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Old
01-12-2013, 10:37 AM
  #651
TSA0402
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Yeah yeah talent that you can ''see''.


Foligno vs Nash is a completely different comparison than Kuba vs Karlsson because their teammates and roles are completely different. You obviously have to take that into account.

And did admit Kuba's stats are inflated due to Karlsson. But them being better is an indication that it's not all Karlsson, and Kuba helped him out a great deal.


Using crazy stats I could probably prove Nash > Foligno anyway, so I don't know what your point is.
Your arguments circulate on minutes per point on PP and strictly minute based stuff which ignore obvious things such as the amount of ice time each player has had per shift and QoC on power play.

Also, at the end its still a team game, like + -, don't expect Kuba's numbers to stay like that. Fluctuates, and Karlsson gets so much extra ice time it tilts his point per minute rating some. Its called fatigue, try running full speed for minute, and then do it for another minute. See what happens the second round.

I bring up Foligno vs Nash because of your obsession with one player being as good because of points per 60.

Rick Nash : Point per 26 minutes of ice time.

Nick Foligno : Point per 25 minutes of ice time.

Who you think gets more power play time between the two?

Rick Nash got 10x more in a trade, Erik Karlsson got a much better contract. My point is simple.

Its easy to cherry pick numbers, but its easy to see past it when you watch the games.

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01-12-2013, 10:46 AM
  #652
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Again, Kuba is better offensively and defensively than Karlsson. More points, better goals for and better goals against. They didn't play together.
...
Not saying Kuba > Karlsson.
Mandy, how can you say "Kuba is better offensively and defensively than Karlsson" and then two sentences later say Kuba is not better than Karlsson?

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Old
01-12-2013, 10:48 AM
  #653
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Mandy, how can you say "Kuba is better offensively and defensively than Karlsson" and then two sentences later say Kuba is not better than Karlsson?
Because the QOC of the CORSI BVB and the ROB all adjust into the relative TOV and BPOI stats.

Advanced stats are so stupid if you use them as the bible.

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01-12-2013, 11:12 AM
  #654
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Originally Posted by Manked View Post
Because the QOC of the CORSI BVB and the ROB all adjust into the relative TOV and BPOI stats.

Advanced stats are so stupid if you use them as the bible
.
Yep. ONLY looking at stats is as bad as NEVER looking at stats.

Stats are great, but like anything, too much is a bad thing.

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01-12-2013, 11:34 AM
  #655
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Well his average time on ice was slightly more then Cowen but yes its debatable between the two of them they both kindof flip flopped.

Point is there is no Cowen and Phillips has barely been on the ice and is a year older. Methot will also not log as many minutes as Kuba did plus like I mentioned earlier the schedule is condensed. Im starting to think they need two D men not just one.
I kind of think Murray has given up on stop gaps. He did take a flyer on Latendresse at $2 million, but he is young and has potential and it was a one year deal. My point is that I think Murray is looking for a defenceman or even two that he will definitely want to keep for multiple years. No stop gap players like Lee or Gilroy were. No signing Chris Campoli, no signing a very old defenceman as a UFA who is a stop gap.

They gave Carkner a shot as a career AHL guy. They gave Derek Smith a taste and he stuck with Calgary last season. I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Benoit gets a shot until Lundin comes back. Unless he is not good enough he is quite likely to get a shot at the start of the season. Wiercioch will get a shot to be the 4/5 D-man. This is the key thing the Murray's will look at the first 10 games of the season. They need him to be effective enough to log 20 mins a night... to play about as much as Phillips does. To either play with Gonchar on the 2nd pairing or anchor the bottom pairing. Borowiecki has a shot if either of the other 2 call-ups fail. If all 3 fail... and Lundin does not return soon or he fails when he does which is possible then Murray will need to make a move to get a stop gap. I really don't think he wants to get a stop gap right now.

Now all of this said... Murray is in the market for a defenceman that will be here long term. If he sees a guy he likes that is available he will try hard to get him, whether it is tomorrow, the deadline, the off season. Like Methot, he clearly really liked and he was willing to pay the price to get him.

The only UFA I could see him possibly be interested in is Kurtis Foster... and only if he knows something about him or thinks he can be a reclaimation project like Latendresse. He is youngish enough, big and local. Though he has not done well for a few seasons and isn't exactly physical. Murray may have no interest at all in him, I don't know or know much about him except he had that great season in Tampa and earlier he had decent offensive production in Minnesota. He has the benefit of being available... but that criteria is not enough unless Murray sees something special in him.

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01-12-2013, 11:40 AM
  #656
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Originally Posted by Qward View Post
Phillips was the 5th D last season.

But I agree, finding a top 4 D would be a good idea.
I expect Phillips will still be the 5th D.

Methot and Karlsson and Gonchar paired with Wiercioch could be the top 4.

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01-12-2013, 11:49 AM
  #657
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
I did not use a single Corsi stat.
That's too bad, as they give a far better idea of quality of play than +/- over a small sample (one season).

All you've provided is +/- for ES, PP and PK, without context. Next to useless.

There are too few goals in just one season (especially for PP and PK) to get any reliable information from the data.

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Old
01-12-2013, 12:15 PM
  #658
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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
Do you know why a tank plan like you suggest is so obtuse? So completely misguided? So we trade Spezza, Gonchar, Anderson and Michalek. Then how do we replace them? That is the problem. You can not find talented players easily. Free agency has become a very limited enterprise and not only do you need to find a high quality free agent, you need to lure him here from among 29 other options. Even if the Senators make the short list it is usually not even about money... it is about term. And moreso it is about ties to a city, family reasons... all kinds of things that make other cities often better options. Surely some players would love to sign here, but most will not. We got Gonchar because we were I think the only team to offer him a 3 year deal.
Spezza = Top 3 pick
Anderson =< Lehner
Gonchar = Weircioch (may not be as good but Gonchar is old and leaving for Pitts or Russia in the summer anyway)
Michalek = UFA or developing prospects. Not a legitimate 1st line player imo and will eventually be able to be replaced from within.

These guys will be TRADED, which means they'll get players/picks back. They are good players which means good returns that can help offset their loss a good deal or possibly even completely. They won't be lost for nothing.

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So you can go and trade veteran players and get what in return? Lesser quality roster players, picks and prospects. And then you wait until they MIGHT become important parts of the team. So we should get rid of our best centre, our best winger, our best goalie and our 2nd best defenceman? It is a very optimistic.... well actually more like fantasy to think we are going to replace that kind of production anytime soon if they were traded. And also if we got rid of those guys we would be MASSIVELY under the cap.
I wouldn't trade Spezza or Michalek unless a good package was coming back. Like that Wild deal (not even sure I would do it).

You're kidding yourself if you think their returns won't help at all. And the point is to tank. Again, you're kidding yourself if you think that pick won't help.

Spezza would get a better return than Nash (if that's what you're afraid of) because I believe he doesn't have a no trade clause, he's cheaper, he's a centre and he's just plainly a better player.

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What you fail to take into consideration is that the REAL NHL is not a video game or a fantasy league. You can't just get a quality player easily... you either wait years for him to develop or hope you luck into a trade. It is skill to make a good trade... but it also takes lucky circumstances to roll together. Turris wanted out and had contract and issues with his former team. We know all about Heatley... basically 3 times on a forced trade. Joe Thornton to San Jose.. suddenly he is just traded and no other team but San Jose knew he was available. Anderson and Elliott was the oddest combination of circumstances for both teams. It is HARD to make a trade for a truly talented top echlon player, it happens rarely and you end up sometimes just being lucky to get a guy.
And you fail to take into consideration that most quality players are acquired through the draft. Hence, the tank. Quality young > Quality old player.

Trading Spezza assures a top pick... his great return is gravy on top.

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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
Want to know why Foligno was moved for Methot? Because we legitimately had several good prospects ready THIS SEASON to play his 2nd/3rd line winger job. We really needed a competent 2 way defenceman that was physical. We weren't dumping Foligno... it took that much to get a youngish physcial 3/4/5 defenceman.
Several? You mean 1, right?

If Silf flops, there is no one.


Methot is so FAR from a 2-way D-man, I can't believe I just read that.

And no, we didn't really need him to be physical. If physicality was SO important, Lee and Carkner would have been retained and Gilroy would not have traded for and Lundin would not have been signed.

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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
Kuba was decent last year. He was good. He is also old and he wasn't that good the couple of years before. I am sure if they could have got him to sign for 1 year they would have strongly considered it. At 2 years they moved on from Kuba.
Sure.

All I'm saying is 2011-12 Kuba >>> whatever Methot will bring.

I don't expect the Sens to be as good as last year. Might as well tank instead of finishing 10th.

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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
This team has the pieces to compete now and compete for many more years to come. Fleecing the team of most of the best talent basically, that isn't Karlsson, is impossibe under the Cap anyway.... and so wrong headed. It would take years to get back the talent.
No it wouldn't... top 3 selection, hello..

There is no penalty for being under the cap floor. You can run with a $20M payroll if you want.



With the money I would take a run at Perry. There are limits contracts now... limits on how crazy you can get. 7 years @ $9M per would get Perry's attention. The money is there.

MacKinnon + Perry + Granlund + Brodin + Larsson >>>>> Spezza

Hypothetical but that kind of situation with those kinds of players is not completely impossible.

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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
What we are doing as a franchise is WAITING for that trade or move. We have a ton of Cap Space and the owner will spend the money. We just need to make a deal to get a great asset that we want WHEN ONE BECOMES AVAILABLE and we will pay the $$$$ and give up the futures we need to get him. We have forward prospects and roster players and a 3rd goalie. We have like $20 million in cap room.. or something like that. We were IN on the Nash sweepstakes. Nash did not have the Senators on his list of teams he would go to. But Murray definitely kicked the tires.
Thing is I think we should do the OPPOSITE.

Instead of giving up assets for a guy like Nash, ACQUIRE assets for Spezza/whoever --> then proceed to clean up at the draft and free agency, getting all the best players.

Getting players in trades in never free, obviously. Drafting players and signing them in free agency on the other hand is ''free''. All it costs is money; no assets, no prospects.

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I am telling you how it IS. Thinking trading 4 of our top 6 or 7 players is a good idea... is so ridiculous. We don't have a SINGLE bad contract. The team is now perfectly built to attract a deal or a Free Agent and for the current prospects to have lots of room to develop... and we are good enough to make the playoffs last year and challenge for them this year. Most experts I have seen are putting the Sens right in the middle of the pack in the league. We finished 16th last year and most think we are about that good now. Again with a Cap minimum payroll and tons of spots on the roster for prospects to develop. Trading the core of the team for picks and lesser young players would be dumb.
It's been done before, trading half your good players. Gonchar is gone anyway. Anderson is redundant now. Michalek is nothing special imo and replaceable.

That leaves Spezza. It's not an easy pill to swallow. I get it. If I was GM (incoming thank Alfie you're not) I may not have the guts to do it even if the team was in 15th at the trade deadline.

There's risk involved. ie the top pick doesn't pan out, no UFAs want to come here, etc. But if it does pan out, it could pay off BIG TIME.

Imagine having a Tavares on entry level. Imagine acquiring Granlund and Brodin and have them develop into extremely solid NHLers. Imagine signing Perry in free agency. This is so much better than Spezza. AINEC.

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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
What we will do and should do... is wait until the deadline. Make deals for players that seem likely to resign with us, or still have term on their contracts. Then there actually will be some players of value available. Some teams will have fallen out of the playoff races. Some will want to dump players with term on their contracts because of the cap going down next season.
All you want to do BUY BUY BUY. The Sens aren't in a position to do that right now.

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01-12-2013, 12:27 PM
  #659
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Spezza is 29. TWENTY-NINE. Do I think he will be not too far off the level he has been in his career so far for 4 or 5 years? Yes I do. No reason to think he would still be a possible top 10 scorer in the NHL if he has a healthy full season in 2017.
How many times has Spezza actually finished top 10 in scoring? This season is more likely to an abnormality than a regular occurrence.

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Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
And yes... if we have a good season and Karlsson, Spezza and Alfredsson stay healthy I do think we COULD make a deep playoff run. We almost beat the Rangers last year. We might not but I certainly think we COULD. I think Maclean, Murray and Melynyk all hold the same opinion too. That if we have a healthy season and a little luck we could go to the 2nd, 3rd, finals. We might not certainly, but the team is close enough that it is not at all impossible. That is the goal this season. To make the playoffs and try to be as ready as possible to win at least a round or more.
No, if everything goes right, the Sens will squeak into the playoffs.

Everything went perfect in 2011-12 and pretty much everyone had career seasons/overachieved. No deep playoff run this year sorry.

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01-12-2013, 12:38 PM
  #660
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^^Who the hell is Mandy? It's definitely not you

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01-12-2013, 12:56 PM
  #661
MAK19
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Seriously you have no idea about that... you're not qualified enough to know about it and you're just trying to have your biased opinion as a fact, as usual

If Kuba was in his prime years maybe but he is now 36 y/o (weren't you among people complaining about "old players"?) and have went through many hard injuries... Methot is younger, more physical and better defensively. He is also more mobile and a fastest skater at this point... I just have no idea how his passing and offensive game can develop paired with Karlsson
You don't get it do you?

It's 2011-12 Kuba vs 2012-13 Methot. Right now I'm not arguing whether or not this is right for long term... I'm arguing whether or not the Sens will be as good as last year.

Kuba had the best season of his career.

''no idea how his passing and offensive game can develop paired with Karlsson'' - the guy is 27 years old and has never scored more than 17 points in a season including NHL, AHL and major junior. I think we can SAFELY say he is worse offensively than Kuba.

I have doubts Methot can match Kuba defensively, but even if he does, he can't match Kuba's two-way contributions at even strength, PP and PK.

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Originally Posted by Xspyrit View Post
Latendresse has been very unlucky the past 2 seasons (not 3 like you said) but with all things being equal, he is a much better hockey player than Foligno and it's not even close. The guy can make your top-6 more dangerous, unlike Foligno who is an Elite 3rd liner (in the Kelly class but really not as good defensively)
2 seasons, 3 years. Has hardly played.

The guy has played only 3 relatively full seasons since 2006. That's insane. Not only is it unlikely he stays healthy, it's possible he won't produce even if he does.

What are you basing Lats being better than Foligno? He had ONE productive 55 game stretch in 2009-10 with one team. That's it. He's never touched Foligno's 47 points, not even close.

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Not only that, but Methot+Latendresse is a lot cheaper... saves a lot of money for Melnyk and gives us more cap flexibility long-term.
Again, not talking long term here.

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Originally Posted by Xspyrit View Post
Bah, just read Dr.Sens post, the guy knows what he is talking about
Yes he's a good poster

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Originally Posted by Xspyrit View Post
How could anyone read things like this without thinking that you're severely biased?

What is the most funny is that you change the song of your tune overnight, to fit your arguments... Just like the other day... see what I wrote in the "Trade Rumors and Proposals" thread :

What is funny is that YOU WHINE LIKE CRAZY when we trade Foligno for Methot, but you're also saying we should trade Michalek (who is a much much better player than Foligno) for Gorges (who is just more popular and well-known than Methot)
Umm, if you actually read the thread and didn't selectively chose what you want to read, you would know that I said:
-I wouldn't trade Michalek for Gorges, I was commenting on the value
-Gorges is a #2 and Methot a #5 imo. big difference.

Foligno scored 47 points with Zack Smith and Chris Neil while Michalek scored 60 with Spezza and Karlsson. Really, you think Michalek is a god and Foligno a bum?

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Old
01-12-2013, 01:00 PM
  #662
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Foligno spent the majority of the season on the top 6. He ended the season with Smith and Neil.

Stop making **** up.

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01-12-2013, 01:19 PM
  #663
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Wait... You say Kuba has been on the ice for more goals for than Karlsson. Yet Karlsson lead everyone in the league for most goals for while he was on the ice. The league.

How the **** does that work. You say that Kuba has been better offensively than Karlsson. I don't even need you to say "see the talent." ARE YOU SERIOUS? LOL SHOULD I POINT OUT POINT DIFFERENCE? Where are you getting these stats?
?

Read the post.

Even strength goals for total, that goes to Karlsson. Per ice time (on ice goals for/even strength ice time), Kuba was higher.

And no that does not mean Kuba is better offensively than Karlsson. Just pointing out that Kuba was no scrub and facilitated offense out there, helped out Karlsson and was not too shabby himself.

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01-12-2013, 01:21 PM
  #664
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Foligno spent the majority of the season on the top 6. He ended the season with Smith and Neil.

Stop making **** up.
His #1 linemate was Chris Neil. So no Qwardo, I'm not making things up.


You on the other hand, saying Phillips was the #5, are making things up.

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01-12-2013, 01:30 PM
  #665
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Mandy definitely does not know... getting sick of having to read through that tripe.

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01-12-2013, 01:33 PM
  #666
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
His #1 linemate was Chris Neil. So no Qwardo, I'm not making things up.


You on the other hand, saying Phillips was the #5, are making things up.
He spent 2% more time with Neil than Alfredsson ES, for all of about 18 mins over a season. Lets not pretend he didn't spend significant time on the 2nd line.

Care too look and see which line most of his points came from?

His GF/20 was 1.101 with Alfredsson, it was .816 with Neil

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01-12-2013, 01:38 PM
  #667
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Umm, if you actually read the thread and didn't selectively chose what you want to read, you would know that I said:-I wouldn't trade Michalek for Gorges, I was commenting on the value -Gorges is a #2 and Methot a #5 imo. big difference.
Yet you would trade Spezza for a higher draft pick? We have one of the top centers in this league. There are not many that have come along who can produce in the same manner as Spezza, nor will there be more coming along any time soon. Whether this team declines this season or not, trading Spezza is not debatable, it is like talking about trading Alfredsson. These two are mainstays on this team, now and moving forward.

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01-12-2013, 01:56 PM
  #668
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Mandy definitely does not know... getting sick of having to read through that tripe.
+1. Learn basic logic before trying anything advanced. Hockey ethics 101.

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01-12-2013, 02:04 PM
  #669
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Originally Posted by Manked View Post
Because the QOC of the CORSI BVB and the ROB all adjust into the relative TOV and BPOI stats.

Advanced stats are so stupid if you use them as the bible.
Arguably the bible is very rarely strictly interpreted these days.

I agree with what you're saying though.

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01-12-2013, 02:04 PM
  #670
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Sorry, my point was that almost every proposal that I've seen on this board is for ottawa to bring in a LH d-man and then puts either Methot or Phillips or Cowen on the Rh side for next year.

Their is no doubt Ottawa will need a 2nd pairing RH D-man next year. Maybe that is the Spot the Sens should be looking fill now or at the deadline.

I would like to know if there are any good RH top 4 d-man who are UFA's next year, I can't find any.
Yeah theres not many right handed shot defenceman available I just looked up and see what you're saying. Best choices seem to be babchuk, Roszival, or Ian White. Knowing this and the situation the Sens are in this year, i think it makes it all the more likely we trade for a defenceman this year. Or extended Gonchar next year.

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01-12-2013, 02:31 PM
  #671
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Mandy, how can you say "Kuba is better offensively and defensively than Karlsson" and then two sentences later say Kuba is not better than Karlsson?
Hey, Mandy, can you answer this one, too?

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01-12-2013, 02:35 PM
  #672
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I just want to know how he can project 2012-2013 Methot, when he clearly doesn't even know about 2010-2012 Methot.

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01-12-2013, 02:38 PM
  #673
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Mandy, how can you say "Kuba is better offensively and defensively than Karlsson" and then two sentences later say Kuba is not better than Karlsson?
Because he honestly doesn't know what hes talking about. He spews out the most garbage I have ever seen on these boards.

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01-12-2013, 03:04 PM
  #674
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I expect Phillips will still be the 5th D.

Methot and Karlsson and Gonchar paired with Wiercioch could be the top 4.
Think Phillips will start the year with Gonchar, unless Weircoich is just miles better next week.

IMO MacLean will take the veteran over the rookie on defense, whereas up front he is more liable to lean towards a rookie forward as this presents considerably less risk.

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01-12-2013, 03:14 PM
  #675
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Originally Posted by topshelfie View Post
Yeah theres not many right handed shot defenceman available I just looked up and see what you're saying. Best choices seem to be babchuk, Roszival, or Ian White. Knowing this and the situation the Sens are in this year, i think it makes it all the more likely we trade for a defenceman this year. Or extended Gonchar next year.
Thanks, that is what I found as well and I don't like it. All of these trade proposals how about if the Sens make a significant trade for a d-man, why not get a righty?

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