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Old
01-10-2013, 06:03 PM
  #801
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That's great, thanks for sharing!

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01-10-2013, 08:27 PM
  #802
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Originally Posted by TheWook View Post
Kea is shattering is offensive totals from last season, looks like Regier/Devine made some real good picks so far.
What did they see in Kea in the first place? He's big clearly, and a C, but surely there a plenty of those out there. His offensive stats are putrid before this season. How did they anticipate this?

EDIT:

Quote:
Kevin Devine (Buffalo Sabres)

“If you look at his stats, they weren’t very good during the regular season. But (Saginaw) fired their coach during the season, and now
he’s playing for Greg Gilbert, a guy Darcy and I both know. (Gilbert) thinks that he’ll be a good third-liner center in the NHL; a better-
skating Paul Gaustad.”

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01-10-2013, 09:09 PM
  #803
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Originally Posted by gregor View Post
What did they see in Kea in the first place? He's big clearly, and a C, but surely there a plenty of those out there. His offensive stats are putrid before this season. How did they anticipate this?

EDIT:
Yeah, they were banking on the coaching change really helping Kea. By now with this group's track record...I think you have to give them the benefit of the doubt on draft picks. Clearly, they know a thing or two...now hopefully Kea keeps progressing.

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01-10-2013, 10:00 PM
  #804
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Originally Posted by gregor View Post
What did they see in Kea in the first place? He's big clearly, and a C, but surely there a plenty of those out there. His offensive stats are putrid before this season. How did they anticipate this?

EDIT:
He was drafted mostly for his defensive game, which is already developed at a pretty high level. I'm sure they saw some offensive upside but the defensive game is what brought the attention.

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01-11-2013, 07:09 AM
  #805
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Originally Posted by gregor View Post
What did they see in Kea in the first place? He's big clearly, and a C, but surely there a plenty of those out there. His offensive stats are putrid before this season. How did they anticipate this?

EDIT:
The tool set is there - particularly how well he moves and how he takes care of his positioning. Add in how big he is and that he makes a lot of contact with people, he has the basis for a bottom 6 guy right there.

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01-11-2013, 07:38 AM
  #806
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Originally Posted by gregor View Post
What did they see in Kea in the first place? He's big clearly, and a C, but surely there a plenty of those out there. His offensive stats are putrid before this season. How did they anticipate this?

EDIT:
They saw a big two-way forward that could skate with some untapped offensive potential. He was reduced to a fourth line role in his draft year and the scouting staff obviously thought that he was poised for a breakout year based on his strong playoff and an increased role. He was already a good penalty killer but with a playoff that showed signs of an offensive game, they obviously felt he was worth a look earlier than some as the Sabres were without a fourth-round pick.

Also, when Ross MacLean of ISS speaks highly of the guy as a sleeper, he's probably not some putrid middle-round scrub either.

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01-11-2013, 07:46 AM
  #807
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Fresh off his great play during the recent World Junior Championships, Sabres prospect Andrey Makarov and the Saskatoon Blades host the Red Deer Rebels this Friday night. The game will be the Friday Night CHL Hockey Game Of The Week and it can be seen LIVE on all Sportsnet Channels in Canada and the NHL Network in the US starting at 8:00 pm ET. (If you can't watch it LIVE on NHL Network-US - there are edited two-hour replays scheduled for Friday night at 11:00 pm ET and Saturday morning at 6:00 am ET.)

For Canadian viewers only, from 7:00 pm ET to 8:00 pm ET - all of the Sportsnet Channels will be showing an episode of "On The Edge: Road To The Mastercard Memorial Cup" which is a look at the Saskatoon Blades "run" to this years Memorial Cup in which they are the host team.
Just bumping this up since the game is tonight - Go Makarov! Go Blades!


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01-11-2013, 07:51 AM
  #808
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Kea's numbers should improve now that Trochek has been dealt, will be the 1st line center in Saginaw.

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01-11-2013, 08:14 AM
  #809
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Now that he's putting up points, Kea seems (to me) like a great pick.

Having not seen him in action, it was hard for me to believe a 3rd was warranted. He must really have had all the defensive tools in place already, as you guys all noted.

Darcy and company are really underrated when it comes to the draft. These guys can really hit on the later picks.

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01-11-2013, 08:53 AM
  #810
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Just bumping this up since the game is tonight - Go Makarov! Go Blades!
Thanks. I haven't seen this anywhere else.

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01-11-2013, 11:33 AM
  #811
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Originally Posted by gregor View Post
Now that he's putting up points, Kea seems (to me) like a great pick.

Having not seen him in action, it was hard for me to believe a 3rd was warranted. He must really have had all the defensive tools in place already, as you guys all noted.
I still don't think using a 3rd on a guy that probably tops out as a 4C is smart.
Hell, using any draft pick on that is probably a bad idea since a 4C isn't very valuable in the grand scheme of things and they are on the market all the time, whether it's as a free agent coming out of developmental leagues or an established player.

FWIW, without even using the powers of hindsight (posted a blog about who I wanted with each pick prior to the draft), my picks would have been either Matt Murray (G, Sault Ste. Marie) or James Melindy (D, Moncton).
Both of them went after Kea in the third round and some of the others I wanted later (mostly goaltenders) did also.
Then there's also Charles Hudon, who I probably would have taken in the 2nd or 3rd as long as he checked out medically after being concussed in the playoffs (I had him in the 4th because I wasn't sure of how he was doing, ended up going in the 5th).

This is basically the same thing I was going to say to Jame when he asked a few days ago if I had changed my mind on the McCabe pick.
I'd rather go for upside instead of safe.

Quote:
Darcy and company are really underrated when it comes to the draft. These guys can really hit on the later picks.
Well, they seem to go for the safe players, which isn't incredibly difficult.
They may end up with a player and it makes their drafting record look better, but having a whole stable of average prospects doesn't do you much good (look no further than this team).
Hopefully with the increased scouting budget they'll go after more junior A kids, Europeans, and with possibly increased connections and viewings of kids prior to junior hockey, ones that are buried on the depth charts of contending CHL teams.

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01-11-2013, 11:42 AM
  #812
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Preview - Red Deer Rebels at Saskatoon Blades - Friday, January 11 - 8:00 pm ET.

Patrick King | January 11, 2013, 11:30 am - Sportsnet.ca - Twitter @SNPatrickKing

Programming alert: Watch Mathew Dumba and the Red Deer Rebels take on the Saskatoon Blades on Friday Night Hockey on Sportsnet starting at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. (LaxSabre: Also LIVE on NHL Network in the United States.)

THE GOALIES - Andrey Makarov is coming back to Saskatoon with some shiny hardware after capturing the bronze-medal for the host Russians in the world junior tournament. A year ago, he performed admirably in a 1-0 overtime loss to the Swedes in the gold-medal game. Makarov's numbers are modest, but his four shutouts are tied for the league lead and his clutch international performances should bode well for the playoffs and tournament. "We expect big things from him in the second half because we're going to need him to provide the type of goaltending that's necessary to be successful," Molleken said.

The Rebels also went without their import goaltender for the better part of a month. The Czech sensation, Patrik Bartosak, is among the league leaders in every statistical category and should provide a lift for a team that may have ended up on the winning side of a few losses had he been available. "He's one of the best goalies in the league and arguably the best," Sutter said. "(It's the) goaltender's responsibility to give you a chance to win games, not lose games and Patrik gives you a chance every night he's in the net."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/junio...d_deer_rebels/


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Old
01-11-2013, 12:16 PM
  #813
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
I still don't think using a 3rd on a guy that probably tops out as a 4C is smart.
Hell, using any draft pick on that is probably a bad idea since a 4C isn't very valuable in the grand scheme of things and they are on the market all the time, whether it's as a free agent coming out of developmental leagues or an established player.

FWIW, without even using the powers of hindsight (posted a blog about who I wanted with each pick prior to the draft), my picks would have been either Matt Murray (G, Sault Ste. Marie) or James Melindy (D, Moncton).
Both of them went after Kea in the third round and some of the others I wanted later (mostly goaltenders) did also.
Then there's also Charles Hudon, who I probably would have taken in the 2nd or 3rd as long as he checked out medically after being concussed in the playoffs (I had him in the 4th because I wasn't sure of how he was doing, ended up going in the 5th).

This is basically the same thing I was going to say to Jame when he asked a few days ago if I had changed my mind on the McCabe pick.
I'd rather go for upside instead of safe.

Well, they seem to go for the safe players, which isn't incredibly difficult.
They may end up with a player and it makes their drafting record look better, but having a whole stable of average prospects doesn't do you much good (look no further than this team).
Hopefully with the increased scouting budget they'll go after more junior A kids, Europeans, and with possibly increased connections and viewings of kids prior to junior hockey, ones that are buried on the depth charts of contending CHL teams.
I disagree: Myers, Ennis, Armia, and Grigs can all be viewed as risky picks, though none were reaches.

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01-11-2013, 01:21 PM
  #814
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I disagree: Myers, Ennis, Armia, and Grigs can all be viewed as risky picks, though none were reaches.
Well, only two of those really occurred under the old ownership that loved their safe picks and "xth best drafting record since the lockout" (somewhere near the top of the pile).
They probably could have fired their already miniscule scouting staff during that time and just went off of service lists and ended up just as well off.
They basically rarely stepped outside of their comfort zone (the CHL, which is scouted to death and therefore less likely to surprise) and seemingly when they had a choice between high upside and average upside, they'd opt for the average player with less risk.
I'm not sure if they ever came out and said it (or even came close to implying it), but it was basically a measure to ensure that they could replace talent they lost to free agency with cheaper homegrown bodies, which ends up being an endless cycle of averageness.

Basically the way I look at is this: you're better off drafting and developing someone that has the potential to be an important part of your team rather than someone that is just a spare part type.
It may seem obvious, but if you look at it in terms of value, I think it becomes clear.
Would you rather spend a draft pick and time developing a scorer or pay for one?
If you're trading for a good one, you're bound to give up something equally as good or even better, depending on the situation.
If you're getting one in free agency, they're right around the end of their prime, are statistically very likely to disappoint, and you're likely overpaying.
If you draft one, it's a draft pick and time that you're giving up and you could end up with something that is very valuable.
Now replace "scorer" in the question with "checker" and think about it.
They don't hold much value on the market, are readily available, and while checkers are important to teams, they're not going to win you games like a scorer will.

So when it comes down to it, it's great that Kea is showing positive signs.
However, was the third round really a good time to pick up a 4C?
Not in my books when top six + 3C/top four D/starters with a decent shot of reaching their potential were still on the board.

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01-11-2013, 02:04 PM
  #815
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I still don't think using a 3rd on a guy that probably tops out as a 4C is smart.
Hell, using any draft pick on that is probably a bad idea since a 4C isn't very valuable in the grand scheme of things and they are on the market all the time, whether it's as a free agent coming out of developmental leagues or an established player.
Don't know about that, when there are so many why don't we have one? And when they are not valuable why did we get that first for Paul Gaustad?

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01-11-2013, 03:06 PM
  #816
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Don't know about that, when there are so many why don't we have one? And when they are not valuable why did we get that first for Paul Gaustad?
I don't know why teams make the decisions they do, so I can't answer why the Sabres don't have one or why the Predators were dumb enough to give up a first for Gaustad.
However, there are options on the market every year, whether it's free agency or trade, and they never cost much.

A better question to ask would be how many teams set out to draft their 4C of the future?
I'd guess "not many" would be the answer and it's for a variety of reasons.
Teams just don't covet guys that play 10-12 minutes a night as much as they do ones that play 20 or 30 (or if you're a goalie, the whole game).
If you're counting on a guy to just accept his role and do his job and make a minimal amount of mistakes, which is what you want from your depth guys, you're more likely to get that from a veteran than a kid.
There's always the experience factor that older players bring too (many Cup contenders and winners have their character guys, castaways, and old guys that have had to reinvent their game to keep an NHL job rather than a 20 something doing the job).

Plus, you have to look at a players value just as an asset.
Even if your team is full of talent and you have no need for an additional top six/top four/starter or in the future, those type of prospects still have big value.
Everyone loves a scoring forward, big minute defenseman, or starting goaltender prospect.
The same can't really be said for depth prospects.
I'd much rather have too much talent in an organization rather than not enough.

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01-11-2013, 03:09 PM
  #817
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I kind of think that after the 1st couple rounds you just hope you can get a potential NHL player out of the draft. Risk versus reward is all well and good and I prefer risk but mining a player out of the long shots isn't a bad thing.

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01-11-2013, 03:31 PM
  #818
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This is basically the same thing I was going to say to Jame when he asked a few days ago if I had changed my mind on the McCabe pick.
I'd rather go for upside instead of safe.
I think you end up with more busts, and a weaker pipeline following that methodology.

I think if you have a good mix up high upside in the pipeline, then it's time to build your depth with some safer-side talent, that you still project to the NHL.

I don't consider McCabe a purely "safe" pick, I think he has plenty of upside, and his growth since being drafted shows that.

At what point prior to NHL success does the player change your mind? Because, since being drafted, McCabe has only gotten better (upside).

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01-11-2013, 03:43 PM
  #819
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Basically the way I look at is this: you're better off drafting and developing someone that has the potential to be an important part of your team rather than someone that is just a spare part type.
It may seem obvious, but if you look at it in terms of value, I think it becomes clear.
I don't think 3rd line centers or NHL caliber defensemen are spare parts.

Quote:
Would you rather spend a draft pick and time developing a scorer or pay for one?
I'd rather draft with the entire picture in mind, the entire picture is not scorers and #1 defensemen only. Drafting scorers in the 3rd round gets you Clarke MacArthur... woohoo

Quote:
If you're trading for a good one, you're bound to give up something equally as good or even better, depending on the situation.
If you're getting one in free agency, they're right around the end of their prime, are statistically very likely to disappoint, and you're likely overpaying. If you draft one, it's a draft pick and time that you're giving up and you could end up with something that is very valuable.

Now replace "scorer" in the question with "checker" and think about it. They don't hold much value on the market, are readily available, and while checkers are important to teams, they're not going to win you games like a scorer will.
The difference is, the good ones... aren't readily available on the market.

And they do win you games... especially in the playoffs.

Quote:
So when it comes down to it, it's great that Kea is showing positive signs.
However, was the third round really a good time to pick up a 4C?
Not in my books when top six + 3C/top four D/starters with a decent shot of reaching their potential were still on the board.
I find it odd that you believe finding a "scorer" in the 3rd round is possible, but that Kea becoming a good 3rd line defensive forward is somehow not possible... That was your draft day thoughts, and oddly enough, they haven't changed. Just like with McCabe, not even a wonderful WJC performance has changed your mind.


I think Kea's ceiling is a 3C (not discussing whether he reaches it or not, or even the odds of him reaching it), and it is quite an important position to have in the pipeline. Or haven't you noticed that there is a hole in that area throughout the organization?

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01-11-2013, 03:45 PM
  #820
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Don't know about that, when there are so many why don't we have one? And when they are not valuable why did we get that first for Paul Gaustad?
they are apparently readily available when you think Paul Gaustad and Zenon Konopka are essentially the same player

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01-11-2013, 03:46 PM
  #821
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I don't know why teams make the decisions they do, so I can't answer why the Sabres don't have one or why the Predators were dumb enough to give up a first for Gaustad.
However, there are options on the market every year, whether it's free agency or trade, and they never cost much.

A better question to ask would be how many teams set out to draft their 4C of the future?
I'd guess "not many" would be the answer and it's for a variety of reasons.
Teams just don't covet guys that play 10-12 minutes a night as much as they do ones that play 20 or 30 (or if you're a goalie, the whole game).
If you're counting on a guy to just accept his role and do his job and make a minimal amount of mistakes, which is what you want from your depth guys, you're more likely to get that from a veteran than a kid.
There's always the experience factor that older players bring too (many Cup contenders and winners have their character guys, castaways, and old guys that have had to reinvent their game to keep an NHL job rather than a 20 something doing the job).

Plus, you have to look at a players value just as an asset.
Even if your team is full of talent and you have no need for an additional top six/top four/starter or in the future, those type of prospects still have big value.
Everyone loves a scoring forward, big minute defenseman, or starting goaltender prospect.
The same can't really be said for depth prospects.
I'd much rather have too much talent in an organization rather than not enough.

I agree but have one minor amendment ....I think, in a CAP world, you also have to think about money. A drafted 3rd line center is likely going to cost you less than one signed via free agency...and so on for those other support role players a team can have. So, a pick here and there for a lower potential player/safe player to make the NHL isn't a bad thing...but yes, top level (risky) talent has to be the prime objective for the majority of picks at your disposal IMO.

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01-11-2013, 03:46 PM
  #822
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I think you end up with more busts, and a weaker pipeline following that methodology.

I think if you have a good mix up high upside in the pipeline, then it's time to build your depth with some safer-side talent, that you still project to the NHL.

I don't consider McCabe a purely "safe" pick, I think he has plenty of upside, and his growth since being drafted shows that.

At what point prior to NHL success does the player change your mind? Because, since being drafted, McCabe has only gotten better (upside).
There is no such thing as a safe draft pick. Top picks have faded and bottom picks have excelled, the Redwings have many who fit in this category. They are for the most part a crap shoot with the so called "generation player" being the exception, eg: Crosby.

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01-11-2013, 03:52 PM
  #823
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There is no such thing as a safe draft pick. Top picks have faded and bottom picks have excelled, the Redwings have many who fit in this category. They are for the most part a crap shoot with the so called "generation player" being the exception, eg: Crosby.
i didn't originally use the term "safe", JFB did...

But there IS such a thing as "safer" picks when comparing player one prospect to another

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01-11-2013, 03:52 PM
  #824
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Also who says that Kea upside is a 4th liner? Buffalo believes he will be a 3rd liner and some other scouts seem to think he may just be a late bloomer.


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01-11-2013, 04:40 PM
  #825
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If we get a good 3C from a third-round pick, I'm ecstatic. What kind of player are you expecting in the third round.

Here is a list of every third-round pick from 2000 - 2007 that has played at least 100 NHL games:

2007 Yannick Weber 109
2006 Steve Mason 219
2006 Brad Marchand 173
2006 Cal Clutterbuck 304
2006 Theo Peckham 156
2005 K. Letang 350
2005 Kris Russell 331
2005 Jonathan Quick 249
2005 Cody Franson 198
2005 T.J. Hensick 112
2004 Sami Lepisto 176
2004 Brandon Prust 279
2004 Andrej Sekera 302
2004 Tim Brent 177
2004 Clayton Stoner 116
2004 Peter Regin 151
2004 Alex Edler 386
2004 Johan Franzen 472
2004 Dustin Boyd 472
2003 Colin Fraser 291
2003 Daniel Carcillo 310
2003 Clarke MacArthur 363
2003 Ryan O'Byrne 266
2003 Alexandre Picard 253
2003 Ryan Potulny 126
2003 Zack Stortini 257
2002 Ole-Kristian Tollefsen 163
2002 Greg Campbell 521
2002 Erik Christensen 387
2002 Matt Jones 106
2002 Frans Nielsen 319
2002 Matt Lombardi 508
2002 Val Filppula 442
2001 Brendan Bell 102
2001 Tomas Plekanec 551
2001 Craig Anderson 294
2001 Garth Murray 116
2001 Jay Harrison 202
2001 Aaron Johnson 281
2001 Stephane Veilleux 460
2001 Evgeny Artyukhin 199
2001 Patrick Sharp 567
2000 Joel Lundqvist 134
2000 Mikael Tellqvist 114
2000 Michael Rupp 557
2000 Ryan Bayda 179
2000 Kurt Sauer 357
2000 Dominic Moore 530

As you can see, only about 5-7 players from the third round each year go on to play more than 100 NHL games. Of those, only about 1-2 players or so each year are "impact" players that would be better than a 3C (or the equivalent for D or Goal). As you can see, there certainly aren't a lot of goal scorers on that list.

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