This is a bad situation because the longer O'Reilly remains unsigned, the less likely he is to have an impact this season.
He'll probably miss the Avalanche's first 3-5 games and be rusty his first few games back, which is a long enough stretch to make or break a team's season in this 48-game campaign.
He'll probably miss the Avalanche's first 3-5 games and be rusty his first few games back, which is a long enough stretch to make or break a team's season in this 48-game campaign.
He is still playing in Russia, right? It's still pro hockey.
I talked with Greg Sherman tonight at the game, but he doesn’t want to be quoted about O’Reilly. I can tell you this though: it’s not a happy situation, and the more the losses pile up, the uglier it’s going to get.
That's really unfortunate, hopefully if it goes sour you guys get a good return for him. That said he's not the first RFA to hold out, just that it's a little different due to the lockout and him signing in Russia. The 2 year part from day 1 was a bit of a red flag to me it was either a bargaining ploy or he wanted out from Colorado. The latter doesn't make much sense IMO since he saw lots of ice and success last season.
__________________ Treat Others As You Would Like To Be Treated
Another really good blog from Dater. I really think that layoff did him good. Some good thoughtful and rationale analysis with critique, rather than emotional reactionary comments without said thoughtful analysis. Hope it continues, and I say that as someone who has given him a fairly hard time in recent years.
Another really good blog from Dater. I really think that layoff did him good. Some good thoughtful and rationale analysis with critique, rather than emotional reactionary comments without said thoughtful analysis. Hope it continues, and I say that as someone who has given him a fairly hard time in recent years.
Agreed. It's the first time in a long time I've agreed with something Dater has written.
Having seen Landy play with Team Sweden, Djurgården and now Duchene I have to say O'Reilly does bring out the best of him.
I can't talk about when he played in sweden because i didnt see Lando play , but you can't judge he's play with Duchene after only one game. They didnt have much practice togetter and no pre-season game. Plus they were playing with a new player, coming from a new team in PAP that didnt play at all during the lockout. So overall they had 7 days of practice to make it click togetter , that's not enough to past a judgement on weather or not it dont work with Duchene at all .
It's a tricky situation for Sherman. First, you have to stand your ground against agents or they'll run you over in the future. Just look at Calgary that has to give scrubs NTCs while overpaying them just because they started giving NTCs to scrubs. Secondly, hockey players are idiot negotiators. They are too proud and competitive to look at it as pure business. They see offers as challenges and you if you put pressure on them, they make a point of not backing down.
The CBA negotiation and now this mess. Ugh. Hockey players.
Well its official this has turned into a Jordan Staal type situation, although Staal never let it get to this point.
Its pretty clear that O'Reilly views himself as a top 2 line center in the league. Which in my opinion is fair because he would play top two lines on 95% of the other teams in the league. Unfortunately he plays on a team where he isn't a clear cut top 2 line center. We have 3 guys for 2 spots and its arguable who fits where.
O'Reilly situation mirrors Staal's because he knows that playing on the Avs will hurt his opportunity to "cash in". Staal had to play 3rd line minutes and lots of PK time because Malkin and Crosby were going to get the offensive minutes. Similarly Stastny and Duchene are going to be given the offensive minutes where O'Reilly is going to be asked to play the PK and more defensive situatuions. Everyone knows that defensive forwards aren't the ones that get paid, its the offensive stars that cash in. O'Reilly knows this and doesn't want to lose out on cashing in because he is forced to play this "3rd line center" role until his UFA years.
Thus I don't really think the money is the biggest issue. I think he wants a guarantee that he will either be played as a top 2 line center, which we can't guarantee or he wants to be paid like one so that even if he is used as a 3rd line center type he is still making top 2 money, which would be stupid for us because we have tons of young guys needing new contracts in the future.
Unfortunately I don't see a clear cut resolution to this. I don't think the Avs are all of a sudden going to give in and pay him near 5M per season, and I don't think O'Reilly will get sick of making money to play in Russia. The only resolution I see is a trade, but at this point I don't see it ending well for the Avs. We will have to sell for pennies on the dollar if he isn't signed. And we'll probably end up with a terrible trade similar to the Turris trade.
Well its official this has turned into a Jordan Staal type situation, although Staal never let it get to this point.
Its pretty clear that O'Reilly views himself as a top 2 line center in the league. Which in my opinion is fair because he would play top two lines on 95% of the other teams in the league. Unfortunately he plays on a team where he isn't a clear cut top 2 line center. We have 3 guys for 2 spots and its arguable who fits where.
O'Reilly situation mirrors Staal's because he knows that playing on the Avs will hurt his opportunity to "cash in". Staal had to play 3rd line minutes and lots of PK time because Malkin and Crosby were going to get the offensive minutes. Similarly Stastny and Duchene are going to be given the offensive minutes where O'Reilly is going to be asked to play the PK and more defensive situatuions. Everyone knows that defensive forwards aren't the ones that get paid, its the offensive stars that cash in. O'Reilly knows this and doesn't want to lose out on cashing in because he is forced to play this "3rd line center" role until his UFA years.
Thus I don't really think the money is the biggest issue. I think he wants a guarantee that he will either be played as a top 2 line center, which we can't guarantee or he wants to be paid like one so that even if he is used as a 3rd line center type he is still making top 2 money, which would be stupid for us because we have tons of young guys needing new contracts in the future.
Unfortunately I don't see a clear cut resolution to this. I don't think the Avs are all of a sudden going to give in and pay him near 5M per season, and I don't think O'Reilly will get sick of making money to play in Russia. The only resolution I see is a trade, but at this point I don't see it ending well for the Avs. We will have to sell for pennies on the dollar if he isn't signed. And we'll probably end up with a terrible trade similar to the Turris trade.
I don't a trade would be similar to the Turris trade. One could easily make the argument that O'Reilly is a better player than Turris.
And it's not out of the realm of possibility that if the Avs decide to trade him that there could be some sort of negotiation window for the other team and O'Reilly
The longer this goes on, obviously, the worse the situation will get. My gut also tells me this isn't as much about money as it also is about being a top 2 center like chet mentioned. If RoR wants that, this isn't going to be resolved easily. If he thinks he's a top 2 guy and wants to also be paid like one, then it's going to end in a trade IMO.
RoR doesn't deserve more than what he's being offered. He's had a good year last season, but let's also give Landy a lot of credit for that. Before Landy, RoR was just a good defensive center with great work ethic, & so-so stats. I just get the feeling he wants to cash in on last season's results.
Personally, having watched the Avs for so many years, and especially this recent edition of the team. I think the Avs need to get a top-2 defender way more than they need O'Reilly back. The team has never really had an issue drafting or developing talented forwards, they have however had a near impossible time developing or drafting a defender capable of playing in the NHL at all.
I feel like this in an oppurtunity to get one of those types of players, with an asset that either no longer wants to play with the Avalanche, or has simply priced himself out of the Avs' plans. Either way, he is a high value player that could be turned into something that this team desperately requires.
Personally, having watched the Avs for so many years, and especially this recent edition of the team. I think the Avs need to get a top-2 defender way more than they need O'Reilly back. The team has never really had an issue drafting or developing talented forwards, they have however had a near impossible time developing or drafting a defender capable of playing in the NHL at all.
I feel like this in an oppurtunity to get one of those types of players, with an asset that either no longer wants to play with the Avalanche, or has simply priced himself out of the Avs' plans. Either way, he is a high value player that could be turned into something that this team desperately requires.
I'm starting to think that's where we may be at. RoR probably wants to play where he's a top center. He's not guaranteed that with the Avs & knows it. Otherwise, I bet he would have signed a deal by now. So, the next step may very well be a trade where the Avs try and get something they desperately need; a top 2 defenseman.
As each day passes, the more likely this ends in the Avs trading O'Reilly.
I'm starting to think that's where we may be at. RoR probably wants to play where he's a top center. He's not guaranteed that with the Avs & knows it. Otherwise, I bet he would have signed a deal by now. So, the next step may very well be a trade where the Avs try and get something they desperately need; a top 2 defenseman.
As each day passes, the more likely this ends in the Avs trading O'Reilly.
This is the feeling that I am getting as well, this feels like an accelerated Jordan Staal situation. O'Reilly wants to play somewhere where he is guaranteed a top-6 spot (much like how Varlamov wanted to play as a number one when we got him).
I've said it before, I think we've already seen the last of O'Reilly in an Avs jersey. However, I think the Avs will hold onto his rights until either the Avs hit a big losing streak, the trade deadline or the draft, before they use him to get an asset that they can live with.
Personally, having watched the Avs for so many years, and especially this recent edition of the team. I think the Avs need to get a top-2 defender way more than they need O'Reilly back. The team has never really had an issue drafting or developing talented forwards, they have however had a near impossible time developing or drafting a defender capable of playing in the NHL at all.
I feel like this in an oppurtunity to get one of those types of players, with an asset that either no longer wants to play with the Avalanche, or has simply priced himself out of the Avs' plans. Either way, he is a high value player that could be turned into something that this team desperately requires.
They've already traded for a top-2 defender and are busy trying to develop at least one other. The price to trade for a top-2 defender is beyond steep--look at what getting EJ cost--and an unsigned Ryan O'Reilly won't yield that.
And yes, drafting/developing talented forwards is a big issue right now. Duchene's development is a big question mark right now, Wolski and Stewart are gone (it may have been for good reasons, but no one can deny both had great talent), and Hishon is still making his way back from a concussion well over a year ago. We have a lot of two-way forwards who can be counted upon to score to a certain extent, but none are really considered a scoring forward in the traditional sense, which is what we desperately need right now.
And I'd argue we don't need so much a top-two defender who can do it all (that'd be nice though) as much as an offensive defender. Not too long ago, this team sported the highest-scoring defense in the league, and as a result had one of the most potent offenses in the league period. In trying to get bigger and tougher, they unfortunately sacrificed way too much of that ability to jump into the play. Hopefully Barrie and Elliott (and maybe Siemens) deliver that offense in time.
