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*ALL* Luongo Talk (News/Speculation/Rumors/Proposals) ‎

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Old
01-13-2013, 12:52 AM
  #276
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Of course. The market for goaltenders can increase or decrease, and is for the most part, totally out of Gillis' predictability or control. Therefore, he cannot make assumptions in regards to that one way or another.

What is in Gillis control, is the role Luongo plays, and by extension his ability to establish value in the context of goaltenders.



I don't know how much he's worth in the league. I know how much he's worth to Toronto... whether that's what he's worth in the league depends on whether there's a team that he's worth more to.
Is that you Mr. Nonis?

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01-13-2013, 12:53 AM
  #277
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OK, because all you hear is that Schneider's the man now and they have to move Luongo. With such a compressed schedule, they are better off keeping both and then waiting to see what happens this summer.

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01-13-2013, 12:53 AM
  #278
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why do you have a say?
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01-13-2013, 12:54 AM
  #279
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So you're hoping that Luongo regains the #1 role in Vancouver and they ditch Schneider? Or are you suggesting that the Canucks are going to trade their #1 goaltender?

I wonder how many Vancouver fans agree with you...
Even in a backup role Luongo will play a minimum of 15 of the 48 games this year. 48 games in 99 days means back up goalies will have heavier rotation this year. His numbers will speak for themselves.

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01-13-2013, 12:55 AM
  #280
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
So you're proposing a 50/50 split, and by extension, expectedly hurting both goalies values?
How would Schneider playing more games than he did last year(or at least the equivalent in a shortened season) hurt his value?

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01-13-2013, 12:56 AM
  #281
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Luongo is coming off a season where he played 55 games, had a .919 sv%, and 2.41 GAA in a #1 role. Realistically, there is no way he can increase or even maintain his value in a backup's role. Far too much of it comes from the fact he's been a #1.

So, if the best you can get for Luongo right now is "a 3rd/4th liner and a 2nd rate project prospect"... you're probably looking at "a 3rd/4th liner and a 3rd rate project prospect" in the future. There doesn't seem to be a good reason to take the lesser package.
so what if Luongo plays in a backup role in Vancouver (until a suitable trade is available), and he puts up a .937 sv% and a 1.96 GAA. Does that hurt his value? or do you not think it's possible for a backup in Vancouver to post those numbers?

and really if the difference is going from a 2nd rate prospect to a 3rd rate prospect by waiting to deal Luongo, then it makes all the sense in the world to wait. Not only is the difference marginal - especially for a team that has no need for 2nd or 3rd rate project prospects, but the impact that a backup can have during a shortened season is much greater than what a marginal prospect can do for us years down the road.

If we lose out on a great trade by waiting, it's a different story, but you're suggesting that his value is crap right now, and it has the "potential" to be a little worse than crap if we wait.... if that's the case, then you wait... Luongo and Schneider have both been key parts of the team winning back to back Presidents' and getting to game 7 of the finals. If all you can get in return in a 3rd/4th liner that doesn't really improve our team (as we have very good 3rd liners already), and a marginal project prospect (again no need for such assets in Vancouver), then you don't trade Luongo, you keep him for the season and look at options next off-season. Even if his value is half that crap return in the off-season, you're still better off keeping him this year and bringing back that impact that helped this team be among the elite in the league, then moving him for parts that will help us less right now. The Canucks goal right now is to ice the most competitive team they can to compete for the Cup, not adding 3rd/4th line players that don't help us and marginal project prospects that will have zero impact during the team's current window.

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01-13-2013, 12:56 AM
  #282
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Originally Posted by Nash View Post
Even in a backup role Luongo will play a minimum of 15 of the 48 games this year. 48 games in 99 days means back up goalies will have heavier rotation this year. His numbers will speak for themselves.
Oh ya... and regardless of those numbers, he won't be a guy who's 3 games removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender when GMs are considering trading for him. He'll be a guy who's 3 games and a season removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender.

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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
so what if Luongo plays in a backup role in Vancouver (until a suitable trade is available), and he puts up a .937 sv% and a 1.96 GAA. Does that hurt his value? or do you not think it's possible for a backup in Vancouver to post those numbers?

and really if the difference is going from a 2nd rate prospect to a 3rd rate prospect by waiting to deal Luongo, then it makes all the sense in the world to wait. Not only is the difference marginal - especially for a team that has no need for 2nd or 3rd rate project prospects, but the impact that a backup can have during a shortened season is much greater than what a marginal prospect can do for us years down the road.

If we lose out on a great trade by waiting, it's a different story, but you're suggesting that his value is crap right now, and it has the "potential" to be a little worse than crap if we wait.... if that's the case, then you wait... Luongo and Schneider have both been key parts of the team winning back to back Presidents' and getting to game 7 of the finals. If all you can get in return in a 3rd/4th liner that doesn't really improve our team (as we have very good 3rd liners already), and a marginal project prospect (again no need for such assets in Vancouver), then you don't trade Luongo, you keep him for the season and look at options next off-season. Even if his value is half that crap return in the off-season, you're still better off keeping him this year and bringing back that impact that helped this team be among the elite in the league, then moving him for parts that will help us less right now. The Canucks goal right now is to ice the most competitive team they can to compete for the Cup, not adding 3rd/4th line players that don't help us and marginal project prospects that will have zero impact during the team's current window.
Absolutely.

Luongo's salary & term dictates that if you're trading for him, it's to be your #1 goaltender. Nothing he does in a backup role is going to increase (or even sustain) a team's confidence in giving him that role.

I'm not suggesting his value is crap right now. I'm suggesting his value is dictated by the market, if you want to describe it as crap, that's fine. Wait longer, and you'll get worse crap or less of it.... all while accumulating future cap liability.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
How would Schneider playing more games than he did last year(or at least the equivalent in a shortened season) hurt his value?
Because his value is based on potential & upside to step out from under Luongo's shadow to elevate his game and be a #1 goaltender in this league. If he fails to do that (50/50 would be a failure), then it's one more year gone by where it was shown that Schneider wasn't good enough, and he's not exactly a young prospect at this point.


Last edited by seanlinden: 01-13-2013 at 01:03 AM.
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01-13-2013, 12:58 AM
  #283
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
so what if Luongo plays in a backup role in Vancouver (until a suitable trade is available), and he puts up a .937 sv% and a 1.96 GAA. Does that hurt his value? or do you not think it's possible for a backup in Vancouver to post those numbers?

and really if the difference is going from a 2nd rate prospect to a 3rd rate prospect by waiting to deal Luongo, then it makes all the sense in the world to wait. Not only is the difference marginal - especially for a team that has no need for 2nd or 3rd rate project prospects, but the impact that a backup can have during a shortened season is much greater than what a marginal prospect can do for us years down the road.

If we lose out on a great trade by waiting, it's a different story, but you're suggesting that his value is crap right now, and it has the "potential" to be a little worse than crap if we wait.... if that's the case, then you wait... Luongo and Schneider have both been key parts of the team winning back to back Presidents' and getting to game 7 of the finals. If all you can get in return in a 3rd/4th liner that doesn't really improve our team (as we have very good 3rd liners already), and a marginal project prospect (again no need for such assets in Vancouver), then you don't trade Luongo, you keep him for the season and look at options next off-season. Even if his value is half that crap return in the off-season, you're still better off keeping him this year and bringing back that impact that helped this team be among the elite in the league, then moving him for parts that will help us less right now. The Canucks goal right now is to ice the most competitive team they can to compete for the Cup, not adding 3rd/4th line players that don't help us and marginal project prospects that will have zero impact during the team's current window.
Very nice post NFITO - nice to have you back.

To add on, if the only improvements to our roster are 3rd/4th liners, Gillis has shown a tendency to deal mid round picks to bolster our lineup. Pahlsson, Higgins, Lapierre, Alberts were all traded for 3rds/4ths.

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01-13-2013, 01:00 AM
  #284
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Oh ya... and regardless of those numbers, he won't be a guy who's 3 games removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender when GMs are considering trading for him. He'll be a guy who's 3 games and a season removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender.
He's a world class goaltender with top 10 numbers as a starter for many years. If trading him now means taking garbage rather than risk getting worse garbage later, I'd just assume take the risk.

Garbage is garbage.

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01-13-2013, 01:02 AM
  #285
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
so what if Luongo plays in a backup role in Vancouver (until a suitable trade is available), and he puts up a .937 sv% and a 1.96 GAA. Does that hurt his value? or do you not think it's possible for a backup in Vancouver to post those numbers?

and really if the difference is going from a 2nd rate prospect to a 3rd rate prospect by waiting to deal Luongo, then it makes all the sense in the world to wait. Not only is the difference marginal - especially for a team that has no need for 2nd or 3rd rate project prospects, but the impact that a backup can have during a shortened season is much greater than what a marginal prospect can do for us years down the road.

If we lose out on a great trade by waiting, it's a different story, but you're suggesting that his value is crap right now, and it has the "potential" to be a little worse than crap if we wait.... if that's the case, then you wait... Luongo and Schneider have both been key parts of the team winning back to back Presidents' and getting to game 7 of the finals. If all you can get in return in a 3rd/4th liner that doesn't really improve our team (as we have very good 3rd liners already), and a marginal project prospect (again no need for such assets in Vancouver), then you don't trade Luongo, you keep him for the season and look at options next off-season. Even if his value is half that crap return in the off-season, you're still better off keeping him this year and bringing back that impact that helped this team be among the elite in the league, then moving him for parts that will help us less right now. The Canucks goal right now is to ice the most competitive team they can to compete for the Cup, not adding 3rd/4th line players that don't help us and marginal project prospects that will have zero impact during the team's current window.
Exactly. This is what I am trying to say.

Worst case scenario you end up with the best insurance policy for your goaltending possible..........the Canucks can always easily acquire a Bozek type player and a Kadri type prospect for very little anyway.

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01-13-2013, 01:05 AM
  #286
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you're suggesting that his value is crap right now, and it has the "potential" to be a little worse than crap if we wait


I'm getting a kick out of all these desperate souls who are praying Luongo gets traded for less than market value. Wake up folks!! Market value is market value....

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01-13-2013, 01:05 AM
  #287
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I am really desparate for hockey rumours.........I just checked hockeybuzz. Now I feel shame.

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01-13-2013, 01:05 AM
  #288
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Exactly. This is what I am trying to say.

Worst case scenario you end up with the best insurance policy for your goaltending possible..........the Canucks can always easily acquire a Bozek type player and a Kadri type prospect for very little anyway.
Yup. And Bozak can be had for free this summer.

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01-13-2013, 01:06 AM
  #289
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He's a world class goaltender with top 10 numbers as a starter for many years. If trading him now means taking garbage rather than risk getting worse garbage later, I'd just assume take the risk.

Garbage is garbage.
So we seem to have found your desired option.... let them battle this year, accumulate $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and get less for him in the offseason. Good.

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01-13-2013, 01:06 AM
  #290
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I'm getting a kick out of all these desperate souls who are praying Luongo gets traded for less than market value. Wake up folks!! Market value is market value....
I think we can all ascertain what everyone means, no?

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01-13-2013, 01:07 AM
  #291
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Of course. The market for goaltenders can increase or decrease, and is for the most part, totally out of Gillis' predictability or control. Therefore, he cannot make assumptions in regards to that one way or another.

What is in Gillis control, is the role Luongo plays, and by extension his ability to establish value in the context of goaltenders.
If there is currently no market for a goalie then Gillis can predict it will go up. If there is a large market for a goalie then Gillis can predict it will go down. Believe it or not GM's actually have some insight into the desirability of their players on the trade market.

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01-13-2013, 01:08 AM
  #292
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So we seem to have found your desired option.... let them battle this year, accumulate $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and get less for him in the offseason. Good.
Wow. Comical.

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01-13-2013, 01:09 AM
  #293
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why do you have a say? Luongo won't be going to TO
You have a say?

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01-13-2013, 01:09 AM
  #294
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so what if Luongo plays in a backup role in Vancouver (until a suitable trade is available), and he puts up a .937 sv% and a 1.96 GAA. Does that hurt his value? or do you not think it's possible for a backup in Vancouver to post those numbers?

and really if the difference is going from a 2nd rate prospect to a 3rd rate prospect by waiting to deal Luongo, then it makes all the sense in the world to wait. Not only is the difference marginal - especially for a team that has no need for 2nd or 3rd rate project prospects, but the impact that a backup can have during a shortened season is much greater than what a marginal prospect can do for us years down the road.

If we lose out on a great trade by waiting, it's a different story, but you're suggesting that his value is crap right now, and it has the "potential" to be a little worse than crap if we wait.... if that's the case, then you wait... Luongo and Schneider have both been key parts of the team winning back to back Presidents' and getting to game 7 of the finals. If all you can get in return in a 3rd/4th liner that doesn't really improve our team (as we have very good 3rd liners already), and a marginal project prospect (again no need for such assets in Vancouver), then you don't trade Luongo, you keep him for the season and look at options next off-season. Even if his value is half that crap return in the off-season, you're still better off keeping him this year and bringing back that impact that helped this team be among the elite in the league, then moving him for parts that will help us less right now. The Canucks goal right now is to ice the most competitive team they can to compete for the Cup, not adding 3rd/4th line players that don't help us and marginal project prospects that will have zero impact during the team's current window.
And if worst comes to worst in that Vancouver needs to move Luongo for salary cap reasons and we can only get scraps, you send him to the team that's either best for Luongo or hurts Vancouver the least. That would likely be Florida.

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01-13-2013, 01:10 AM
  #295
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Let's be reality, what is 5 years of elite goaltending worth?

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01-13-2013, 01:10 AM
  #296
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Oh ya... and regardless of those numbers, he won't be a guy who's 3 games removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender when GMs are considering trading for him. He'll be a guy who's 3 games and a season removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender.
This is such stupid logic. Having two goalies capable of being number one does not diminish either player in the same way having two number one centers doesn't diminish either of them.

All you do is come on here and post drivel attempting to skewer Luongo's worth in an attempt to validate trading the Canucks your garbage for one of the best goalies to ever play the game. It's pathetic. If he goes to Toronto, and that's a big if, you will be pretty disappointed in what you have to give up. When you post that he isn't worth Bozak straight up, you have zero credibility. Even your fellow fans laugh at this.

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01-13-2013, 01:11 AM
  #297
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And if worst comes to worst in that Vancouver needs to move Luongo for salary cap reasons and we can only get scraps, you send him to the team that's either best for Luongo or hurts Vancouver the least. That would likely be Florida.
If my options are scraps now or take a chance and try to inflate his value and risk getting scraps later. I go with the latter.

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01-13-2013, 01:11 AM
  #298
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If there is currently no market for a goalie then Gillis can predict it will go up. If there is a large market for a goalie then Gillis can predict it will go down. Believe it or not GM's actually have some insight into the desirability of their players on the trade market.
There certainly is a market for a goaltender. Chicago needs one, Toronto needs one, to say the least, probably a few more when you get into details.

The problem with your post is, nobody can really say whether there's a "small market for a goalie" or "large market for a goalie"... as at any time, the market can increase or decrease.

GMs absolutely understand the desirability of their players on the trade market... they don't have the ability to predict the future though, as in doing so, they impact the market today to balance the probability of it going up or down.

Quote:
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This is such stupid logic. Having two goalies capable if being number one does not diminish either player in the same way having two number one centers doesn't diminish either of them.

All you do is come on here and post drivel attempting to skewer Luongo's worth in an attempt to validate trading the Canucks your garbage for one of the best goalies to ever play the game. It's pathetic. If he goes to Toronto, and that's a big if, you will be pretty disappointed in what you have up. When you post that he isn't worth Bozak straight up, you have zero credibility. Even your fellow fans laugh at this.
Having a goalie who reduces his workload substantially decreases his value. Having a goalie who fails to live up to the potential that gave him his past value, will see decreased value.

If Bozak straight up was the deal, that would be OK from a Leaf standpoint. My point with regards to Bozak is that he's not going to be the piece. From Vancouver's perspective, he's not substantially different enough from Connolly to justify the fact that for Bozak, it would have to be straight up, for Connolly, Vancouver could satisfy some substantial future needs with Kadri+. Bozak is overvalued by the Leafs, and guys who are overvalued by their present teams generally don't get traded.

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01-13-2013, 01:13 AM
  #299
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There certainly is a market for a goaltender. Chicago needs one, Toronto needs one, to say the least, probably a few more when you get into details.

The problem with your post is, nobody can really say whether there's a "small market for a goalie" or "large market for a goalie"... as at any time, the market can increase or decrease.

GMs absolutely understand the desirability of their players on the trade market... they don't have the ability to predict the future though, as in doing so, they impact the market today to balance the probability of it going up or down.
I think I can safely assume that this would be my retort to every Luongo post you make:

"If my options are trade him for scraps now or keep him and take a chance and try to inflate his value but risk getting scraps later. I go with the latter."

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01-13-2013, 01:16 AM
  #300
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Oh ya... and regardless of those numbers, he won't be a guy who's 3 games removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender when GMs are considering trading for him. He'll be a guy who's 3 games and a season removed from being a top team's #1 goaltender.



Absolutely.

Luongo's salary & term dictates that if you're trading for him, it's to be your #1 goaltender. Nothing he does in a backup role is going to increase (or even sustain) a team's confidence in giving him that role.

I'm not suggesting his value is crap right now. I'm suggesting his value is dictated by the market, if you want to describe it as crap, that's fine. Wait longer, and you'll get worse crap or less of it.... all while accumulating future cap liability.
you're ignoring market factors here, or at least assuming they will all be negative for Vancouver.

Waiting a year also opens up other team's ability to manufacture cap space - with amnesty buyouts available next summer. It could create a much better market for Luongo. You could also see teams become more desperate for goaltending options if their current options don't work out. What happens if next summer Reimer/Screvins don't work out in Toronto? It is just as likely (if not more) that they don't develop into the answer for the Leafs, then there is that they establish themselves as solid starters for a NHL team. What happens if Markstrom's injury issues continue and he doesn't take that next step into solid NHL starter? Or Byzgalov has another terrible year in Philly? Or Jersey's goalie prospects don't show they can take over for Brodeur? Or TBay finds that Lindback is not a capable starter for a team trying to contend? Or Chicago goes another year with more question marks with Crawford? Or San Jose realizes that Niemi isn't going to be able to carry that team?

There's a long list of question marks in a lot of NHL cities with goaltending. Not all of those question marks will be answered for every one of those teams. Do you not think that given that, and the created cap flexibility that the league will make available to teams next summer, could also boost Luongo's value, regardless of what role he plays with the team this year?

I'm guessing you ignored all that, because in the Leaf's world it's just easier and more fun to assume that any player that could go there would be in the worst possible situation for the other team to trade, so it'll make everything rosy for the Leafs.

For every assumption that Luongo's value could drop if the team waits till next year, there's a legitimate argument that his value could go up by waiting. And really, if we're again going back to suggesting his value is that of a 3rd/4th liner and a 2nd rate project prospect - which is CRAP value however you look at it, then there's just no harm in waiting. Again, for a team with a Cup window now, keeping Luongo makes them a better team than getting a return which doesn't improve our lineup or gives us a better shot at Cup success NOW. Even if we miss out on that great return of marginal players, the Canucks have lost nothing really, and instead of kept the best goalie duo that has been the catalyst in back to back Presidents' trophies. They have several good 3rd/4th liners already and are loaded with 2nd rate project prospects, so if we lose out on that, so what?? There's no rush to make a trade just for the sake of making it - which is what is being suggested here by saying we should take whatever return we can for him now.

Bottom line, you trade Luongo if it improves your chances at winning the Cup now, because that's where this team is now - or if you get such a stupidly good futures package that you just can't ignore it. For players we can replace through free agency, or acquire for mid-level picks, and project prospects we just don't need, it makes much more sense to keep Luongo. Especially in a shortened season where having two top goalies will give your team a huge competitive advantage.

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