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Realistic Expections for Dougie Hamilton This Season.

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Old
01-18-2013, 12:43 PM
  #51
Gee Wally
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Not having a pre season, NHL level, is gonna hurt this kid the most.

If he can take the physical pounding he's about to receive I see him at :

38 games. 3G 12 assist... about 8 to 12 min game.

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01-18-2013, 12:49 PM
  #52
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I think you are being pretty generous, I predict that boards will be afire by Sunday morning.
Haha pretty accurate.

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01-18-2013, 06:20 PM
  #53
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they are a sad, strange little fanbase, and they have my pity.
Lol. Is rusty a leafs fan?

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01-18-2013, 06:37 PM
  #54
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Dougie will be fine. Look at how playing a full season in boston paid huge dividends for Seguin. Dougie Has zero new things to lean in Ohl. Matter of fact Dougie is too good for Ohl.

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01-18-2013, 06:39 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by ranold26 View Post
I understand your logic, but once the NHL vets get their arses in full speed mode, Dougie's limited[no fault of his own] skills and experience will be very apparent. After six games, we're burning a full ELC SPC year.
You want to make an omelet, you've got to break a few eggs.

Hamilton will make mistakes and learn. Not wanting to burn a year of his contract is not a good enough reason to keep him on the shelf.

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01-18-2013, 06:41 PM
  #56
22Brad Park
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Im nervous about him in short season.I guess we will see soon.I just wish Bruins could add a Colin White type player with experience so when last ten games come and playoffs they can sit the kid and add a good vet if he not playing well or tired etc.Having no options is not fair to team just for him to improve for future,I mean they still trying to win Cup this year correct? Not bashing kid either,

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01-18-2013, 06:48 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Artemis View Post
You want to make an omelet, you've got to break a few eggs.

Hamilton will make mistakes and learn. Not wanting to burn a year of his contract is not a good enough reason to keep him on the shelf.
I hope he is ready, but I dont think anyone here wants to hold him out just to save a year. If we were convinced that he was ready then it would be a different story.

There is more than one way to make an omelet. Shocking to hear you in complete agreement with whatever management decides though.

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01-18-2013, 07:00 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by 22Brad Park View Post
Im nervous about him in short season.I guess we will see soon.I just wish Bruins could add a Colin White type player with experience so when last ten games come and playoffs they can sit the kid and add a good vet if he not playing well or tired etc.Having no options is not fair to team just for him to improve for future,I mean they still trying to win Cup this year correct? Not bashing kid either,
The Bruins aren't depending on Dougie Hamilton to win the Stanley Cup. If you want to have a team that's going to contend now AND in the future, you have to put these guys in the lineup sooner or later.

The trading deadline is, I believe, April 5. Let's see where they are at that time before we start panicking.

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01-18-2013, 07:15 PM
  #59
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I don't think sending him back is of value.

However I do have some concerns not related to skill.

Any young player but more so D men take longer to learn and process the pro game. Patience will be required.
Main concern is the physical pounding D men take in this new age of no interference. It was actually easier to break in a less than physically mature player prior to the rule changes. Add in the compressed schedule of a game every other night and this kid is going to be subjected to beatings by grown men that he's never encountered before.

I can easily see him spending time in the press box out of self preservation over the next few months.

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01-18-2013, 08:35 PM
  #60
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4 G, 12 A...Haggs has him at 25 points, which seems high to me, but I hope Haggs is right and not me. I think 16 pts is a good pick although I want to sandbag and say 8 points.

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01-18-2013, 08:51 PM
  #61
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On the Bruins sports daily site, i pecked him at 20-25 goals and 30- 40 assists and some posters told me that would be a great season for Dougie and if he had that, they would go nuts.

I have seen them tampered my exceptions and now knowing what a good stats for a Nhl Defenseman should look like, i say that Dougie Hamilton scores 8, 9 goals and tails about 15 assists and gets some minutes on the second Powerplay. What do others think?
25 points for a rookie in a 48 game season would most likely get him nominated for the calder

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01-18-2013, 08:52 PM
  #62
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4 G, 12 A...Haggs has him at 25 points, which seems high to me, but I hope Haggs is right and not me. I think 16 pts is a good pick although I want to sandbag and say 8 points.
id be happy with 8! he is a rookie... and a defenceman... as long as he isnt like minus 15

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01-18-2013, 09:21 PM
  #63
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It could vary from some of the other predictions here, based also on whether or not he gets any power play time. Hard to say what's gonna happen with that unit.

We get spoiled here when we see a guy like Chara....a defensive rock who also has offensive capabilities. I don't expect Hamilton to do much scoring, nor does this team need him to be a scorer.

I want him solid in that back six to be able work with whomever he'll be paired with (and Rask) to keep rebounds away from the front of the net and be able to play a smart transition game to set up the offense.

Scoring would be icing on the cake.

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01-19-2013, 01:05 AM
  #64
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Realistic Expectation 67 pts and 17 of those are goals.Anything less and he is officially a bust...

Now to be honest. I actually see him getting 33-41 pts. I think he will more of an impact then most people think largely due to his intelligence and offensive ability.

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01-19-2013, 01:13 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Realistic Expectation 67 pts and 17 of those are goals.Anything less and he is officially a bust...

Now to be honest. I actually see him getting 33-41 pts. I think he will more of an impact then most people think largely due to his intelligence and offensive ability.
56 point production over a full season as the low end and 70 point production on the high end? I'm as big a Dougie fan as any but I don't see it happening. 33 in the shortened season would be right around absolute best case scenario as that would mean he came right in and was effective as Myers at 19 and would be in Calder contention but I'm very sceptical Hamilton comes close to that.

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01-19-2013, 01:21 AM
  #66
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2g, 7a and a nice rookie season.

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01-19-2013, 03:50 AM
  #67
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The kid looks to be paired with Seidenberg even strength and may get on second powerplay unit at times. Some of these ice time predictions seem very low, while only dressing six defensemen it's hard to bury someone like Seguin got buried as a forward. As for points I have no idea, wouldn't expect a lot, wouldn't expect almost none.
This. No 6th D who has played over 20 games for the B's since Julien took over has played less than 14:51 TOI. It is usually around 17 minutes.

Rookies/1st full season:

Mark Stuart - played about 14 minutes per game his first 32 career games over 2 seasons under Lewis but he was at least the 8th D those seasons. He then played 15:23 his first full season - which was under Julien.

Hunwick - only 10:36 his 1st 13 games but he was at least the 9th D that year based on games played. He then played 16:59 TOI in his first full season.

Boychuk - 17:39 1st full season. He had only 5 career games before that and only 1 with the Bruins.

McQuaid - Only 10:44 in his 1st 19 games but he was the 8th defenseman that year and was no Hamilton even if he was older. He then played 14:51 in his first full season. He was on the last pair and didn't play special teams like Dougie should at least on the powerplay.

Kampfer - 17:43 in 38 games as a rookie.

I don't know if everyone has just lowered their expectations so much so they aren't disappointed or what. Offensively he has had two of the best junior offensive seasons probably ever, but at least the last 15 to 20 years. Who has had a better PPG as a D? I only found Ellis and Berard. Defensively he will make mistakes but he is also 6'5", is smart, can skate and will be paired with Seidenberg. He should see powerplay time.
So I say he gets at least 16 minutes a game and more likely 18.

So on to point predictions.

There have been 30 rookie D in the last 5 years who have scored at a full season 25 point pace (at least 30 games played). That equals 15 points in 48 games. The highest in 48 games would have scored 29 points. I don't see why Hamilton shouldn't be in that range. With the Bruins stressing the importance of defense, and not needing to rely on him like some other teams would; I don't think he ends up in the upper end of that range and he probably sits a couple games.

So final prediction:

45 games
17:59 TOI
4 Goals
14 Assists
18 Points

It would surprise me more if he was much under that than if he beats those numbers. I would certainly like him to play well and get at least 10 points but I won't be disappointed no matter what he does. Your rookie season doesn't dictate how your career will go. It is time to let him skate with the big boys and learn from Julien, Chara, etc.

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01-19-2013, 04:02 AM
  #68
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i take it you don't remember Kluzak's 1st year. Sounds like If this kid has a Kluzak like rookie campaign you'll be all over him.
Points were low but Kluzak was only 18. He was also a little more of a defensive player and a tougher kid. He had 9 fights.

Hamilton is 20 in 5 months and might get in 1 fight. It would be cool if he got in 9 fights but that isn't what he is here for. A plus rating and a couple more points than Kluzak; probably won't, but should have everybody relatively happy for a rookie season.

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01-19-2013, 04:19 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by ranold26 View Post
I'm surprised he made the club. Being thrown to the fire in a short season doesn't benefit him or the Bruins, imo.
If he plays less than 5 games, 0-1 1pt.
If he plays in all 48 games, 5-12 17pts, with a +/- in the 0-5 range and 12mins in pim.
Wait, you are surprised he made the club but expect if he plays that he scores 17 points in 48 games? I would say that throwing him into that fire would be very beneficial to the both Hamilton and the Bruins.

The only way he should be sent back is if he clearly isn't ready and B's players, coaches and Chiarelli all seem to think he is. From comments that I have read he has looked good at camp.

Sending him back just to save a year on his ELC is dumb. He won't learn anymore, not without the B's and Chara coaching him. The only benefit he would gain by going back is to more physically mature and come in to have a full camp next year. Then he could also play in the AHL if needed.

I see this as the same situation as Seguin. Too good for junior and not going to learn any more. He needs to be here to learn from the B's coaches, learn how to play in the NHL, and learn how to train, eat, prepare from NHL players. It will benefit him tremendously next year.

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01-19-2013, 04:31 AM
  #70
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I hope he is ready, but I dont think anyone here wants to hold him out just to save a year. If we were convinced that he was ready then it would be a different story.

There is more than one way to make an omelet. Shocking to hear you in complete agreement with whatever management decides though.
Well if management decides he should stay up (or go down) shouldn't we be smart to agree & defer to their expertise over message board posters that think they should do something different?

I think he should stay up but if the B's send him down, I am going to assume that is probably best.

I don't think players of his caliber get ruined even if they are brought up early. I think players who have been "ruined" probably weren't good enough or didn't have the work ethic in the first place. I think good players will be good whether they get sent back too long, or are brought up early. Learning in the NHL has trememdous benefits even if the rookie season doesn't end up looking so good.

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01-19-2013, 04:33 AM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Jonathan17 View Post
4 G, 12 A...Haggs has him at 25 points, which seems high to me, but I hope Haggs is right and not me. I think 16 pts is a good pick although I want to sandbag and say 8 points.
Just what I was thinking. 4-12-16. But I have a feeling whatever I go with will be too high. He'll have a Jumbo Joe type first year.

Just play steady, show flashes, and make the adjustment.

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01-19-2013, 07:39 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by sjaustin77 View Post
Wait, you are surprised he made the club but expect if he plays that he scores 17 points in 48 games? I would say that throwing him into that fire would be very beneficial to the both Hamilton and the Bruins.
17 points is being liberal on my part. That said, I have concern on him being in the lineup in this shortened season and I've already explain why.

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01-19-2013, 07:43 AM
  #73
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I predict the boards will be afire with Claude's mishandling by February.
Way to generous.

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01-19-2013, 08:31 AM
  #74
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I'm interested to see how Julian differs between developing a high end wet behind the ears forward and a high end wet behind the ears defenseman. We've seen the former but are yet to really see the latter.

Still, looking at how he integrated guys like Kampfer and Krug into the lineup, even though they had bit more experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see Julian be a little bit less liberal with a kid like Hamilton then he was with a kid like Seguin. If Hamilton sticks with that second pair his progression may be quicker then we expect.

Regardless, I just want to see the kid work on the cerebral aspect of the game. My guess is he finishes with 5-10 points in this shortened season, and that would be fine. Less is also.

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01-19-2013, 08:45 AM
  #75
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Not looking at this as a fan, but what I expected has already happened. Anything else is just a bonus.

There was absolutely no way, no chance in hell, even the remotest of possibilities that Dougie Hamilton was going back to the Niagara Ice Dogs if the Boston Bruins were going to play any hockey this season.

He's in Boston to be under the leadership of Chara, Bergeron, Thornton (among others), to work with a professional strength and conditioning coach, and to learn how to be motivated each and every shift. Things he will never get in St Catherines Ontario. Stats are secondary.

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