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Old
01-19-2013, 02:07 PM
  #351
eXile59
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Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
An awful lot of discussion over losing a bottom pairing / depth defenseman.
A couple injuries & Lovejoy is making horrible turnovers in his own zone & it's a bigger deal than you think.

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01-19-2013, 02:40 PM
  #352
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You know people are excited for hockey when a thread about Brian Strait being claimed off waivers gets 300+ posts

But yeah, this could end up stinging a bit if we lose some D-men throughout the season.

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01-19-2013, 02:44 PM
  #353
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Originally Posted by limite* View Post
Harrington was barely big enough to physically handle junior players." He has a long way to go before he's in the NHL. "

Although you're on my ignore list, I saw this quote that Rowdy responded to, so let me say this:


Harrington is one of the 6 best shot blocking defenseman in the entire planet. He at the same level or better, and in the group with these guys: Girardi, Gorges, Michalek, Siedenberg, Scuderi, and Harrington.


In fact, and IMO, Harrington is the best shot-blocking defenseman I have ever seen. I will be surprised if he's not in the Pens line-up to start next season, and don't think that Harrington won't be able to perform at an elite level at the NHL level. He's going to have a whole other summer of to continue to get stronger and add bulk. And if we weren't so deep right now, I think he could be in our line-up and perform well this season, right now.

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01-19-2013, 02:48 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by eXile59 View Post
A couple injuries & Lovejoy is making horrible turnovers in his own zone & it's a bigger deal than you think.
If Lovejoy sucks again I'm pretty sure that we have some good D's in WBS ... Dumolin, Morrow, ... we will not be stucked with Lovejoy if he fall

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01-19-2013, 06:54 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Based on Lovejoy sucking and Strait not sucking?

Is there any quantifiable way to support solid defense over a 2 or 3 game sample size? Plus/minus is about the only thing available, and Strait was a +3 while Lovejoy was a -2. Not usually a reliable stat for defensive performance, but I'd say that about matches the eyeball test.
I'm not talking about the playoffs. One playoff series gives next to nothing in terms of predictive value, let alone 2-3 games.

Lovejoy has been a good territorial player as a Penguin. Strait, albeit over a small sample, hasn't been. Even in last year's playoffs Lovejoy had the better Corsi. Strait simply had a monstrous advantage in PDO, a stat players have little effect on long term and in the short term is decided almost entirely by luck.

Strait and Lovejoy play different games. Strait's skillset just happens to appeal to more fans because he doesn't make as many mistakes. But as mentioned before, Lovejoy's erratic play at times is made up for by his tendency to keep play at the opposing end.

In any case, we have loads of defensive prospects coming up the ranks. Strait was bound to be a casualty at one point or another. The outrage on here is much ado about nothing.

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01-19-2013, 07:06 PM
  #356
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
I'm not talking about the playoffs. One playoff series gives next to nothing in terms of predictive value, let alone 2-3 games.

Lovejoy has been a good territorial player as a Penguin. Strait, albeit over a small sample, hasn't been. Even in last year's playoffs Lovejoy had the better Corsi. Strait simply had a monstrous advantage in PDO, a stat players have little effect on long term and in the short term is decided almost entirely by luck.

Strait and Lovejoy play different games. Strait's skillset just happens to appeal to more fans because he doesn't make as many mistakes. But as mentioned before, Lovejoy's erratic play at times is made up for by his tendency to keep play at the opposing end.
Lovejoy really wasn't any good all of last year. I hadn't looked at the advanced stats, I just watched the games. Corsi numbers could not mean less to me - Martin had the best Corsi of all our top 4 defensemen last year, for crying out loud.

BL was exploitable, and his ability to keep the puck in the opposition end isn't anything special - certainly not enough to make up for his own-zone play, which is where we've had most of our problems.

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01-19-2013, 07:14 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Sh00terMcGavin View Post
You know people are excited for hockey when a thread about Brian Strait being claimed off waivers gets 300+ posts

But yeah, this could end up stinging a bit if we lose some D-men throughout the season.
Ray Shero has said in the past he likes to be 10 deep on defense. We're at 8 on the roster right now, Brian Dumoulin makes 9 who's making some big strides, and then Dylan Reese, who's seen decent spot duty in recent seasons and acquitted himself adequately, makes 10. Then you have Joe Morrow behind that. I doubt many if any teams go back that far with their defensive personnel.

I think we're good.

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01-19-2013, 07:22 PM
  #358
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Is Strait in the squad tonight?

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01-19-2013, 07:39 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by Shrimper View Post
Is Strait in the squad tonight?
Yes.

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01-19-2013, 07:41 PM
  #360
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He's looked good so far. Just made a nice step up and pasted someone along the boards

Best part is he's paired with Streit, I kid you not.

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01-19-2013, 07:45 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by Wes C Addle View Post
He's looked good so far. Just made a nice step up and pasted someone along the boards

Best part is he's paired with Streit, I kid you not.
But he sucks and isn't even better than Lovejoy!

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01-19-2013, 08:59 PM
  #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Lovejoy really wasn't any good all of last year. I hadn't looked at the advanced stats, I just watched the games. Corsi numbers could not mean less to me - Martin had the best Corsi of all our top 4 defensemen last year, for crying out loud.
All due respect CW, Corsi numbers meaning nothing to you is more an indictment of your judgment than it is of Corsi. It's a tremendously valuable statistic that translates to tangible results on the ice, unlike eye tests determined over a handful of games.

It's interesting you mention Paul Martin. Yes, he made tons of errors last season, but due to his territorial success still managed to finish the season as a +9. When you keep the puck in the offensive zone for most of your shifts, you can still come out ahead in goals for / against despite an abundance of critical errors. So while you think you've made a point against Corsi, in actuality you've made one in it's favor. It's no coincidence that Martin has been a minus player once in his career, or that Lovejoy is +22 in 95 regular season games. Corsi matters, whether you'd like to admit so or not. Meanwhile your eyetest is subject to copious amounts of cognitive biases, groupthink, and an unreliable sample size. Your eyetest also fails to match up with nearly every single team in the league who had an opportunity to take Strait for free and declined.

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Originally Posted by MrBurgundy View Post
But he sucks and isn't even better than Lovejoy!
Only here would Strait executing a routine play after a period of hockey elicit this kind of response. What's next, a thread for Chris Bourque upon completion of a successful tape to tape pass?

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01-19-2013, 09:00 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Wes C Addle View Post
He's looked good so far. Just made a nice step up and pasted someone along the boards

Best part is he's paired with Streit, I kid you not.

It's funny, and I'm not surprised, because right before he got waived I was going to come on these boards and suggest that Strait could be a good partner for Letang if Niskanen or Despres didn't work out. It doesn't surprise me at all that he's capable of playing in the top-4 or being paired with a top offensive guy (like Scuderi with Doughty).

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01-19-2013, 09:09 PM
  #364
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They've also paired Joe Finley with Matt Carkner. Not the most fleet footed pairing there.

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01-20-2013, 01:54 AM
  #365
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
All due respect CW, Corsi numbers meaning nothing to you is more an indictment of your judgment than it is of Corsi. It's a tremendously valuable statistic that translates to tangible results on the ice, unlike eye tests determined over a handful of games.

It's interesting you mention Paul Martin. Yes, he made tons of errors last season, but due to his territorial success still managed to finish the season as a +9. When you keep the puck in the offensive zone for most of your shifts, you can still come out ahead in goals for / against despite an abundance of critical errors. So while you think you've made a point against Corsi, in actuality you've made one in it's favor. It's no coincidence that Martin has been a minus player once in his career, or that Lovejoy is +22 in 95 regular season games. Corsi matters, whether you'd like to admit so or not. Meanwhile your eyetest is subject to copious amounts of cognitive biases, groupthink, and an unreliable sample size.
If Corsi/territorial numbers suggest to you that Martin had a good year last season, I'm not sure what to say. I suppose you hope he continues to put up similar performances for us over the duration of his contract. I don't.

There's a danger of groupthink and cognitive biases affecting eyeball tests. There's also a danger in statistics of ignoring critical observation and slavishly following numbers into a distorted reality. That's the only way I can fathom somebody taking that position on Martin last year.

His defense partner said "I think he was just as disappointed as anybody else last year in how he played". His GM said it's up to him to get himself back to the level he was at before last year. Martin himself said he had "a terrible year" and that this year was "a fresh start".

Is that groupthink and cognitive bias too?

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Your eyetest also fails to match up with nearly every single team in the league who had an opportunity to take Strait for free and declined.
I don't follow. Strait was claimed, and very early on in the waiver procedure. AFAIK, 3 teams passed on him - Columbus, Edmonton, and Montreal. NYI was 4th in the waiver order based on the previous season's standings.

I guess they didn't check his Corsi numbers.


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Old
01-20-2013, 02:08 AM
  #366
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Happy that the kid is finally getting to play and apparently looked pretty solid. He would have rotted in the press box here even if we kept him.

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01-20-2013, 02:12 AM
  #367
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
If Corsi/territorial numbers suggest to you that Martin had a good year last season, I'm not sure what to say. I suppose you hope he continues to put up similar performances for us over the duration of his contract. I don't.
I didn't say that Martin had a good season last year. The point was that his territorial play was still good and that kept him above water during the season when he was turning the puck over and blowing his defensive zone coverage. Alas, the value of Corsi. Had Martin spent more time in his own end he would have had many more opportunities to make mistakes that end up in the back of his net, and less opportunities for his own team to score. All of those things lead to losses.

Quote:
There's a danger of groupthink and cognitive biases affecting eyeball tests. There's also a danger in statistics of ignoring critical observation and slavishly following numbers into a distorted reality. That's the only way I can fathom somebody taking that position on Martin last year.
Again, I am taking no position with Martin that says he played well. I believe I was even fairly critical of him last year despite knowing full well that his territorial play was still intact. His errors and the overall regression within his play were alarming and he was certainly not deserving of the payday he was earning. My point above stands.

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I don't follow. Strait was claimed, and very early on in the waiver procedure. We know that exactly 3 teams passed on him - Columbus, Edmonton, and Montreal. NYI was 4th in the waiver order based on the previous season's standings.

I guess they didn't check his Corsi numbers.
I suppose we don't know if those remaining teams would have claimed him. What we do know, however, is that no team deemed him worthy of a late round or conditional draft pick, or even a filler prospect. We also know the Penguins themselves preferred Lovejoy, and this is an organization that is fairly adept at evaluating defenseman. I see no reason to second guess their decision.

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01-20-2013, 02:19 AM
  #368
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Corsi stats are garbage. Advanced stats just don't work for hockey and there are too many glaringly wrong Corsi stats to find it much more than +/- for stat snobs.

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01-20-2013, 02:30 AM
  #369
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Originally Posted by Big McLargehuge View Post
Corsi stats are garbage. Advanced stats just don't work for hockey and there are too many glaringly wrong Corsi stats to find it much more than +/- for stat snobs.
Not getting into the Corsi debate for the thousandth time so I'll just ask you to find one player who consistently posts a positive Corsi that is not a significantly plus player over their career.

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01-20-2013, 02:33 AM
  #370
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It is looking pretty bad that we did not keep the kid seeing how we are trading Martin and Orpik.

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01-20-2013, 02:46 AM
  #371
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
Not getting into the Corsi debate for the thousandth time so I'll just ask you to find one player who consistently posts a positive Corsi that is not a significantly plus player over their career.
Well considering I find +/- to be a garbage stat itself the correlation doesn't really mean anything to me.

Just quickly looking over the top 20 from last season there's a few that simply don't belong. TJ Brodie was 7th in the league last year, Taylor Hall was 16th, David Booth was 10th (the third of 4 Canucks in the top 11...this from a guy who was a -37 in his last 88 games with the Panthers...for as much as I hate +/-, that is just an eye-gouging stat), our old friend Alex Goligoski was 13th...I love Gogo, but he's not exactly a shutdown defender.

I've yet to find an advanced hockey statistic that I feel holds any real value. For everything that it does right (Patrice Bergeron #2), it does two things that are questionable (Bergeron's linemates finishing #3 & #5). Advanced stats work for baseball because it's a zero sum sport. Hockey isn't a zero sum sport. There will never be a statistical basis for moneypuck.

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01-20-2013, 02:51 AM
  #372
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
I didn't say that Martin had a good season last year. The point was that his territorial play was still good and that kept him above water during the season when he was turning the puck over and blowing his defensive zone coverage. Alas, the value of Corsi. Had Martin spent more time in his own end he would have had many more opportunities to make mistakes that end up in the back of his net, and less opportunities for his own team to score. All of those things lead to losses.
I said Lovejoy was bad last season - you said his Corsi suggested otherwise. I said Corsi suggested Martin was our best top 4 defenseman last year which was preposterous based on the eye test - you said the eye test was prone to biases.

I'm not sure what else you could've been trying to suggest, but I'd like to have that cleared up.

Quote:
Again, I am taking no position with Martin that says he played well. I believe I was even fairly critical of him last year despite knowing full well that his territorial play was still intact. His errors and the overall regression within his play were alarming and he was certainly not deserving of the payday he was earning. My point above stands.
So then why are we acting as though these advanced stats are accurate reflections of a player's overall performance?

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I suppose we don't know if those remaining teams would have claimed him. What we do know, however, is that no team deemed him worthy of a late round or conditional draft pick, or even a filler prospect. We also know the Penguins themselves preferred Lovejoy, and this is an organization that is fairly adept at evaluating defenseman. I see no reason to second guess their decision.
I don't automatically defer to the Pens organization.

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01-20-2013, 02:59 AM
  #373
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Originally Posted by Big McLargehuge View Post
Well considering I find +/- to be a garbage stat itself the correlation doesn't really mean anything to me.

Just quickly looking over the top 20 from last season there's a few that simply don't belong. TJ Brodie was 7th in the league last year, Taylor Hall was 16th, David Booth was 10th (the third of 4 Canucks in the top 11...this from a guy who was a -37 in his last 88 games with the Panthers...for as much as I hate +/-, that is just an eye-gouging stat), our old friend Alex Goligoski was 13th...I love Gogo, but he's not exactly a shutdown defender.

I've yet to find an advanced hockey statistic that I feel holds any real value. For everything that it does right (Patrice Bergeron #2), it does two things that are questionable (Bergeron's linemates finishing #3 & #5). Advanced stats work for baseball because it's a zero sum sport. Hockey isn't a zero sum sport. There will never be a statistical basis for moneypuck.
When I said consistently I meant over several seasons. There is way too much variance for those numbers to converge over a season or two.

No single stat advanced or otherwise is going to be the end all be all. Players fluke their way to high point totals, yet we realize points to be overall a valuable statistic. Same for goalies with save percentage. Yet when advanced statistics come into play it's all or nothing for a lot of people. If it doesn't perfectly take everything into account then it's flawed and has no meaning. It's a flawed statistic, yes, but more in the sense that it doesn't account for things like teammates, quality of competition, zone starts, etc. Fortunately we do have these tools at our disposal, and using them in conjunction with one another can reveal tons about a player, much more than casually watching a player for a few games and in the case of many observers, an entire season.

That said, raw / relative Corsi without any other adjustments can be very valuable. Look at the players who year in and year out dominate this statistic. It's generally the same players, which is important to note because it shows that it's a repeatable skill, and their impressive plus minus is also important because it shows Corsi's influence on even strength goal differential, the single most important attribute any player can possess.

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01-20-2013, 03:16 AM
  #374
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
I said Lovejoy was bad last season - you said his Corsi suggested otherwise. I said Corsi suggested Martin was our best top 4 defenseman last year which was preposterous based on the eye test - you said the eye test was prone to biases.

I'm not sure what else you could've been trying to suggest, but I'd like to have that cleared up.
I'll be glad to. I posted a comment suggesting that Lovejoy's erratic play was made up for by his ability to keep the play in the offensive zone. You suggested that wasn't the case last season. I then brought up their respective Corsi numbers to debunk that specific point. You are now presumably taking that as me saying that we are supposed to sort defenseman skill by Corsi. Needless to say, I've said nothing of the sort. Slow down a bit with the assumptions.

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So then why are we acting as though these advanced stats are accurate reflections of a player's overall performance?
Because advanced statistics give insight where eye tests do not, and those numbers push in a direction leading to tangible results.

For the record, I do not think that Strait is a bad player, and his Corsi sample is too small to draw any significant conclusions. I just know that based on the limited data we had, Lovejoy did much better in a statistic that I value very highly because of it's correlation to even strength success, and the arguments in favor of Strait seem to all rely on an extremely small sample size where people believe he looked better than Lovejoy. People are entitled to their opinions, but the Pens were more than justified in keeping Lovejoy based on all of the information at their disposal. Regardless, this discussion is pointless. It's like arguing for Park over Adams. The difference is neglible and both will probably be replaced soon enough.

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I don't automatically defer to the Pens organization.
What about all of the other teams who decided he wasn't worth trading a warm body for?

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01-20-2013, 03:54 AM
  #375
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I'll be glad to. I posted a comment suggesting that Lovejoy's erratic play was made up for by his ability to keep the play in the offensive zone. You suggested that wasn't the case last season. I then brought up their respective Corsi numbers to debunk that specific point. You are now presumably taking that as me saying that we are supposed to sort defenseman skill by Corsi. Needless to say, I've said nothing of the sort. Slow down a bit with the assumptions.
But if he played poorly overall, then keeping play in the offensive zone isn't "making up for" anything. It's simply an asset that wasn't good enough to make him a net positive value player.

Hence the Martin example.

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Because advanced statistics give insight where eye tests do not, and those numbers push in a direction leading to tangible results.

For the record, I do not think that Strait is a bad player, and his Corsi sample is too small to draw any significant conclusions. I just know that based on the limited data we had, Lovejoy did much better in a statistic that I value very highly because of it's correlation to even strength success, and the arguments in favor of Strait seem to all rely on an extremely small sample size where people believe he looked better than Lovejoy. People are entitled to their opinions, but the Pens were more than justified in keeping Lovejoy based on all of the information at their disposal. Regardless, this discussion is pointless. It's like arguing for Park over Adams. The difference is neglible and both will probably be replaced soon enough.
And yet clearly, they can be misleading. I think they are here, with Lovejoy as they were with Martin.

I'm not sure Strait's departure is as inconsequential as you believe. Reliable depth defensemen can play a huge role in a team's success.

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What about all of the other teams who decided he wasn't worth trading a warm body for?
6'1" defensive defensemen with 13 games NHL experience don't exactly attract a lot of attention - I wouldn't use that as a fair indicator of his quality.

It'll be interesting to see how he fares in NYI.

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