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Old
01-11-2013, 12:29 AM
  #126
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Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
We could end up with Seth Jones
He's not that bad.

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01-11-2013, 06:37 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Cheesesteak Invictus View Post
My girlfriend has control of the TV so I decided to average the stats of the 32 backups who had meaningful starts. Because that beats the hell out of Private Practice and Greys Anatomy.

Average for NHL backups: 2.69 GAA, .909%

Michael Leighton is worse than that average. Let's also not forget that Leighton's stats are boosted by having a large chunk of his games (Over 20%) played behind a defense which sheltered him very effectively; something he won't get here anymore.

Looking at save percentage, the most relevant stat for goaltender performance, 24 out of 32 backup goalies outperformed Leighton last year. The goalies he beat were in mostly in the .800s, with 2 at a .900. He's in the bottom quarter of the league for backup goalies. He has spent most of his career in the AHL, or NHL call-up for a few games at a time. The case isn't all that good for him being considered a good backup, or even a decent one. He falls below the average. Most backups are better than him. 19 backups put up .910 or better, which is a sizable improvement over Leighton's career average.

He's an AHL player who occasionally gets called up. Except in Philly, where our GM mysteriously believes he's worthwhile.
So what are we arguing about? I have said from the beginning that Leighton's career line of 2.95 and .902 are in the same ballpark as many of the backups around the league and that those are backup goalie numbers. You have just proven my point. 2.95 and .902 is in the same ballpark as 2.69 and .909, no? And he was better than eight other goalies, and I wager that some that did outperform him was not by much. I never said the guy was the ultimate backup. I never said with his stats he should be a starter. From the get-go I said he was a backup goalie with backup goalie numbers. Which he is.

I am sure you are going to come back and say that those numbers are not in the same ballpark and even though he was better than others and close to others that were better than him he still is not a backup goalie with backup numbers, so I guess you win.

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01-11-2013, 07:14 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
So what are we arguing about? I have said from the beginning that Leighton's career line of 2.95 and .902 are in the same ballpark as many of the backups around the league and that those are backup goalie numbers. You have just proven my point. 2.95 and .902 is in the same ballpark as 2.69 and .909, no? And he was better than eight other goalies, and I wager that some that did outperform him was not by much. I never said the guy was the ultimate backup. I never said with his stats he should be a starter. From the get-go I said he was a backup goalie with backup goalie numbers. Which he is.

I am sure you are going to come back and say that those numbers are not in the same ballpark and even though he was better than others and close to others that were better than him he still is not a backup goalie with backup numbers, so I guess you win.
All you need to do is calculate out the Standard Deviation. As long as it is within 1 or 2 it is fine. If it is 3+ than no, he would be considered a well below average back-up goalie and likely would mean we need an upgrade.

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01-11-2013, 07:52 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by ToTheNet View Post
All you need to do is calculate out the Standard Deviation. As long as it is within 1 or 2 it is fine. If it is 3+ than no, he would be considered a well below average back-up goalie and likely would mean we need an upgrade.
That is way over my head. I wouldn't even know where to start. If that really is a way of settling this argument, I am all for. If someone else knows how to do this then let's do it to settle this once and for all so we don't have to have this conversation after/before every Michael Leighton start. We could just link to this post to show that he is not historically a backup goalie or that he is.

Also, this is NOT sarcastic.

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Old
01-11-2013, 08:23 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
That is way over my head. I wouldn't even know where to start. If that really is a way of settling this argument, I am all for. If someone else knows how to do this then let's do it to settle this once and for all so we don't have to have this conversation after/before every Michael Leighton start. We could just link to this post to show that he is not historically a backup goalie or that he is.

Also, this is NOT sarcastic.
for this example say we want to find the standard deviation for backup NHL goalie save percentage. the standard deviation is the sum of the differences between the average sv percentage and the individual NHL back sv percentages, squared. then you divide this resulting sum by the number of back up goaltenders taken into consideration minus 1. then you take the square root of this number. so the formula for standard deviation is:

sqrt((Σ(avg-ind)^2)/n-1)

where n is the number of backup goaltenders. and it's crutial that you are summing the difference between the league average sv percentage and EACH individual's sv percentage, squared.

so when calculating the numerator, Σ(avg-ind)^2, it would look something like this: (avg sv % - backup 1 sv %)^2 + (avg sv % - backup 2 sv %)^2 + (avg sv % - backup 3 sv %)^2 + .....and so on.

then you could repeat this process for GAA. the resulting numbers should be fairly small and if Leightons numbers fall within plus or minus 1 or even 2 standard deviations of the average he could then be considered an NHL caliber backup if you're into this sort of stuff.

i don't have a list of all the numbers and i'm too lazy to compile them. if you couldn't follow my explanation and you still want to get this done i guess i could do the math if provided the numbers.

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01-11-2013, 08:47 AM
  #131
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do i think Leights kinda blew the 2010 CUP ? yes
is he OK as our backup ? yes

i just hope Bryz shuts everybody up this year.
I hope Bryz fails and fails bad. I would love for him to have a worse year then last (if thats possible) so PH will have no other choice but to buy this clown out. I then hope he goes to the KHL and fails there to then decides to go to astronaut school and flunks out of that. I cannot wait for the day he is no longer a Flyer, hopefully it will be this summer if not next summer. The guy has an elite goaltender contract and I think its safe to say he is not elite.

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01-11-2013, 09:01 AM
  #132
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Last year Byrz ranked 21st in GAA and 33rd in SV%. So that what gets you a 9 year contract at 5.6 per.

Maybe we could try and pry Mike Smith from Phoenix with a 7 year contract near the max because he is a top 10 goalie easily, just look at his stats

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01-11-2013, 09:13 AM
  #133
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Buying him out would ruin the flyers chances for the next 10years or so.
So I guess you're no flyerfan.

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Old
01-11-2013, 09:34 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by spudnick View Post
Last year Byrz ranked 21st in GAA and 33rd in SV%. So that what gets you a 9 year contract at 5.6 per.

Maybe we could try and pry Mike Smith from Phoenix with a 7 year contract near the max because he is a top 10 goalie easily, just look at his stats
mike smith is a good goalie and if he continues on like this for another season or 2 he will get a big contract. but phoenix does NOT turn crap into gold because of a system. I never saw tellqvuist or labarbara skyrocket to success. There's things that factor in for a goalie that don't for say, a winger. Goalies need to have that comfort with their defensemen, the predictability of what those guys in front are gonna do and we had a turbulent first few months because of injuries on top of adjusting to the city, and a lot more pressure then ever before. This year will be different.

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Old
01-11-2013, 09:54 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
for this example say we want to find the standard deviation for backup NHL goalie save percentage. the standard deviation is the sum of the differences between the average sv percentage and the individual NHL back sv percentages, squared. then you divide this resulting sum by the number of back up goaltenders taken into consideration minus 1. then you take the square root of this number. so the formula for standard deviation is:

sqrt((Σ(avg-ind)^2)/n-1)

where n is the number of backup goaltenders. and it's crutial that you are summing the difference between the league average sv percentage and EACH individual's sv percentage, squared.

so when calculating the numerator, Σ(avg-ind)^2, it would look something like this: (avg sv % - backup 1 sv %)^2 + (avg sv % - backup 2 sv %)^2 + (avg sv % - backup 3 sv %)^2 + .....and so on.

then you could repeat this process for GAA. the resulting numbers should be fairly small and if Leightons numbers fall within plus or minus 1 or even 2 standard deviations of the average he could then be considered an NHL caliber backup if you're into this sort of stuff.

i don't have a list of all the numbers and i'm too lazy to compile them. if you couldn't follow my explanation and you still want to get this done i guess i could do the math if provided the numbers.
ORRRR........


.....



.....



You can open excel and type =STDEV('cell 1':'cell 2') with cell 1 being, obviously, the first cell in which you have a stat and cell 2, obviously, being the last.

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Old
01-11-2013, 10:05 AM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spudnick View Post
I hope Bryz fails and fails bad.
are you a Flyers fan ?


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
From the get-go I said he was a backup goalie with backup goalie numbers. Which he is.
and that's exactly why he's the Flyers backup. clear cut #1 / #2. If Bryz gets hurt for a long stretch, i think they'd make a move.

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Old
01-11-2013, 10:29 AM
  #137
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
ORRRR........


.....



.....



You can open excel and type =STDEV('cell 1':'cell 2') with cell 1 being, obviously, the first cell in which you have a stat and cell 2, obviously, being the last.
Seriously? I can't tell you how many spreadsheets I had to make for my physics labs where I was calculating standard deviation and I never figured that out

Still not clear though. What stat would be in cell 1 and which in cell 2. I don't see how that formula could take into consideration the avg stat, the individuals stat as well as the number of individuals which are all necessary for calculating sd.

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01-11-2013, 10:41 AM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
So what are we arguing about? I have said from the beginning that Leighton's career line of 2.95 and .902 are in the same ballpark as many of the backups around the league and that those are backup goalie numbers. You have just proven my point. 2.95 and .902 is in the same ballpark as 2.69 and .909, no? And he was better than eight other goalies, and I wager that some that did outperform him was not by much. I never said the guy was the ultimate backup. I never said with his stats he should be a starter. From the get-go I said he was a backup goalie with backup goalie numbers. Which he is.

I am sure you are going to come back and say that those numbers are not in the same ballpark and even though he was better than others and close to others that were better than him he still is not a backup goalie with backup numbers, so I guess you win.
Actually, there's a group of bottom feeders hovering near .900 clearly separated from the rest who are at .910 or above. There's a drop off, and Leighton is in the wrong group. Pair that with his usual GP and it s shows he shouldn't be considered a viable backup. He's a career minor league player fit only for emergency duty.

You want your backup goalie to produce .910 or above. Leighton falls below that.

Edit: only three of the goalies who outperformed Leighton's career numbers (stats you know I personally have an asterisk next to) barely outperformed him. Two guys with .903, one with .904. Then there's a leap to .909, the average, and 19 are above .910. If your backup doesn't get .910 it's safe to consider he's done a pretty bad job.

Edit: And only once in the current era does he get .910 or above. In his other stint as backup in Carolina he falls below. He meets it in Chicago before the rules change but I don't know what the backup average was, and it was 10 years ago anyways.

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Old
01-11-2013, 11:18 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
Seriously? I can't tell you how many spreadsheets I had to make for my physics labs where I was calculating standard deviation and I never figured that out

Still not clear though. What stat would be in cell 1 and which in cell 2. I don't see how that formula could take into consideration the avg stat, the individuals stat as well as the number of individuals which are all necessary for calculating sd.
Just like when you use the SUM function, x:y means it sums every cell from x to y (it can even do matrices if, for example, you do a1 to b3 - it will sum a1-a3 and b1-b3). All of the math is built into the function already by Microsoft, so if, for example, you had 30 backup goalie numbers in cells A1-A30 you would type =STDEV(A1:A30) to calculate it. Likewise, if the numbers were in cells A1-A15 and B1-B15 then you would type =STDEV(A1:B15).

Btw, you can also define your own functions within excel (and MATLAB, C and pretty much every coding language other than hardware ones) into libraries if you truly don't believe the originators did it right (they did, though, just as a fyi) and re-use them later much the same way as the pre-defined ones in the software package.

If you do alot of Math, Science or Engineering I highly encourage you to learn Excel... it is a very underrated program. I used to do so much more in MATLAB until I learned Excel better and realized it was considerably easier and quicker for the simpler tasks.

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Old
01-11-2013, 11:35 AM
  #140
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Originally Posted by spudnick View Post
I hope Bryz fails and fails bad. I would love for him to have a worse year then last (if thats possible) so PH will have no other choice but to buy this clown out. I then hope he goes to the KHL and fails there to then decides to go to astronaut school and flunks out of that. I cannot wait for the day he is no longer a Flyer, hopefully it will be this summer if not next summer. The guy has an elite goaltender contract and I think its safe to say he is not elite.
I may not be a big Bryz fan, but wtf? Why would you hope he fails?


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01-11-2013, 12:13 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Just like when you use the SUM function, x:y means it sums every cell from x to y (it can even do matrices if, for example, you do a1 to b3 - it will sum a1-a3 and b1-b3). All of the math is built into the function already by Microsoft, so if, for example, you had 30 backup goalie numbers in cells A1-A30 you would type =STDEV(A1:A30) to calculate it. Likewise, if the numbers were in cells A1-A15 and B1-B15 then you would type =STDEV(A1:B15).

Btw, you can also define your own functions within excel (and MATLAB, C and pretty much every coding language other than hardware ones) into libraries if you truly don't believe the originators did it right (they did, though, just as a fyi) and re-use them later much the same way as the pre-defined ones in the software package.

If you do alot of Math, Science or Engineering I highly encourage you to learn Excel... it is a very underrated program. I used to do so much more in MATLAB until I learned Excel better and realized it was considerably easier and quicker for the simpler tasks.
thanks for the lesson

seriously i wish i know about this stuff sooner, i'm gonna be graduating with a BS in Biology and a minor in Cognitive Neuroscience after this up coming semester. i know the very basics of Excel (simple functions and making graphs ect.) but this would have saved me a lot of time over the past five years especially during my physics and genetics labs/lab reports.

i'm laughing but i want to cry on the inside.

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01-11-2013, 12:37 PM
  #142
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#Flyers Leighton on Bryz "In March, he had one of the best goals-against ... so he showed he can be 1 of the best goalies in the league."

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01-11-2013, 01:14 PM
  #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
for this example say we want to find the standard deviation for backup NHL goalie save percentage. the standard deviation is the sum of the differences between the average sv percentage and the individual NHL back sv percentages, squared. then you divide this resulting sum by the number of back up goaltenders taken into consideration minus 1. then you take the square root of this number. so the formula for standard deviation is:

sqrt((Σ(avg-ind)^2)/n-1)

where n is the number of backup goaltenders. and it's crutial that you are summing the difference between the league average sv percentage and EACH individual's sv percentage, squared.

so when calculating the numerator, Σ(avg-ind)^2, it would look something like this: (avg sv % - backup 1 sv %)^2 + (avg sv % - backup 2 sv %)^2 + (avg sv % - backup 3 sv %)^2 + .....and so on.

then you could repeat this process for GAA. the resulting numbers should be fairly small and if Leightons numbers fall within plus or minus 1 or even 2 standard deviations of the average he could then be considered an NHL caliber backup if you're into this sort of stuff.

i don't have a list of all the numbers and i'm too lazy to compile them. if you couldn't follow my explanation and you still want to get this done i guess i could do the math if provided the numbers.
I'm gonna be honest with you, math is not my strong suit. Not even going to try to do that. I'll look into getting that list to you though. Haha.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesesteak Invictus View Post
Actually, there's a group of bottom feeders hovering near .900 clearly separated from the rest who are at .910 or above. There's a drop off, and Leighton is in the wrong group. Pair that with his usual GP and it s shows he shouldn't be considered a viable backup. He's a career minor league player fit only for emergency duty.

You want your backup goalie to produce .910 or above. Leighton falls below that.

Edit: only three of the goalies who outperformed Leighton's career numbers (stats you know I personally have an asterisk next to) barely outperformed him. Two guys with .903, one with .904. Then there's a leap to .909, the average, and 19 are above .910. If your backup doesn't get .910 it's safe to consider he's done a pretty bad job.

Edit: And only once in the current era does he get .910 or above. In his other stint as backup in Carolina he falls below. He meets it in Chicago before the rules change but I don't know what the backup average was, and it was 10 years ago anyways.
Ok, I guess there really is nothing further to say.

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01-11-2013, 01:17 PM
  #144
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Same time next month?

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01-11-2013, 01:19 PM
  #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesesteak Invictus View Post
Same time next month?
I doubt he gets a start by then. I'd say mid-March, barring any injury to Bryz.

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01-11-2013, 01:28 PM
  #146
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i say Leights starts within 5 games.

unless Bryz storms the gate from the get go.

but i honestly dont care which one plays betterso long as both play well

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01-11-2013, 01:53 PM
  #147
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but i honestly dont care which one plays betterso long as both play well
That's just plain not true...

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01-11-2013, 01:59 PM
  #148
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not sure how anyone could even begin to think ML mite outperform Bryz

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01-11-2013, 02:06 PM
  #149
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season stars off with back to back games for the Flyers with the games less then 24 hrs apart. there is a decent chance we see ML very early imo.

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01-11-2013, 02:57 PM
  #150
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not sure how anyone could even begin to think ML mite outperform Bryz
I dont think its that big of a stretch, ML has out preformed Bryz as a Flyers goaltender. ML's 2010 run was far and away better then what Bryz has shown as Flyer (ML chicago series was not good but know where near Byrz's performance in the Penguins series), and I would be willing to bet that ML will have better stats then Bryz this season even with the small amount of games he will get.

Do I think ML is the answer? of course not but 1 year ML at 900,000 is WAY better then Bryz at 8 more years at 5.6. Can you imagine this head case on the books for 5.6 million at 37-40 years old. He cant even preform consistanty right now how would you ever expect him to deliver the goods at 37-40?

As for wanting him to fail, god yes I hope he goes down in flames and quick. Last thing I want is PH to get blinded by a decent season only to see him falter back to mediocrity and miss the window for amnesty buy out. Buy him out and go look for a capable decent goalie at a fair and decent contract, who ever that may be.

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