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What would be the "dead sea scrolls" of hockey data?

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01-08-2013, 06:51 AM
  #1
ot92s
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What would be the "dead sea scrolls" of hockey data?

I'm thinking historical individual player ice time data.

without it all the number crunching seems kinda lacking to me.

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01-08-2013, 08:39 AM
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That would be pretty nice. I can imagine some early guys took very long shifts due to the lack of offsides.

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01-08-2013, 10:48 AM
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ot92s
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also gretz was around 30min per game when he was putting up the 200 point seasons. that's around 8min over the leaders in today's nhl. Figure around an 80 game season that's an extra 640 minutes on the ice. With every 30 minutes equaling a game for him that like an extra 21 games a year.

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01-08-2013, 10:51 AM
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I don't appreciate the pejorative in your thread title, and I've removed it.

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01-08-2013, 12:59 PM
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nik jr
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GF and GA, including PP and PK would be really great to have.


i think reckoning once said that TML used to record TOI and that the numbers were sometimes published in the globe and mail.

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01-08-2013, 03:03 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
also gretz was around 30min per game when he was putting up the 200 point seasons. that's around 8min over the leaders in today's nhl. Figure around an 80 game season that's an extra 640 minutes on the ice. With every 30 minutes equaling a game for him that like an extra 21 games a year.
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.

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01-08-2013, 03:42 PM
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ot92s
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.
tell me more about these estimates.

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01-08-2013, 08:29 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
tell me more about these estimates.
as long as you have both goals on-ice-for and on-ice-against, you can estimate ice time and poster like Iain Fyffe and overpass have done so. One of them could probably tell you more details.

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01-09-2013, 04:52 AM
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paging ianfyfe....whats the method?

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01-10-2013, 08:10 PM
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TheJudge
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I'm sure there's a more accurate way to do estimates... Been a long day and my brain power is sapped, so I'm not going to attempt to get more advanced for now.

However you could, as a starting point, compare a players GF/GA to his teams GF/GA using the teams total TOI (GF/GA per minute)

------

EX: (chosen because he came up first when I went to check plus/minus stats)

Patrice Bergeron on ice for 90GF 51GA
He played 81 games

Boston 260 GF 199 GA
Boston on ice 5002 minutes in 2011/2012

Therefore every GF is worth 19.238 minutes of playing time
every GA is worth 25.136 minutes of playing time

Using this simplistic method, and averaging the GF estimate and the GA estimate, Bergeron can be estimated to have played 18 minutes and 36 seconds per game.

In reality, he played 18 minutes and 34 seconds per game.

Undoubtedly it was lucky that the estimated and actual were this close in this example.

------

EX #2: Chara (because hes on the same team, and this way I don't need to look up new team stats )

115 GF 85 GA in 79GP

Comes out to an estimated TOI of 27 minutes 32 seconds per game.

He actually played 25 minutes and 0 seconds per game.

This one was further off, but still semi-reasonable for a rudimentary estimate.

------

Keep in mind that this simple formula does not take into account the higher rates of GF/GA on the PP/PK - and probably several other factors that I am not considering. Part of the reason for the discrepancy in Chara's numbers could be related to the higher PK/PP time he had last year.

Seems to be somewhat accurate in the two example I tried though.


Last edited by TheJudge: 01-10-2013 at 09:25 PM.
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01-10-2013, 11:04 PM
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the naked photos of Marc Crawford that Dan Cloutier seems to own

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01-11-2013, 01:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
paging ianfyfe....whats the method?
It usually helps if you spell at least one of my names right, if not both.

TheJudge has the basics of such a system. It's based on the goals (for and against, in various situations) the player is on the ice for. You can refine it some, but that's the basis.

I've got Mario at around 30 minutes per game in 1988/89, due largely to insane amounts of PP time, and a big amount of SH time as well. Gretzky's teams were never that reliant on a single player.

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01-11-2013, 01:15 AM
  #13
Iain Fyffe
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To answer the OP, I'd add goaltender save percentages to individual ice time. We have some smatterings of them from way back, but nothing consistent.

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01-11-2013, 06:33 AM
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Canadiens1958
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Internal Individual Team Stats

The "Dead Sea Scrolls" of hockey data would be access to the internal individual team stats that each team generates. These are based on game plans going in and strategic objectives.

Would change how hockey metrics are viewed.

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01-11-2013, 11:17 AM
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The way a correct way to analyze a player is by is by focusing on the opposition coaching staff and looking at which players they fear most.Bowman and Sather had different coaching philosophy.One prefered a 4 to 2 game and the other a 6 to 4 game.

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01-11-2013, 01:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJudge View Post
I'm sure there's a more accurate way to do estimates... Been a long day and my brain power is sapped, so I'm not going to attempt to get more advanced for now.

However you could, as a starting point, compare a players GF/GA to his teams GF/GA using the teams total TOI (GF/GA per minute)

------

EX: (chosen because he came up first when I went to check plus/minus stats)

Patrice Bergeron on ice for 90GF 51GA
He played 81 games

Boston 260 GF 199 GA
Boston on ice 5002 minutes in 2011/2012

Therefore every GF is worth 19.238 minutes of playing time
every GA is worth 25.136 minutes of playing time

Using this simplistic method, and averaging the GF estimate and the GA estimate, Bergeron can be estimated to have played 18 minutes and 36 seconds per game.

In reality, he played 18 minutes and 34 seconds per game.

Undoubtedly it was lucky that the estimated and actual were this close in this example.

------

EX #2: Chara (because hes on the same team, and this way I don't need to look up new team stats )

115 GF 85 GA in 79GP

Comes out to an estimated TOI of 27 minutes 32 seconds per game.

He actually played 25 minutes and 0 seconds per game.

This one was further off, but still semi-reasonable for a rudimentary estimate.

------

Keep in mind that this simple formula does not take into account the higher rates of GF/GA on the PP/PK - and probably several other factors that I am not considering. Part of the reason for the discrepancy in Chara's numbers could be related to the higher PK/PP time he had last year.

Seems to be somewhat accurate in the two example I tried though.
Well said! As Iain said, you have the basics correct.

I didn't know you were this interested in this stuff. Good to see.

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01-11-2013, 04:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
tell me more about these estimates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
as long as you have both goals on-ice-for and on-ice-against, you can estimate ice time and poster like Iain Fyffe and overpass have done so. One of them could probably tell you more details.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
paging ianfyfe....whats the method?
Crazily enough the icetime estimate spreadsheet relied upon by some of the people here and on the history forum has no background information.

If I recall we finally found the person who published the sheet (based on Iain's old publication) and he said that he was working on a much improved version of it and didn't want to release the old stuff.

So....

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01-12-2013, 06:58 AM
  #18
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I'd be very surprised if there is any legitimate statistical significance to this method of determining ice time.

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01-12-2013, 09:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
The "Dead Sea Scrolls" of hockey data would be access to the internal individual team stats that each team generates. These are based on game plans going in and strategic objectives.

Would change how hockey metrics are viewed.
Do you mean like what Bylsma and Shero discuss in one episode of 24/7? Sort of ratings of each player for every game. That might be too subjective though.

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01-12-2013, 09:31 AM
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the naked photos of Marc Crawford that Dan Cloutier seems to own
Where is the re-tweet button?

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01-12-2013, 09:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
The "Dead Sea Scrolls" of hockey data would be access to the internal individual team stats that each team generates. These are based on game plans going in and strategic objectives.

Would change how hockey metrics are viewed.
I don't know whether teams or coaches keep that stuff or not. If they do it would be great if they made it available to the public. Of course not the data used for the latest season, probably not even the last few seasons. But would it hurt them to publish the relevant data that they used in the 1950s, 60s, 70s?

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01-12-2013, 11:46 AM
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TheJudge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
I'd be very surprised if there is any legitimate statistical significance to this method of determining ice time.
Try it yourself.

Grab a handful of players, crunch their numbers, and compare your estimate to their actual ice time.

You'll find that you are consistently fairly close.

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01-12-2013, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ot92s View Post
also gretz was around 30min per game when he was putting up the 200 point seasons. that's around 8min over the leaders in today's nhl. Figure around an 80 game season that's an extra 640 minutes on the ice. With every 30 minutes equaling a game for him that like an extra 21 games a year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Based on the estimates we have, he was nowhere near 30 minutes in an average game.
he was on 18 to 24 minutes a game-- he just looked like he was on the ice all the time

the oilers rolled on 30 to 45 second shifts for forwards and 60 second shifts for D--most of the time. When games were a blow out, Gretz and the boys wouldm see a reduction in the minutes with the third and fourth line getting more. If they let a goal in then the top two lines would play..


for me the dead sea scrolls would be the scouting reports from the NHl teams from 75 to about 95 --for all nhl teams. Just to get an idea of why some teams did so well, while others sucked

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01-12-2013, 12:12 PM
  #24
Canadiens1958
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The Data Is Kept

Quote:
Originally Posted by Theokritos View Post
I don't know whether teams or coaches keep that stuff or not. If they do it would be great if they made it available to the public. Of course not the data used for the latest season, probably not even the last few seasons. But would it hurt them to publish the relevant data that they used in the 1950s, 60s, 70s?
The +/- was kept for years before Ron Andrews convinced the NHL teams to release it. The Leafs in the mid fifties tracked TOI for both teams at MLG. Dick Irvin Jr tracked stats for his father with the Canadiens.

It's not the actual data from the eras listed but the approach, template and methodologies that can be extrapolated and analyzed to the present.

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01-12-2013, 07:34 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Crazily enough the icetime estimate spreadsheet relied upon by some of the people here and on the history forum has no background information.

If I recall we finally found the person who published the sheet (based on Iain's old publication) and he said that he was working on a much improved version of it and didn't want to release the old stuff.

So....
The old estimates are far from perfect, but they ballpark it enough to where we can safely say Gretzky wasn't playing 30 minutes per game.

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