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Highest Scoring Defensemen: 5v5 and 5v4... and where the Jets' fell

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01-08-2013, 12:50 AM
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garret9
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Highest Scoring Defensemen: 5v5 and 5v4... and where the Jets' fell

Too much excitement about the Jets' coming back for another season...
Must run more stats...

Okay, time for some more fun. I should clear things up since this isn't really just the highest scoring defensemen... it's never that simple with me; I'll explain as we go.



Even Strength:
It's not enough to just score as a defensemen, you have to be competent enough to push play into the other zone and the best do it without being sheltered. Some guys get nice point totals (boxcar stats) because they get all the icetime... some because they're just good at it. Well, let's take a look at the highest scoring rates relative to ice-time of non-sheltered individuals who were not being out-shot.
(For the stat guys: >0 RelQoC, >3.5 Corsi, +30GP)

NameTeamRelCorsi G/60A1/60P/60
Karlsson OTT 11.3 0.60 0.52 1.72
Letang PIT 06.4 0.20 0.66 1.38
Bieksa PIT 07.6 0.25 0.34 1.31
Niktin CBJ 08.1 0.23 0.35 1.28
ByfuglienWPG 13.1 0.28 0.42 1.27
Chara BOS 13.0 0.16 0.44 1.24
Timonen PHI 08.2 0.00 0.65 1.19
EnstromWPG 14.5 0.21 0.42 0.99
Ehrhoff BUF 03.9 0.20 0.31 0.97
Ekman-Larsson PHX 6.4 0.41 0.17 0.95
After that (in order):
Streit, Hamhuis, Visnovsky, Burns, Weber, White, Pietrangelo, Martin, Garrison, Subban, Lidstrom, Campbell, Suter, Tyutin, Boychuk, Fowler, Sekera, Colaiacovo, Beauchemin, and Robidas

Bogosian didn't make the cut due to poor possession stats (IMHO, thanks to Stuart and "Free Pizza" Oduya). But, here's what to anticipate when he does make it with full year of Hainsey or better.
NameTeamRelCorsi G/60A1/60P/60
Bogosian WPG-2.7 0.21 0.32 1.12
Pretty great offensive numbers from Bogosian. I'm excited to see how he does when he has a great partner beside him like Enstrom, Trouba or Hainsey's upgrade.

Here's where our two high-end Jets land:
NameTeamRelCorsi G/60A1/60P/60
Byfuglien WPG02 06 07 05
Enstrom WPG01 13 06 08
Hmm... doesn't look like Enstrom had an off year offensively, at least at even strength. His numbers were some of the best of his career.
Bogosian was best since his rookie year.



Power Play:
Now the power-play is a different story. Pretty much all that matters is scoring. As I noted in the Hainsey thread I made, PP is where a large chunk of defensemen's scoring comes from. This is top 30 irregardless of being "sheltered" (it's PP... everyone is getting easy minutes!)
NameTeam G/60A1/60P/60
PietrangeloSTL 1.342.696.19
Chara BOS 2.441.835.48
Whitney EDM 1.081.625.41
Campbell FLA 0.182.372.37
Shattenkirk STL 1.321.854.77
ByfuglienWPG0.841.674.73
Weber NSH 2.011.564.47
Karlsson OTT 0.612.834.44
Suter NSH 0.422.324.44
Edler VAN 1.091.094.38
Streit, EJohnson, Letang, Wideman, Potter, Phaneuf, Burns, Leddy, Kronwall, Colaiacovo, Timonen, Lidstrom, Kulikov, Foster, Gonchar, Liles, Enstrom, Bouwmeester, Tuytin, and McBane

NameTeam G/60A1/60P/60
Enstrom WPG0.630.633.45
Bogosian WPG0.381.542.69
This is actually the second highest G/60, and p/60 of Enstrom's PP career but the lowest PP TOI/60 and A1/60 of his career. I'll do an Enstrom breakdown some other time but it seems he didn't have a bad offensive year. He just got less PP TOI and less games played.
Just like even-strength, this was Bogosian's best since his rookie season.

Here's where our two high-end Jets land:
NameTeam G/60A1/60P/60
Byfuglien WPG15 10 06
Enstrom WPG19 28 27
Bogosian would have been 44 in P/60 on the list.
Again we have two in the top 30, and one just outside.



Summary:
It seems we have the problem of having two #1's and a #1-2 tweener when it comes to offense. Not a bad problem to have at all

Defensively they are pretty good too. Byfuglien still has his issues, but that's another topic.


PS:
I already have done a breakdown of Burmistrov, Hainsey and Pavelec... I think I'll do as many as I can before the NHL starts up. Feel free to PM me any requests of which players you'd want me to do next


Last edited by garret9: 01-08-2013 at 01:24 PM. Reason: spelling
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01-08-2013, 12:58 AM
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wpgsilver
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Excellent work Garret!
Even a stat novice like me is able to follow along.
Always an interesting read, can't wait for the next one.

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01-08-2013, 04:09 AM
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Thanks garret =) keep it up we always appreciate the work

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01-08-2013, 08:54 AM
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awesome. just awesome.

Did you/has someone done an analysis of these threes "defensive" abilities? I for one would like to contract Buff's postioning in the offensive charts against his defensive ones to see where he averages out..

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01-08-2013, 10:01 AM
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garret I know the guys are thanking you but I want to double down and REALLY THANK YOU . I use to turn my nose up at advanced stats because I feel good watching and assessing by eye. What advanced stats have taught me is that my eye is actually pretty good but it’s not great. When my emotion or bias gets mixed in it really skews results up and down and my eye starts watching for what I want it to see to validate my viewpoint.

Buff was probably the guy I needed the advanced stats for the most. Watching him not commit to fitness and then waddling back into the play after hanging Toby out to dry on what felt like endless 2 v 1’s drove me crazy. I was convinced he was a net liability and at some points during the season I prayed that we just trade the guy for a real and reliable defenseman. To be fair to myself there was a stretch before I was paying attention to advanced stats that I was actually getting on his bandwagon because I thought his D game was getting better but on balance he was a target for me.

Two things happened to tweak my point of view on Dusty Buff. First was an interview I heard with Chevy (at the end of the season) on TSN 1290 and Chevy said "When Dustin is out of the lineup we become an easier team to defend, Buff is a special type of instinctual player that keeps other coaching staffs up at night". Although I would have liked to correct Kevin and tell him "he actually keeps both coaching staffs up at night” his point was not lost on me. I remember when Buff was out for a stretch it did seem like we were more predictable. Secondly, the advanced stats. I thought the plus minus was all I needed to validate my viewpoint but the advanced stats educated me to look for more. Fast forward to now and I still rely on my eye but I let the advanced stats dictate a person's statistical accomplishments and force my eye to look for what I was missing.

I am still not giving Buff a pass for his historical conditioning issues because a better fitness level would only improve his play but I am more balanced now.

My biggest challenge is when someone tells me Buff sucks for the same reason's I always used I find it hard to say "yea but have you checked out his CORSI"?? advanced stats are hard to verbalize without having someone glaze over on you

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01-08-2013, 11:18 AM
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garret9
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@ps thank you for your kind words, but your eye isn't that bad either...
I don't want to go off topic here because a lot of this will be discussed in Byfuglien's breakdown. Yes advance stats point out to what Chevy and Noel know; Buff is effective. But, they also point out what you saw before; he is imperfect, has faults, could improve, can be a defensive liability, etc.... But we'll get to that later. :p

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01-08-2013, 01:27 PM
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two small edits done... just minor fixes (had one too many columns in one table, etc)


I'm thinking the breakdowns I'll do in order are:
Byfuglien
Enstrom
Bogosian
(finishing our top4 D)

then follow up by our two potential top 6 lines
Ladd
Little
Wheeler
Kane
Jokinen
Wellwood

And then finish it off with the two remaining 3rd liners
Ponikarovsky
Antropov

Please people let me know if you think otherwise

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01-08-2013, 11:14 PM
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garret9
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Just an idea of what they might have looked like without injuries...
I say might because, if they didn't lose as many games with injuries, they would have played together more also which they both did better offensively and defensively when together (as did the Jets)

Actual
NameGPGAPTSPPGPPA
Byfuglien 66 12 41 53 4 15
Enstrom 62 06 27 33 2 09

Full Game Schedule
NameGPGAPTSPPGPPA
Byfuglien 82 15 51 66 5 19
Enstrom 82 08 36 44 3 12

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