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Old
01-11-2013, 05:05 PM
  #826
jfb392
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I think you end up with more busts, and a weaker pipeline following that methodology.

I think if you have a good mix up high upside in the pipeline, then it's time to build your depth with some safer-side talent, that you still project to the NHL.
I think you're missing what I'm saying.

I don't like drafting guys that project to be bottom line/pairing guys and that's it.
If you draft a second liner that ends up becoming a third liner, so be it, but I don't think you go after third liners that end up becoming fourth liners.
If you're going for a 3C, for example, he has to show some sort of quality that makes it possible for him to surprise and play in a top six role someday.

No one drafts a goaltender unless they have some standout quality that makes them a possible starter in the future, whether it's athleticism, size, or technical ability.
Usually the difference between a backup and a starter is the ability to be consistent, but that's difficult to scout when they are kids.
I think the same should apply for skaters.

Quote:
I don't consider McCabe a purely "safe" pick, I think he has plenty of upside, and his growth since being drafted shows that.

At what point prior to NHL success does the player change your mind? Because, since being drafted, McCabe has only gotten better (upside).
What has he really done to improve his upside since being drafted six months ago?
He seems to be following the normal progression one would expect, really.

He's a "jack of all trades master of none" type with no real standout qualities.
There are guys like that who end up being very valuable, but there are many more that are just average.

My real issue with the pick is that they passed on players I really liked.
Damon Severson is the total package with a cannon of a shot and has been a rock for Kelowna this year and Devin Shore has stepped in and looked really good, albeit for an absolutely atrocious Maine team, but his offensive hockey sense is the real selling point for me.
The only other one I wanted that was still available was Coda Gordon, who ended up going late, likely because of his skating issues caused by him breaking his femur (which I acknowledged at the time but didn't factor in, as I wasn't privy to those type of medical details, obviously).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I don't think 3rd line centers or NHL caliber defensemen are spare parts.
Well, I don't really think Kea is a third line center.
Even if he ends up becoming one, he's still not the type of player that I'd draft because he does not possess the tools to possibly be a top sixer in the future.

Also notice that I included 3C as part of the important parts (top six + 3C).
I can't say top nine because third line wingers aren't valuable as drafted players to me.

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I'd rather draft with the entire picture in mind, the entire picture is not scorers and #1 defensemen only. Drafting scorers in the 3rd round gets you Clarke MacArthur... woohoo
Well, that's still an asset that can net you something decent.
Mac didn't get us much but since he's left he's shown that he's probably worth more than what we got (3rd+4th).

Quote:
The difference is, the good ones... aren't readily available on the market.

And they do win you games... especially in the playoffs.
Take a look at past Cup champs and you'll notice there's not many homegrown players in their bottom six forwards.

Chicago: Burish (drafted in the 9th round eight years prior), Bolland (drafted in the 2nd round six years prior), Eager (traded for Vandermeer), Fraser (rights traded six years prior), Madden (FA), Kopecky (FA),
Boston: Campbell (part of Horton trade), Kelly (traded for 2nd rounder), Paille (traded for 3rd and cond. 4th), Peverley (traded for Wheeler and Stuart), Ryder (FA), Thornton (FA)
Los Angeles: Fraser (traded as part of Smyth salary dump), Gagné (FA), King (drafted in the 4th round five years prior), Lewis (drafted in the 1st round six years prior), Richardson (traded for a 2nd years ago), Stoll (part of Visnovsky trade)

I see lots of free agents and trade pieces in there, not many homegrown.
The only player drafted by the team they won the Cup with that is anything special is Bolland.
The jury is still out on King as far as I'm concerned, but he likely ends up becoming a third liner and not a top sixer.

Ideally, I'd play the odds and let someone else do the work for me.
Anyone you develop yourself is probably going to end up contributing to the success of another organization by the time they're fully ready just because of the nature of these types of players.

Quote:
I find it odd that you believe finding a "scorer" in the 3rd round is possible, but that Kea becoming a good 3rd line defensive forward is somehow not possible... That was your draft day thoughts, and oddly enough, they haven't changed. Just like with McCabe, not even a wonderful WJC performance has changed your mind.
Well, I'd much rather have a 3C that at least has some offense.
Kea has, for the most part, never really shown anything close to offensive prowess and just does not possess offensive tools.

Quote:
I think Kea's ceiling is a 3C (not discussing whether he reaches it or not, or even the odds of him reaching it), and it is quite an important position to have in the pipeline. Or haven't you noticed that there is a hole in that area throughout the organization?
I guess it's just semantics (I don't see Kea as having a 3C ceiling, you do) and I do understand that 3C is important and an organizational weakness, but what's the ETA on Kea being a fulltime 3C at the NHL level if he has that ability?
Two years of junior, ELC in the minors (maybe more), a few years to get acclimated.. a lot more than someone you can pick up by other means.

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Old
01-11-2013, 06:48 PM
  #827
Rob Paxon
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I think I meet somewhere in the middle of these two expressed philosophies. However, in this case I like that the team wanted to take a draft and use it to load up organizationally at center+size. I have no high hopes for Kea, and though he may be a 3C, it's far from bankable. I'm with JFB in general that you want a guy who could be a top 6er but who may ultimately settle (or at least would fit in very well) as a very good and offensively-able 3rd liner (Zemgus, for example). But I don't begrudge them picking a big, defensively-able center who is never gonna bring much offensively at the NHL level.

Next draft I'd like to see them go boom or bust up and down, because if they can hit and get a very high-end talent with one of their picks, then we'd be looking at the most high-end offensive talent in the pipeline probably in my lifetime.

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01-11-2013, 07:47 PM
  #828
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Grigs having another tough night, -2 and only 2/8 on faceoffs. This is following a -1 and 5/15.

That type of play isn't getting him a roster spot.

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01-11-2013, 07:52 PM
  #829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mergus View Post
Grigs having another tough night, -2 and only 2/8 on faceoffs. This is following a -1 and 5/15.

That type of play isn't getting him a roster spot.
Not to say the faceoffs don't matter because they do, but I would almost guarantee if he makes the team he won't be taking a huge percent of his line's faceoffs. I'd expect Pommers or Ott to take a majority, assuming he'd be paired with at least one of those guys (which seems extremely likely).

Disappointing to hear he's having a bit of a rough stretch in his all-around game but it won't amount to anything if he does well in camp. Likewise if he tear it up in the games leading into camp it won't count for much if he doesn't have a great camp.

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01-11-2013, 08:10 PM
  #830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
Not to say the faceoffs don't matter because they do, but I would almost guarantee if he makes the team he won't be taking a huge percent of his line's faceoffs. I'd expect Pommers or Ott to take a majority, assuming he'd be paired with at least one of those guys (which seems extremely likely).

Disappointing to hear he's having a bit of a rough stretch in his all-around game but it won't amount to anything if he does well in camp. Likewise if he tear it up in the games leading into camp it won't count for much if he doesn't have a great camp.
Yeah not to mention traveling halfway around the world is absolute hell 5 even 10 days later.

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Old
01-11-2013, 09:29 PM
  #831
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
I think you're missing what I'm saying.

I don't like drafting guys that project to be bottom line/pairing guys and that's it.
If you draft a second liner that ends up becoming a third liner, so be it, but I don't think you go after third liners that end up becoming fourth liners.
If you're going for a 3C, for example, he has to show some sort of quality that makes it possible for him to surprise and play in a top six role someday
i consider playing a 200 ft game at 18 years old, and having the body of a 24 year old to be a quality that is hard to find.


Quote:
What has he really done to improve his upside since being drafted six months ago?
He seems to be following the normal progression one would expect, really.

He's a "jack of all trades master of none" type with no real standout qualities.
There are guys like that who end up being very valuable, but there are many more that are just average.

My real issue with the pick is that they passed on players I really liked.
Damon Severson is the total package with a cannon of a shot and has been a rock for Kelowna this year and Devin Shore has stepped in and looked really good, albeit for an absolutely atrocious Maine team, but his offensive hockey sense is the real selling point for me.
The only other one I wanted that was still available was Coda Gordon, who ended up going late, likely because of his skating issues caused by him breaking his femur (which I acknowledged at the time but didn't factor in, as I wasn't privy to those type of medical details, obviously).
What has he done since being drafted? Gimme a break... if we drafted a guy you liked, and he went and captained WJC Gold team i'm sure you would consider it "doing something"

I understand, the real issue is they chose someone over the guy you really liked. I get it. I'll always have a chip on my shoulder towards Pysyk, when Etem was one of my favorite players that year.


Quote:
Well, I don't really think Kea is a third line center.
Even if he ends up becoming one, he's still not the type of player that I'd draft because he does not possess the tools to possibly be a top sixer in the future.
So, you'd prefer to draft a potential top 6 player who busts over a low ceiling 3rd liner who plays in the NHL? sounds pretty dumbstupid to me

Quote:
Well, I'd much rather have a 3C that at least has some offense.
Kea has, for the most part, never really shown anything close to offensive prowess and just does not possess offensive tools.
sounds like you are talking about 2011-12 Kea.

Similar to McCabe, it seems you are committed to remaining steadfast in your opinion from last season.

Quote:
I guess it's just semantics (I don't see Kea as having a 3C ceiling, you do) and I do understand that 3C is important and an organizational weakness, but what's the ETA on Kea being a fulltime 3C at the NHL level if he has that ability?
Two years of junior, ELC in the minors (maybe more), a few years to get acclimated.. a lot more than someone you can pick up by other means.
It's not semantics. It's continual evaluation.

the real difference, is i prefer drafting to be based on building a franchise, and you prefer drafting to be taking as many "Scorer/top 6/top pairing/top 4" players as possible, and letting all the other roles be filled by free agents, trades, and scoring prospects who never became scorers.

PS Kea is playing the game I expected to see from Faksa this year... better than Faksa himself

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Old
01-12-2013, 10:25 AM
  #832
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I've seen Kea play live. He is an excellent penalty killer. Let me restate that "He is and excellent penalty killer." His size and reach allows him to move his stick and take away passing lanes particularly at the point, thus upsetting the other teams flow and ability to cycle on the PP. Hell he had a beautiful breakout pass that lead to a SH goal (yes he got the primary assist). His skating is much better than I had anticipated and he showed some skill and flair with the puck. I had originally forgotten that he was on the opposing team when the game started but he made his presence known very early and often. People call him a better skating Gaustad? Honestly I can see that although he has to work on faceoffs and grow into his body so he can be more physical. I like the pick.

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01-13-2013, 04:04 PM
  #833
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Kea continued his hot streak with another solid outing (1+1, +3) on Saturday, this time in a 5-2 win against league-leading London.

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01-13-2013, 04:37 PM
  #834
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Does Armia come over to play in Rochester next season?

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01-13-2013, 04:41 PM
  #835
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Originally Posted by Gorgeous George View Post
Does Armia come over to play in Rochester next season?
Yep. He should, anyways.

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Old
01-13-2013, 05:14 PM
  #836
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Originally Posted by Gorgeous George View Post
Does Armia come over to play in Rochester next season?
This season he will be in ROC or Buff once his season ends.

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Old
01-13-2013, 05:15 PM
  #837
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Originally Posted by Gorgeous George View Post
Does Armia come over to play in Rochester next season?
Depending on how deep the Amerks go in the playoffs this year (provided they make them), Armia could be a black ace in Rochester before summer starts.

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01-13-2013, 05:34 PM
  #838
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Kea is only getting better. I definitely was not happy with the pick at the time because he never really progressed in the OHL in his first two seasons. I really hope we can make him into a prototypical 3C who can put the puck in the net the odd game.

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01-13-2013, 06:10 PM
  #839
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Originally Posted by couture23 View Post
Kea is only getting better. I definitely was not happy with the pick at the time because he never really progressed in the OHL in his first two seasons. I really hope we can make him into a prototypical 3C who can put the puck in the net the odd game.
Kea was a bad pick because no matter how much he's progressed he's not the guy I wanted (in the 3rd round no less) so he was a wasted pick.

Serious note, anytime I player progresses as much as him it's wonderful to see. That's all you can ask for in a project. The Sabres obviously had connections and did their due diligence in the Kea pick. Players can improve at enormous rates if they're hard workers, ask Marcus Foligno.


Last edited by Moskau: 01-13-2013 at 06:22 PM.
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Old
01-16-2013, 09:34 AM
  #840
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Buffalo Sabres prospect Justin Kea living up to billing with Saginaw Spirit:
Quote:
“Right from Day 1 this year, he knew how he had to play,” Spirit coach Greg Gilbert said. “And he’s been outstanding for us all year.”

At 6-foot-4, 206 pounds, Kea is a physical presence who has also developed a scoring touch.
Quote:
“I have a lot more experience, and being drafted has given me a lot of confidence,” Kea said.

“He’s got to be a force out there, and he’s playing like a force out there,” Gilbert said. “He’s doing a much better job at all the little things, and he’s finishing off more opportunities offensively.

“It’s showing up in his point totals, but also his ice time. He’s playing in every situation, and it’s a credit to him for understanding how the game needs to be played.”
Quote:
“It’s always got to be a part of his game,” Gilbert said. “There’s no question. There aren’t many players his size who play a perimeter game anymore.

“He’s not an outspoken guy a lot of times, but he epitomizes how we want to play.”

And the Spirit recognized that play by naming Kea an assistant captain, following the trade of former captain Vince Trocheck, during a hot streak that has seen Saginaw win five straight games to move above .500 and inch closer towards third place in the OHL’s West Division.

“I just have a lot more confidence,” Kea said. “And Coach Gilbert has helped me out a lot. He’s been there and done that, so you respect him and everything he has to say.”

“He’s just got to keep going,” said Gilbert, a three-time Stanley Cup champion with the New York Islanders and Rangers. “He’s having a great year, and I know Buffalo is really happy with his progress.

“And he’s only going to get better.”

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01-19-2013, 01:18 AM
  #841
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Could you guys give me some info on Zemgus Girgensons?

How far out do you think he is from making the NHL?

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01-19-2013, 06:37 AM
  #842
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Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Could you guys give me some info on Zemgus Girgensons?

How far out do you think he is from making the NHL?
Girgensons currently is out of the line up with another concussion (at least 2 this year).

He has been brought along slowly, mostly on the third line. He has played physical, good along boards and defensively. Hadn't found his offense game. He has played wing.

Before his injury he was moved up to one of the top two lines (lockout over!), and started to assert himself more offensively (had his first 2 point game Jan. 11), also getting some PP time.

My opinion is that he will spend at least another season in the AHL. Will the Sabres move him to center next year?

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Old
01-19-2013, 10:34 AM
  #843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Could you guys give me some info on Zemgus Girgensons?

How far out do you think he is from making the NHL?
I'd say about a year. If he progresses decently, he could be a call-up option next season, though I definitely don't see him making the roster out of camp until 14-15. He plays with a lot of energy, but takes at least as much as he gives and will need to learn to be smarter about that so he doesn't get injured so often. His offensive game also didn't immediately gel at the pro level, so that will need time as well.
Hopefully he recovers quickly from his concussion, so he can get back in the line-up soon for Rochester.

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Old
01-22-2013, 06:47 AM
  #844
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About Joel Armia. Ässät's season will most likely end in mid March(~15.). AHL season continues over a month after that+playoffs. Is there any rules to be considered about Armia's possibility of playing in AHL after the season in Finland is over?

And about his future with Buffalo organisation. I think he isn't ready for NHL next season. I've watched nearly all of his games this season and 3/4 of his all games in FEL. He has developed every year, but just seems that he cant make the difference on the ice regardless of the development. This season has been very bad for him and for the team: 11+6 in 31 games is nothing people were expecting.

I watched Sabres opening match and cant really find a spot for him. Armia needs to be playing top 6 role with PP-time or he is useless. U seem to have very hard working team with lots of speed and aim towards the net. Armia has superb skills but he is not a work horse and never will be. Im afraid that Ruff tries to chain his game too much.

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01-22-2013, 08:10 AM
  #845
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeitung View Post
About Joel Armia. Ässät's season will most likely end in mid March(~15.). AHL season continues over a month after that+playoffs. Is there any rules to be considered about Armia's possibility of playing in AHL after the season in Finland is over?

And about his future with Buffalo organisation. I think he isn't ready for NHL next season. I've watched nearly all of his games this season and 3/4 of his all games in FEL. He has developed every year, but just seems that he cant make the difference on the ice regardless of the development. This season has been very bad for him and for the team: 11+6 in 31 games is nothing people were expecting.

I watched Sabres opening match and cant really find a spot for him. Armia needs to be playing top 6 role with PP-time or he is useless. U seem to have very hard working team with lots of speed and aim towards the net. Armia has superb skills but he is not a work horse and never will be. Im afraid that Ruff tries to chain his game too much.
1.) Since his contract with Assat is up, once his season ends he is free to play with Rochester if the Sabres want him to.

2.) The Sabres will find Armia a spot in the top 6 when he's ready. No worries there.

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01-22-2013, 08:33 AM
  #846
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeitung View Post
About Joel Armia. Ässät's season will most likely end in mid March(~15.). AHL season continues over a month after that+playoffs. Is there any rules to be considered about Armia's possibility of playing in AHL after the season in Finland is over?

And about his future with Buffalo organisation. I think he isn't ready for NHL next season. I've watched nearly all of his games this season and 3/4 of his all games in FEL. He has developed every year, but just seems that he cant make the difference on the ice regardless of the development. This season has been very bad for him and for the team: 11+6 in 31 games is nothing people were expecting.

I watched Sabres opening match and cant really find a spot for him. Armia needs to be playing top 6 role with PP-time or he is useless. U seem to have very hard working team with lots of speed and aim towards the net. Armia has superb skills but he is not a work horse and never will be. Im afraid that Ruff tries to chain his game too much.
I hope they trade him while his value is high. I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but I don't ever see him panning out. I think he tops out as a fringe 2nd liner, a la, the general. He isn't the kind of player that makes you a championship team, he is a guy who eats up cap space, puts up a few points, but doesn't live up to his contract.

Just my two cents.

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01-22-2013, 08:35 AM
  #847
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Originally Posted by Mergus View Post
I hope they trade him while his value is high. I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but I don't ever see him panning out. I think he tops out as a fringe 2nd liner, a la, the general. He isn't the kind of player that makes you a championship team, he is a guy who eats up cap space, puts up a few points, but doesn't live up to his contract.

Just my two cents.
It's a realistic notion, a lot of Finnish posters say that he is being coddled too much and plays best when he's challenged by the coach, Ruff will give him plenty of that.

As for the type of player that doesn't make you a championship team, he plays best in big games, people will say he had a disappointing WJC which I agree with because I expected him to completely dominate, but he showed up in the elimination game and it seems to be a recurring theme for Armia to score big goals for his team.

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01-22-2013, 09:20 AM
  #848
Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mergus View Post
I hope they trade him while his value is high. I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but I don't ever see him panning out. I think he tops out as a fringe 2nd liner, a la, the general. He isn't the kind of player that makes you a championship team, he is a guy who eats up cap space, puts up a few points, but doesn't live up to his contract.

Just my two cents.

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01-22-2013, 09:48 AM
  #849
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What do you need help with Jame?

I think the kid has bust written all over him. I think the vast majority of sabres fans are wayyyyyyyy over hyping the kid. I hope they do the same thing they did with Kassian. Realize he isn't what they hoped he'd be and trade him before he loses too much value.

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01-22-2013, 10:30 AM
  #850
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mergus View Post
What do you need help with Jame?

I think the kid has bust written all over him. I think the vast majority of sabres fans are wayyyyyyyy over hyping the kid. I hope they do the same thing they did with Kassian. Realize he isn't what they hoped he'd be and trade him before he loses too much value.
I understand your position on Armia. It is a gut feeling more than anything, correct? Just about any player can be a bust when drafted. Premature to judge Armia. Other than prospect camp, a bit of world juniors and highlights, I have not had enough opportunity to judge him.

Likewise, it is too early to even accurately make that statement about Kassian. That being said, if you can use an asset to make your team better, I have no issue.

Sabres will need some skilled scoring on the wing sooner than later. Vanek will break down. Armia will hopefully be set to begin to replace that.

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