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Phil Kessel

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Old
01-13-2013, 06:59 PM
  #101
Habsawce
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I doubt Minny would trade Granlund since he's pegged into the 2C hole for this season. But if they were willing to move him for Kessel some salary would have to be going back as well.

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01-13-2013, 07:00 PM
  #102
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Why do people think Phil is going to Minnesota just because he was born there? They don't have the money to sign him after signing Suter/Parise. They have some really nice prospects they'll have to sign up in the future.

They're not going to replace Heatley's deal with Phil's. They have other concerns.

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01-13-2013, 07:01 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Yeah so was Kovalchuk's. And Heatley's when he was still thought of as capable rebounding to 40-50 goal form. Hint hint.
if he's traded it won't be for garbage he will get a real return or he will be signed

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01-13-2013, 07:04 PM
  #104
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if he's traded it won't be for garbage he will get a real return or he will be signed
If you're trading Kessel, it's to a playoff team that has no interest in shedding roster players. Your best bet is one blue chip player and as many draft picks as you can suck out of them. Then win or lose by the scouting staff. If the first from Hossa's deal wasn't leveille but Carlson, Harmonic or Stepan, maybe that deal doesn't go down as garbage.

Unless it's a trade where Kessel is guaranteed to resign with the receiving team a la Staal. Then you might get prime assets. Someone suggested Nashville, but Suter is no longer there and I imagine he was a big part of the draw.

Resigning Kessel is nice and all, but it takes two to sign on the dotted line and a couple pages ago I outlined quite a few reasons that I could see have him withhold his signature.

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01-13-2013, 07:06 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by JVReemer View Post
To the first bolded, you aren't even close tbh. Think top prospect and a 1st, or Top prospect, mid prospect and a 2nd. We aren't interested in roster players unless under the age of 23. My interest from the wild would be Granlund and a 1st for Kess, even that I feel is generous. A ppg winger still elevating his play for a likely 2nd line center and a late 1st.

To the second bolded, I find that quite surprising. I also get the impression that you have pretty much never actually watched Jake. It's not about his stat line, it's more about the way he can control a game if all goes well. He is a unique player with a much higher value than Dumba.
First - let me say I am a Phil Kessel fan. I like him a lot, love his game, would love him on my team. I'm not trashing him.

Look to what I said about James Neal. He was traded, along with another player, for Alex Goligoski. No draft picks involved. I would say that Mike Richards is another comparable player. He was traded for Wayne Simmonds and a top prospect (Brayden Schenn).

If you want to equate Setoguchi to Simmonds and then add a prospect or a first round pick, that would be fair as well.

If you put the homerism aside, you have to just look at the recent market for good young forwards (Neal and Richards) when trying to figure out Kessel's value, which will also include a new expensive contract.

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01-13-2013, 07:08 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by RogerRoeper View Post
Why do people think Phil is going to Minnesota just because he was born there? They don't have the money to sign him after signing Suter/Parise. They have some really nice prospects they'll have to sign up in the future.

They're not going to replace Heatley's deal with Phil's. They have other concerns.
Heatley
Cullen
Backstrom
Bouchard
Mitchell
Gilbert if he craps the bed

That's 27 million worth of salary that could be replaced with 1/3 as much with effective GMing. They'd easily be able to afford Kessel if they wanted to. Also his style fits with Parise and Koivu too well for them not to at least give it thought.

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01-13-2013, 07:08 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by JVReemer View Post

To the second bolded, I find that quite surprising. I also get the impression that you have pretty much never actually watched Jake. It's not about his stat line, it's more about the way he can control a game if all goes well. He is a unique player with a much higher value than Dumba.
Not trashing Gardiner either - a solid young d-man who has shown great flashes and should have a bright future. But if you compare him to other guys his age, say, 21-23 years-olds in the NHL, he is not even in the 15.

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Old
01-13-2013, 07:08 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Heatley
Cullen
Backstrom
Bouchard
Mitchell
Gilbert if he craps the bed

That's 27 million worth of salary that could be replaced with 1/3 as much with effective GMing. They'd easily be able to afford Kessel if they wanted to. Also his style fits with Parise and Koivu too well for them not to at least give it thought.
They won't want to add another massive deal. Kessel will look for a big 7 year deal.

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01-13-2013, 07:10 PM
  #109
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I personally think St. Louis is the best pure fit for Kessel along with Phoenix.

I made a proposal with St. Louis:

Vladimir Sobotka
Vladimir Tarasenko/Jaden Schwartz
1st Round Pick 2013

From Phoenix it would absolutely have to be OEL. If Phoenix wants to keep OEL then

Brandon Gormley
Mikkel Boedker
2nd '13

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01-13-2013, 07:10 PM
  #110
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The deal for richards and the deal for Neal is considerably different.


But Neal is a good comparison , Kessel is better but how much better?

Both are one dimensional, Neal does have the benefit of playing with malkin however.

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01-13-2013, 07:13 PM
  #111
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I don't get this line of thinking.

Leafs suck!
*Hire a new GM*
Trade our best player to... Rebuild!!!
Maybe we can draft the next Kessel!

Let's just say I would not even move him for anything less than three times his actual value. Hell, we need an exciting player on this roster, someone to make this team less crappy.



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Old
01-13-2013, 07:14 PM
  #112
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Neal had a career high .705 PPG at that point.

Kessel? PPG playing with Bozak.

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01-13-2013, 07:16 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
The deal for richards and the deal for Neal is considerably different.


But Neal is a good comparison , Kessel is better but how much better?

Both are one dimensional, Neal does have the benefit of playing with malkin however.
Kessel got 82 points playing with Bozak as his centre, while Neal got around the same playing with Malkin.

What do you think the numbers would be if they switched spots?

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01-13-2013, 07:16 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Volcanologist View Post
Kessel got 82 points playing with Bozak as his centre, while Neal got around the same playing with Malkin.

What do you think the numbers would be if they switched spots?
Exactly. They were in polar opposite situations.

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01-13-2013, 07:18 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badger Mayhew View Post
Neal had a career high .705 PPG at that point.

Kessel? PPG playing with Bozak.
Kessel is better than Neal but not as good as (and doesn't have the cap friendly contract of) Mike Richards. So looking at those two deals I think a first and a solid young player is fair value.

No team is going to trade a guy they picked in the top 10 who they think is a franchise guy for Kessel

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01-13-2013, 07:19 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by RogerRoeper View Post
They won't want to add another massive deal. Kessel will look for a big 7 year deal.
If they think it can push them over the hump they won't give it a second thought. They didn't spend 196 million on Parise and Suter to play conservative in a situation that could get them a cup.

Parise Koivu Kessel (7yr 50 mil)
Coyle Granlund Setoguchi
Bulmer Brodziak Clutterbuck
3 million dollar 4th line

Suter Gilbert
Brodin Dumba
Scandella Falk

4 million dollar goalie
Harding

1.5 million for 7th D/13th F

That's about a 64 million dollar team, right around the cap for next summer. And they can still cut the fat from Gilbert, a million from the 4th line, perhaps get a 2-3 million dollar starter or Hackett at entry level money. There's tons of ways for it to happen.

Maybe they decide Kessel's style doesn't fit them, that's about all I can see.

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01-13-2013, 07:19 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
I really don't see Kessel extending in Toronto unless they take advantage of the 8 year resigning contract and give him a ton of money.

What do they offer him that other teams can't easily top?

-No more Burke (assuming him and Kessel were BFFs)
-Played with mostly scrubs whole time here
-Team finishing low every year
-Media pressure/high pressure market (he seems more comfortable in low pressure settings)
But he played with Savard and Lucic in Boston and it made no difference as he forced his way out. I don't think he cares.

But he was on a Bruins team that was on the verge of becoming elite and it made no difference and he forced his way out. I don't think he cares.

Media - fine. But I think the only other team in the league that puts as little pressure on their players to actually perform on the ice and win games is The Oil. Even the Isle stand up for themselves and hated Rolston. The organization and the fans seem to defend to the death every mediocre player that dons a Leaf sweater. One of the reasons they've sucked for so long. I don't think he cares as he goes the way of the rest of the team.

Although I would add Carlyle to your list. More Julien like and might ask him to hit the weight room and then he'll force his way out.

I think it all depends on whether he thinks he can get $7M and the Leafs are only offering $6.85M - he'll leave.

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01-13-2013, 07:20 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by IHeartZherdev View Post
Kessel is better than Neal but not as good as (and doesn't have the cap friendly contract of) Mike Richards. So looking at those two deals I think a first and a solid young player is fair value.

No team is going to trade a guy they picked in the top 10 who they think is a franchise guy for Kessel
Richards cap hit is higher than Kessel's.

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01-13-2013, 07:25 PM
  #119
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But he played with Savard and Lucic in Boston and it made no difference as he forced his way out. I don't think he cares.

But he was on a Bruins team that was on the verge of becoming elite and it made no difference and he forced his way out. I don't think he cares.

Media - fine. But I think the only other team in the league that puts as little pressure on their players to actually perform on the ice and win games is The Oil. Even the Isle stand up for themselves and hated Rolston. The organization and the fans seem to defend to the death every mediocre player that dons a Leaf sweater. One of the reasons they've sucked for so long. I don't think he cares as he goes the way of the rest of the team.

Although I would add Carlyle to your list. More Julien like and might ask him to hit the weight room and then he'll force his way out.

I think it all depends on whether he thinks he can get $7M and the Leafs are only offering $6.85M - he'll leave.
I'd imagine he cares. Chiarelli was being a huge hard ass about money and Kessel hated Julien. It probably came down to money first, Julien 2nd. Toronto was really his only way out and he took it.

Next summer he has 30 ways out. All he needs is a team willing to offer him as much as Toronto with a coach who isn't Hitchcock or Julien and the rest become tiebreakers in the consideration.

I think it comes down to Toronto convincing him this summer to take 8x56 and not risk injuries/bad play waiting until UFA. My prediction is if he's not signed by next fall he tests FA at the very least.

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01-13-2013, 07:26 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by RogerRoeper View Post
Richards cap hit is higher than Kessel's.
Are you serious? He is a UFA after next season. After which, his cap hit will go way up.

That means IF he were to be traded, and a team gave up significant assets for him, they would have to sign him to an extension - which is something a team will consider when trading for him. Given his age and production he would absolutely command a deal well over $6 million a year. When LA trading for Richards they knew they had him long term at 5.7, if someone were to trade for Kessel they'd have to do a new deal.

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01-13-2013, 07:34 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
I'd imagine he cares. Chiarelli was being a huge hard ass about money and Kessel hated Julien. It probably came down to money first, Julien 2nd. Toronto was really his only way out and he took it.

Next summer he has 30 ways out. All he needs is a team willing to offer him as much as Toronto with a coach who isn't Hitchcock or Julien and the rest become tiebreakers in the consideration.

I think it comes down to Toronto convincing him this summer to take 8x56 and not risk injuries/bad play waiting until UFA. My prediction is if he's not signed by next fall he tests FA at the very least.
No one can though.

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01-13-2013, 07:36 PM
  #122
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No one can though.
I suppose, but maybe even without the extra year he considers it close enough. If money's all that concerns him then Toronto keeps him as long as they're generous.

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01-13-2013, 08:24 PM
  #123
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We need to keep Kessel.

But if we trade him, Couturier would be the guy I'd want. If Flyers would not do the trade, I'd want a guy like Ryan O'Reilly. A young all-around center to build around would be my target.

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01-13-2013, 08:25 PM
  #124
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With St.louis getting older, TB may want a longterm setup man / co-threat to play Stamkos.

Their prospect pool might not be deep enough to make a realistic trade proposal... I like Vasilevski and Connolly, but goalie prospects are fickle and Connolly isnt a good enough centre piece for a deal.

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01-13-2013, 08:33 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IHeartZherdev View Post
Kessel is better than Neal but not as good as (and doesn't have the cap friendly contract of) Mike Richards. So looking at those two deals I think a first and a solid young player is fair value.

No team is going to trade a guy they picked in the top 10 who they think is a franchise guy for Kessel
I don't agree that Kessel us better than Neal.

Kessel is a better sniper, but there are other parts to the game than just points. Size, toughness, good on the cycle and great drive to the net. He is built more for the playoffs as well. Kessel is all finesse. Add in the chemistry he has already developed with Malkin. I'd keep Neal over Kessel without thinking twice.

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