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Who do the Oilers buyout? (If anyone)

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Old
01-09-2013, 10:17 AM
  #326
Reimer
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I love how this line keeps being pumped out as though it's fact despite the fact that in runs in glaring contrast to his reputation as well as what has been said by people who would actually know one way or another.
When is the last time after a loss that Horcoff has taken any blame for the team playing like ****?

Good captains and leaders do that, they are the captain to deflect attention from others not give unneeded attention to others. Just look at the captain on the team to the south.

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01-09-2013, 10:17 AM
  #327
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Originally Posted by Philly85 View Post
When a guy is that overpaid, devoid of any leadership skills as your captain, isn't physical and whose one "thing you could hang your hat on" - faceoffs - he isn't even good at anymore... Then combine all this with a -50 in the past 3 years... that doesn't tell me he's that good or that serviceable as a hockey player. Not to mention he's a black hole offensively. That suggests to me is probably a 4th liner.
Forget the fact that he's overpaid. We all know he is, but for this season and next its pretty much irrelevant unless they go big fish hunting in the off season at which time they can buy him out if needed.

How can you say he has no leadership qualities? He seems to do a fine job to me. But really we have no idea how good/bad he is as a leader because 80% of his job as a captain is done in the dressing room behind closed doors.

Over the last 4 seasons which have all been disappointing in terms of what we once expected of Horcoff he has still produced 0.53 points per game. As a 3rd line player I'm happy with that kind of output. Sure it might drop a bit given he won't see as much time with Hall and Eberle like he did in the last 2 seasons but even if he goes down to 0.45 I'm still happy with that from a 3rd liner. So he's not a complete black hole offensively.

As for his -50 rating over the past 3 years. Remember that we are talk about the guy who has played against the teams best forwards on a team that just drafted first overall 3 years in a row.

Sure Horcoff is not the ideal guy, but i think we are stuck with him for at least this season, and I think he is going to fill the 3rd line Center position just fine. And who knows maybe Belanger has a more Belanger like season and takes over the 3rd line center position and then Horcoff ends up as our 4th line Center. I'd say that's not a bad situation to be in.

The Oilers can win with Horcoff on the team and as a the captain. If you don't agree with that then you probably hate Horcoff a little too much.

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01-09-2013, 10:31 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Oil Gauge View Post
Over the last 4 seasons which have all been disappointing in terms of what we once expected of Horcoff he has still produced 0.53 points per game. As a 3rd line player I'm happy with that kind of output. Sure it might drop a bit given he won't see as much time with Hall and Eberle like he did in the last 2 seasons but even if he goes down to 0.45 I'm still happy with that from a 3rd liner. So he's not a complete black hole offensively.

Sure Horcoff is not the ideal guy, but i think we are stuck with him for at least this season, and I think he is going to fill the 3rd line Center position just fine. And who knows maybe Belanger has a more Belanger like season and takes over the 3rd line center position and then Horcoff ends up as our 4th line Center. I'd say that's not a bad situation to be in.

The Oilers can win with Horcoff on the team and as a the captain. If you don't agree with that then you probably hate Horcoff a little too much.
I love the 3rd line player comments. Maybe he could suffice as a 3rd line player but that hasn't ever happened. If you look at his actual TOI over the past few season he has been in the top 3*(see below) for forwards for Oilers too making his numbers that much worse.

Yes we are stuck with him for this season but these free buyouts is a get out of jail free card from that contract, if they don't use that then management is simply just idiots.

How do you know the Oilers can win with Horcoff? seems like an odd statement to make when the team has posted some of it's worst seasons in franchise history with him at the helm as captain.

EDIT - Actually I just surprised myself. Horcoff has been the TOI leader for this team the last 6, yes 6 seasons. 7 seasons ago he was number 2 to Smyth. Wow he's even more pathetic than I even thought.


Last edited by Reimer: 01-09-2013 at 10:36 AM.
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01-09-2013, 10:50 AM
  #329
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I love how this line keeps being pumped out as though it's fact despite the fact that in runs in glaring contrast to his reputation as well as what has been said by people who would actually know one way or another.
Do you actually think any of the young stars would be stupid enough to call out thecaptainshawnhorcoff for the crap captain that he is. They know he is besties with Lowe and Ownership. They would be blackballed around the league and get a bad rep, even if what they said was true. You don't kick your bosses deaf three legged dog right in front of him. Especially in Edmonton where the media is just waiting to write something negative about players.

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01-09-2013, 10:56 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
I love the 3rd line player comments. Maybe he could suffice as a 3rd line player but that hasn't ever happened. If you look at his actual TOI over the past few season he has been in the top 3*(see below) for forwards for Oilers too making his numbers that much worse.

Yes we are stuck with him for this season but these free buyouts is a get out of jail free card from that contract, if they don't use that then management is simply just idiots.

How do you know the Oilers can win with Horcoff? seems like an odd statement to make when the team has posted some of it's worst seasons in franchise history with him at the helm as captain.

EDIT - Actually I just surprised myself. Horcoff has been the TOI leader for this team the last 6, yes 6 seasons. 7 seasons ago he was number 2 to Smyth. Wow he's even more pathetic than I even thought.
The bolded part about TOI exemplifies how crappy our coaching has been as well as how crappy Horcoff is. The two together is a perfect storm for acquiring #1 draft picks.

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01-09-2013, 11:01 AM
  #331
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Originally Posted by OilDrop37 View Post
The bolded part about TOI exemplifies how crappy our coaching has been as well as how crappy Horcoff is. The two together is a perfect storm for acquiring #1 draft picks.
it also shows how crappy the team was in general. look at the line up the oilers have had, and the players on the team the past 6 years. the Oilers have been the poo-poo platter. (then you factor inthe huge amount of injuries, too)
Horcoff got a lot of ice time party due to the lack of any other options.

I agree on the crappy coaching. I think 95% of the people here thought Smyth was getting way too much ice time last year and was going to burn out halfway through the season if it was kept up. how could everyone but the coaches see that, especially looking at Smyth's history?

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01-09-2013, 11:13 AM
  #332
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it also shows how crappy the team was in general. look at the line up the oilers have had, and the players on the team the past 6 years. the Oilers have been the poo-poo platter. (then you factor inthe huge amount of injuries, too)
Horcoff got a lot of ice time party due to the lack of any other options.

I agree on the crappy coaching. I think 95% of the people here thought Smyth was getting way too much ice time last year and was going to burn out halfway through the season if it was kept up. how could everyone but the coaches see that, especially looking at Smyth's history?
Yep and that starts from the top down, whether you want to consider that players or even management.

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01-09-2013, 12:16 PM
  #333
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You mean the way he never accepts responsibility and instead throws teammates under the bus?
Again, I hear people saying this a lot. I don't ever recall him actually doing it. I'd love to see some examples.

Quote:
Or the way he complains about his pp TOI?
Oh right. I forgot about the time it was suggested in the media that there was an issue with a vetran player being unhappy about that. I also remember how everyone was sure it was Smyth (despite the fact that nobody knew one way or another). Somewhere along the way someone (and I think it was you) said it was Horcoff all of a sudden and that's what everyone's been going with since. Maybe I missed something, but I don't remember reading anything that confirmed that.

Let's not forget that Horcoff was 4th on the team in PPTOI/G and 2nd in total PPTOI last year. Why would we all assume he's the one complaining about the amount of powerplay time he's getting?

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01-09-2013, 12:16 PM
  #334
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
I love the 3rd line player comments. Maybe he could suffice as a 3rd line player but that hasn't ever happened. If you look at his actual TOI over the past few season he has been in the top 3*(see below) for forwards for Oilers too making his numbers that much worse.

Yes we are stuck with him for this season but these free buyouts is a get out of jail free card from that contract, if they don't use that then management is simply just idiots.

How do you know the Oilers can win with Horcoff? seems like an odd statement to make when the team has posted some of it's worst seasons in franchise history with him at the helm as captain.

EDIT - Actually I just surprised myself. Horcoff has been the TOI leader for this team the last 6, yes 6 seasons. 7 seasons ago he was number 2 to Smyth. Wow he's even more pathetic than I even thought.
And how would you expect any 3rd line player to fair taking on such a work load? Horcoff obviously shouldn't be getting that much ice time on any team, let alone a bad team like the Oilers where he has no support around him. Hopefully now that the young kids are ready to take that work load from him Krueger will actually let it happen, let Horcoff fall into a role he can handle.

I agree that they should buy him out, but I don't think its the right move this summer. Unless they have a viable option to fill the 3rd and 4th line center positions. In the summer of 2014 they should definitely buy him out as his contract will start to cause cap problems in the 2015 season. By then Lander should be ready to fill the 3rd Line center roll.

The Oilers can win with Horcoff as a 3rd line center because Horcoff is capable of being an average 3rd line center. If you put Horcoff on a team like the canucks in Manny's spot that team still wins games, NO?

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01-09-2013, 01:49 PM
  #335
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Originally Posted by Oil Gauge View Post
And how would you expect any 3rd line player to fair taking on such a work load? Horcoff obviously shouldn't be getting that much ice time on any team, let alone a bad team like the Oilers where he has no support around him. Hopefully now that the young kids are ready to take that work load from him Krueger will actually let it happen, let Horcoff fall into a role he can handle.

I agree that they should buy him out, but I don't think its the right move this summer. Unless they have a viable option to fill the 3rd and 4th line center positions. In the summer of 2014 they should definitely buy him out as his contract will start to cause cap problems in the 2015 season. By then Lander should be ready to fill the 3rd Line center roll.

The Oilers can win with Horcoff as a 3rd line center because Horcoff is capable of being an average 3rd line center. If you put Horcoff on a team like the canucks in Manny's spot that team still wins games, NO?
You could have 2 Maholtra's for the cost of Horcoff, and Manny alone is more effective as a faceoff/defensive specialist, even with the eye injury.

The Oilers would be much better off with two 3 million dollar players or three 2 million dollar players, than Horcoff fumbling around on the 3rd or 4th lines soaking up minutes he isn't effective at. It may be wishful thinking with this management group, but there is always that bit of hope as a fan that if Horcoff wasn't around absorbing a huge chunk of cap every year, the team would be able to aquire some younger, lower priced, and more effective depth to improve the team towards actually winning games.

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01-09-2013, 02:07 PM
  #336
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Originally Posted by nabob View Post
Do you actually think any of the young stars would be stupid enough to call out thecaptainshawnhorcoff for the crap captain that he is. They know he is besties with Lowe and Ownership. They would be blackballed around the league and get a bad rep, even if what they said was true. You don't kick your bosses deaf three legged dog right in front of him. Especially in Edmonton where the media is just waiting to write something negative about players.
This is called defending against cognitive dissonance.

It can't possibly be that the younger player feel Horcoff has been helpful in them becoming pros (because you said so), so it must be because they aren't being honest.

Especially since your critique of the Edmonton media isn't even in line with other perspectives (that the Edmonton Media coddles the Oilers).

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01-09-2013, 02:18 PM
  #337
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
You mean the way he never accepts responsibility and instead throws teammates under the bus?

Or the way he complains about his pp TOI?
I've seen this mentioned a few times in the past few days on HF... When did Horcoff complain about his PP time? He was on the first unit.. I don't get it.

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01-09-2013, 02:18 PM
  #338
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You got the stones to honor our bet in a shortened season?
Yes, a bet is a bet. My take was based on a full season and injury shortened, but nonetheless, I'm still on ... and in trouble.

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01-09-2013, 02:22 PM
  #339
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When is the last time after a loss that Horcoff has taken any blame for the team playing like ****?

Good captains and leaders do that, they are the captain to deflect attention from others not give unneeded attention to others. Just look at the captain on the team to the south.
Yes, Jason Smith has a legacy of going "This loss is my fault." So did Weight, Messier, even Gretzky.

No doubt Iginla does too. (In Iggy's case it's also likely never the case, to the point that saying "It's my fault" is effectively just a lie).

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01-09-2013, 02:33 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
This is called defending against cognitive dissonance.

It can't possibly be that the younger player feel Horcoff has been helpful in them becoming pros (because you said so), so it must be because they aren't being honest.

Especially since your critique of the Edmonton media isn't even in line with other perspectives (that the Edmonton Media coddles the Oilers).
You're calling it defending against cognitive dissonance because you believe Horcoff is a good captain, or at least it's undetermined.

He's offering an opinion that we can't rely on what the players say in the media to be their true feelings, hard to see anything wrong with that comment.

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01-09-2013, 03:22 PM
  #341
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The Oilers can win with Horcoff as a 3rd line center because Horcoff is capable of being an average 3rd line center. If you put Horcoff on a team like the canucks in Manny's spot that team still wins games, NO?
What the hell is this ramble jamble?

I'll tell you what it is, its a false positive. Something you are stating as true but is completely false because there is absolutely no evidence to support any of it.

Let's break it down:

Quote:
The Oilers can win with Horcoff as a 3rd line center
Facts:
-The Oilers have never had Horcoff play as a 3rd line minutes in the past 7 years
-Last time Horcoff played less than 1st line minutes(03-04) the team missed the playoffs.
-As a leader of the Oilers the team has won jack ****.

Quote:
Horcoff is capable of being an average 3rd line center
Facts:
-Can't find any facts here because I don't know the last time Horcoff actually played a 3rd line role.

Quote:
If you put Horcoff on a team like the canucks in Manny's spot that team still wins games
Facts:
-Vancouver has won with various 3rd line centers
-None of those centers costed them 5.5million a season


Going back to your earlier comment of buying him out the next off-season, is that still going to be a possibility and be a free buyout and not have the cap hit spread out over twice the length of the remaining contract?

If the answer is no well then it's that simple they need to cut the dead weight and use the get out of jail free card when they can. Whether they have a realistic repalcement next off-season or not. You can't tell me it's impossible to find a serviceable 3rd line center replacement via the FA market or cheap via a trade.

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01-09-2013, 04:18 PM
  #342
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You're calling it defending against cognitive dissonance because you believe Horcoff is a good captain, or at least it's undetermined.

He's offering an opinion that we can't rely on what the players say in the media to be their true feelings, hard to see anything wrong with that comment.
People believe what the players say when it falls in line with what the observer already believes. This is called confirmation bias. If we're to take your perspective, and say we cannot rely on what players say in the media to be their true feelings, then we've effectively written off anything that the players say, ever.

I'm not really qualified to say whether or not Horcoff is a good captain (virtually no one this board is, actually). He certainly hasn't gone off and done anything Shayne Corson (or even Ethan Moreau) like. There are people that are clearly poor captains, and Horcoff isn't one of them. We're definitively not qualified to say whether or not the players are being honest in their assessment of Horcoff. The only reason to be completely dismissive of these comments (but not all of their comments) is if you don't want the comments to be true.

If one wishes to dismiss anything positive said about Horcoff being a good captain as being unreliable, then I'd suspect you're letting your feelings about Horcoff, the player, affect everything you feel about him.

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01-09-2013, 04:24 PM
  #343
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
How much is Shawn Horcoff worth?

How much of his 5.5mil cap hit does he earn?
Give some justification for your Ideas!

Not meant to be mean.
I believe you are better than this.

Will Start With Role #1
PP:
Face off, Down low Front Net presence Center on a unit that gets 8.54 GF/60 while he is on the Ice.

Lets look at centers with his GF rate.
M. Fisher 9.50 GF/60 4.2M
P. Statstny 8.86 GF/60 6.6M
N. Backstrom 8.77 GF/60 6.7M
F. Nielson 8.70 GF/60 2.75M
P. Marleau 8.50Gf/60 6.9M
D. Backes 8.36 GF/60 4.5M
E. Malkin 8.16 GF/60 8.7M

Role #2
Even;

there are 96 basic even situations a player can be subjected to.
that yields an expected point rate and ga rate for each group.

Cause no one is stupid enough to think.
1. you can score equally whether you start in offensive zone or D zone.
2. there is no difference betwen 1st line comp and 4th line comp.
3. there is no difference between 1st line teamates and 4th line teamates.

Shawn horcoff played
Less than 45% zone start Center;
Facing 1st comp
with 3rd line teamates.
this has been the most difficult situation in the league.
10 forwards face this each year.

The average since the lockout:
A forward is expected to get 1.1Pt/60 and have 2.87 EVGA/60
Last year horcoff
Was 1.04P/60
2.89GA/60
Slightly under expected average for situation.

no longer the 07-08 or 08-09 Horcoff who averaged
2.05P/60 and 2.51Ga/60


Last year horcoff got tough zone coverage so the likes of

RNH 62.5%zone start 2nd Comp 1st Teamates
Expected P/60 2.35 actual 1.97
Expected GA 2.55 Actual 2.73

Eberle 60.7% Zone Start 2nd Comp 1st Teamates
Expected p/60 2.35 Actual 3.08
Expected Ga 2.55 Actual 3.08

Hall 56.5% Zone Start 2nd Comp 2nd Teamates
Expected p/60 2.10 Actual 2.07
Expected Ga 2.55 Actual 2.87

could get the easy sledding.

proper coaching is slotting your roster in the 96 situations that best help you to win.

any how!

The centers who played in this role:
Bolland
Laich
Plekanec
Backlund
Couturier (my pick for the Selke and Calder)
Just a freak year.
Best defensive year in the last 10 years.

Role #3
PK
1/2 PK unit 2.5Min
A 6.15GA/60 Center

Equal numbers
Couturier
Talbot
Malhotra
Gordon

Slighty better
kopitar
Stoll
Gaustad
Belanger
Plekanec

So I think we have our answer.

Sean Couturier 1.37M EL
Thomas Plekanec 5.0M
will get you better Even & Pk results for horcoffs situation
but these two fail on the PP

A combination of
Gaustad 3.25M
Fisher 4.2M
come the closest to covering all three situations.

While I love the Buy out Horcoff Montra.

Any time someone says buyout horcoff.
it says
1. to lazy to look at replacement
or
2. complete lack of understanding of the game
-were you start
-who you face
-with who
-goals you get
-goals you give up.
or
3. in grade 1-7 and just want to fit in with the peers on HF Board.

Buy him out.

The majic hockey fairy will make us a center who can fill his role for 7.5M

Or we can trade for
Fisher
and
Gaustad.

which one of you wants Plastic surgery to look like C. Underwood.

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01-09-2013, 04:33 PM
  #344
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Again, I hear people saying this a lot. I don't ever recall him actually doing it. I'd love to see some examples.
On the rare occasion he took to speak with the media after games or during a losing streak, it was there. One of the times I recall it was Dubnyk he threw under the bus, over the issue of a poor pk or something like that. It was pathetic.

Quote:
Oh right. I forgot about the time it was suggested in the media that there was an issue with a vetran player being unhappy about that. I also remember how everyone was sure it was Smyth (despite the fact that nobody knew one way or another). Somewhere along the way someone (and I think it was you) said it was Horcoff all of a sudden and that's what everyone's been going with since. Maybe I missed something, but I don't remember reading anything that confirmed that.

Let's not forget that Horcoff was 4th on the team in PPTOI/G and 2nd in total PPTOI last year. Why would we all assume he's the one complaining about the amount of powerplay time he's getting?
Because around the time of the alleged complaining he was put back on the first unit pp, after briefly being taken off. It was pretty obvious who the "vet" was.

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01-09-2013, 04:38 PM
  #345
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Didn't Horcoff also say something to the media about Hall hogging the puck and taking extended shifts as well? I think it was in Hall's rookie season iirc.

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01-09-2013, 04:40 PM
  #346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Give some justification for your Ideas!

Not meant to be mean.
I believe you are better than this.

Will Start With Role #1
PP:
Face off, Down low Front Net presence Center on a unit that gets 8.54 GF/60 while he is on the Ice.

Lets look at centers with his GF rate.
M. Fisher 9.50 GF/60 4.2M
P. Statstny 8.86 GF/60 6.6M
N. Backstrom 8.77 GF/60 6.7M
F. Nielson 8.70 GF/60 2.75M
P. Marleau 8.50Gf/60 6.9M
D. Backes 8.36 GF/60 4.5M
E. Malkin 8.16 GF/60 8.7M

Role #2
Even;

there are 96 basic even situations a player can be subjected to.
that yields an expected point rate and ga rate for each group.

Cause no one is stupid enough to think.
1. you can score equally whether you start in offensive zone or D zone.
2. there is no difference betwen 1st line comp and 4th line comp.
3. there is no difference between 1st line teamates and 4th line teamates.

Shawn horcoff played
Less than 45% zone start Center;
Facing 1st comp
with 3rd line teamates.
this has been the most difficult situation in the league.
10 forwards face this each year.

The average since the lockout:
A forward is expected to get 1.1Pt/60 and have 2.87 EVGA/60
Last year horcoff
Was 1.04P/60
2.89GA/60
Slightly under expected average for situation.

no longer the 07-08 or 08-09 Horcoff who averaged
2.05P/60 and 2.51Ga/60


Last year horcoff got tough zone coverage so the likes of

RNH 62.5%zone start 2nd Comp 1st Teamates
Expected P/60 2.35 actual 1.97
Expected GA 2.55 Actual 2.73

Eberle 60.7% Zone Start 2nd Comp 1st Teamates
Expected p/60 2.35 Actual 3.08
Expected Ga 2.55 Actual 3.08

Hall 56.5% Zone Start 2nd Comp 2nd Teamates
Expected p/60 2.10 Actual 2.07
Expected Ga 2.55 Actual 2.87

could get the easy sledding.

proper coaching is slotting your roster in the 96 situations that best help you to win.

any how!

The centers who played in this role:
Bolland
Laich
Plekanec
Backlund
Couturier (my pick for the Selke and Calder)
Just a freak year.
Best defensive year in the last 10 years.

Role #3
PK
1/2 PK unit 2.5Min
A 6.15GA/60 Center

Equal numbers
Couturier
Talbot
Malhotra
Gordon

Slighty better
kopitar
Stoll
Gaustad
Belanger
Plekanec

So I think we have our answer.

Sean Couturier 1.37M EL
Thomas Plekanec 5.0M
will get you better Even & Pk results for horcoffs situation
but these two fail on the PP

A combination of
Gaustad 3.25M
Fisher 4.2M
come the closest to covering all three situations.

While I love the Buy out Horcoff Montra.

Any time someone says buyout horcoff.
it says
1. to lazy to look at replacement
or
2. complete lack of understanding of the game
-were you start
-who you face
-with who
-goals you get
-goals you give up.
or
3. in grade 1-7 and just want to fit in with the peers on HF Board.

Buy him out.

The majic hockey fairy will make us a center who can fill his role for 7.5M

Or we can trade for
Fisher
and
Gaustad.

which one of you wants Plastic surgery to look like C. Underwood.
Sorry, tldr. I only made it through your first point, which you seem to give credit to Horcoff for a strong powerplay. Apparently the number you used to bolster your point is a number given to all players on the pp unit, despite who did what, scored a goal, got an assist whatever. So basically you say "Horcoff has a good +/- on the pp" so he is a good offensive player or good member of the pp unit.

That's it. That's all youve got to show he has any worth at all as an offensive player, which, is probably because there isnt anything else, because he is a pathetic loser. Horcoff's justified because he whined enough so the coach would put him on the first unit pp, the third best in the entire league. No thanks to Horcoff of course.

Strange that Horcoff was on the team and on the pp during all those years that it was one of the worst in the league. Or maybe it isnt strange at all. Maybe Horcoff is just a 5.5mill plug?

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Old
01-09-2013, 04:52 PM
  #347
Hitchslap
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Arguing Horcoff is better on the PP than anyone is ridiculous. He's a turnover machine. Fortunately, with Eberle, Nuge, and Hall, he rarely touches the puck. You could put an Oilers jersey on a chimp and tie it to the front of the net and get the same results.

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Old
01-09-2013, 06:04 PM
  #348
Oil Gauge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarus View Post
You could have 2 Maholtra's for the cost of Horcoff, and Manny alone is more effective as a faceoff/defensive specialist, even with the eye injury.

The Oilers would be much better off with two 3 million dollar players or three 2 million dollar players, than Horcoff fumbling around on the 3rd or 4th lines soaking up minutes he isn't effective at. It may be wishful thinking with this management group, but there is always that bit of hope as a fan that if Horcoff wasn't around absorbing a huge chunk of cap every year, the team would be able to aquire some younger, lower priced, and more effective depth to improve the team towards actually winning games.
We all know Horcoff is overpaid. Its not going to change so why bring it up? His cap hit isn't hurting this team as it is today so its a non issue. Until the Oilers get close to the cap Horcoffs contract is pretty much irrelevant to his contributions to this team.

The Oilers have $7,266,667 in free cap space. What is stopping them from getting 2 $3mil or 3 $2mil players? Not horcoffs cap hit. I'm not arguing that Horcoff is the be all end all of 3rd line centers. I know there are probably better options out there, but in the mean time we are stuck with him and I think he can fill that 3rd line role just fine.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
What the hell is this ramble jamble?

I'll tell you what it is, its a false positive. Something you are stating as true but is completely false because there is absolutely no evidence to support any of it.

Let's break it down:



Facts:
-The Oilers have never had Horcoff play as a 3rd line minutes in the past 7 years
-Last time Horcoff played less than 1st line minutes(03-04) the team missed the playoffs.
-As a leader of the Oilers the team has won jack ****.



Facts:
-Can't find any facts here because I don't know the last time Horcoff actually played a 3rd line role.



Facts:
-Vancouver has won with various 3rd line centers
-None of those centers costed them 5.5million a season


Going back to your earlier comment of buying him out the next off-season, is that still going to be a possibility and be a free buyout and not have the cap hit spread out over twice the length of the remaining contract?

If the answer is no well then it's that simple they need to cut the dead weight and use the get out of jail free card when they can. Whether they have a realistic repalcement next off-season or not. You can't tell me it's impossible to find a serviceable 3rd line center replacement via the FA market or cheap via a trade.
How does Shawn Horcoffs Cap hit have anything to do with his ability to fill a 3rd line roll? The FACT is that it doesn't at all. He is the same hockey player whether he makes $5.5M or $3.5M.

I am only stating my opinion. I think that given a 3rd line roll Horcoff can be good enough for this team to win. I'm not saying they will win, I'm saying that given everyone else pulls their weight, Horcoff won't drag this team down in a 3rd line roll.

You argue that he has never played 3rd line minutes, which is true. But it doesn't really mean anything to the argument at hand. If anything it says that Horcoff has been in over his head for the last 4 years, ie after his shoulder surgery, and needs a diminished roll to be successful. Something that a 3rd line roll should do for him.

Yes the new CBA offers 2 compliance buyouts available to be used either this summer or next. That is what this thread is all about. They can buy him out in the summer of 2014 and not have to take any cap hit. And hey if they can get a good 3rd line center for next season then by all means buy out horcoff this summer. I would welcome that with open arms, but in the mean time I believe Horcoff will do just fine in a 3rd line roll.

I'm not sure you can really fault management for not doing this sooner because it was near impossible to get rid of Horcoff until compliance buyouts and cap/salary trading was available. They were pretty much stuck with him and up until last season he has been their best option for a #1 Center.

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Old
01-09-2013, 06:14 PM
  #349
misfit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
On the rare occasion he took to speak with the media after games or during a losing streak, it was there. One of the times I recall it was Dubnyk he threw under the bus, over the issue of a poor pk or something like that. It was pathetic.



Because around the time of the alleged complaining he was put back on the first unit pp, after briefly being taken off. It was pretty obvious who the "vet" was.
So in short: No, you can't provide any examples or proof of what you're claiming to be gospel.

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Old
01-09-2013, 06:22 PM
  #350
PavelDatsyuk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Give some justification for your Ideas!

Not meant to be mean.
I believe you are better than this.

Will Start With Role #1
PP:
Face off, Down low Front Net presence Center on a unit that gets 8.54 GF/60 while he is on the Ice.

Lets look at centers with his GF rate.
M. Fisher 9.50 GF/60 4.2M
P. Statstny 8.86 GF/60 6.6M
N. Backstrom 8.77 GF/60 6.7M
F. Nielson 8.70 GF/60 2.75M
P. Marleau 8.50Gf/60 6.9M
D. Backes 8.36 GF/60 4.5M
E. Malkin 8.16 GF/60 8.7M

Role #2
Even;

there are 96 basic even situations a player can be subjected to.
that yields an expected point rate and ga rate for each group.

Cause no one is stupid enough to think.
1. you can score equally whether you start in offensive zone or D zone.
2. there is no difference betwen 1st line comp and 4th line comp.
3. there is no difference between 1st line teamates and 4th line teamates.

Shawn horcoff played
Less than 45% zone start Center;
Facing 1st comp
with 3rd line teamates.
this has been the most difficult situation in the league.
10 forwards face this each year.

The average since the lockout:
A forward is expected to get 1.1Pt/60 and have 2.87 EVGA/60
Last year horcoff
Was 1.04P/60
2.89GA/60
Slightly under expected average for situation.

no longer the 07-08 or 08-09 Horcoff who averaged
2.05P/60 and 2.51Ga/60


Last year horcoff got tough zone coverage so the likes of

RNH 62.5%zone start 2nd Comp 1st Teamates
Expected P/60 2.35 actual 1.97
Expected GA 2.55 Actual 2.73

Eberle 60.7% Zone Start 2nd Comp 1st Teamates
Expected p/60 2.35 Actual 3.08
Expected Ga 2.55 Actual 3.08

Hall 56.5% Zone Start 2nd Comp 2nd Teamates
Expected p/60 2.10 Actual 2.07
Expected Ga 2.55 Actual 2.87

could get the easy sledding.

proper coaching is slotting your roster in the 96 situations that best help you to win.

any how!

The centers who played in this role:
Bolland
Laich
Plekanec
Backlund
Couturier (my pick for the Selke and Calder)
Just a freak year.
Best defensive year in the last 10 years.

Role #3
PK
1/2 PK unit 2.5Min
A 6.15GA/60 Center

Equal numbers
Couturier
Talbot
Malhotra
Gordon

Slighty better
kopitar
Stoll
Gaustad
Belanger
Plekanec

So I think we have our answer.

Sean Couturier 1.37M EL
Thomas Plekanec 5.0M
will get you better Even & Pk results for horcoffs situation
but these two fail on the PP

A combination of
Gaustad 3.25M
Fisher 4.2M
come the closest to covering all three situations.

While I love the Buy out Horcoff Montra.

Any time someone says buyout horcoff.
it says
1. to lazy to look at replacement
or
2. complete lack of understanding of the game
-were you start
-who you face
-with who
-goals you get
-goals you give up.
or
3. in grade 1-7 and just want to fit in with the peers on HF Board.

Buy him out.

The majic hockey fairy will make us a center who can fill his role for 7.5M

Or we can trade for
Fisher
and
Gaustad.

which one of you wants Plastic surgery to look like C. Underwood.
People would be shocked how bad the Oilers would be without Horcoff on this team. But the majority don't realize it and rag on him to no end.

Carolina 1-7 L
Detroit 2-6 L
NJD 3-4 SOL
Tampa 4-3 W
Vancouver 1-2 L
Toronto 1-4 L
Columbus 6-3 W
SJS 1-2 L
LA 2-3 SOL
Vancouver 2-3 L
Buffalo 2-4 L
Colorado 3-4 SOL
Calgary 1-2 L
Detroit 3-5 L
NYI 2-1 W
Vancouver 1-6 L
Dallas 2-3 L
SJS 5-2 W
LA 2-5 L
Anaheim 2-3 L
Minnesota 1-4 L
Ottawa 3-5 L
Anaheim 0-4 L
Phoenix 1-3 L
Colorado 2-3 SOL
Nashville 1-3 L
St. Louis 0-4 L
Calgary 4-5 L
LA 0-2 L
Minnesota 2-4 L
Vancouver 4-1 W
Vancouver 2-0 W
Calgary 1-6 L
Minnesota 1-3 L
Colorado 3-4 SOL

These are the results without Horcoff in the lineup for half the season. The Oilers finished 6-24-5 without him in the lineup, on pace for a total of ~39.8 points over an 82 game schedule. That's just abysmal. With him in the lineup 19-21-7, a 78.5 point pace. Obviously still not good, but almost twice as many points with Horcoff in the lineup vs without.

Last season, we had Horcoff for 81 games and we finished with 74 points. Everyone screams improvement but we simply had a key player remain healthy and a rather lucky PP%. I'm not sure there really was any improvement last season.

2 wins against Columbus and NYI and then 2 wins against Vancouver at the end when they clearly already mailed it in. This team had a tough time winning a single game over a ~40 game sample without Shawn Horcoff in the lineup.

People really are ignorant to what he brings to this team and what he allows the kids to do on the ice. Not just Horcoff but other players used in similar roles around the league. Most people just look at the points leaderboard and make up their minds based on that.

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