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Luongo: Light at the end of the tunnel?

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01-08-2013, 02:19 PM
  #901
Peter Griffin
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Originally Posted by Man Bear Pig View Post
Toronto can deal with anyone, can Vancouver say the same?
Can they though? How many teams are looking to move a proven, elite #1 goaltender?

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I want Luongo here but lets not kid ourselves, it's not Luongo or bust.
You're right, it's not. But Luongo is far and away the best option for the Leafs to solidify their goaltending for now and the foreseeable future. Players such as Luongo aren't available often, in fact the last time a proven elite goaltender was moved was in fact Luongo. The tradeoff for the Leafs or any other team looking to acquire him is the less than desirable cap hit when he retires. But that's not a deal breaker for most GM's.

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Sure, Gillis can keep him and he might but how many GM's wanna commit that much cap space to two goalies? It's an envious position in terms of talent between the pipes but it's not an envious position in terms of the cap. Cap management dictates it would be foolish to spend that kind of money between two goalies.
The Canucks' cap hit isn't that much higher than some other teams. $1-2M isn't going to handcuff any teams.


Last edited by Peter Griffin: 01-08-2013 at 02:25 PM.
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01-08-2013, 02:20 PM
  #902
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Can they though? How many teams are looking to move a proven, elite #1 goaltender?.
How many teams are looking to move a goaltender, period? Maybe Bernier, who's not much of an improvement over Reimer, if at all. No one else.

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01-08-2013, 02:20 PM
  #903
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This is an excellent reminder. One that has been glossed over by many fans here. The cap recapture essentially _balances_ the contract, it doesn't just add negative impact to a just "fair" contract. It levels out an "unfair" deal by making it fair, so to speak. I still think the benefit for 6~ years to the leafs/panthers/whomever outweighs the negative impact in the last 3-4 years, still making it good overall instead of just fair.
Not really. The ONLY reason for a 12 year contract is to lower the cap hit. Now that advantage is gone, so essentially there is absolutely no advantage to the contract.

It's arguably 4-5 years of a fair contract with 5 years of BS added on the end.

An excellent point it is not.

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01-08-2013, 02:22 PM
  #904
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A reminder for anyone considering Lu's contract to be somewhat of a negative, remember that his discounted cap hit is in fact discounted. Most of his elite goalie peers sit between 6.25 and 7k per year. Lu would be at 6.7 but for the fact that the cap hit is discounted. The "penalty" just means you pay for this discount later.

The reminder is that he's legitimately worth his 6.7k paycheck - the 5.3k cap hit is a benefit to any team capable of making use of the discount.
Except for those teams that want to stay near the cap floor without spending more than the cap hit. What teams fit that criteria?

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01-08-2013, 02:22 PM
  #905
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Save this post if you want, but if they don't move Lu for value they will not be a winning team.
Value = ?

Are we better trading Lou for Komisarek (who can't make the team) and Connolly and having to play Lack or Keeping Lou and having two great goalies. You made the point we have been trying to get across. Trading Lou for players that can't make the Canucks lineup is counter intuitive. If we trade him for chicken **** we can't make chicken salad.

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01-08-2013, 02:23 PM
  #906
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Not really. The ONLY reason for a 12 year contract is to lower the cap hit. Now that advantage is gone, so essentially there is absolutely no advantage to the contract.

An excellent point it is not.
The advantage isn't gone, the value of the cap hit/salary ratio allows the Leafs to ice a more competitive team for the next 5 years. After that the cap difference is moved to a later point in the future. So the question is would Burke think it's worth it to start contending now as opposed to in 6/7 years time when Luongo retires, or if he'd rather roll with Reimer/Scrivens while Phaneuf and Kessel and Lupul all have contract extensions within the next year or two.

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01-08-2013, 02:24 PM
  #907
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Really? So they'll just go get Lundqvist then, eh?
If the price is right.

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01-08-2013, 02:25 PM
  #908
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
So the question is would Burke think it's worth it to start contending now as opposed to in 6/7 years time when Luongo retires, or if he'd rather roll with Reimer/Scrivens while Phaneuf and Kessel and Lupul all have contract extensions within the next year or two.
Irrelevant. I would be great if people stayed on topic.

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01-08-2013, 02:26 PM
  #909
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Really? So they'll just go get Lundqvist then, eh?
How in the world you came to this conclusion is beyond me.

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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
You are right, the field is open for Burke. He can go get another goaltender. Let's see what he does.


For VAN, all they need is two teams. One as the actual destination, and one you can play interest off of. He has that here.


Luongo's tenure in VAN has an ending point. No question. He won't be kept indefinitely. That said, your point about cap management is moot. If there is another trade lined up that required cap, then there is an opportunity cost in retaining Luongo. But there has to be that other trade lined up first. If there isn't, the cap spent this year doesn't matter. They are under.
Oh no, I'm not suggesting Luongo may put you over, that's not what I implied. I'm saying it just a tough pill to swallow down the road, which I didn't say in my previous post and should have mentioned. It's not really about this season specifically but down the road, this has to come an stop at a personal and financial level. If this were any other position, there wouldn't even be a discussion(in terms of the cap). I just don't think it makes sense, all things given, to keep him around in the fishbowl that is Vancouver. Not that Toronto is any better in that sense but he won't have anyone breathing down his neck in terms of goalie prospects. At least for the moment.

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01-08-2013, 02:28 PM
  #910
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Irrelevant. I would be great if people stayed on topic.
How is it irrelevant? Given Toronto's team make-up, would they rather compete now for the next 5 years and maybe do a quick retool after that? Or would they rather continue with bad goaltending while most of their core wastes prime years and possibly walks due to being fed up with a team that will have been uncompetitive for almost a decade.

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01-08-2013, 02:28 PM
  #911
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Not really. The ONLY reason for a 12 year contract is to lower the cap hit. Now that advantage is gone, so essentially there is absolutely no advantage to the contract.

It's arguably 4-5 years of a fair contract with 5 years of BS added on the end.

An excellent point it is not.

Still an excellent point by var. It's more like 6 and 3. 6 years at a discount and 3 at a penalty. And the discount comes now as opposed to later. And the penalty later is about 2m per for 3 years (a depth player of extra LTIR space). The advantage isn't gone. It's there for 5-6 years.


Oh, and your evaluation that it is a "fair" contract for 4-5 years is highly amusing. 5.3m, as var puts it, doesn't align with the 6.7m or 6.25m his peers are taking up. That's not "fair", that's a discount. But keep trying though.

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01-08-2013, 02:29 PM
  #912
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Irrelevant. I would be great if people stayed on topic.
Haha how is his point _not_ relevant? This is funny.

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01-08-2013, 02:30 PM
  #913
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I don't think Burke trades Kulemin. Just re-signed him, and he's been playing well in the KHL.

Expecting a bounce back year for him.

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01-08-2013, 02:31 PM
  #914
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Paying Luongo 6.7M for the next six seasons in NOT market value. The only reason those numbers made sense is if the cap hit was advantageous.

Now it's not and in effect any Vancouver fans who feel paying a 38, 39 year old 6.7M is market value is crazy.

Show me a comparable.

The recapture feature most certainly hurts his value and was a mistake by Gillis. How much is debatable but all these excuses how it's now a 'fair contract' or a 'negligible difference' is absolutely kidding themselves.

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01-08-2013, 02:32 PM
  #915
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Irrelevant. I would be great if people stayed on topic.
It's quite relevant. The Leafs are arguably two key pieces away from being a legit playoff contending team, a solid, #1 goaltender and a proven #1 center. Acquiring Luongo could very well help them to acquire that other piece this off-season when there are a number of options that could be available during UFA. Is a Getzlaf, Zajac or Weiss more likely to re-sign with Toronto after another disappointing year where their goaltending questions haven't been answered or with a proven, elite goaltender in the mix? What about Phil Kessel, is he likely to re-sign when the teams most important position hasn't been addressed? Sure, Reimer/Scrivens or something else could present itself down the road and fix the Leafs' goaltending issue, but given Burke's track record with "finding" goaltending talent, I wouldn't count on it.

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01-08-2013, 02:32 PM
  #916
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How in the world you came to this conclusion is beyond me.


Oh no, I'm not suggesting Luongo may put you over, that's not what I implied. I'm saying it just a tough pill to swallow down the road, which I didn't say in my previous post and should have mentioned. It's not really about this season specifically but down the road, this has to come an stop at a personal and financial level. If this were any other position, there wouldn't even be a discussion(in terms of the cap). I just don't think it makes sense, all things given, to keep him around in the fishbowl that is Vancouver. Not that Toronto is any better in that sense but he won't have anyone breathing down his neck in terms of goalie prospects. At least for the moment.


Gotcha. I don't expect him to be a Canuck past this season, even in the worst case. So I'm not considering his cap being on the books during that time.

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01-08-2013, 02:32 PM
  #917
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How in the world you came to this conclusion is beyond me.


Oh no, I'm not suggesting Luongo may put you over, that's not what I implied. I'm saying it just a tough pill to swallow down the road, which I didn't say in my previous post and should have mentioned. It's not really about this season specifically but down the road, this has to come an stop at a personal and financial level. If this were any other position, there wouldn't even be a discussion(in terms of the cap). I just don't think it makes sense, all things given, to keep him around in the fishbowl that is Vancouver. Not that Toronto is any better in that sense but he won't have anyone breathing down his neck in terms of goalie prospects. At least for the moment.
Goaltending in Toronto has been so bad that even if Lou was 1/3 the goalie he was in Van he would still look elite.

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01-08-2013, 02:33 PM
  #918
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Haha how is his point _not_ relevant? This is funny.
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How is it irrelevant?
Because my point is strictly based on the value of his contract and whether it's fair or whatever each new Vancouver fan is spewing.

Skipping over that conversation is again turning a blind eye to the problem, sorry.

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01-08-2013, 02:34 PM
  #919
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Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
Paying Luongo 6.7M for the next six seasons in NOT market value. The only reason those numbers made sense is if the cap hit was advantageous.

Now it's not and in effect any Vancouver fans who feel paying a 38, 39 year old 6.7M is market value is crazy.

Show me a comparable.

The recapture feature most certainly hurts his value and was a mistake by Gillis. How much is debatable but all these excuses how it's now a 'fair contract' or a 'negligible difference' is absolutely kidding themselves.
The salary being paid is meaningless to Toronto. 5.3 million for Luongo compared to Bryzgalov at 5.7 mil, Lehtonen at 6 mil, Price at 6.5 million, etc is excellent cap usage for any team that spends to the cap. It's only when his salary drops and his play declines and he retires that the team would get hit with a 2 mil slap on the wrist.

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01-08-2013, 02:34 PM
  #920
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Can they though? How many teams are looking to move a proven, elite #1 goaltender?
Well, the Leafs are looking for a goalie, whether it be a stop-gap or an elite one. They won't necessarily be looking for an elite goalie that costs and arm and a leg.



Quote:
You're right, it's not. But Luongo is far and away the best option for the Leafs to solidify their goaltending for now and the foreseeable future. Players such as Luongo aren't available often, in fact the last time a proven elite goaltender was moved was in fact Luongo. The tradeoff for the Leafs or any other team looking to acquire him is the less than desirable cap hit when he retires. But that's not a deal breaker for most GM's.
He likely is the best available in reality but the pricetag may be too high. He's Vancouvers to shop, not Toronto's to lose out on. Again, there are other options that none of us even know about.

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01-08-2013, 02:36 PM
  #921
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The salary being paid is meaningless to Toronto.
IT'S NOT! They will be penalized on the cap for it.

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01-08-2013, 02:37 PM
  #922
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Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
Paying Luongo 6.7M for the next six seasons in NOT market value. The only reason those numbers made sense is if the cap hit was advantageous.

Now it's not and in effect any Vancouver fans who feel paying a 38, 39 year old 6.7M is market value is crazy.

Show me a comparable.

The recapture feature most certainly hurts his value and was a mistake by Gillis. How much is debatable but all these excuses how it's now a 'fair contract' or a 'negligible difference' is absolutely kidding themselves.
Who cares what his actual salary is? Are you really concerned over how much money Bell and Rogers spend on Luongo?
His cap hit is all that matters for your team's roster and success. 5.3 is fairly reasonable for his talent, especially when you look at what other goalies receive that are comparable to Luongo.

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01-08-2013, 02:38 PM
  #923
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Because my point is strictly based on the value of his contract and whether it's fair or whatever each new Vancouver fan is spewing.

Skipping over that conversation is again turning a blind eye to the problem, sorry.
Speaking of which...

Value is determined by the buyer. Luongo is very likely the biggest impact player Burke may ever find during his tenure with the Leafs, in terms of on-ice performance, retaining core players, and attracting high profile UFAs. Don't you think that affects what Burke would be willing to give up?

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01-08-2013, 02:38 PM
  #924
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It seems like more vancouver fans are trying to push Lu out the door, than Toronto fans trying to justify a trade in this thread. I will tell you this right now, alot of fans do not want Luongo assuming that his price tag will probably involve multiple pieces, and some of which may be toronto's future. Burke should stay far away from this if he knew whats best, we should at least give Reimer this shortened season to turn his play around and regain his form from 2 years ago. If it doesnt work out, then we can safely begin to start looking elsewhere knowing we assessed our internal talent, and it did not suffice (better being sure, then not knowing at all).

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01-08-2013, 02:39 PM
  #925
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Show me a comparable.
Martin Brodeur's salary last season was $5.2M which he signed back in 06/07 under a $44M cap. I'd say the Devils were pretty happy with what Brodeur was able to accomplish last year.

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