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Old
01-16-2013, 10:12 AM
  #51
RandyHolt
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Ovi's production was indeed fine last year, and finished strong. I think even Hunters biggest critics were amazed Ovi finished among the league leaders in goals, despite no ENGs, limited TOI, Nick out for a few months, a largely lame PP, and really no back end production (Green etc). All in a mega turtle system.

My bold prediction, Ovi is among the league leaders again this year.

In assists.

Or, lets just say he exceeds your expectations in that regard.

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01-16-2013, 10:49 AM
  #52
Stewie G
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Ovi's production was indeed fine last year, and finished strong. I think even Hunters biggest critics were amazed Ovi finished among the league leaders in goals, despite no ENGs, limited TOI, Nick out for a few months, a largely lame PP, and really no back end production (Green etc). All in a mega turtle system.

My bold prediction, Ovi is among the league leaders again this year.

In assists.

Or, lets just say he exceeds your expectations in that regard.
Not knocking your predicition, I'm just curious who you think is going to be turning those assists into goals. Backstrom/MoJo at ES or a big uptick in PP points perhaps? Back in the good 'ol days he was top 10 in PP helpers so there is room for growth there if the PP can get going again.

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Old
01-16-2013, 11:01 AM
  #53
RandyHolt
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
Not knocking your predicition, I'm just curious who you think is going to be turning those assists into goals. Backstrom/MoJo at ES or a big uptick in PP points perhaps? Back in the good 'ol days he was top 10 in PP helpers so there is room for growth there if the PP can get going again.
Probably the same guys from 2010-2011, his first year where his assists far outpaced his goals.

I do expect his swede linemates to get plenty of chances to shoot. Green and Carlson should be looking to shoot if early indicators are accurate. They will be standing right behind him on nearly every rush, not an easy pass first in at LW.

1G 3A+ yesterday is meaningless against an ECHL team, but then again, maybe it isn't.

Its more about what I feel is where he wants to improve his game. Anyone can score with great passing. Warren Young had 40 taps in playing with Pepe.

Ovi wants to be more creative. While he can dazzle us with new some slick stick handling or shots, it may be easier to be more creative by passing. Oates Mr Assist himself should be encouraging better passing overall, as well.

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01-16-2013, 11:33 AM
  #54
Stewie G
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Probably the same guys from 2010-2011, his first year where his assists far outpaced his goals.

I do expect his swede linemates to get plenty of chances to shoot. Green and Carlson should be looking to shoot if early indicators are accurate. They will be standing right behind him on nearly every rush, not an easy pass first in at LW.

1G 3A+ yesterday is meaningless against an ECHL team, but then again, maybe it isn't.

Its more about what I feel is where he wants to improve his game. Anyone can score with great passing. Warren Young had 40 taps in playing with Pepe.

Ovi wants to be more creative. While he can dazzle us with new some slick stick handling or shots, it may be easier to be more creative by passing. Oates Mr Assist himself should be encouraging better passing overall, as well.
Not to be ignored is the fact that that year is the first time that his assists far outpaced his goals and that last year he swung drastically back the other direction. It should also be noted that 3 of the other top 4 goal scorers at both ES and on the PP from that season are now gone.

I'd also argue that Ovechkin with a high assist/goal ratio is a less valuable player, especially on a team that has a number of question marks at wing. I'm all for switching up Alex's spot on the ice, but if the end result is a guy who is more of a distributer, I don't know if they're that much further ahead.

I know points are points and he can stand to round out his game, but I think the Caps are worse off if that 2010 season is more of a norm going forward than last year.

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01-16-2013, 11:49 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Ovi's production was indeed fine last year, and finished strong. I think even Hunters biggest critics were amazed Ovi finished among the league leaders in goals, despite no ENGs, limited TOI, Nick out for a few months, a largely lame PP, and really no back end production (Green etc). All in a mega turtle system.

My bold prediction, Ovi is among the league leaders again this year.

In assists.

Or, lets just say he exceeds your expectations in that regard.
He finished well, but I remembered correctly... he was stopped for much of the season.

Here's a piece posted December 8th, 2011:

http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/20...down-ovechkin/

At this point, he'd played 14 home games, and potted "1" goal... with no game winners.

Whether we place the blame on the league figuring him out, or on AO for a slow-start due to being out of shape (many point to this), it doesn't matter: if this happens again this season, with the shortened season, we may not be able to fix the problem.


Thread pre-req: I'd love to predict a change in his game: he starts playing a 2-way game.

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Old
01-16-2013, 11:51 AM
  #56
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Ovi was one dimensional, leading the league in shots with ease for years. But that well went dry. He was forced to adjust and did ok.

As long as a goal is produced, its hard to find fault. While he's paid to score goals, he is also paid to lead our offense. It's very much a team game and I think he is on the program more than ever after Dale neutered him.

Nothing spells "team" like passing up a goal to settle for an assist.

While i see your point about distributing, a goal scoring winger should also know when to pass the puck when being overly played to shoot. Quite frankly that part of his game didn't seem well developed. His passes were awesome, or ugly. He has improved a lot.

Ribiero should log a bunch of assists eating into the teams totals. But it may also lead to a lot more team wide quality passing that I think has been oddly absent from what was a high skill team.

But its a bold prediction thread, so I am just rolling with a hunch.

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01-16-2013, 12:51 PM
  #57
Stewie G
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Ovi was one dimensional, leading the league in shots with ease for years. But that well went dry. He was forced to adjust and did ok.

As long as a goal is produced, its hard to find fault. While he's paid to score goals, he is also paid to lead our offense. It's very much a team game and I think he is on the program more than ever after Dale neutered him.

Nothing spells "team" like passing up a goal to settle for an assist.

While i see your point about distributing, a goal scoring winger should also know when to pass the puck when being overly played to shoot. Quite frankly that part of his game didn't seem well developed. His passes were awesome, or ugly. He has improved a lot.

Ribiero should log a bunch of assists eating into the teams totals. But it may also lead to a lot more team wide quality passing that I think has been oddly absent from what was a high skill team.

But its a bold prediction thread, so I am just rolling with a hunch.
I'm rolling with your hunch and trying to flesh it out a little.

Again, I get that a point is a point, but if you're being paid $10M, I want to see more G than A (or at the least an even split) or else the value is getting out of whack, especially as the cap drops. In 2 years, he will be eating about 1/6 of the cap. 35 goals and 60 assists are great numbers, but not $10M numbers in my book.

All that said, if teams are playing him to shoot and he is forced to be more of a passer, so be it. In that case, they're going to need finishers on the cheap to help offset what I see as diminished value.

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01-16-2013, 01:01 PM
  #58
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Ovie having a new added threat will force defenders to play the pass rather then zoning in on shuting down Ovie It should open up more space to get clean shots off.

Its not like Ovechkin is going to turn into Nylander and skate in circles untill mojo is open backdoor

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01-16-2013, 01:06 PM
  #59
RandyHolt
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
I'm rolling with your hunch and trying to flesh it out a little.

Again, I get that a point is a point, but if you're being paid $10M, I want to see more G than A (or at the least an even split) or else the value is getting out of whack, especially as the cap drops. In 2 years, he will be eating about 1/6 of the cap. 35 goals and 60 assists are great numbers, but not $10M numbers in my book.

All that said, if teams are playing him to shoot and he is forced to be more of a passer, so be it. In that case, they're going to need finishers on the cheap to help offset what I see as diminished value.
As long as Ovi is not going out of his way to pass during his best chances, I think we will be ok if he ends up with more A than G. Do what comes naturally, but also have the head up if someone has a better shot.

I just get the sense he is more cerebral than ever, wanting to change positions only adds to it. He is getting older and learning more, and has been forced to adjust during some tough times.

I actually think MJ and Nick have decent shots. They just seem to have that look to pass first tag Swedes sometimes get. Carlson Green and Orlov should be looking to shoot.

Scoring as the 3rd wheel on a line (MJ) is often just going to the right spot and putting your stick down on the ice.

I think with my bold prediction, I should also say MJ scores at a 30G pace 17G 25A

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01-16-2013, 01:36 PM
  #60
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Entire team has a bounceback year. Green and Ovechkin return to form and we win the Cup. Bold enough?

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01-16-2013, 01:53 PM
  #61
RandyHolt
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
Entire team has a bounceback year. Green and Ovechkin return to form and we win the Cup. Bold enough?
I predicted the same and have placed my wager.

Without even trying to score a kid in net wideman sarge escapades, we were one goal away from the ECF.

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01-16-2013, 01:55 PM
  #62
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Caps start poorly and firesale, publicly announcing they're happy to wait on Fors/Kuz.

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01-16-2013, 02:01 PM
  #63
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Caps start poorly and firesale, publicly announcing they're happy to wait on Fors/Kuz.
The darkside of the force is strong with you, heh.

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01-16-2013, 02:14 PM
  #64
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Oates brings a very defensive system. ZZZ It starts with ft. PKer Ovi, and goes down hill from there.

Also, Oates is a chatter box and the players have to tell Laich to tell him to shut up.

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01-16-2013, 03:09 PM
  #65
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if ov is going to play rw, by its nature his shooting angles will be worse and his shooting chances will be fewer. it does open him up for better passing options.

if the 1st line is johansson or laich and backstrom with 8 on the rw, you turn your best shooter into a passer and hope the lesser shooters can finish.

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01-16-2013, 03:19 PM
  #66
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Why not give a prediction on the move to RW? There is no if, unless he keeps trucking poor MJ.

While his shooting angles will be worse, the goalie will be in a much worse position to defend any pass. Hugging the goal post, versus sitting at the top of the crease. There will be a trade off on the worse shooting angle, including scrambling to get into place on rebounds.

Shooting chances should remain the same, but I think the teams quality scoring chances will go up.

The goalie now has to move much more as he skates in, keep the angle proper.

He will be facing less double and triple teams on the rush, another trade off. Book it Danno.

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01-17-2013, 09:27 PM
  #67
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Hard to say with this new system and plenty of squad changes from last year. I still think we'll make the playoffs finishing 5th/6th in the conference. Out in the first round though after 7 game series.

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01-17-2013, 09:38 PM
  #68
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Ovi wins the goal scoring title.
holtby will win at least 25 games.
green will score 40 points.

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01-17-2013, 09:52 PM
  #69
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Caps win the cup, starting a dynasty that leads to 4 cups in the next 6 years.

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01-17-2013, 09:54 PM
  #70
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Ovechkin regains the title of best player in the NHL.
Crosby never hits 80 points again.

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01-17-2013, 09:57 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Roughing View Post
Caps start poorly and firesale, publicly announcing they're happy to wait on Fors/Kuz.
I'd love to see this assuming it's like what Tampa had last deadline and Flyers had last offseason.

Get rid of the square pegs (looking at Greenie), get players who fit the plan and go into the post lockout era with everyone on the same page and strength at every position.

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01-17-2013, 10:00 PM
  #72
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GMGM adds a name forward.

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01-17-2013, 10:36 PM
  #73
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Jeff Schultz has an okay year.

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01-18-2013, 09:57 AM
  #74
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Jeff Schultz has an okay year.
So you're predicting a massive improvement then.

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Old
01-18-2013, 10:27 AM
  #75
RandyHolt
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Quote:
Katie Carrera ‏@kcarrera
GM George McPhee said it’s possible Tom Poti plays Saturday
I am going opposite George this year. I thus predict Poti will not play Saturday.

Quote:
Katie Carrera ‏@kcarrera
From our season preview, GM George McPhee on Alex Ovechkin: “There seems to be a new maturity there
Ovi is a man. I am convinced men generally do not mature.

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