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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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Old
01-15-2013, 07:11 AM
  #901
Montreal4Life
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
One positive that I see is that more people are receptive to the idea of a rebuild. It didn't used to be this way, there were a few of us and then everyone else. Now it seems to be a more even split. Maybe not completely even, but a lot better than it was.

Nice to see that some people can learn from past mistakes.
And its not like we are starting our rebuild at 0. Most teams that do a rebuild don`t have the likes of Price, Subban, Gally, Max, plus some promise in the minors. Once we get rid of a few contracts and surround our core with talented veterans (emphasis on talented), we are going to start doing some serious damage in this league

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01-15-2013, 08:32 AM
  #902
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I think Montreal will make the playoffs this season and will probably make it to the second round in the east, but for the future, I really see:

Pacioretty - Galchenyuk - Collberg as the top line!

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01-15-2013, 10:00 AM
  #903
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
For every MaxPac there is a Terry Ryan, unfortunately.
No, there is not. Modern scouting and a bigger player pool in the NHL(expansion) have made the first round of the draft a lot more surefire. Go see the number of top 5 bust in the 90s vs the 20ks and you will understand how your statement is misinformed.

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01-15-2013, 08:19 PM
  #904
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I am in favour of rebuilding, but I'm not in favour of deliberately throwing games.

If Bergevin doesn't sign Subban due to his hallucinations that Subban should receive 3 million/year for 2 years, the Habs this year are going to be so unbelievably bad. Some posters may believe that last year's team was bad, but if you remove Subban this year's team is going to be far, far worse. I think having the worst overall NHL team out of not just this season, but several seasons, would be in the card.

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Old
01-16-2013, 08:56 AM
  #905
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
You are living the myth.

The Habs did not tank last year. They sucked at hockey because they had an idiot coach who was finally and thankfully fired.

They sucked at hockey because they had a GM who was incapable of building a hockey team to play in the "modern" NHL.

The legacy of inept management (think Boivin) has people like you actually believing in the myth of tanking.

Instead, wake up to reality and understand that the Montreal Canadiens have been a franchise (led by the marketing whiz Pierre Boivin) that placed its priorities on selling the brand and marketing instead of what the Montreal Canadiens were at one time.......a hockey franchise that excelled.

Boivin is gone. So are the lackeys who were a disgrace to this organization. Finally, after so many years, Geoff Molson has come to the realization that the reason the Canadiens made so much money was for the hockey that they played, not the marketing of the name.

So dream on about the myth of tanking. For that is all that it is. It is your inability to come to the realization that this team has been woefully left behind by franchises with brilliant hockey minds running their organizations. And it is your inability to admit the failure that Gainey and Gauthier were as GMs.
Once again, wins the prize for missing the entire point of the thread, and recognizing the merit of the arguments therein. Sorry to pick on you man, but really, you just are not keeping up with the class here.

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Old
01-16-2013, 05:53 PM
  #906
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For every MaxPac there is a Terry Ryan, unfortunately.
Right, so let's trade away all our 1st round picks then... Obviously 1st round picks never turn into anything.

And btw, our scouting has been great. More often than not we've gotten quality players out of the first round despite the fact that we've drafted mid to late rounds.

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01-16-2013, 05:55 PM
  #907
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Originally Posted by Montreal4Life View Post
And its not like we are starting our rebuild at 0. Most teams that do a rebuild don`t have the likes of Price, Subban, Gally, Max, plus some promise in the minors. Once we get rid of a few contracts and surround our core with talented veterans (emphasis on talented), we are going to start doing some serious damage in this league
Yup. We've got an interesting core going forward. I personally don't think we're quite there yet but it's a great start. Pacman, PK, Price, Galchenyuk is a really nice core to build with. Add in one more elite propsect and we're in great shape going forward. Hell, we might be in great shape anyway.

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No, there is not. Modern scouting and a bigger player pool in the NHL(expansion) have made the first round of the draft a lot more surefire. Go see the number of top 5 bust in the 90s vs the 20ks and you will understand how your statement is misinformed.
This.

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Old
01-16-2013, 08:25 PM
  #908
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Right, so let's trade away all our 1st round picks then... Obviously 1st round picks never turn into anything.

And btw, our scouting has been great. More often than not we've gotten quality players out of the first round despite the fact that we've drafted mid to late rounds.
Yes, because that's what I said. Can we not have an honest debate without resorting to these types of straw-man arguments?

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01-16-2013, 08:28 PM
  #909
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No, there is not. Modern scouting and a bigger player pool in the NHL(expansion) have made the first round of the draft a lot more surefire. Go see the number of top 5 bust in the 90s vs the 20ks and you will understand how your statement is misinformed.
Scouting has improved, no doubt about it, but we generally don't pick in the top 5. There are still plenty of busts in the first round every year. Many don't make it, in fact, most don't.

Who is misinformed?

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01-16-2013, 08:30 PM
  #910
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I am in favour of rebuilding, but I'm not in favour of deliberately throwing games.

If Bergevin doesn't sign Subban due to his hallucinations that Subban should receive 3 million/year for 2 years, the Habs this year are going to be so unbelievably bad. Some posters may believe that last year's team was bad, but if you remove Subban this year's team is going to be far, far worse. I think having the worst overall NHL team out of not just this season, but several seasons, would be in the card.
Then change the title of this thread.

Tanking is deliberately throwing games.

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01-16-2013, 08:36 PM
  #911
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To me, the word "tanking" is a bit of a distraction. Perhaps "not worrying about winning now, and being willing to trade wins now for value in the near future" is a more nuanced description of the way I hope the Habs approach this season. We need to protect Price and Subban, obvious targets in a violent league. We need to build a culture that hates losing and wants to win. But, let's face it. The team finished last in the east for a reason. Change bad luck to good luck and you still don't have close to the team that LA took into the playoffs last year. Meanwhile you have a new coach and GM, a last-place team facing maybe the lowest expectations in my lifetime (45 years) and what seems possibly to be an amazing handful of prospects up for the draft next year. And instead of suffering through 82 games of sucktitude to get one, the price of a top five pick is only 48 games this time around. Our core group of young talent are going to be in their primes for more than enough years to play with Galchenyuk and, say, a Seth Jones. If you don't get him in the draft, he ain't coming on the market any time soon.

I can't watch the team and enjoy a loss, quite the opposite. Don't get me wrong, but this isn't about being Edmonton or about how losing teams often stay in the basement. The Habs are in a fairly unique situation. The time to lose is now.

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Old
01-16-2013, 08:38 PM
  #912
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Scouting has improved, no doubt about it, but we generally don't pick in the top 5. There are still plenty of busts in the first round every year. Many don't make it, in fact, most don't.

Who is misinformed?
Are you saying most top 5 picks don't make it?

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Old
01-16-2013, 09:00 PM
  #913
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tell you what...

if we don't settle this Subban thing, and fast, then the tank will be on in montreal this season whether we like it or not.

Markov (assuming he doesn't spend 1/2 the 1/2 season on IR)
Gorges
Emelin
Kaberle
Diaz
Weber
Bouillion
St-Denis

that right there would give Price nightmares all season long


Last edited by Miller Time: 01-16-2013 at 10:41 PM.
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Old
01-16-2013, 09:10 PM
  #914
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
tell you what...

if we don't settle this Subban thing, and fast, then the tank will be on in montreal this season whether we like it or not.

Markov (assuming he doesn't spend 1/2 the 1/2 season on IR)
Gorges
Kaberle
Diaz
Weber
Bouillion
St-Denis

that right there would give Price nightmares all season long
Missing emelin out there. We has worst defence corp last year (we were bad!)

no excuse, play to win. to plan on losing buy selling away cole plekanec etc. ... win win win! that's the spirit!

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Old
01-16-2013, 09:13 PM
  #915
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Just hoping lo "tankers" get any habs management job. That what I think!

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Old
01-16-2013, 09:16 PM
  #916
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Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
To me, the word "tanking" is a bit of a distraction. Perhaps "not worrying about winning now, and being willing to trade wins now for value in the near future" is a more nuanced description of the way I hope the Habs approach this season. We need to protect Price and Subban, obvious targets in a violent league. We need to build a culture that hates losing and wants to win. But, let's face it. The team finished last in the east for a reason. Change bad luck to good luck and you still don't have close to the team that LA took into the playoffs last year. Meanwhile you have a new coach and GM, a last-place team facing maybe the lowest expectations in my lifetime (45 years) and what seems possibly to be an amazing handful of prospects up for the draft next year. And instead of suffering through 82 games of sucktitude to get one, the price of a top five pick is only 48 games this time around. Our core group of young talent are going to be in their primes for more than enough years to play with Galchenyuk and, say, a Seth Jones. If you don't get him in the draft, he ain't coming on the market any time soon.

I can't watch the team and enjoy a loss, quite the opposite. Don't get me wrong, but this isn't about being Edmonton or about how losing teams often stay in the basement. The Habs are in a fairly unique situation. The time to lose is now.
I believe the same thing. We only have to watch the Habs having a bad half-season and we could land the final piece to get us to cup contention. Montreal is not like some team who start their rebuilding with nothing. We have a STRONG core. Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gorges, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Collberg, Gallagher, Eller. Those are players most struggling teams doesn't. A least we have a elite goalie. Add to date a lot of talent and potential. And we even have good depth players coming from our farm system (White, Diaz, Weber, Dumont, Bournival, Bozon, Hudon, Leblanc, Kristo, Vail, Ellis, Bennett, Thrower) that will allow us to put our money on UFA and our top players.

If can get a elite prospect or 2 (whenever the position) will would have every thing in place to become cup contender when Price get in his prime. Because we have to admit that's our closest window to contention: when Carey hits 27 years old to 32.

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Old
01-16-2013, 09:29 PM
  #917
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Are you saying most top 5 picks don't make it?
No, why would I say that?

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01-16-2013, 11:12 PM
  #918
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Yes, because that's what I said. Can we not have an honest debate without resorting to these types of straw-man arguments?
For every Max Pac there's a Terry Ryan is not an honest argument.

Go look at how we've done in the 1st round. We've done very well under Timmins dude.

Quote:
Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Scouting has improved, no doubt about it, but we generally don't pick in the top 5. There are still plenty of busts in the first round every year. Many don't make it, in fact, most don't.

Who is misinformed?
You are.

Top five picks are obviously great but we generally get good players in the first round. Not stars but good players.

If we're going to deal away our vets we should probalby go after other teams' prospects. Barring that go for 1st rounders...

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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
Then change the title of this thread.

Tanking is deliberately throwing games.
Thread title is dumb. Nobody here can change the thread... if you feel strongly about it ask a mod.

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Old
01-17-2013, 05:02 AM
  #919
habsfanatics
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
For every Max Pac there's a Terry Ryan is not an honest argument.

Go look at how we've done in the 1st round. We've done very well under Timmins dude.


You are.

Top five picks are obviously great but we generally get good players in the first round. Not stars but good players.

If we're going to deal away our vets we should probalby go after other teams' prospects. Barring that go for 1st rounders...


Thread title is dumb. Nobody here can change the thread... if you feel strongly about it ask a mod.
Timmins along with every Amateur Scout in hockey misses frequently in the first round. Many make it, but to limited roles. We drafted 2 or 3 very good players in the first round. One was a top 5. I never said top 5's typically bust. I said many 1st rounders don't ever reach the ability of the players you are trading for them.

You are completely out of touch with reality.

Lets trade Markov for a 1st rounder who is unlikely to ever be as good as Markov is right now or ever. Makes sense. While we're at it. We should trade pleks for another, in hopes that said pick turns out to be as good as pleks; however unlikely that may be.

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01-17-2013, 06:47 AM
  #920
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Timmins along with every Amateur Scout in hockey misses frequently in the first round. Many make it, but to limited roles. We drafted 2 or 3 very good players in the first round. One was a top 5. I never said top 5's typically bust. I said many 1st rounders don't ever reach the ability of the players you are trading for them.

You are completely out of touch with reality.

Lets trade Markov for a 1st rounder who is unlikely to ever be as good as Markov is right now or ever. Makes sense. While we're at it. We should trade pleks for another, in hopes that said pick turns out to be as good as pleks; however unlikely that may be.
As good as Plekanec and Markov are right now, it doesn't matter as we're not winning the cup this year.

What we need are good players for the 2015-2018 stanley cup window.

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01-17-2013, 07:34 AM
  #921
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Timmins along with every Amateur Scout in hockey misses frequently in the first round. Many make it, but to limited roles. We drafted 2 or 3 very good players in the first round. One was a top 5. I never said top 5's typically bust. I said many 1st rounders don't ever reach the ability of the players you are trading for them.

You are completely out of touch with reality.
Go look at our draft record in the first round. We usually draft mid to late and still come up with good players. No you probably won't get a superstar but you could draft a McD/MaxPac/Higgins/Komisarek type guy pretty easily.

Morevover, you can trade for prospects and that's what we should really be looking at doing.
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Lets trade Markov for a 1st rounder who is unlikely to ever be as good as Markov is right now or ever. Makes sense.
If we could get a 1st for Markov we should be all over it. Markov is in his mid 30s and we're never going to win a damn thing with him. He's still good enough to help a contender win but three years from now he's not going to be worth squat. Meanwhile if you draft a kid who's 18 now, he's going to be as good or better than Markov is three years from now + he has his whole career ahead of him. Added bonus: You get to have him for cheap for the first few years of his career.

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While we're at it. We should trade pleks for another, in hopes that said pick turns out to be as good as pleks; however unlikely that may be.
Again, by the time this team would turn into a contender Pleks is past his prime (he's probably already past it actually) and we're not going to win anything with him. Unlike Markov he's younger so the return should be higher. We should be looking to deal him for a prospect.

Seriously, what does hanging onto him do for us? Sure he's a good player but so what? We're not winning now anyways and we're wasting him here.

Pleks, Markov, Cole... we should be looking at dealing any/all these guys and just get on with building for the future. All of them would provide good returns and we could accelerate the rebuild.

I doubt it will happen but it should.

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01-17-2013, 08:00 AM
  #922
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Let's say hypothetically we trade Plekanec, Markov, and Cole, for three 1st rounders, leaving aside the fact that we could probably do better on the trade market.

We're not getting Max Pacioretty 3 times, and we're not getting Terry Ryan 3 times. Looking at the Timmins-era 1st rounders, we'd get:

Andrei Kostitsyn, 10th overall
Kyle Chipchura, 18th overall
Carey Price, 5th overall
David Fischer, 20th Overall
Ryan McDonagh, 12th overall
Max Pacioretty, 22nd overall

Louis Leblanc, 18th overall
Jarrod Tinordi, 22nd overall
Nathan Beaulieu, 17th overall
Alex Galchenyuk, 3rd overall

Out of the six players for which we have had enough time to evaluate, we see three fantastic NHLers (50%) who are on par with Plekanec,Cole, and Markov; a 2nd liner who is a step down (Andrei Kostitsyn) and two busts (Fischer and Chipchura).

Thus, if we trade Plekanec, Cole, and Markov, the most likely outcome is to get 2 NHLers, either 2 very good ones or one very good one and one decent one, with one bust. That's a decent return. We'll also have cleared 15.25 million worth of cap space, giving us the means to make noise on the UFA market and upgrade. And again, this leaves aside the fact that I think we could do better than 3 1st rounders.

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01-17-2013, 11:28 AM
  #923
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Let's say hypothetically we trade Plekanec, Markov, and Cole, for three 1st rounders, leaving aside the fact that we could probably do better on the trade market.

We're not getting Max Pacioretty 3 times, and we're not getting Terry Ryan 3 times. Looking at the Timmins-era 1st rounders, we'd get:

Andrei Kostitsyn, 10th overall
Kyle Chipchura, 18th overall
Carey Price, 5th overall
David Fischer, 20th Overall
Ryan McDonagh, 12th overall
Max Pacioretty, 22nd overall

Louis Leblanc, 18th overall
Jarrod Tinordi, 22nd overall
Nathan Beaulieu, 17th overall
Alex Galchenyuk, 3rd overall

Out of the six players for which we have had enough time to evaluate, we see three fantastic NHLers (50%) who are on par with Plekanec,Cole, and Markov; a 2nd liner who is a step down (Andrei Kostitsyn) and two busts (Fischer and Chipchura).

Thus, if we trade Plekanec, Cole, and Markov, the most likely outcome is to get 2 NHLers, either 2 very good ones or one very good one and one decent one, with one bust. That's a decent return. We'll also have cleared 15.25 million worth of cap space, giving us the means to make noise on the UFA market and upgrade. And again, this leaves aside the fact that I think we could do better than 3 1st rounders.
There is only 1 bust, Fischer, we went for a Homerun on that one. Chipchura has never reached his potential but played in the NHL quite a bit, he was in a ok pick in a below average draft. We haven't seen years like 2004 and 2006 in talent quality since then, not sure there are some in our future mostly because of how much the sport is growing in the US. The prospect pool will never be that weak ever again.

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01-17-2013, 12:01 PM
  #924
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There is only 1 bust, Fischer, we went for a Homerun on that one. Chipchura has never reached his potential but played in the NHL quite a bit, he was in a ok pick in a below average draft. We haven't seen years like 2004 and 2006 in talent quality since then, not sure there are some in our future mostly because of how much the sport is growing in the US. The prospect pool will never be that weak ever again.
I disagree.

There will always be below average or above average draft years.

The total number of NHL players is fixed at ~650, some players are below average and some are above average. If you increase the size of the talent pool, say by growing the game in the USA, then you just raise the skill level of the average player, but you still have half of players above average and half below average.

However, you're correct in the context of this thread. The 2004 and 2006 drafts are irrelevant here, as we're talking about rebuilding the Habs right now, and the 2013 draft will not be that weak.

However #2, I realize I'm making a math error, as I write this post, and that you may be entirely correct and what I wrote in the above three paragraphs, but I'll leave it there for the sake of completeness.

Here goes: You can have a nearly-uninterrupted sequence of great drafts if the average skill level is rising. The draft class players are not just competing against each other, they're competing against all the players drafted in the last 10 years or so. If the average skill level is continuously rising, then nearly every draft can be a great draft as the players coming in are much better than the players already in.

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01-17-2013, 12:11 PM
  #925
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Consider that the Habs will have only one high first round draft pick in 2013. Where would they get another? Obviously not from a team that would be drafting in the #20-30 bracket. Would the Islanders, Blue Jackets, or other bottom ranking team trade #1 for a Hab veteran? Extremely unlikely. It will take time for the Habs to build a contending team. Sure, they already have promising prospects (although no Crosbys or Malkins), but Habs fans shouldn't ignore other lowly teams that are already following a prescription for rebuilding. The Oilers have a pretty good head start, as the Penguins and Blackhawks did earlier. Won't the Blue Jackets be selecting before the Habs for the next few drafts? (Let's disregard the vagaries of the lottery.)

There are alternative routes to becoming strong. The Rangers and Bruins made favorable trades for veterans, not to mention signing UFAs. Adding Suter and Parise give the Wild instant cachet. Would anyone care to predict when the Habs will overtake the powerful teams by a adopting tanking strategy (surgical or otherwise)? I suppose it would depend on how long they stink. As soon as they start winning they'll be settling for middling draft positions.

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