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Draft day: Couturier to MTL for Seth Jones

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Old
01-15-2013, 10:17 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Shrimper View Post
Couturier is overrated by some in my books. He's a good third line center and has a bit of physicality about him but I think Montreal would much rather keep Seth Jones if they were to draft him.
Yes because 19 year olds that play full seasons in the NHL rarely ever progress past the benchmark set by themselves in their rookie season... People really need to stop applying this logic to their own players while neglecting it when it doesn't apply to players they're defending.

So I guess if Seth jones comes in and plays on the 3rd pairing in his rookie season somewhere, we can just assume he won't ever be more than a 3rd pairing defenseman. Ok got it!

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01-15-2013, 10:25 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by StarsFan74 View Post
No room for Jones and Subban? I know your statement is hypothetical, but that kind of reasoning is ridiculous. Did STL think MacInnis and Pronger had no business being together in the same squad?

I don't see Jones and Subban complimenting each other the way Mac and Pronger did...also MTL has lacked size up front/down the middle, and it doesn't hurt that Couturier is French-Canadian...but yeah, from my perspective Philly is all over this but MTL has to think long and hard about it. I think MTL might get better mileage from having a great 1-2 punch at center than from having 2 rh puck moving type #1 defenders...just my humble opinion.

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01-15-2013, 10:41 AM
  #103
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He was born in Arizona and grew up in Bathurst, New Brunswick although I've already seen a number of Habs fans assume he's Québécois because of the name.

I'd take Jones all day, every day over Couturier and that's not meant as a slight against Couturier at all... Jones has everything you want in a defenseman.

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01-15-2013, 10:46 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Sundinisagod View Post
I don't see Jones and Subban complimenting each other the way Mac and Pronger did...also MTL has lacked size up front/down the middle, and it doesn't hurt that Couturier is French-Canadian...but yeah, from my perspective Philly is all over this but MTL has to think long and hard about it. I think MTL might get better mileage from having a great 1-2 punch at center than from having 2 rh puck moving type #1 defenders...just my humble opinion.
The word is "complementing," and what evidence points to them not complementing each other? What are you basing this on? And what makes you think they cannot buy into a system that makes them work as a unit? Also, does it occur to you that they don't have to play on the same line?

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01-15-2013, 10:49 AM
  #105
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Be tough having two right handed defensemen playing together. One guy would have to play on his weak side.

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01-15-2013, 10:53 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
I like Seth Jones, but I wouldn't trade Couturier for him. Couturier has played a year in the NHL and has shown to be an effective shutdown center plus 13 goals in his rookie year as a fourth liner is nothing to sneeze at. Seth Jones could be another Pronger or Doughty or he could be another Bouwmeester or Erik Johnson. Defensemen are so hard to judge that you might get the best one in round two as opposed the 2nd overall pick.
I agree; some of the draft positions of the top modern defensemen:

Chara - 56th
Karlsson - 15th
Weber - 49th
Suter - 7th
Lidstrom - 53rd
Doughty - 2nd
Pietro - 4th

Then you have:
J Bo - 3rd
Steve Eminger - 12th

And I could continue to go through drafts; a lot easier to find the ones that didn't live up to the hype than the premier blueliners. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush; Couturier is definitely a bird in the hand at this point.

I see the Flyers making some moves around other good players like Simmonds for one or two solid guys on the backend. Holmgren seems to be like a bear trap on Couturier.

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01-15-2013, 10:59 AM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StarsFan74 View Post
The word is "complementing," and what evidence points to them not complementing each other? What are you basing this on? And what makes you think they cannot buy into a system that makes them work as a unit? Also, does it occur to you that they don't have to play on the same line?
Thanks for the English lesson.

If I was looking for an ideal partner for either, it would be a more cerebral type who's LH. I think they're both too good for the 2nd pairing. It's just my humble opinion that MTL would be better served with 2 high end centers than a couple of rh pm #1 defenders.

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01-15-2013, 11:03 AM
  #108
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2nd line center or 1st d-man?

Seth Jones for me. I wont trade the Flyers a Stud for a 50-65pts centerman.

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01-15-2013, 11:13 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by SnapVirus View Post
2nd line center or 1st d-man?

Seth Jones for me. I wont trade the Flyers a Stud for a 50-65pts centerman.
I don't know why this logic permeates this site.

These are young developing players, as it has been said numerous times in this thread alone if you are labeling Jones, who for Christ sake isn't even drafted yet, a #1 d, isn't it a bit narrow-minded to call Couturier a #2?

I have no problem at all with you not wanting to trade the potential of Jones for Couturier, but I don't see how your comparing Jones' ceiling and not Couturier's.

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01-15-2013, 11:19 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by JohnEDrama View Post
I don't know why this logic permeates this site.

These are young developing players, as it has been said numerous times in this thread alone if you are labeling Jones, who for Christ sake isn't even drafted yet, a #1 d, isn't it a bit narrow-minded to call Couturier a #2?

I have no problem at all with you not wanting to trade the potential of Jones for Couturier, but I don't see how your comparing Jones' ceiling and not Couturier's.
I think it is pretty well established on this site that, in general,

Undrafted prospects > drafted prospects > young NHL players > established NHL players.

Thus, a year before his draft, when Couturier was in contention (or leading) for the #1 overall pick, he was Eric Staal. When he was drafted, he was Jordan Staal. Now, he's something between Jordan Staal and Martin Hanzal. There might be reasons for all those comparisons--and more--but I don't understand how his presumed stock has fallen since 2011, given his success.

Anyway, on this deal, I suspect the Flyers would pass. They take too much risk--the bust-rate of high-end D is simply too high, and the Flyers are hardly known for developing defensemen. Could Jones be a franchise-caliber 1D? Yes. But if the Flyers were willing to part with Couturier, I suspect they could secure a young top-pairing D who is far more proven.

(All that said, I'm not sure why MTL would do it either, with Galchenyuk, Eller, Leblanc, etc. in the system).

Just my $.02. It certainly isn't a horrible proposal value wise. But there are too many variables and question marks.

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01-15-2013, 11:23 AM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
I think it is pretty well established on this site that, in general,

Undrafted prospects > drafted prospects > young NHL players > established NHL players.

Thus, a year before his draft, when Couturier was in contention (or leading) for the #1 overall pick, he was Eric Staal. When he was drafted, he was Jordan Staal. Now, he's something between Jordan Staal and Martin Hanzal.
This is hilariously accurate.

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01-15-2013, 11:28 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Sundinisagod View Post
Thanks for the English lesson.

If I was looking for an ideal partner for either, it would be a more cerebral type who's LH. I think they're both too good for the 2nd pairing. It's just my humble opinion that MTL would be better served with 2 high end centers than a couple of rh pm #1 defenders.
Again: There's no evidence, as of now, that points to them not complementing each other ala MacInnis and Pronger. Players can develop skills to complement each other.

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01-15-2013, 11:40 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
I think it is pretty well established on this site that, in general,

Undrafted prospects > drafted prospects > young NHL players > established NHL players.

Thus, a year before his draft, when Couturier was in contention (or leading) for the #1 overall pick, he was Eric Staal. When he was drafted, he was Jordan Staal. Now, he's something between Jordan Staal and Martin Hanzal. There might be reasons for all those comparisons--and more--but I don't understand how his presumed stock has fallen since 2011, given his success.


Anyway, on this deal, I suspect the Flyers would pass. They take too much risk--the bust-rate of high-end D is simply too high, and the Flyers are hardly known for developing defensemen. Could Jones be a franchise-caliber 1D? Yes. But if the Flyers were willing to part with Couturier, I suspect they could secure a young top-pairing D who is far more proven.

(All that said, I'm not sure why MTL would do it either, with Galchenyuk, Eller, Leblanc, etc. in the system).

Just my $.02. It certainly isn't a horrible proposal value wise. But there are too many variables and question marks.


Love this post. Especially the highlighted portion!

Jones or Couturier.....that is the question. IMHO, I'd go with Jones.


Couturier getting more icetime, and following a regular progression...he'll be a solid #2 C and could round out into C who can slot in as a #1 in a pinch (and he'll be a 60-80 pt per season player guaranteed).

I know MTL is deep at D prospects, but a big, physical puck mover who can play 30 mins a game. This kid has the potential to play a similar style to Pronger. We all know how a player like that can change a team's fortunes.

Now you'd have Jones on the ice for 30+ mins a game and Subban for 30+ mins a game. Your top 4 just got better as you have at least one stud dman on the ice at any given time. add in solid support in the form of Gorges, Emelin, Markov (if he's ever healthy) and up and comers Beaulieu, Tinordi and to a lesser extent Thrower and Ellis and yopu have the makings of a really solid core to help Price.


All that said, I don't see the Habs getting a top 3 pick this season...maybe a top 10 if they repeat their miserable season from last year.....but I don't think so.

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01-15-2013, 11:42 AM
  #114
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Darnell Nurse for philly and keep sean.

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01-15-2013, 11:42 AM
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Ummmm,so what you are saying is that the scouts know absolutely nothing when it comes to d men. What about the recent examples of first round d men becoming studs (doughty, headman, karlsson, Ek-Lars, gardener) and what about examples of star forwards drafted late (daysyuk, zetterberg)
Warning math ahead.....I am not saying the scouts know nothing. I am talking about where the percentage of studs are found at each position in the draft. The heavy percentage of high end forwards in the nhl are drafted in the top of the draft. Look at the top ten last year as an example:

Malkin-2 Stamkos-1 Giroux-22 Spezza-2 Kovalchuk-1 Kessel 5 Neal-33 Tavares-1 H.Sedin-3 Elias-51.

That's 8 taken in round 1, with 7 of those in the top 5. That is a small sample size, but even as you go down the ranks a heavy portion of scoring forwards come within the top half of the 1st rd and very few outside of rd 1. Besides Neal and Elias, only 7 more forwards out of the top 30 scoring forwards last year were not picked in rd 1 (I included Ray Whitney as a 1st rd pick since he was picked 23 overall pack when there where under 23 teams). So that's 21 out of 30 1st rd picks with only two of those 1st rounders coming after pick 14 in Giroux and Eberle. So that is 19 out 30 coming from spots in the draft for those teams who have missed the playoffs.

Now look at defensemen. Only 2 of the top 10 scorers for defensemen last year were taken in the 1st rd, Karlsson and Pieteragelo. Expand it to 30 and it is only 14 in the 1st rd. If you want to look as ice time to include top end defensive defenseman, only 9 of the top 30 dmen for ice time last year we're taken in the 1st round. So anyway you look at it you have greater than 50% chance of finding a top end defenseman after rd 1 no matter what metric you use where as you only have about a 33% chance of finding a top end scoring after the 1st 14 picks of rd one. So you have a top 10 pick, it is better to draft a scoring forward versus a defensemen because there is a better chance of finding a great defensemen after round one than there is of finding a great forward.

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01-15-2013, 11:44 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Beendair Donedat View Post
Be tough having two right handed defensemen playing together. One guy would have to play on his weak side.
Two LH defensemen play together almost all the time- Chara and Seidenberg, Lidstrom and Kronwall, Hatcher and Matvichuk, etc., and I've not this weak side issue being that much of a problem. IIRC, RH d-men, Blake and Boyle played together in SJ, and currently Burns and Boyle, play together too.

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01-15-2013, 12:00 PM
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Again: There's no evidence, as of now, that points to them not complementing each other ala MacInnis and Pronger. Players can develop skills to complement each other.
Yeah, I can't give you any evidence that they won't complement each other well...just as you can't give any evidence that they will. On paper it's not an ideal pairing...in reality who knows.

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01-15-2013, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundinisagod View Post
Let's say on draft day 2013 MTL is holding the 3rd overall spot, and they are coveting a big, 2-way center to compliment Galchenyuk. Mackinnon and Barkov go 1-2, and MTL feels there is no room for both Jones and Subban on their d. They'd like the 2-way presence Couturier brings, amongst other intangibles. I know that the value is there, but does either side make this trade?
I don't get the idea of their being no room for Subban and Jones on the Habs defense.

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01-15-2013, 12:05 PM
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I don't get the idea of their being no room for Subban and Jones on the Habs defense.
Perhaps "no room" wasn't a perfect choice of words...I just think they might be better off with 2 high end centers than 2 rh pm #1 d-men.

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01-15-2013, 12:25 PM
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Eller is a big two way center that complements Galchenyuk. If we get the chance to draft Seth Jones we'll keep him, thank you very much! Screams of terror would echo troughout the league for a decade if we ever ice something like prime Jones, Subban and Tinordi as our top 3 on defense.

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01-15-2013, 12:35 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Warning math ahead.....I am not saying the scouts know nothing. I am talking about where the percentage of studs are found at each position in the draft. The heavy percentage of high end forwards in the nhl are drafted in the top of the draft. Look at the top ten last year as an example:

Malkin-2 Stamkos-1 Giroux-22 Spezza-2 Kovalchuk-1 Kessel 5 Neal-33 Tavares-1 H.Sedin-3 Elias-51.

That's 8 taken in round 1, with 7 of those in the top 5. That is a small sample size, but even as you go down the ranks a heavy portion of scoring forwards come within the top half of the 1st rd and very few outside of rd 1. Besides Neal and Elias, only 7 more forwards out of the top 30 scoring forwards last year were not picked in rd 1 (I included Ray Whitney as a 1st rd pick since he was picked 23 overall pack when there where under 23 teams). So that's 21 out of 30 1st rd picks with only two of those 1st rounders coming after pick 14 in Giroux and Eberle. So that is 19 out 30 coming from spots in the draft for those teams who have missed the playoffs.

Now look at defensemen. Only 2 of the top 10 scorers for defensemen last year were taken in the 1st rd, Karlsson and Pieteragelo. Expand it to 30 and it is only 14 in the 1st rd. If you want to look as ice time to include top end defensive defenseman, only 9 of the top 30 dmen for ice time last year we're taken in the 1st round. So anyway you look at it you have greater than 50% chance of finding a top end defenseman after rd 1 no matter what metric you use where as you only have about a 33% chance of finding a top end scoring after the 1st 14 picks of rd one. So you have a top 10 pick, it is better to draft a scoring forward versus a defensemen because there is a better chance of finding a great defensemen after round one than there is of finding a great forward.
Nice bit of digging for the truth. But people are still going to Seth is a #1 D man and Couts is a #2 C at best. No truth at all to this, but that is what they will say.

In fact, I will go even further. In the past 20 years, here are the D-Men to go 1st overall...where Jones is currently ranked:
Hamrlik
Jovanovski
Berard
Phillips
E.Johnson
Do these names scream DOMINATE #1 D-MAN???
It is just 20 years of proof showing that D-man are SO VERY hard to predict. But I am sure Seth is different right

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01-15-2013, 12:38 PM
  #122
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He was born in Arizona and grew up in Bathurst, New Brunswick although I've already seen a number of Habs fans assume he's Québécois because of the name.

I'd take Jones all day, every day over Couturier and that's not meant as a slight against Couturier at all... Jones has everything you want in a defenseman.
He's still francophone. He speaks French and his dad is québécois.

Claude Giroux also is not québécois but he's still francophone.

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01-15-2013, 12:56 PM
  #123
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I dont think MON will be in the top 3 to tell yu the truth. But they have to keep that possible franchise dman. Keep him in the CHL for one more year suck out again draft your top 6 fwd and MON will be set.

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01-15-2013, 01:02 PM
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I like Seth Jones, but I wouldn't trade Couturier for him. Couturier has played a year in the NHL and has shown to be an effective shutdown center plus 13 goals in his rookie year as a fourth liner is nothing to sneeze at. Seth Jones could be another Pronger or Doughty or he could be another Bouwmeester or Erik Johnson. Defensemen are so hard to judge that you might get the best one in round two as opposed the 2nd overall pick.
I'd take Johnson over Couturier.

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01-15-2013, 01:03 PM
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Yeah, I can't give you any evidence that they won't complement each other well...just as you can't give any evidence that they will. On paper it's not an ideal pairing...in reality who knows.
Let's try this again, shall we?

You stated the claim that they won't complement each other- on paper, reality, etc. etc., does not matter- without any evidence backing your claim. In essence, by stating they're not an ideal pairing, or won't complement each other, etc. etc., you're making a positive statement for which you need to provide evidence.

Mine is not a positive statement. My statement is simply a rejection of your position based on lack of evidence. That's it.

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