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All Encompassing Tanking/Rebuilding/Selling at Deadline Thread 2.0

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Old
01-20-2013, 06:36 AM
  #76
Sorinth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Your argument is irrelevant as nobody here is suggesting we plan "which players to sign and which prospects to develop".

Part of the point of the surgical tank is to have redundancy. Yes, we could win a cup with a core of Galchenyuk/Subban/Price/Pacioretty, but only if everything goes right, which is unlikely. That's a good core but it doesn't have any redundancies, it's high-risk.

- By adding a top-5 pick, we improve our chances of having at least 1 superstar, never mind two.
- By adding several other top 60 picks, we introduce redunancies in our prospects who can become secondary player, and we will no longer need that each of Collberg, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, Kristo, Leblanc reach their ceilings; we'll be competitive if only a few of them reach their ceilings as we'll be doubling their ranks.
- We don't need to rely on specific players in the UFA market. We should go for the best players, and if we don't get them, too bad. Keep the cap space and try again next summer. Don't sign the leftovers as Gainey did a few times.

You can argue against planning all you want and in favor of being blind all you want, but the truth is each of the GMs of LA, Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh, etc had plans. They didn't put contenders together by accident. You need a plan specific to your situation.
Having more prospects is great but it's more important that the ones you already have develop properly. Your plan is to over 2 years dump Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Kaberle, Bourque. And when we are unable to get Malkin/Perry you plan to just use rookies instead. Which means we will end up rushing guys like Collberg, Gallagher into the NHL, they won't do well, they'll lose their confidence and they'll end up traded or busting. If we're lucky one or two might overcome the odds and develop anyways.

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Old
01-20-2013, 06:46 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
Kings traded youth for youth, they traded players in their early 20 for a +/- 25 years old Richards... and then traded a 25 yo Johnson for another 25 years old, Carter...

the Pens drafted top 5 five years in a row (Whitney, Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, Crosby)... and you can easily make the case for two of them being generational talents... in comparison, for the Habs to do that, they'd have to finish 26th or lower till the 16/17 season...

Chicago, the last time the Hawks got two picks or more in the first round before their cup win was in 2000*, they had two, two guys who played a combined 110 games in the NHL... they had more than a 2nd rounder multiple times, the best of the bunch, Bolland, was their own pick, the second best played for the Habs last season, Mike Blunden...

the "trade vets for extra picks" sure doesnt apply to them.


* same for Pens, last time they had two picks in the top 30 was in the late 80's / just to add, last time they had two 2nd round picks in the same draft was in 99', one of them never played the NHL, the other played around 50 games...
Core of the Kings were high picks...ie. Doughty, Brown, Kopitar. While they traded off the extra prospects and future picks to get players to put them over the top ie. Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Penner.

Many of recent cup winners did similar thing....Penguins, Hawks just a few years ago were drafting high before becoming Cup champions.

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01-20-2013, 06:51 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
If we are so bad that we finish in the basement two years in a row how do we suddenly go from that to contending in 2 years? Do you really think a 20 year old Galchenyuk and a 19 year old Mackinnon/Jones are good enough to turn a bottom dweller into a contender?
Yes. Yes I do. And what is your suggestion for contending without these young and excellent players?

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01-20-2013, 07:05 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by TheGoalJudge View Post
All I know is that the guys against tanking this year have a plan consisting of guys like Gionta, Cole, Markov, Bourque and Kaberle either finding time machines or suddenly learning how to play hockey and then retiring off into the sunset after winning us multiple cups...after leading us to a bottom 3 finish last year.

Their Plan B seems to be improving our team significantly without moving out our veterans which basically means we are exempt from the salary cap.

I also have learned that they would rather see out the contracts of these players instead of trading them for multiple draft picks and prospects and then simply signing someone of equal value in free agency.
Perfect. I still have not seen a better plan suggested than rebuild last year and this year.

In fact I have no idea why this topic is pissing so many guys off. It's obvious, and the Habs are in fact doing it.

We were correct.

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01-20-2013, 07:14 AM
  #80
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a 1-year surgical tank

So what was last year? An accidental stabbing.

D.A. Champion is asking for a one year tank. We had one last year. We finished 28th traded Gill & Andrei for picks and Cammalleri for a pick and prospect.

So i guess that wasn't good enough we need another and when that doesn't work he'll be demanding we go for a third and call it a one year clinical dismemberment and yet another after that and call that one a one year medical disembowelment.

I can go on and on. I can think of synonyms for at least another ten one-year last place finishes. And all you have accomplished is giving losing another name.

I suggest you write to Bergevin and let him know about this secret to success that you have discovered. Who knows he may fire that lame brain uneducated bum, Rick Dudley, and give you the job.


Last edited by onice: 01-20-2013 at 07:20 AM.
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Old
01-20-2013, 07:18 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
That sure doesnt sound like "1year surgical tank" or anything. But it does sound like being good at what you do (in this case, manage a NHL team)
Well. As far as I know, teams that finish 8th year after year don't get top 3 picks. That is the reality. Adjust to it.

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01-20-2013, 07:24 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If things go as I expect, and the Habs draft top-5 and pick up an addition top-60 pick or two, then I'll start a thread in the summer outlining the 2-year surgical transition.
Exactly. Good.

Off topic, you have typos today. I believe your are posting from a phone.

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01-20-2013, 07:31 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
There's no secret recipe for building a contender. If there was everyone would use it. At the end of the day you simply have to be better at your job then most other GMs. You should have a vision for how you want your team to play but you can't plan which UFAs to sign, which prospects develop, which players you get via trades.
Are you serious?

That's like me saying I can't plan buildings, they just happen. What the **** is that?

I will assume there was a language issue in your post, which is fine.

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01-20-2013, 07:38 AM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
this.
"At the end of the day you just have to be better than most GMs"

And you like that quote?

Good.

Then you'll love this one:

"At the end of the day you just have to win the cup."

I guess we can close this thread.

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Old
01-20-2013, 07:44 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Having more prospects is great but it's more important that the ones you already have develop properly. Your plan is to over 2 years dump Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Kaberle, Bourque. And when we are unable to get Malkin/Perry you plan to just use rookies instead. Which means we will end up rushing guys like Collberg, Gallagher into the NHL, they won't do well, they'll lose their confidence and they'll end up traded or busting. If we're lucky one or two might overcome the odds and develop anyways.
That is not the plan. Do not put your words in other's mouths here, it really pisses guys off. If you like to argue this way, go to China.

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01-20-2013, 07:47 AM
  #86
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This thread is absolutely pointless.... It REALLY needs to be closed!

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01-20-2013, 07:52 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by nyhabsfan View Post
This thread is absolutely pointless.... It REALLY needs to be closed!
This thread is interesting, and fun. If you do not like it, that is fine. If you want to close it, then **** off.

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Old
01-20-2013, 08:32 AM
  #88
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Losing on purpose is for losers, but if I were in this position, unless Chucky shines, send him back to the minors, hold out on Subban, and play with what we got. We may end up with quite a high draft pick under these conditions, get Subban at the price the GM wants, and give Chucky a year to get better and stronger with a taste of 5 games.

I think this could be considered tanking, even if the players do give'r!
Nobody is saying we should lose on purpose. Here's hoping the mods change the thread title soon.

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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
Only 47 games left and we havn't won 1!!!!!
Get used to it. I have a feeling this is going to be a rough year intentional or not.
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Originally Posted by damacles1156 View Post
No one losses on purpose,

The Kings simply traded away pieces that would increase chances of winning that were not part of a planed core.

I believe Chicago and Pitt did the same. All those teams stock piled draft picks; cause you are going to have some busts.
Not sure if it was planned or not but it worked. Washington's was definitely planned and other clubs have done this in the past.

Whether it's planned or not is irrelevant. It's been shown to work.
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
If we are so bad that we finish in the basement two years in a row how do we suddenly go from that to contending in 2 years? Do you really think a 20 year old Galchenyuk and a 19 year old Mackinnon/Jones are good enough to turn a bottom dweller into a contender?
Actually yes. Esp with the core we already have. If you add Mackinnon to Galchenyuk, Subban, Price + everything else, I think we'd be contenders in a few years. In fact, I don't see how we wouldn't be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by damacles1156 View Post
Take it from a Kings fan, any rebuild your ownership decides to do.

Is going to be a painful process. I say 2005 was the year the Kings really started the rebuild.

Taylor kept his picks and selected Kopitar/Quick.

Then was fired, and the rest is history. But Kings fans had to watch a lot of Bad hockey till 09-10..

I hope the Habs don't have to wait that long. You guys deserve a good team.
It's painful because we've been dragged into it kicking and screaming. Instead of trading Koivu and co. we let them walk. And then signed a bunch more mediocre FAs and gave away McD. That set us back at least five years... dumb thing to do.

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Old
01-20-2013, 10:29 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
I don't think you'll find anyone who is opposed to trading Bourque or Kaberle. At most some will say give them this season to see if they can bounce back since they have no value right now.
Right, we're always willing to give up guys who are useless. Of course the returns will also be useless.

If you want something of value, you have to give up something of value man.
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
I'd rather guys like Eller, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk play with and learn from guys like Gionta, Cole, Plekanec. If we give them roles/opportunities to succeed then they are more likely to reach their potential. Just throwing them out there with little support and letting them sink or swim won't help them
Keeping Cole is nice from a mentorship perspective I agree. But at the expense of a 1st rounder return? No.
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You know how they drafted 2nd overall? By rebuilding. Similarly, if the Habs had held on to Kostitsyn, Cammalleri and Gill last year we would not have drafted Galchenyuk.

The other pick that year was Teubert (not one of their own), traded for Dustin Penner who played a positive and productive role in the Kings cup run.

Let's look at the Kings core:

Doughty - tank pick
Kopitar - good pick
Brown - good pick
Quick - good 3rd round gem
Penner - acquired by giving up a good prospect
Richards - acquired by giving up two young players
Carter - acquired by giving up a 1st rounder and Jack Johnson
Scuderi - UFA signing
Kopitar was a 10th overall, definitely a rebuild pick.

And dealing away prospects and picks once you're a contender is fine if you're getting a vet to help put you over the top. The key is to assemble the team first and then do something like this, not the other way around.

Wings dealt away a prospect in Keith Primeau and a 1st for Brendan Shanahan and it led to cups. Dallas did the same thing wiht Iginla. Makes sense to do it when you're going for a championship but not before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
There's no secret recipe for building a contender. If there was everyone would use it. At the end of the day you simply have to be better at your job then most other GMs. You should have a vision for how you want your team to play but you can't plan which UFAs to sign, which prospects develop, which players you get via trades.
Actually there is a secret recipe. Sam Polloch understood it and others simply haven't seem to have caught on. Sometimes you take a step back to go forward by two. No you won't get a 1st overall as easily now as he did back then but the principles are still the same.

Rebuilds (intentional and unintentional) have led to tons of cups. Most cup winners are led by top pick superstars. And really the logic is quite simple. High picks lead to superstars and superstars lead to cups. That doesn't mean that if you have a superstar you'll win a cup. But good luck winning a cup without a superstar. Most cup winners have multiple superstars.

When was the last time we had one let alone two?
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
I think DA should email his "plan" to Columbus, they just can't figure out how come all their high drafting isn't working out so well.
Oh man you kill me...

Boy that was a good one and you've changed everyone's mind. Good work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Having more prospects is great but it's more important that the ones you already have develop properly. Your plan is to over 2 years dump Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Kaberle, Bourque. And when we are unable to get Malkin/Perry you plan to just use rookies instead. Which means we will end up rushing guys like Collberg, Gallagher into the NHL, they won't do well, they'll lose their confidence and they'll end up traded or busting. If we're lucky one or two might overcome the odds and develop anyways.
What makes you think they won't develop properly anyway? Tons of superstars developed in losing environments. Hell PK Subban is developing just fine here and did so without Markov.

Much better off getting more prospects than wasting the trade value of some of these older guys. And we'll still have vets here man, it's not going to be a kindergarten class.
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Originally Posted by onice View Post
So what was last year? An accidental stabbing.
Last year was the product of years of incompetence topped off by a pathetic GM who cared more about saving his job than the long term benefit of the team. Thomas Freaking Kaberle are you serious?

As for it being a one off... that remains to be seen. We're all sitting here thinking that it was a one time thing but we've done a ton of damage to this team with our 'quick fixes' over the years that we may be bottom feeders for the next couple of years whether we want to or not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by onice View Post

D.A. Champion is asking for a one year tank. We had one last year. We finished 28th traded Gill & Andrei for picks and Cammalleri for a pick and prospect.
We benched Andrei immediately before trading him robbing him of any value that he had. Cammy was only traded becasue our GM was petty and it wasn't for picks. The picks were incidental as the principal was Bourque (amazingly a guy who was actually slightly older and has a longer contract.) Saying it was for picks is like pointing to Tom Pyatt in the Gomez disaster and saying that's why we made the move...
Quote:
Originally Posted by onice View Post
So i guess that wasn't good enough we need another and when that doesn't work he'll be demanding we go for a third and call it a one year clinical dismemberment and yet another after that and call that one a one year medical disembowelment.
Last year was unintentional and if it happens this year (very real possiblilty) it will be unintentional again. If we'd have done this INTENTIONALLY years ago we wouldn't be in this situation.

So break the cycle and get it over with! Trade vets with value and get picks and prospects.
Quote:
Originally Posted by onice View Post
I can go on and on. I can think of synonyms for at least another ten one-year last place finishes. And all you have accomplished is giving losing another name.
Have you been asleep for the last 15 freaking years? What the hell is wrong with you man? Did you like watching us fight for 8th every year? And you sit there and pretend like last year was an intentional rebuild?

How the **** is trading for Kaberle rebuilding? How is adding Bourque (with a longer contract) rebuilding? It's NOT. We got Galchenyuk last year unintentionally kicking and screaming the whole way.

We've made it far harder than it has to be and there's no indication this is going to change.
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Originally Posted by onice View Post
I suggest you write to Bergevin and let him know about this secret to success that you have discovered. Who knows he may fire that lame brain uneducated bum, Rick Dudley, and give you the job.
I suggest you take a realistic look at this team's past 15 years. I suggest you take a realistic look at the state of the club today. Take your head out of your butt and have a look at reality. We aren't contenders and dealing away the few vets that we have with value makes a whole lot of sense. And if we don't do it (and I don't think we will) this whole rebuild is just going to be that much more painful.

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Old
01-20-2013, 11:48 AM
  #90
DAChampion
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
I think DA should email his "plan" to Columbus, they just can't figure out how come all their high drafting isn't working out so well.
They traded Jacub Voracek and Sean Couturier for Jeff Carter for crying out loud. Please tell me, how does that constitute tanking rather than trying to make the playoffs?



Last edited by DAChampion: 01-20-2013 at 12:12 PM.
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01-20-2013, 12:09 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Having more prospects is great but it's more important that the ones you already have develop properly. Your plan is to over 2 years dump Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Kaberle, Bourque. And when we are unable to get Malkin/Perry you plan to just use rookies instead. Which means we will end up rushing guys like Collberg, Gallagher into the NHL, they won't do well, they'll lose their confidence and they'll end up traded or busting. If we're lucky one or two might overcome the odds and develop anyways.
In 2008-09, Gainey wanted to make the playoffs, and so he didn't trade Kovalev, Koivu, Tanguay, Komisarek, etc at the trade deadline. He held on to them.

But then we lost them all anyway. Does that mean our young players had no one to learn from? No, because when you have cash you can always sign mediocre players on the UFA market. You can't replace stars, but you can replace 2nd and 3rd line players and 3rd pairing dmen. We got Gionta, Cammalleri, Spacek, Gill, and could have had Gomez for cheaper.

We would have been better off getting draft picks for Kovalev, Tanguay, Koivu, Komisarek and then replacing them, rather than just replacing them without getting draft picks in the first place.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Well. As far as I know, teams that finish 8th year after year don't get top 3 picks. That is the reality. Adjust to it.
Part of the problem is that this team's luck in recent years is clouding people's opinions.

Do you agree that in any given year, an 8th place team is equivalent to a 9th place team in skill, and the difference is just due to luck?

I bet you do.

We might even agree that the difference between 7,8,9,10 is almost entirely luck. I think it is.

In the post-lockout era, we finished:

2005-06, 8th place
2006-07, 10th place
2007-08, 1st place
2008-09, 8th place
2009-10, 8th place
2010-11, 6th place
2011-12, 15th place

In the years where luck mattered, we were 8th, 10th, 8th, 8th, 6th. Out of those five years, we were lucky 4 times. We got to see the early playoff exits that people think is the apex of hockey. It could have just as easily been 9th, 7th, 11th, 10th, 9th. If we had had that virtually identical result in regular season standings, most of these boards, particularly the people who just react to life rather than taking a step back and thinking and being active agents in life, would likely be in favor of a proper rebuild. Their minds are clouded by the fact we were lucky. We didn't need to be in 8th place for 3 years out of 6. The same exact teams could have just as easily finished in 9th, and if that **non-structural** change had happened people would have different opinions.

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01-20-2013, 12:14 PM
  #92
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Not to mention back in 2006-07 when we could have sold Sheldon Souray for a king's ransom. Heck, that was the year where we got Josh Gorges and a 1st rounder that turned out the be Max Pacioretty.

Is it a coincidence that it turned out the be the Habs best trade of the decade? One where we actually dealt a veteran for a young player and a draft choice?

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01-20-2013, 12:18 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
About as much as tells me that Galchenyuk won't be another Nikita Filatov.

Not much at all.

That's why we should hedge our bets and maximize our odds. Note that each of Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Los Angeles had draft busts.

There are no guarantees in life, hence, you need redundancies.
Jack Johnson is not a bust like Filatov though, he just didn't become a (good enough) #1, like Bouwmeester did not either. I'd rather have a team that tries to win, that signs UFAs, that is built with intelligence. What is the point in trading our players for 2nd round picks ?

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01-20-2013, 12:21 PM
  #94
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Jack Johnson is not a bust like Filatov though, he just didn't become a (good enough) #1, like Bouwmeester did not either. I'd rather have a team that tries to win, that signs UFAs, that is built with intelligence. What is the point in trading our players for 2nd round picks ?
Well, we've tried the FA route for 15 years. How's it worked out for us?

What was the point in dealing McD for Gomez and signing Gionta? Did it make us contenders? Are you happy with the last 15 years? Do you think we'd be further ahead if we'd rebuilt 5 or even 10 years ago?

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01-20-2013, 12:22 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by onice View Post
So what was last year? An accidental stabbing.

D.A. Champion is asking for a one year tank. We had one last year. We finished 28th traded Gill & Andrei for picks and Cammalleri for a pick and prospect.

So i guess that wasn't good enough we need another and when that doesn't work he'll be demanding we go for a third and call it a one year clinical dismemberment and yet another after that and call that one a one year medical disembowelment.

I can go on and on. I can think of synonyms for at least another ten one-year last place finishes. And all you have accomplished is giving losing another name.

I suggest you write to Bergevin and let him know about this secret to success that you have discovered. Who knows he may fire that lame brain uneducated bum, Rick Dudley, and give you the job.
Best post in this thread AINEC. I love how Washington is always brought up as an example of why this strategy works. lmao. I'm not sure if I missed something they've done. Their claim to fame is getting knocked out by the habs. Sound reasoning there.

I've yet to see anything that suggests the Washington Capitals model is a model to emulate.

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01-20-2013, 12:26 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
Jack Johnson is not a bust like Filatov though, he just didn't become a (good enough) #1, like Bouwmeester did not either. I'd rather have a team that tries to win, that signs UFAs, that is built with intelligence. What is the point in trading our players for 2nd round picks ?
Why? Because of this guy:


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01-20-2013, 12:29 PM
  #97
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Well, we've tried the FA route for 15 years. How's it worked out for us?

What was the point in dealing McD for Gomez and signing Gionta? Did it make us contenders? Are you happy with the last 15 years? Do you think we'd be further ahead if we'd rebuilt 5 or even 10 years ago?
Obviously I'm not happy about the last 15 years. But to me it's about having a line of bad GMs in a row rather than the lack of tanking. I hope Bergevin does a better job. We lost Koivu and Souray and Komisarek, and Ribeiro and Sergei Kostitsyn and to an extend Grabovski and so many more players... for nothing. I'm just weary about tanking because it looks like a magical solution to me. I think having a good GM is the way to go.

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01-20-2013, 12:35 PM
  #98
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Why? Because of this guy:

We need quality, not quantity.

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01-20-2013, 12:36 PM
  #99
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Best post in this thread AINEC. I love how Washington is always brought up as an example of why this strategy works. lmao. I'm not sure if I missed something they've done. Their claim to fame is getting knocked out by the habs. Sound reasoning there.

I've yet to see anything that suggests the Washington Capitals model is a model to emulate.
Washington was a legitimate contender for several years.

That's the best you can do at the end of the day, build a legitimate contender.

I'm sure if Pittsburgh had lost to Detroit in 2008 you'd be arguing that "Pittsburgh has not won anything". It's a weak argument as it is luck-dependent.

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01-20-2013, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
We need quality, not quantity.
Any top-60 pick is quality with Trevor Timmins.

Subban, Latendresse, and Lapierre were all 2nd round picks.

More recently, Kristo and Collberg have been 2nd round picks, and the experts on this site are enthusiastic about their chances of success.

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