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The average change in a goalie's save percentage from year to year when he stays with the same team is just 0.0005 larger than simple random chance would predict, and when a goalie changes teams the sv% difference is just 0.0011 larger than random chance. The best shot-quality-influencing system of this era (Jacques Lemaire's) reduced Fenwick shooting percentages by about 0.0015. The result is that any team effect on a goalie's save percentage doesn't add up to more than a goal or two per season.
•The point is not: "All teams face the same shots, so ignore shot quality completely."
•The point is: "Differences in shot locations are small and require a very large data set to overcome noise, so you won't be wrong by much if you ignore them."
Both Luongo and Theodore have very large sample sizes. Luongo's career sv%-.919, Theodore's -.909.
10 consecutive years with better numbers. Drink it in. Process it. Respond.
I think at the end it just boils down to the contract length (10 years vs 1 year), as RogerRoeper mentioned. Luongo has been/is the better goaltender, no arguments there.
10 consecutive years with better numbers. Drink it in. Process it. Respond.
Yup, and if the Panthers are going back in time and trading for a goalie 5 years ago, they'd certainly be more inclined to pick Theodore over Luongo. However, we're looking forward, and right now, these 2 are coming off seasons where they posted similar numbers.
The deal isn't going to happen now, and if Theo has another year similar to his most recent, there's really no reason to throw good money away on going from Theodore to Luongo. The team would be much better served spending that money on additional firepower, or retaining the firepower they do have.
And Theodore had the same quality team in front of him?
I'm not saying Theo is better but you have to consider the quality of D around a goalie.
No, but he did play behind a team that took the 4th fewest minor penalties. Nobody ever thinks or talks about this stat but it plays a big part in a goaltenders SV%. The quality of D should be taken into account, as should time killing penalties - where a goalie's SV% goes down radically. The Canucks always take a lot of minor penalties.
Theodore just isn't on Luongo's level and stats back that up.
I think at the end it just boils down to the contract length (10 years vs 1 year), as RogerRoeper mentioned. Luongo has been/is the better goaltender, no arguments there.
That's it. The 10 years are going to scare so many teams away. And I'm a big fan of Luongo's talent.
The fact is, some of the NHL's top goalies from last season were had for nothing, or close to it. The market for goalies is bad. And then there's the 10 years. It kills his value.
10 consecutive years with better numbers. Drink it in. Process it. Respond.
But the issue is the contract of Luongo's. It's not that people are arguing Theo is better. In fact, his numbers were brought-up because of the "back up" comments. The fact is, he was very good last season and helped lead his team to the playoffs and has a very good contract.
Despite what the pundits say, Luongo is fine in Vancouver for now and all the principles involved have stated as much.
Luongo playing 35% of the team's games this season isn't a waste of anything...if Luongo was Calgary's backup they would have made the playoffs last year.
Last edited by piqued: 01-19-2013 at 11:56 AM.
Reason: page formatting
But the issue is the contract of Luongo's. It's not that people are arguing Theo is better. In fact, his numbers were brought-up because of the "back up" comments. The fact is, he was very good last season and helped lead his team to the playoffs and has a very good contract.
The issue is Theodore's consistency. He's a potential backup because he's not as reliable or consistent as guye like Luongo. Any goalie can have 1 good to decent season. It's the ability to string them together that separates the marginal netminders from the top tier.
Tallon already went to Panther management to get the okay on Luongo's contract and he got it. There's no question they're looking at upgrading the position. They just don't want to move Bjugstad to do it. And with where they are, I wouldn't either.
Gillis is being pig headed here. He has made so many great trades and deals, why cant he just man up and admit when he screwed up. He aint perfect.
He let Erhoff walk out, and so he licked his wounds and now has signed Garrison.
He traded for Ballard and simply refuses to even put the guy on waivers let alone trade him for a 4th rounder. He blew it. Lets stop wasting his time and our payroll. Dump him.
He signed that stupid Sturm which led to Booth as a cap swap but booth still may make it worth while if he can ever play again. He is going Dipietro on us.
Now he cant get rid of Luongo and wont admit he is the one who signed the stupid contract which is the sole reason why he is still here. Many GMs would have paid Gillis' price if the contract had 3 or even 4 years left.
So , instead of creating this chronic never ending saga, lets take the best offer we can get and move on. Or , trade Schneider. Its that simple.
Gillis is a great GM and part of it is ADMITTING when you screwed up.
Gillis is being pig headed here. He has made so many great trades and deals, why cant he just man up and admit when he screwed up. He aint perfect.
He let Erhoff walk out, and so he licked his wounds and now has signed Garrison.
He traded for Ballard and simply refuses to even put the guy on waivers let alone trade him for a 4th rounder. He blew it. Lets stop wasting his time and our payroll. Dump him.
He signed that stupid Sturm which led to Booth as a cap swap but booth still may make it worth while if he can ever play again. He is going Dipietro on us.
Now he cant get rid of Luongo and wont admit he is the one who signed the stupid contract which is the sole reason why he is still here. Many GMs would have paid Gillis' price if the contract had 3 or even 4 years left.
So , instead of creating this chronic never ending saga, lets take the best offer we can get and move on. Or , trade Schneider. Its that simple.
Gillis is a great GM and part of it is ADMITTING when you screwed up.
there is absolutely no reason for him to dump loungo for nothing right now. Maybe next summer but right now would be stupid. Like a lot of these comments in here, logic would not be a reason to dump him for a ufa like Bozak. If the canucks really wanted bozak thenwe would just wait until the summer and sign him. I'm sure he would easily jump from that sinking ship.
Wouldn't do it from the Canucks end. Schneider has looked more than pretty good, he's looked dominant. Luongo is a world class goalie - Schneider looks better than him right now.
If I'm moving Schneider, a young centre with 1st line upside needs to be coming back IMO. Someone like Matt Duchene.
If it isn't a fanbase overrating his players I don't know what it is. Schneider is rather unproven as a number one goalie and you think his value is Duchene?
So , instead of creating this chronic never ending saga, lets take the best offer we can get and move on. Or , trade Schneider. Its that simple.
This 'never ending saga' has lasted a grand total of zero NHL games. The demand for impact players goes up once teams hit the ice, where pressure to win influences decisions. That hasn't happened yet, hence the canucks likely haven't seen the best offer they're bound to see.
It's just like negotiating the CBA. No meaningful discussions take place until the parties feel loss.
IMO Luongo gets dealt between game 5 and 10 of the season.
The issue is Theodore's consistency. He's a potential backup because he's not as reliable or consistent as guye like Luongo. Any goalie can have 1 good to decent season. It's the ability to string them together that separates the marginal netminders from the top tier.
Tallon already went to Panther management to get the okay on Luongo's contract and he got it. There's no question they're looking at upgrading the position. They just don't want to move Bjugstad to do it. And with where they are, I wouldn't either.
That's one media report. everytime I bring up one that doesn't favour Vancouver, Canuck fans tell me it's b.s.
Yup, and if the Panthers are going back in time and trading for a goalie 5 years ago, they'd certainly be more inclined to pick Theodore over Luongo. However, we're looking forward, and right now, these 2 are coming off seasons where they posted similar numbers.
The deal isn't going to happen now, and if Theo has another year similar to his most recent, there's really no reason to throw good money away on going from Theodore to Luongo. The team would be much better served spending that money on additional firepower, or retaining the firepower they do have.
Just for frame of reference, can you disclose which team you cheer for - which forum you post most often in re NHL teams?
Despite what the pundits say, Luongo is fine in Vancouver for now and all the principles involved have stated as much.
Luongo playing 35% of the team's games this season isn't a waste of anything...if Luongo was Calgary's backup they would have made the playoffs last year.
Gillis is being pig headed here. He has made so many great trades and deals, why cant he just man up and admit when he screwed up. He aint perfect.
He let Erhoff walk out, and so he licked his wounds and now has signed Garrison.
He traded for Ballard and simply refuses to even put the guy on waivers let alone trade him for a 4th rounder. He blew it. Lets stop wasting his time and our payroll. Dump him.
He signed that stupid Sturm which led to Booth as a cap swap but booth still may make it worth while if he can ever play again. He is going Dipietro on us.
Now he cant get rid of Luongo and wont admit he is the one who signed the stupid contract which is the sole reason why he is still here. Many GMs would have paid Gillis' price if the contract had 3 or even 4 years left.
So , instead of creating this chronic never ending saga, lets take the best offer we can get and move on. Or , trade Schneider. Its that simple.
Gillis is a great GM and part of it is ADMITTING when you screwed up.
This is asanine. You want the guy to publicly come out and say he ****ed up with Luongo's contract? Yeah, that will really help in terms of enticing another team to make him an acceptable offer.
If it isn't a fanbase overrating his players I don't know what it is. Schneider is rather unproven as a number one goalie and you think his value is Duchene?
Close. Schneider just supplanted one of the best goalies in the league. You think that's fluke? He's going to be a star. He'll have a few Vezinas in his trophy case when it's all said and done.
If it isn't a fanbase overrating his players I don't know what it is. Schneider is rather unproven as a number one goalie and you think his value is Duchene?
Schneider just stole the job of the best goalie in Canuck history that led his team to back to back President's trophies, within 1 win of the Stanley cup and is 1 season removed from a Vezina nomination. If Canuck managament wasn't 100% sold on Schneider, they don't move Luongo during a period where they're pushing hard for the cup while the Sedins are still elite players.
Why would the Canucks move Schneidr for anything less than a guy like Matt Duchene? I could give 2 ***** if Colorado liked that deal - that's the type of return it would take to pull the trigger. Don't like it? Offer something for Luongo or look elsewhere...
Schneider just stole the job of the best goalie in Canuck history that led his team to back to back President's trophies, within 1 win of the Stanley cup and is 1 season removed from a Vezina nomination. If Canuck managament wasn't 100% sold on Schneider, they don't move Luongo during a period where they're pushing hard for the cup while the Sedins are still elite players.
Why would the Canucks move Schneidr for anything less than a guy like Matt Duchene? I could give 2 ***** if Colorado liked that deal - that's the type of return it would take to pull the trigger. Don't like it? Offer something for Luongo or look elsewhere...
Tallon has repeatedly said he's talking to Gillis about Luongo. If ownership wasn't prepared to take on that contract, there's nothing to discuss.
I thought it was common knowledge by now that Florida is interested? It's Gillis' refusal to back off Bjugstad where the talks have stalled.
Bjugstad or better. The other problem I suspect is that a package of roster players, that would fill needs here in Vancouver, would also be shot down as fast as Panthers fans shoot our proposals down: Offensively starved teams don't trade scoring forwards away for a position they feel confident in already.
