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*ALL* Luongo Talk (News/Speculation/Rumors/Proposals) ‎

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Old
01-13-2013, 01:17 AM
  #301
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
There certainly is a market for a goaltender. Chicago needs one, Toronto needs one, to say the least, probably a few more when you get into details.

The problem with your post is, nobody can really say whether there's a "small market for a goalie" or "large market for a goalie"... as at any time, the market can increase or decrease.

GMs absolutely understand the desirability of their players on the trade market... they don't have the ability to predict the future though, as in doing so, they impact the market today to balance the probability of it going up or down.



Having a goalie who reduces his workload substantially decreases his value. Having a goalie who fails to live up to the potential that gave him his past value, will see decreased value.

If Bozak straight up was the deal, that would be OK from a Leaf standpoint. My point with regards to Bozak is that he's not going to be the piece. From Vancouver's perspective, he's not substantially different enough from Connolly to justify the fact that for Bozak, it would have to be straight up, for Connolly, Vancouver could satisfy some substantial future needs with Kadri+.
This makes no sense.

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01-13-2013, 01:19 AM
  #302
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OK, because all you hear is that Schneider's the man now and they have to move Luongo. With such a compressed schedule, they are better off keeping both and then waiting to see what happens this summer.
That's a really good point. Luongo could get through this year as a backup. The Canucks could have a good season. Then deal with the goalie thing in the summer, maybe even stick with Luongo and deal Schneider depending on how the season goes.

But...

What if the Canucks have problems with two number one goalies? What if the room fragments? Nobody seems to be giving any credence to this happening because Luongo and Schneider got along so well before, but it's not like there was a serious goalie controversy in Vancouver until the playoffs. And let's remember that the Canucks blew apart in the playoffs. I know everyone's crediting the Kings for that, and they did win the Cup, but still. The Canucks were first overall, and they went out very, very meekly in the first round. It's not hard to see things going off the rails this year early on, especially with a key leader like Kesler out, and controversy blowing up around the goalie issue.

Luongo also usually starts very slow. What if Schneider has a rough stretch, too? Then the rumours start about both players having problems with the questions about who's the real number one and the team implodes. It very well could happen. It's happened a lot before. It's similar to quarterback controversies in the NFL, which never end well unless the guy unseated gets moved fast. Hard to compare it to the NHL, because generally starting goalies don't suddenly get replaced by their backups. Or when they do, the former starter is traded really fast. Like with Fuhr in Toronto way back when Potvin came on big very suddenly.

It's a risk waiting. It's a risk making a move on a Luongo trade now, too, if the offers aren't great. To me, though, it's smarter to make the deal right now and clear the air before the season starts. That way, at least it's done, and Gillis rids himself of a huge potential problem that may make him look awful if the Canucks have problems this season and wind up missing the playoffs or going out in the first round again. The Canucks need help in a few areas, and nobody ever wins by waiting around to make a deal to move such a big player like Luongo.

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01-13-2013, 01:19 AM
  #303
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
So you're proposing a 50/50 split, and by extension, expectedly hurting both goalies values?


What im saying is its not an issue. In the least.

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01-13-2013, 01:23 AM
  #304
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
you're ignoring market factors here, or at least assuming they will all be negative for Vancouver.

Waiting a year also opens up other team's ability to manufacture cap space - with amnesty buyouts available next summer. It could create a much better market for Luongo. You could also see teams become more desperate for goaltending options if their current options don't work out. What happens if next summer Reimer/Screvins don't work out in Toronto? It is just as likely (if not more) that they don't develop into the answer for the Leafs, then there is that they establish themselves as solid starters for a NHL team. What happens if Markstrom's injury issues continue and he doesn't take that next step into solid NHL starter? Or Byzgalov has another terrible year in Philly? Or Jersey's goalie prospects don't show they can take over for Brodeur? Or TBay finds that Lindback is not a capable starter for a team trying to contend? Or Chicago goes another year with more question marks with Crawford? Or San Jose realizes that Niemi isn't going to be able to carry that team?

There's a long list of question marks in a lot of NHL cities with goaltending. Not all of those question marks will be answered for every one of those teams. Do you not think that given that, and the created cap flexibility that the league will make available to teams next summer, could also boost Luongo's value, regardless of what role he plays with the team this year?

I'm guessing you ignored all that, because in the Leaf's world it's just easier and more fun to assume that any player that could go there would be in the worst possible situation for the other team to trade, so it'll make everything rosy for the Leafs.

For every assumption that Luongo's value could drop if the team waits till next year, there's a legitimate argument that his value could go up by waiting. And really, if we're again going back to suggesting his value is that of a 3rd/4th liner and a 2nd rate project prospect - which is CRAP value however you look at it, then there's just no harm in waiting. Again, for a team with a Cup window now, keeping Luongo makes them a better team than getting a return which doesn't improve our lineup or gives us a better shot at Cup success NOW. Even if we miss out on that great return of marginal players, the Canucks have lost nothing really, and instead of kept the best goalie duo that has been the catalyst in back to back Presidents' trophies. They have several good 3rd/4th liners already and are loaded with 2nd rate project prospects, so if we lose out on that, so what?? There's no rush to make a trade just for the sake of making it - which is what is being suggested here by saying we should take whatever return we can for him now.

Bottom line, you trade Luongo if it improves your chances at winning the Cup now, because that's where this team is now - or if you get such a stupidly good futures package that you just can't ignore it. For players we can replace through free agency, or acquire for mid-level picks, and project prospects we just don't need, it makes much more sense to keep Luongo. Especially in a shortened season where having two top goalies will give your team a huge competitive advantage.
I'm assuming market factors are negligible. Teams might become more desparate for goaltending help, and teams might become less desparate. None of us, Gillis, or Nonis, are in a qualified position to say with certainty which will happen.

What is certain, is that as long as Luongo's role is reduced, so will his value.

As for cap space, I wasn't factoring it in, but I'm really not sure how you can objectively think that next year is going to help that situation. On the eve of training camp, there are presently 7 teams who couldn't add Luongo (without subtracting anyone from the roster), one of which is the team he's on. The agent pool probably has less than $40m league-wide to be added for this year.

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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
This makes no sense.
Do you have any idea how a market works?

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01-13-2013, 01:23 AM
  #305
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Originally Posted by DeathToAllButMetal View Post
That's a really good point. Luongo could get through this year as a backup. The Canucks could have a good season. Then deal with the goalie thing in the summer, maybe even stick with Luongo and deal Schneider depending on how the season goes.

But...

What if the Canucks have problems with two number one goalies? What if the room fragments? Nobody seems to be giving any credence to this happening because Luongo and Schneider got along so well before, but it's not like there was a serious goalie controversy in Vancouver until the playoffs. And let's remember that the Canucks blew apart in the playoffs. I know everyone's crediting the Kings for that, and they did win the Cup, but still. The Canucks were first overall, and they went out very, very meekly in the first round. It's not hard to see things going off the rails this year early on, especially with a key leader like Kesler out, and controversy blowing up around the goalie issue.

Luongo also usually starts very slow. What if Schneider has a rough stretch, too? Then the rumours start about both players having problems with the questions about who's the real number one and the team implodes. It very well could happen. It's happened a lot before. It's similar to quarterback controversies in the NFL, which never end well unless the guy unseated gets moved fast. Hard to compare it to the NHL, because generally starting goalies don't suddenly get replaced by their backups. Or when they do, the former starter is traded really fast. Like with Fuhr in Toronto way back when Potvin came on big very suddenly.

It's a risk waiting. It's a risk making a move on a Luongo trade now, too, if the offers aren't great. To me, though, it's smarter to make the deal right now and clear the air before the season starts. That way, at least it's done, and Gillis rids himself of a huge potential problem that may make him look awful if the Canucks have problems this season and wind up missing the playoffs or going out in the first round again. The Canucks need help in a few areas, and nobody ever wins by waiting around to make a deal to move such a big player like Luongo.
The Canucks went out in round 1 as meekly as they did due to injury. Were Kesler and Daniel Sedin healthy, I really do think they would have had a shot at that series. The LA series was some of the best playoff hockey I have seen Henrik play.

If they keep Luongo and he comes back and shines, and take the #1 spot back...........then they just keep him and deal Schneider. I dont' see either having a personality whereby a platoon arrangement is going to be problematic.

As the poster that insists Luongo must be traded for scraps suggests - there are a lot of teams in the NHL in need of a top flight netminder. The Canucks have 2 of them - why give one away for nothing?

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01-13-2013, 01:26 AM
  #306
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
I'm assuming market factors are negligible. Teams might become more desparate for goaltending help, and teams might become less desparate. None of us, Gillis, or Nonis, are in a qualified position to say with certainty which will happen.

What is certain, is that as long as Luongo's role is reduced, so will his value.

As for cap space, I wasn't factoring it in, but I'm really not sure how you can objectively think that next year is going to help that situation. On the eve of training camp, there are presently 7 teams who couldn't add Luongo (without subtracting anyone from the roster), one of which is the team he's on. The agent pool probably has less than $40m league-wide to be added for this year.
But you suggest in multiple posts you know exactly what will happen. A prime example:

Originally Posted by seanlinden
So we seem to have found your desired option.... let them battle this year, accumulate $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and get less for him in the offseason. Good.

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01-13-2013, 01:31 AM
  #307
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Originally Posted by StanGrossman View Post
But you suggest in multiple posts you know exactly what will happen. A prime example:

Originally Posted by seanlinden
So we seem to have found your desired option.... let them battle this year, accumulate $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and get less for him in the offseason. Good.
Yes, I'm saying that by reducing his role, Gillis will decrease Luongo's value. It's almost shocking that you have people who don't understand this concept. It will decrease the demand for his services as teams prefer other goalies, and possibily increase the supply as Gillis is more willing to move him.

The other piece, is how the demand for & supply of other goaltenders changes, and that's unpredictable. None of us are in a position to say whether or not Toronto, or any other team, is going to be looking for goaltending with more or less urgency in the offseason.


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01-13-2013, 01:31 AM
  #308
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Luongo and Schneider have a very good supportive relationship. Luongo is a fantastic mentor and praises Cory. Cory can't say enough good things about how Luongo has helped him. They are in the same fantasy football league and talk all the time. The Canucks in general have an amazing locker room where everyone gets along very well. You can see that just from looking at them playfully chirping each other on Twitter. To think that them playing one more season together is going to create some derisive rift suggests you know nothing of the personalities and relationships of those involved.

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Old
01-13-2013, 01:32 AM
  #309
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Do you have any idea how a market works?
Haha. Yes.

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01-13-2013, 01:34 AM
  #310
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Haha. Yes.
Then you should understand that a market, at it's very definition and core, is unpredictable.

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01-13-2013, 01:35 AM
  #311
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Luongo and Schneider have a very good supportive relationship. Luongo is a fantastic mentor and praises Cory. Cory can't say enough good things about how Luongo has helped him. They are in the same fantasy football league and talk all the time. The Canucks in general have an amazing locker room where everyone gets along very well. You can see that just from looking at them playfully chirping each other on Twitter. To think that them playing one more season together is going to create some derisive rift suggests you know nothing of the personalities and relationships of those involved.

Thats all well and good but its still stupid to tie up 9.3 millions dollars on 2 starting goaltenders.

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01-13-2013, 01:37 AM
  #312
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I love the fact that Vancouver fans think that the Leafs are going to give them a top prospect plus, for a goalie who they do not want and who has a horrible contract.....yeah no!

Franson/Bozak and Kadri and that will be about it.....maybe a conditional pick if we make the playoffs....a 3rd or 4th.

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01-13-2013, 01:38 AM
  #313
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Thats all well and good but its still stupid to tie up 9.3 millions dollars on 2 starting goaltenders.

Not if you can afford it, which the Canucks can _this_ year.

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01-13-2013, 01:39 AM
  #314
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Thats all well and good but its still stupid to tie up 9.3 millions dollars on 2 starting goaltenders.
Still better than not having any starting goaltenders.

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01-13-2013, 01:39 AM
  #315
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I love the fact that Vancouver fans think that the Leafs are going to give them a top prospect plus, for a goalie who they do not want and who has a horrible contract.....yeah no!

Franson/Bozak and Kadri and that will be about it.....maybe a conditional pick if we make the playoffs....a 3rd or 4th.

Why even give up this much for a goalie you "do not want"?

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01-13-2013, 01:39 AM
  #316
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Not if you can afford it, which the Canucks can _this_ year.
Depreciating asset unless you play him....a lot.

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01-13-2013, 01:40 AM
  #317
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Not if you can afford it, which the Canucks can _this_ year.
Of course... from a cap standpoint, this year is irrelevant to all but a few teams, giving guys on 1-year deals substantially increased value.

However, realizing that they can't afford it next year, are they really best off taking a lesser package in the off-season, accumulating $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and running the risks associated with trying to dump $5.3m in salary at time when there's lots of teams trying to do the same?

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01-13-2013, 01:42 AM
  #318
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Then you should understand that a market, at it's very definition and core, is unpredictable.
Which is why if the best offer you can get does not help you, you may as well wait until it does, in order to maximize the chance that you are able to sell high.

If what Leafs fans hope is true, that Toronto is the only viable destination, then it wold be stupid to trade Luongo now as opposed to waiting until there are more interested teams. Personally I think there are more interested teams than just Toronto, which is why it won't come to keeping him long-term. But it's not like we have no choice but to trade him if the return does not help us.

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01-13-2013, 01:42 AM
  #319
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I love the fact that Vancouver fans think that the Leafs are going to give them a top prospect plus, for a goalie who they do not want and who has a horrible contract.....yeah no!

Franson/Bozak and Kadri and that will be about it.....maybe a conditional pick if we make the playoffs....a 3rd or 4th.
I find it funny that leafs fans keep saying Bozak and Kadri. I would rather keep Luongo and see the leafs fail at making the playoffs again.

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01-13-2013, 01:42 AM
  #320
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Then you should understand that a market, at it's very definition and core, is unpredictable.
But rather than acknowledge that, you state your assumptions on the future as facts.

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01-13-2013, 01:43 AM
  #321
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Then you should understand that a market, at it's very definition and core, is unpredictable.
Markets are inherently unpredictable, therefore you can never ascertain how many GM's are currently interested in upgrading their goaltending situation.

- seanlinden

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01-13-2013, 01:45 AM
  #322
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Of course... from a cap standpoint, this year is irrelevant to all but a few teams, giving guys on 1-year deals substantially increased value.

However, realizing that they can't afford it next year, are they really best off taking a lesser package in the off-season, accumulating $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and running the risks associated with trying to dump $5.3m in salary at time when there's lots of teams trying to do the same?
.... cuz no one wants to pay that much for a Top 5 NHL goaltender!!

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01-13-2013, 01:45 AM
  #323
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I find it funny that leafs fans keep saying Bozak and Kadri. I would rather keep Luongo and see the leafs fail at making the playoffs again.
Well I doubt that he is there still after the first two weeks of the season unless they are playing him.....

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01-13-2013, 01:46 AM
  #324
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I'm assuming market factors are negligible. Teams might become more desparate for goaltending help, and teams might become less desparate. None of us, Gillis, or Nonis, are in a qualified position to say with certainty which will happen.

What is certain, is that as long as Luongo's role is reduced, so will his value.

As for cap space, I wasn't factoring it in, but I'm really not sure how you can objectively think that next year is going to help that situation. On the eve of training camp, there are presently 7 teams who couldn't add Luongo (without subtracting anyone from the roster), one of which is the team he's on. The agent pool probably has less than $40m league-wide to be added for this year.

what does the position that team's are in now (on the eve of training camp) have to do with what position they'll be in next season? You do realize that there's a season and an offseason to make trades and do buyouts?

The Canucks have gone into several seasons in a row now where they apparently didn't have cap space, yet seem to be adding $4mill+ players each season. They were able to trade salary quite easily to make that fit. Philly has been over the cap for how many seasons? Didn't seem to stop them from finding ways to deal contracts and sign huge deals like Bryzgalov, or give a gigantic offer sheet to another player.

Teams have always found ways to manufacture cap space.. why would that change all of a sudden?

With that said, maybe you're right. Maybe the Canucks should just deal Luongo for a return that makes them a worse team now, even though they're trying to contend for a Cup now... who knows maybe the world ends next year and we get no return for Luongo?

Like I said before, I'd rather hold on to him and risk getting a crappier return in a year, than get a crappy return now. If the return doesn't improve the Canucks chances at a Cup this year, or gives them a substantial boast in future assets (which they can use in other trades to improve their chances this year), there's just zero point in moving him now. Absolute worst case, you just waive him next year and let him go to Columbus (there's no way he's going to pass through waivers for free - even Toronto would pick him up at just a waiver cost), while keeping him this year, when your team is playing in 7 back to back games and 48 games over a course of just 3 1/2 months.. this is a perfect scenario where 2 top goalies will have a bigger impact on a team... and that impact is likely to be considerably higher than adding some marginal 3rd/4th liner to this team.

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01-13-2013, 01:47 AM
  #325
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However, realizing that they can't afford it next year, are they really best off taking a lesser package in the off-season, accumulating $1.4m in additional future cap liability, and running the risks associated with trying to dump $5.3m in salary at time when there's lots of teams trying to do the same?
Yes, if it helps us win.

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