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Are the Oilers scouts as good as we think?

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Old
01-19-2013, 02:30 AM
  #26
Nacho
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Who scouted Omark is what I want to know, because using him as a 3rd line grinder doesn't fit into his resume...

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01-19-2013, 02:59 AM
  #27
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They're not exactly revolutionary, I think that much is clear, but they're definitely not bad at all when you look at league average success rates in each round. Two inexcusable picks that I say even without the benefit of hindsight are Troy Hesketh and Cameron Abney. However, I believe this was the 2nd draft Stu ran so maybe he had some weird ideas and he's ironed them out now. All part of the learning what it takes - as long as these guys are looking at their old mistakes and improving on their process, and there should be a process and specific criteria these guys are using, then it's hard to fault them too much for doing a "bad job." Scouting is incredibly difficult.

Getting Hartikainen and Eberle out of the 2008 draft is already a win, 2 legit NHL players. One star and another everyday player is a great job, the other years are too soon to evaluate truly. Too bad we didn't have a pick in the 2nd round that year, there were some terrific players to be found there but we did end up getting Schultz. Could end up getting 2 of the top 10 players from that draft.


Last edited by puckfan13: 01-19-2013 at 03:04 AM.
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Old
01-19-2013, 04:12 AM
  #28
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Let's look at their record.

2001: Hemsky
2002: Stoll, Greene
2003: Brodziak
2004: Dubnyk
2005: Cogliano
2006: Petry (no first round pick)
2007: Gagner
2008: Eberle, maybe Hartikainen
2009: maybe Paajarvi, Lander, Roy
2010: Hall, a bunch of maybes
2011: RNH, probably Klefbom, a bunch of maybes
2012: Yakupov, a bunch of maybes

Basically, if the Oilers had a good team their drafting would probably be good enough to sustain it for awhile. Whether 1st, 6th, 22nd, 25th or 45th overall, they've usually been able to get something with their top pick. The problem isn't that the drafting is bad, it's that it isn't good enough to build a team from the ground up. There isn't a year (with the hopeful exceptions of 2010-12) where they made multiple picks that produced top 4/6 players.

Personally, I think the best thing that could happen for the Oilers (other than a cup) is to finish 17th, win the lottery and then use their next couple of first round picks to fill out their roster by trade/offer sheet. Adding O'Reilly and Jones this off season would top adding Yakupov and Schultz last year.

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Old
01-19-2013, 06:35 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrolean View Post
He hasn't proven anything yet at the Pro level.
Actually he has. He has played in the SEL and established himself as an excellent defensman. He is also just turned 19 so I'd say so far this is a clear positive on the scouting side.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
Over the last few years Oiler fans have been raving about how great the Oiler's scouting staff has been.

But are they really that good?

Anyone could of taken Hall, RNH and Yak when the have the 1st over all pick but what about other picks that they said were so great but they really don't seem to be?

Pitlick not developing so well
Hamilton not developing so well
Lander not developing so well
Morrow should they really have taken him

Are we over rating out scouting staff?
To be honest, relative to where he was picked Lander is turning out quite well. He looks like a surefire NHL'er to me.

I think Pitlick also becomes an everyday NHL'er but it may be in the role of a grinder rather than as a more skilled guy. Still a second round pick only has about a 1 in 6 chance of making the NHL, even if they are high up in round two the odds are still no better than about 1 in 4.


Last edited by Fourier: 01-19-2013 at 06:48 AM.
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Old
01-19-2013, 11:59 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Actually he has. He has played in the SEL and established himself as an excellent defensman. He is also just turned 19 so I'd say so far this is a clear positive on the scouting side.



To be honest, relative to where he was picked Lander is turning out quite well. He looks like a surefire NHL'er to me.

I think Pitlick also becomes an everyday NHL'er but it may be in the role of a grinder rather than as a more skilled guy. Still a second round pick only has about a 1 in 6 chance of making the NHL, even if they are high up in round two the odds are still no better than about 1 in 4.
I hope Kleifbom really come through big but playing well in Europe is different than in the NHL.

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Old
01-19-2013, 12:09 PM
  #31
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I'm not too upset with our scouting over the last 5-6 years. It's the 2012 draft that was a complete ****show for us. Moroz at 2nd? I'm still shaking my head.

Generally over the last 5-6 years they've always been able to make the right pick with the 1st rounder, a solid pick with the 2nd rounder, and always find a late-round gem. For me that's a pretty successful draft.

2006:
1st: Didn't have one
2nd: Jeff Petry (top-4) defenseman
Late: Peckham (3rd) *meh*

2007
1st: Sam Gagner *meh*
1st: Plante *screwup*
1st: Nash *screwup*
2nd: Didn't have one
Late: Omark (4th)

2008 - MacGregor era begins
1st: Jordan Eberle
2nd: Didn't have one
Late: Teemu Hartikainen (5th)

2009
1st: Magnus Paajarvi *meh*
2nd: Anton Lander *meh*
Late: Olivier Roy (6th)

2010
1st: Taylor Hall (duh)
2nd: Tyler Pitlick *meh*
2nd: Martin Marincin
2nd: Curtis Hamilton *meh*
Late: Tyler Bunz (4th)

2011
1st: RNH
1st: Klefbom
2nd: Musil *meh*
Late: Tobias Rieder (4th), Martin Gernat (5th)


I'd still say that's a top-10 scouting job in the NHL, even given the fact we were spoon-fed #1 picks for a while.

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Old
01-19-2013, 12:32 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrolean View Post
He hasn't proven anything yet at the Pro level.
So SEL is not a pro league??? First I have ever heard that.....

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Old
01-19-2013, 12:57 PM
  #33
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I believe we are way up there in terms of having a high number of our own picks on our roster. If we have some success this year I'd say the scouting dept is doing their job well.

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01-19-2013, 12:57 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrolean View Post
I hope Kleifbom really come through big but playing well in Europe is different than in the NHL.
The thread is about the success of the scouting group. Klefbom is one of the youngest projects in the system and he has played extremely well in both the WJHC and SEL which is a very good pro league. At his age I think that at this point you can put him in the plus column.

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Old
01-19-2013, 01:06 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
I'm not too upset with our scouting over the last 5-6 years. It's the 2012 draft that was a complete ****show for us. Moroz at 2nd? I'm still shaking my head.

Generally over the last 5-6 years they've always been able to make the right pick with the 1st rounder, a solid pick with the 2nd rounder, and always find a late-round gem. For me that's a pretty successful draft.

2006:
1st: Didn't have one
2nd: Jeff Petry (top-4) defenseman
Late: Peckham (3rd) *meh*

2007
1st: Sam Gagner *meh*
1st: Plante *screwup*
1st: Nash *screwup*
2nd: Didn't have one
Late: Omark (4th)

I'd still say that's a top-10 scouting job in the NHL, even given the fact we were spoon-fed #1 picks for a while.
Bad way to judge the picks.

Pick them against their peers (5 players rated after them).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NH...raft#Round_one

Gagner - Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby, Sutter.
Plante - Gilles, Cherepanov, Ian Cole, MacMillan, A.Esposito
Nash - Pacioretty, Blum, Backlund, White

The only steal from the draft was P.K. Subban in the 2nd round.

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Old
01-19-2013, 01:27 PM
  #36
Petro Points
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
Bad way to judge the picks.

Pick them against their peers (5 players rated after them).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NH...raft#Round_one

Gagner - Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby, Sutter.
Plante - Gilles, Cherepanov, Ian Cole, MacMillan, A.Esposito
Nash - Pacioretty, Blum, Backlund, White

The only steal from the draft was P.K. Subban in the 2nd round.
MTL owned that draft .. Pacioretty\McDonagh\Subban ..
That is like picking 3rd, 4th and 5th overall that year.

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Old
01-19-2013, 01:28 PM
  #37
Tad Mikowsky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
Bad way to judge the picks.

Pick them against their peers (5 players rated after them).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NH...raft#Round_one

Gagner - Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby, Sutter.
Plante - Gilles, Cherepanov, Ian Cole, MacMillan, A.Esposito
Nash - Pacioretty, Blum, Backlund, White

The only steal from the draft was P.K. Subban in the 2nd round.
Dunno, Jamie Benn in the 5th was pretty good too.

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Old
01-19-2013, 01:55 PM
  #38
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Surprised no one has mentioned Kristians Pelss as a future prospect... 7th rounder in 2010 who has excelled in juniors, (hard to say for this year due to suspension) but he is a hard working kid who i think can become a solid bottom 6 player

Also no mention of Martin Gernat, 5th rounder in 2011, another exciting prospect who had an incredible season with the Oil Kings last season (Finally Back from shoulder surgery)

Also undrafted prospect Taylor Fedun who was a dark horse to make the team last year until his injury in pre season but still looks like a solid prospect

Again as some have said its way to early to tell, and it takes time to develop prospects... not every prospect is a taylor hall, or Nuge, or even a landeskog, etc... Some prospects take the next step while many of them just cant take that leap... there is way too much over reacting on this board, its ridiculous

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Old
01-19-2013, 02:11 PM
  #39
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Does anyone else think with a bit more development, Rieder could be this scouting groups biggest steal? That kid looked lights out at the WJHC, he was the only one on Germany who even looked like he belonged on the ice. They would have been trashed a lot worse then they were without him around.

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Old
01-19-2013, 02:16 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
Over the last few years Oiler fans have been raving about how great the Oiler's scouting staff has been.

But are they really that good?

Anyone could of taken Hall, RNH and Yak when the have the 1st over all pick but what about other picks that they said were so great but they really don't seem to be?

Pitlick not developing so well
Hamilton not developing so well
Lander not developing so well
Morrow should they really have taken him

Are we over rating out scouting staff?
Really? Why were a lot people saying they should draft Seguin, Larson, or Murray?

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Old
01-19-2013, 02:27 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Really? Why were a lot people saying they should draft Seguin, Larson, or Murray?
RNH, Hall and Yak were consensus number ones, why wouldn't they take them. The only time the Oilers considered going of the board was when they floated the trial balloon through Stauffer on Murray.

Sequin, Lands and Galchenyuk wouldn't of been mistakes either .... It's the later picks that separate good management from bad.

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01-19-2013, 03:18 PM
  #42
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Looking at all the picks... I think it's a case of having too high expectations to some degree. We expect all the 1st rounders to pan out PLUS have several serviceable NHL players from the rest of the prospects chosen. Not really realistic.

Many organizations don't even get all their 1st rounders to consistently become long term NHL roster players. Sure you can say "but they don't get lotto picks every year either"... BUT even so... if a team is picking later in the 1st and they have busts say two years in a row, that's a pretty crushing shot to the prospect cupboard, and yes that does happen to several teams.

All in all I think we'd have to be pretty satisfied even with how things have progressed so far... any better and we'd almost be greedy. I can pretty much guarantee that almost every GM in the NHL would likely swap their group of prospects with the Oilers if given the choice... even with the duds included.

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Old
01-19-2013, 03:43 PM
  #43
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Drafting 1st over all is a pretty easy job now a days. I am talking about the 2nd round picks that we have picked in the last few years. The saying in Stu we trust but I just feel that the players like Morrow, Lander, Pitlick, and Hamilton received such high praise from the scouting staff, yet they are not proving much at all. This is where it really counts, these picks have to turn out at least 50% if you ask me. Look at those players, are any of them living up to when they were drafted. NO

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01-19-2013, 03:46 PM
  #44
WeridAl
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Before Davidson was diagnosed with cancer, he looked good with the Barons. Don't count that kid out, he's a battler.

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01-19-2013, 03:48 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockinghockey View Post
Drafting 1st over all is a pretty easy job now a days. I am talking about the 2nd round picks that we have picked in the last few years. The saying in Stu we trust but I just feel that the players like Morrow, Lander, Pitlick, and Hamilton received such high praise from the scouting staff, yet they are not proving much at all. This is where it really counts, these picks have to turn out at least 50% if you ask me. Look at those players, are any of them living up to when they were drafted. NO
Your expectations are way too high. No NHL team has 50% of their second round picks turn into better players than Lander.

What you are seing is basically what you should expect to see. If one in 4 second round picks ever becomes an everday NHL'er you've done better than average.

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Old
01-19-2013, 03:49 PM
  #46
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To really judge how good a team's scouting has been you look at how many of their draft picks are in the lineup. You're NEVER going to get a team completely built from the draft. There's always going to be trades and free agents but teams can take credit for the development of some guys they didn't draft. Like we never drafted Smid but we definitely developed him.

Our top 6, Smyth, Horcoff, Hartikainen. On defense we have Petry and Peckham. In goal we have Dubnyk. That's 12 out of 20 or 60% of our lineup with the potential to have another two draftees on D in the lineup as soon as next season.

Let's not forget that we didn't control our farm team til a couple of years ago. Nobody was being developed the way we wanted them to before OKC came into the picture. Having good scouts is great but if you can't turn those projects into NHL players that fit your system you might as well be throwing darts at the wall hoping to hit the bulls eye.

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Old
01-19-2013, 04:11 PM
  #47
Joey Moss
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Meh, still very good. Lots of depth in the organization.

Too bad we didn't get Kulikov in '09 though. At the time Paajarvi was a no brainer but damn we could use Kuli now.

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Old
01-19-2013, 10:55 PM
  #48
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Maybe jumping the gun, but R.Martindale looked good in the Baron win tonight, was also the 1st star. Roy was the 2nd star of the game. Martindale and Pitlick look good together and there might be some chemistry there.

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01-19-2013, 11:17 PM
  #49
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With MacGregor at the helm, I say our draft record speaks for itself, translation=damn fine. Although last season, I would have been much happier if we had drafted Boone Jenner with the 32nd pick instead of Moroz. At the end of the day, it is not a big deal, Moroz is a fine pick.

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Old
01-19-2013, 11:48 PM
  #50
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I think our current scouting regime is fine. My only gripe is that they seem to draft for organizational need as opposed to BPA with that 2nd round pick recently. We keep drafting for bottom 4 D/bottom 6 F needs at that spot and they keep not working out. I don't think Musil or Moroz are going to turn into anything. Musil especially, he's just a coke machine, and how do you not pick Boone Jenner there? I hope Pitlick is our 3rd line C of the future but he seems to have had a hard time adjusting to the AHL.

Player development on the other hand I think leaves a bit to be desired. I can't help but thinking that some draft picks from the past 5 years might be better players if they were brought up/developed in other organizations. Ripping it up in junior, college, overseas and then they get in our system and just hit a wall. Sometimes as a bad team like we've been the past few years I wonder if guys like Paajarvi and Lander were rushed.


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