many scouts have been calling "the best goalie not playing in the NHL" sitting there waiting for his chance.

Mind you, I feel very similar about the Luongo to Toronto rumors, although they don't have the high-end goalie prospect, it still seems like by the time the rest of the team would be ready to compete that Lou would be getting pretty up there age wise.

And now with the info about how both teams would be punished for the deal Vancouver gave Lou, I don't see how all of a sudden Lou's value increases.

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01-08-2013, 09:29 AM
  #730
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Just heard on the fan 590 (Brian Lawton as a guest), Lawton says ,and he admits conjecture, but he feels something like Weiss (as it seems he doesn't want to resign there) and Jovo (says Van needs to sweeten the pot and can buy Jovo out next season) for Luongo. He said Van would be crazy not to do it. The host seems to think that Gillis will hang on to Luongo as without Kesler, goaltending will be huge. He also doesn't see a deal there with the Leafs.

Edit: i find it very funny how media is saying that FLA is the front runner because it's Luongo's first choice, nobody seems to care what FLA management may think.
I find it funny that all these national sources are saying Weiss wants out while the only person with credibility when it comes to the Panters, George Richards, says Weiss just wants to wait until after the season. None of these national guys have given Florida the time of day over the past decade and now all of a sudden they have inside sources that says the guy wants out? It is very possible Weiss leaves after the season, but for now I am going to trust the reporter who actually has sources with the team.

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01-08-2013, 09:33 AM
  #731
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Originally Posted by crazyhawk View Post
I'm not clear as to why Vancouver fans believe Schneider is worth a mega package.
He looks to be the real deal, but until he actually plays at least one full season as a number one than why consider him to be in the league of say a Lundqvist or Brodeur in his prime?
This is the least original comment on HF Boards. Really. It is.

How do you value any elite youngster??????

Yakupov has no value?

We've heard this a million times and stating it again is not going to make it a valid point. Schneider has nothing to prove to gartner a high return in a trade. 25 teams would swap what they have in a heartbeat for him.


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01-08-2013, 09:35 AM
  #732
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
I find it funny that all these national sources are saying Weiss wants out while the only person with credibility when it comes to the Panters, George Richards, says Weiss just wants to wait until after the season. None of these national guys have given Florida the time of day over the past decade and now all of a sudden they have inside sources that says the guy wants out? It is very possible Weiss leaves after the season, but for now I am going to trust the reporter who actually has sources with the team.
I bet you that someone close to Markham, Ontario knows whether or not Weiss wants to stay in Florida. Florida media guys are likely fed the same story that the player gives in front of the camera.

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01-08-2013, 09:39 AM
  #733
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Originally Posted by SufferingCatFan View Post
Prior to the disclosure of the new terms of the CBA allowing salary retention in trades, I was firmly of the belief that Lou's contract made him impossible to trade and that he would likely be an amnesty buy-out. That is no longer the case.

As I understand it, the Nucks now have the ability to retain up to 50% of Lou's salary in a trade. This should give the Nucks the needed flexibility to trade him with the quality of the return dependent to some decree on the size of the cap retention.


Ahh interesting. But to note, there were no such caveats to your initial prediction that he would be bought out. As such, how can this not be viewed as a 180 degree change on your initial evaluation?



Firm belief on opposite sides of the fence?



The ability to retain salary, which was speculated before, has made it through. Thus, it opens the door to many possiblities. In addition to taking on buyouts. The field is open.

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01-08-2013, 09:39 AM
  #734
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
I find it funny that all these national sources are saying Weiss wants out while the only person with credibility when it comes to the Panters, George Richards, says Weiss just wants to wait until after the season. None of these national guys have given Florida the time of day over the past decade and now all of a sudden they have inside sources that says the guy wants out? It is very possible Weiss leaves after the season, but for now I am going to trust the reporter who actually has sources with the team.
I agree, it seems the media (at least what i hear in Ontario Canada) just keep saying FLA is out front because Luongo wants it. They don't seem to care what FLA management have in mind for a plan at all.

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01-08-2013, 09:41 AM
  #735
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
This is the least original comment on HF Boards. Really. It is.

How do you value any elite youngster??????

Yakupov has no value?

We've heard this a million times and stating it again is not going to make it a valid point. Schneider has nothing to prove to gartner a high return in a trade. 25 teams would swap what they have in a heartbeat for him.

This is true....it's the multiple pieces that would be demanded on top that would greatly lower that number.

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01-08-2013, 09:43 AM
  #736
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
I like that you conveniently only highlight remarks that favor Toronto ripping us off merciless from tweet sources that make Eklund look creditable. Luongo will not be bought out, it simply will not happen. Any 'analyst' attempting to float that nonsense is looking for hits.

As for Bozak, keep him. I would much prefer Kadri, who would do no damage to your present roster but god forbid Toronto actually has to pay a price that isn't insulting. If Luongo's value is truly that low, I bet dollar to dime we start entertaining Schneider offers. Gillis has been adamant in his claim any trade will improve our team. This philosophy will not change despite the contrary opinion here.
There's no ripoffs to be had... only fair market value. If there's only one team interested in taking on Luongo, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that team isn't going to start parting with core players.

Kadri should probably be available, as he's an expendable piece for the Leafs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny21 View Post
If Florida is willing to trade Weiss, then that's a great deal for Vancouver. He will easily go to Florida if that is the case. Except nobody knows ****, everyone is guessing.
If Florida's willing to trade Weiss, you should absolutely send him there. However, with Jose Theodore, Scott Clemmensen, Jacob Markstrom, and Weiss being basically the face of their franchise, that seems unlikely, at best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyhawk View Post
I'm not clear as to why Vancouver fans believe Schneider is worth a mega package.
He looks to be the real deal, but until he actually plays at least one full season as a number one than why consider him to be in the league of say a Lundqvist or Brodeur in his prime?
QFT. Schneider's got a $4m contract, and about the experience level of James Reimer. Don't get me wrong there's a ton of potential there, but he's not a guy who you can trade for and say with confidence...that he's going to play 65 games and your goaltending isn't going to be a concern.

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01-08-2013, 09:45 AM
  #737
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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
After seeing the details of the back-diving contract penalties, I think teams will want to wait out Gillis a little longer so he absorbs more of the future cap hit. If I'm the Panthers, I would totally wait until the offseason to even consider making a trade for Luongo. That would push more of the retirement money onto the Canucks when Luongo retires.

And then another question is how much of Luongo's salary would the Canucks be willing to absorb in a trade? I assume 50% is not gonna happen but is 25% too much to expect? That would equate to 1.325M in cap hit being retained by the Canucks and 1.6785M in actual salary being paid. That would make Luongo's cap hit under $4M and his salary just over $5M which seems more palatable to more teams.


I doubt the Canucks retain cap-hit _if_ the deal is to a budget team. Nor would the budget team want the cap-hit to be lowered further than it is, they would want it at 5.3m.


I think Luongo gets carried into the season. This will be a long haul for VAN. They have to evaluate the new CBA and everything they can do within it. What's more, they'll want to see how certain things play out in FLA, TBay, WSH, EDM, CHI etc... They should wait.

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01-08-2013, 09:49 AM
  #738
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I doubt the Canucks retain cap-hit _if_ the deal is to a budget team. Nor would the budget team want the cap-hit to be lowered further than it is, they would want it at 5.3m.


I think Luongo gets carried into the season. This will be a long haul for VAN. They have to evaluate the new CBA and everything they can do within it. What's more, they'll want to see how certain things play out in FLA, TBay, WSH, EDM, CHI etc... They should wait.
I agree with you that Van should retain Luongo. My one question is this, in a 48 game sprint, you need to identify your number one goalie and ride him like a mule.....who is it between Lu/Schneider?

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01-08-2013, 09:49 AM
  #739
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The ability to retain salary, which was speculated before, has made it through. Thus, it opens the door to many possiblities. In addition to taking on buyouts. The field is open.
The more I learn about this the more that I believe salary retention will play a factor in this trade. Potentially increasing the trade value significantly and making it more interesting for more potential parties. That said I ultimately see it being Toronto. It's been Toronto all along and if they can make the cap numbers acceptable to Burke I can see him parting with significant assets. If not, I think the value is in the tank really.

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01-08-2013, 09:50 AM
  #740
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
What's more, they'll want to see how certain things play out in FLA, TBay, WSH, EDM, CHI etc... They should wait.
I see that side of the argument, and I also see the other side...

What happens if Reimer plays great in Toronto, what happens if these other teams mostly do fine?

What happens if Schneider doesn't perform well in a starting capacity? Then you are absolutely stuck with both.

What if Schneider goes down with injury and Luongo has a very poor start... as usual.

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01-08-2013, 09:51 AM
  #741
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
There's no ripoffs to be had... only fair market value. If there's only one team interested in taking on Luongo, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that team isn't going to start parting with core players.

Kadri should probably be available, as he's an expendable piece for the Leafs.


I wouldn't confuse "fair value" and "market value/perceived value". There's a difference.



You're right _if_ there's only one team. But past speculation and now the flexibility provided in the new CBA, ensure that won't be the case. But let's see...



Quote:
If Florida's willing to trade Weiss, you should absolutely send him there. However, with Jose Theodore, Scott Clemmensen, Jacob Markstrom, and Weiss being basically the face of their franchise, that seems unlikely, at best.



All comes down to if they feel he can be re-signed long-term. Especially when he will not negotiate during the season. Can they take the chance of letting him walk when they could get a premier player back? Theodore is also walking at the end of the year (most likely). It seems like an opportunity to get a signed, high end athlete for soon to be departing assets. That's if they don't want to risk Weiss walking, of course...

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01-08-2013, 09:52 AM
  #742
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Originally Posted by Seventeen Twos View Post
The more I learn about this the more that I believe salary retention will play a factor in this trade. Potentially increasing the trade value significantly and making it more interesting for more potential parties. That said I ultimately see it being Toronto. It's been Toronto all along and if they can make the cap numbers acceptable to Burke I can see him parting with significant assets. If not, I think the value is in the tank really.
I agree with 98% of your post...the bolded being the part i don't. You'd need to define "significant assets".

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01-08-2013, 09:52 AM
  #743
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I agree with you that Van should retain Luongo. My one question is this, in a 48 game sprint, you need to identify your number one goalie and ride him like a mule.....who is it between Lu/Schneider?
or, arguably, the compressed season means more back to backs and 3-in-4-nights, increasing the value of a platoon, lest your mule gets burned out, even in an overall-shorter season

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01-08-2013, 09:52 AM
  #744
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If Florida's willing to trade Weiss, you should absolutely send him there. However, with Jose Theodore, Scott Clemmensen, Jacob Markstrom, and Weiss being basically the face of their franchise, that seems unlikely, at best.
Unlikely yes, but you can't argue with acquiring a goalie of Luongo's caliber either for them as well.

I guess it all depends on what they personally view Markstrom progress and how long until his ready.

I would like to hear from someone who has watched Markstrom this year to see how his doing, I know the stats but that doesn't really explain that much.

Part of me feels that Gillis is doing his part to create buzz and tallan wouldn't mind either if that means Burke pays more. Burke just isn't wired that way though.

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01-08-2013, 09:59 AM
  #745
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I agree with you that Van should retain Luongo. My one question is this, in a 48 game sprint, you need to identify your number one goalie and ride him like a mule.....who is it between Lu/Schneider?

No one says you have to ride one goalie. In fact, with a compacted schedule, it makes sense to utilize both in spurts. These guys have co-existed for 2 years. 1 more isn't going to change things.



This is a great advantage for a team that has Kesler injured. They'll play shut-down hockey and rely on brilliant goaltending to siphon points where it would be difficult to do so otherwise. Goaltending is going to be absolutely criticial this year. Might as well exploit the tandem once again.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Seventeen Twos View Post
The more I learn about this the more that I believe salary retention will play a factor in this trade. Potentially increasing the trade value significantly and making it more interesting for more potential parties. That said I ultimately see it being Toronto. It's been Toronto all along and if they can make the cap numbers acceptable to Burke I can see him parting with significant assets. If not, I think the value is in the tank really.



Burke will part with significant assets or his [Luongo's] value is in the tank? That's confusing.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Fogelhund View Post
I see that side of the argument, and I also see the other side...

What happens if Reimer plays great in Toronto, what happens if these other teams mostly do fine?

What happens if Schneider doesn't perform well in a starting capacity? Then you are absolutely stuck with both.

What if Schneider goes down with injury and Luongo has a very poor start... as usual.


Stuck with both? That's a good problem to have. The offseason is still the offseason.



With the benefit of history, I feel very confidence Luongo is going to rise to the top, as he has throughout his career. He's a pretty consistent asset that way. It's other teams that have involved risk into their situations. Odds are one isn't going to get what they expected, while the Canucks _know_ what to expect with their tandem.

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01-08-2013, 10:03 AM
  #746
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
or, arguably, the compressed season means more back to backs and 3-in-4-nights, increasing the value of a platoon, lest your mule gets burned out, even in an overall-shorter season


Bingo. You don't want your goaltending to be fluctuating this year. Or being overworked. Consistency is critical. The more times you get great goaltending, the easier it will be get points, even if your offense is sputtering. It's going to keep you in games you had no business being in. That's what you need to get to the playoffs.



I have to believe now that Gillis retains Luongo and pushes it to the deadline if he can, or beyond. It makes little sense to move this guy without seeing at least 10-20 games of the league in action first.

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01-08-2013, 10:09 AM
  #747
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One thing that can't be overlooked as well, Luongo is known to be a slow starter. What if Van keeps him and he struggles with his starts early on? In which case Cory would play majority if not all of the games and going into next off season, Luongo's value will take a nose dive.

I am not saying that will happen but also naive to think not possible. I like Luongo and would be happy with him with the Leafs, but that's something that concerns me as well considering we are entering a compact 48 game season with no room for fault starts.

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01-08-2013, 10:10 AM
  #748
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Burke will part with significant assets or his [Luongo's] value is in the tank? That's confusing.
what i meant was that if van does not retain salary in a trade his value is in the tank. i see his value varying significantly depending on the amount of salary retained - esp in the later contract years.

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01-08-2013, 10:12 AM
  #749
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
As a Leaf fan, i appreciate his talents as well, it just needs to be a price that works for TO....which probably won't work for Vancouver....it is what it is.
Don't get me wrong, if you want him, go crazy. The posts I'm seeing referring to are the ones that start off with Edmonton being a darkhorse/moderately interested in Luongo and then, BAM, thread ends up becoming "no one wants to go to Edmonton, they aren't winners blah blah"

And I agree, for all parties involved, price needs to be right

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01-08-2013, 10:13 AM
  #750
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Originally Posted by Seventeen Twos View Post
what i meant was that if van does not retain salary in a trade his value is in the tank. i see his value varying significantly depending on the amount of salary retained - esp in the later contract years.


Oh, ok. Then I disagree with your assessment. His value was being debated _before_ the ability to retain salary even became an option. I'm pretty confident it's not in the tank, but we'll see.

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