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01-05-2013, 08:58 PM
  #401
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Interestingly Detroit trades away more 1st round picks than anybody and they haven't gotten much out of their draft picks since 2004.

I know people default to "they develop their players the right way" but that isn't the whole story. They ARE great at development, but I don't think they are that good at drafting.
I agree.

Hitting on those 5th rounders etc. is pure luck. It's a gamble and even the GM admits it. If they knew guys like Datsyuk would turn into players like that they would have drafted them higher.

The fact they whiff on higher picks is much more telling as those are picks scouts really concentrate on.

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01-05-2013, 09:07 PM
  #402
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I agree.

Hitting on those 5th rounders etc. is pure luck. It's a gamble and even the GM admits it. If they knew guys like Datsyuk would turn into players like that they would have drafted them higher.

The fact they whiff on higher picks is much more telling as those are picks scouts really concenttrate on.
They have done okay in the 2nd round, but the core oof their team was drafted between 1998 and 2002. Since then Howard, Franzen and Helm are the only contributors.

EDIT

I believe the Wings have traded 10 of their last 16 first round picks.

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01-05-2013, 10:57 PM
  #403
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
They have done okay in the 2nd round, but the core oof their team was drafted between 1998 and 2002. Since then Howard, Franzen and Helm are the only contributors.

EDIT

I believe the Wings have traded 10 of their last 16 first round picks.
http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/2/8/...-draft-success


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01-05-2013, 11:51 PM
  #404
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
They had some very good drafts early in the Holland era, not much of late. It will be interesting to see how things play out with their current batch of prospects.

Flyers have done a great job of drafting players too, but they send them elsewhere and turn other teams into Champions.

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01-09-2013, 08:00 PM
  #405
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Hockey Prospectus: Top 50 NHL Draft Prospects, Midseason
http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...articleid=1419

I don't always agree with Corey, but I respect him.

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01-09-2013, 09:56 PM
  #406
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Hockey Prospectus: Top 50 NHL Draft Prospects, Midseason
http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...articleid=1419

I don't always agree with Corey, but I respect him.

We should get 4 of the 50 players on the Jets final draft list this year and 2 more in the top 75 . Good year to have so many draft picks , deep draft , this could / should be a draft that builds the future well.

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01-10-2013, 12:26 AM
  #407
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I think if we go "flashy forward" it will be Shinkaruk or Domi.

Neither fulfill the size requirement we're necessarily after, but I think their other intangibles give them an advantage. They both have high compete levels and for smaller players they play with intensity.

I often see people say Shinkaruk is a perimeter player, but I don't agree with that at all. He'll go in to battle without a problem, plus he wears a C, so the leadership intangible will definitely be considered by the Jets. His gaudy offensive numbers went down when Etem graduated, but he's still dynamic and his own game has still improved. His shot is already unreal. Plus his point production is still great regardless.

Domi is just a pittbull. The size just really doesn't get into the equation. In fact with his low center of gravity and tenacity, being small may help him in some areas other than reach. Has to improve in the defensive end though, but I believe with his work ethic and pedigree that shouldn't be a problem.

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01-10-2013, 12:41 AM
  #408
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
I think if we go "flashy forward" it will be Shinkaruk or Domi.

Neither fulfill the size requirement we're necessarily after, but I think their other intangibles give them an advantage. They both have high compete levels and for smaller players they play with intensity.

I often see people say Shinkaruk is a perimeter player, but I don't agree with that at all. He'll go in to battle without a problem, plus he wears a C, so the leadership intangible will definitely be considered by the Jets. His gaudy offensive numbers went down when Etem graduated, but he's still dynamic and his own game has still improved. His shot is already unreal. Plus his point production is still great regardless.

Domi is just a pittbull. The size just really doesn't get into the equation, in fact with his low center of gravity and tenacity being small may help him in some areas other than reach. Has to improve in the defensive end though, but I believe with his work ethic and pedigree that shouldn't be a problem.
Not a fan of Domi at all, TBH. Max Domi scares the hell out of me, he is a little guy with a big motor, but I don't see that as being enough to offset his size due to his lack of truly high end skill. I don't see him being a good pro. If you are picking a guy like early first, they must have truly elite level talent, so I don't see them projected to pros all that well...just my humble opinion though, I've known to be wrong.

Shinkaruk, IDK, I'd put him in the 10-14ish grouping with Lindholm and Lekhonen and a few others. Need some more viewings though.

I see guys like Marko Dano, Sven Andrighetto, Nick Sorenson, etc spread throughout the draft that we can nab in the 3rd-7th rounds as better picks in terms of average to small guys that have that kind of talent that won't cost us an early first.

If we are drafting in 8-14 range I'd rather take a chance on a Elias Lindholm or Artturi Lekonen if we are looking for the high end skill forward (neither a big guys either, but just have a better skill set for the pro game, IMO), or a Ryan Pulock or Rasmus Ristolainen as smooth skating puck moving defensemen. Can never have enough defensemen coming through the system, IMO.

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01-10-2013, 01:01 AM
  #409
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Not a fan of Domi at all, TBH. Max Domi scares the hell out of me, he is a little guy with a big motor, but I don't see that as being enough to offset his size due to his lack of truly high end skill. I don't see him being a good pro. If you are picking a guy like early first, they must have truly elite level talent, so I don't see them projected to pros all that well...just my humble opinion though, I've known to be wrong.

Shinkaruk, IDK, I'd put him in the 10-14ish grouping with Lindholm and Lekhonen and a few others. Need some more viewings though.

I see guys like Marko Dano, Sven Andrighetto, Nick Sorenson, etc spread throughout the draft that we can nab in the 3rd-7th rounds as better picks in terms of average to small guys that have that kind of talent that won't cost us an early first.

If we are drafting in 8-14 range I'd rather take a chance on a Elias Lindholm or Artturi Lekonen if we are looking for the high end skill forward (neither a big guys either, but just have a better skill set for the pro game, IMO), or a Ryan Pulock or Rasmus Ristolainen as smooth skating puck moving defensemen. Can never have enough defensemen coming through the system, IMO.
I was just throwing this guys as the "flashy forwards" I'd take. It was inspired by the previous post(s) made by truck. Lindholm is easily better than both, but he's more solid and steady rather than flashy. I'd also easily take Pulock or Ristolainen over them as well.

Lehkonen has great skills, but I'd take Shinkaruk and Domi over him easily. In fact Shinkaruk matches up with him skill wise in my opinion, but has better intangibles. Lehkonen beats him on skating though. What about Lehkonen do you think gives him a better pro game?

I also agree about Dano and Andrighetto. Again I was just highlighting "flashy forwards" for the 1st rounds that would still merit consideration by the Jets. Andrighetto would be a hard one to peg as a Jets pick because he literally lives on the perimeter.

I however believe Domi will make a great pro. I saw him a few times and thought he was sooo overrated because of his Dad. Then I watched a bit more and fell in love with the kid. He has a ton of skill, but it's his willpower that takes over sometimes so it can overshadow it. That's the exact reason I think he'll make a great pro. I don't see it totally overshadowing his high end skill however. What about his game did you find that he wasn't showing offensive skill? I understand the defensive questions, which are very valid. But offensively he's always looked good to me.


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01-10-2013, 01:18 AM
  #410
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
I was just throwing this guys as the "flashy forwards" I'd take. It was inspired by the previous post(s) made by truck. Lindholm is easily better than both, but he's more solid and steady rather than flashy. I'd also easily take Pulock or Ristolainen over them as well.
Agreed on everything there.

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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
Lehkonen has great skills, but I'd take Shinkaruk and Domi over him easily. In fact Shinkaruk matches up with him skill wise in my opinion, but has better intangibles. Lehkonen beats him on skating though. What about Lehkonen do you think gives him a better pro game?
Shinkaruk and Lekhonen are tight. Honestly it's still very early in the scouting year for me (I generally don't start watching prospects until after WJC). I have seen more from the Europeans this year since that's where my hockey interest has been drawn. I'd have both of them very close right now. My wording was poor, I can't say for sure who I'd have ahead.

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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
I also agree about Dano and Andrighetto. Again I was just highlighting "flashy forwards" for the 1st rounds that would still merit consideration by the Jets. Andrighetto would be a hard one to peg as a Jets pick because he literally lives on the perimeter.
Fair enough. Agreed on Andrighetto, honestly at best some team will take a complete flyer on him in the 7th, just a name that popped into my head.

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I however believe Domi will make a great pro. I saw him a few times and thought he was sooo overrated because of his Dad. Then I watched a bit more and fell in love with the kid. He has a ton of skill, but it's his willpower that takes over sometimes so it can overshadow it. That's the exact reason I think he'll make a great pro. I don't see it totally overshadowing his high end skill however. What about his game did you find that he wasn't showing offensive skill? I understand the defensive questions, which are very valid. But offensively he's always looked good to me.
Never really saw a wow factor with Domi. Has solid skills amongst junior players, but nothing spectacular, IMO. It's just easier to "impose your willpower" on smaller junior players, and that size he will not be able to do that at the next level. Take a Timmy Stapleton who had great drive, worked his ass off every shift, but simply could not be all that effective at that size. Not saying that's who he reminds me off, just an example. I am very very terrified of small players that are "bulls" or "imposing their will" or "overpowering" since they quite simply have tons of trouble doing that at the next level. Call it the Gilbert Brule fear if you will (I was a huge fan of him and got burned hard on it). 99% of small guys that make the NHL do it with pure skill (St. Louis, Ennis, Gionta, etc), there are so very very few Theo Fleury's. Again though I have not seen very much of Domi, I have been mostly focused on Europe this year so far, so that might change.

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01-10-2013, 01:35 AM
  #411
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Not a fan of Domi at all, TBH. Max Domi scares the hell out of me, he is a little guy with a big motor, but I don't see that as being enough to offset his size due to his lack of truly high end skill.

I agree I cant see max domi being a chevy type of guy

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01-10-2013, 01:50 AM
  #412
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Lindholm is one of the top 7 big prospects that are making people rave about this draft.

MacKinnon, Jones, barkov, Drouin, Monahan, Lindholm and Shinkaruk are what give this draft its depth. Those guys are all on par with Glachenyuk who went third last year. There's like 7 "top 3" guys this years. Really top heavy draft.

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01-10-2013, 02:08 AM
  #413
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Lindholm is one of the top 7 big prospects that are making people rave about this draft.

MacKinnon, Jones, barkov, Drouin, Monahan, Lindholm and Shinkaruk are what give this draft its depth. Those guys are all on par with Glachenyuk who went third last year. There's like 7 "top 3" guys this years. Really top heavy draft.
Hopefully, we will be picking 15th at best.

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01-10-2013, 02:12 AM
  #414
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If we draft between 6-15th, I hope we can come away with one of Monahan, Shinkaruk or Nurse.

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01-10-2013, 09:35 AM
  #415
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If we draft between 6-15th, I hope we can come away with one of Monahan, Shinkaruk or Nurse.
Big plus with Monahan is that he looks like he could be NHL ready pretty soon.

Obviously you want the best prospect available, but if it is a toss up I like the guy that can contribute right away. He definitely seems to fit the mold of what TNSE wants too.

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01-10-2013, 10:18 AM
  #416
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Hopefully, we will be picking 15th at best.
As much as I like to look at the top 6 or so in this draft, I hope you are right.

Talking about 10-20 is tough because you just never know who might be there, but it would be great to hear some thoughts on people's favorites in that range.

I'm guessing guys like Nurse, Pulock, RR, Morrissey, Erne, Mantha, Gauthier?

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01-10-2013, 11:02 AM
  #417
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As much as I like to look at the top 6 or so in this draft, I hope you are right.

Talking about 10-20 is tough because you just never know who might be there, but it would be great to hear some thoughts on people's favorites in that range.

I'm guessing guys like Nurse, Pulock, RR, Morrissey, Erne, Mantha, Gauthier?
Personally i hope we pick in the 15+ range for two reasons.

1) It means we made the playoffs!

2) The expectation of players in this range (particularly 15-20) is far more in line with their realistic development and production then those in the 6-15 range.

that being said, this is one of the years where i think the biggest drop in talent will come at a later point (as opposed to pick 3 and 6 being the historic drops with it leveling out after wards, i think it will be more like pick 5 and 12)

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01-10-2013, 11:54 AM
  #418
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If you want to know who I think is the most overrated prospect this year look no further than Josh Morrissey.

All my own opinion of course I find he plays waaaay too much 4th forward (if you think Byfuglien is bad, just watch this kid). He has great skating, so he's built an offensive game out of it, but I don't think it will translate at all to the next level. Frankly I don't think his other tools are good enough to overcompensate for his style of play. He takes a lot of chances and doesn't bury nearly enough of them or create enough plays from them. His skating so far mitigates the downside of his style as he can catch back up to a play, but I think he'll get absolutely burned at the next level. Fast players are everywhere in the NHL and Morrissey will get burned.

I see him as a worse version of Ryan Murphy. Murphy has a better feel for the offensive zone. I also see the same downside; when asked to reel in his game to be more defensive Morrissey will falter, he doesn't make nearly enough plays sitting in position. He needs space and movement to make plays and I think that won't translate.

Quote:
Never really saw a wow factor with Domi. Has solid skills amongst junior players, but nothing spectacular, IMO. It's just easier to "impose your willpower" on smaller junior players, and that size he will not be able to do that at the next level. Take a Timmy Stapleton who had great drive, worked his ass off every shift, but simply could not be all that effective at that size. Not saying that's who he reminds me off, just an example. I am very very terrified of small players that are "bulls" or "imposing their will" or "overpowering" since they quite simply have tons of trouble doing that at the next level. Call it the Gilbert Brule fear if you will (I was a huge fan of him and got burned hard on it). 99% of small guys that make the NHL do it with pure skill (St. Louis, Ennis, Gionta, etc), there are so very very few Theo Fleury's. Again though I have not seen very much of Domi, I have been mostly focused on Europe this year so far, so that might change.
Yeah, I'm just surprised you say that as I find he has very elite offensive skills and a lot of "wow factor". His pure offensive skills are very, very good. Defensive game is pretty bad, but I think that will improve.

I think his tenacity pushes him over the top of other small skilled players. Just surprised you'd list overragers like Andrighetto or Dano who are older, don't have the same grit and are on the same level of offensive skill (I think Andrighetto is worse offensively and Dano would be equal). Or list a guy like Sorenson whose offensive skills aren't anywhere as good as Domi's. That being said you listed them as lower round guys, but I think you're severely underrating Domi's pure offensive talents. Even without his grit he is amazing with the puck.


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01-10-2013, 12:29 PM
  #419
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Yeah, I'm just surprised you say that as I find he has very elite offensive skills and a lot of "wow factor". His pure offensive skills are very, very good. Defensive game is pretty bad, but I think that will improve.

I think his tenacity pushes him over the top of other small skilled players. Just surprised you'd list overragers like Andrighetto or Dano who are older, don't have the same grit and are on the same level of offensive skill (I think Andrighetto is worse offensively and Dano would be equal). Or list a guy like Sorenson whose offensive skills aren't anywhere as good as Domi's. That being said you listed them as lower round guys, but I think you're severely underrating Domi's pure offensive talents. Even without his grit he is amazing with the puck.
Dano is not an overager, just a late birthday. And yeah I was talking a flyer with a later pick, obviously Domi is much higher end than those guys, but it'll cost a much higher pick.

But TBH, I'm not gonna talk Domi anymore since I have not seen enough of him for a truly comprehensive opinion. I'll keep my eye out for him for a while here.

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01-10-2013, 12:35 PM
  #420
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Dano is not an overager, just a late birthday. And yeah I was talking a flyer with a later pick, obviously Domi is much higher end than those guys, but it'll cost a much higher pick.

But TBH, I'm not gonna talk Domi anymore since I have not seen enough of him for a truly comprehensive opinion. I'll keep my eye out for him for a while here.
Cool, I hope to hear your later analysis.

As for Dano, I always thought he was passed over last year and I've been doing all my analysis based on that. That changes quite a bit about my viewings. He had a hell of a WJC and has looked good outside of it as well.

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01-10-2013, 12:38 PM
  #421
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So if we pick between 10-15(which doesnt seem to ounlikely) who do you figure we take? I see Erne around there on a lot of lists. He's physical and has nice touch around the net. Seems like a second liner for sure.


Thoughts?

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01-10-2013, 12:47 PM
  #422
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So if we pick between 10-15(which doesnt seem to ounlikely) who do you figure we take? I see Erne around there on a lot of lists. He's physical and has nice touch around the net. Seems like a second liner for sure.


Thoughts?
Honestly, there's a lot of solid options this year. Erne is most definitely a great option.

But just like every other year, things aren't going to fall into place the way we think they will. Guys will get taken much earlier than we expect and some players will inexplicably drop.

10-15 is a very hard area to predict. Especially this year, the top 5 is nearly impossible to predict.

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01-10-2013, 01:00 PM
  #423
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Yeah, I'm just surprised you say that as I find he has very elite offensive skills and a lot of "wow factor". His pure offensive skills are very, very good. Defensive game is pretty bad, but I think that will improve.

I think his tenacity pushes him over the top of other small skilled players. Just surprised you'd list overragers like Andrighetto or Dano who are older, don't have the same grit and are on the same level of offensive skill (I think Andrighetto is worse offensively and Dano would be equal). Or list a guy like Sorenson whose offensive skills aren't anywhere as good as Domi's. That being said you listed them as lower round guys, but I think you're severely underrating Domi's pure offensive talents. Even without his grit he is amazing with the puck.
I agree with all of this to a T. The only thing I'd add is that, dependent upon what spot # the Jets are drafting in the first round, it wouldn't at all surprise me to see them take a flyer on him unless they've a top 5 pick. Zinger and Tie are quite literally the best of friends and the Jets are seemingly in favour of including bloodlines into the decision process when possible.

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01-10-2013, 01:06 PM
  #424
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I agree with all of this to a T. The only thing I'd add is that, dependent upon what spot # the Jets are drafting in the first round, it wouldn't at all surprise me to see them take a flyer on him unless they've a top 5 pick. Zinger and Tie are quite literally the best of friends and the Jets are seemingly in favour of including bloodlines into the decision process when possible.
That's the only thing I'm slightly afraid of. Regardless of Domi's ability people will jump on the fact we drafted him because of his father. And heck, maybe we do, we already grabbed a Lowry and a Sutter.

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01-10-2013, 01:24 PM
  #425
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Shinkaruk>Domi>Monahan imo.
Hunter would be my ideal choice if we're picking around 10 and hes still there. If we pick around 15, Mantha or Pulock would be nice .

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