That was a good read. Thank you. Quite informative.
Surprised Subban is that good at PK (or at least his defensive pairing is). My opinion of Subban went up a fair bit today. I am not 100% believer in Corsi but they are helpful and a useful indicator.
Though I still stand by Smith vs. Subban is a hard trade for either side. I cant see detroit adding any significant value with those types of players. For example even if Det added a 1st it would not be enough for MTL. And Det probably would rather see what Smith can do.
I think you will be surprised by Smith. He went .5ppg in 14 games last season from the bottom of our lineup. (2nd pp 2nd/3rd pair). One of the best +- on the team in that stretch.
Glad you liked the article, I wrote it as a resource for discussions like this.
On the subject of Subban's PK work. When making an assesement we are fortunate that we can compare him against two teammates (Gorges and Gill) who have results that are historically in the upper quartile of penalty kill defensemen and who both widely seen as very good with the man-disadvantage.
Both clearly preformed better with Subban than without him even with each other. I'd imagine there was a degree of synergy there, video review shows how they held the most important areas of the ice around the goal mouth on the kill while Subban's job was to attack the opposition. But probably the biggest thing was that Subban is phenomenal at vacuuming up lose pucks and transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone. This leads to far less offensive zone time for the opposition to attempt to set up a scoring play. Which is a big reason Subban is so effective on the kill despite not resembling your traditional PK stud like a Hal Gill, a big positional defender that holds the net. Subban excels at "active" defense, which reduces the requirement for that kind of "passive" defense.
You can see the effectiveness of various pairings here:
If a trade were to really go down, I think Smith+Nyquist would cut it for Subban. Detroit gives their best forward prospect and their best D prospect for a #1D. Maybe detroit adds a 2nd, but thats just me.