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Old
01-20-2013, 03:50 AM
  #376
Malkin4Top6Wingerz
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
But if he played poorly overall, then keeping play in the offensive zone isn't "making up for" anything. It's simply an asset that wasn't good enough to make him a net positive value player.

Hence the Martin example.
I don't think Lovejoy played poorly overall as a Penguin. He just has a bad habit of making unforced errors at inopportune times that stick in the back of fan's minds. I do think his ability to drive play is an asset of his, perhaps his only real redeeming one, and I find him quite suited for his current role.

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And yet clearly, they can be misleading. I think they are here, with Lovejoy as they were with Martin.
Before going any further we ought to acknowledge that the expectations for Martin and Lovejoy are worlds apart. One is expected to perform as a top pairing defender and the other is supposed to fill the role of serviceable 6th / 7th defenseman. What is considered adequate for a player of Lovejoy's stature probably isn't the same as the guy you're paying $5m a year to.

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I'm not sure Strait's departure is as inconsequential as you believe. Reliable depth defensemen can play a huge role in a team's success.
If there were anything but eye tests taken over a near meaningless sample size that showed Strait as a better defenseman than Lovejoy I'd be right there with you. I just don't see it.

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6'1" defensive defensemen with 13 games NHL experience don't exactly attract a lot of attention - I wouldn't use that as a fair indicator of his quality.
Teams spend way too much on scouting for fringe NHLers like Strait to go under the radar. There just wasn't enough to go on for other teams to take a leap of faith on him. I can't blame the Penguins for employing the same thought process and sticking with what they have.

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It'll be interesting to see how he fares in NYI.
I'm sure I'll hear it on here every time he's on the ice for a goal.

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01-20-2013, 06:20 AM
  #377
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I cannot trust anything that takes a team statistic, gives it out on an individual basis, and then bases an advanced statistic around it.

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01-20-2013, 08:36 AM
  #378
Malkin4Top6Wingerz
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
I cannot trust anything that takes a team statistic, gives it out on an individual basis, and then bases an advanced statistic around it.
Why on earth would that be your hang up with Corsi? Are you skeptical of a player's individual ability to influence this statistic? Do you think that somebody might believe Dupuis is as good as Crosby if they played on the same line all year and shared the same Corsi rating?

Corsi isn't a stat that you sort by to determine effectiveness, ability, or talent. It simply tells us what the puck is doing when they are on the ice. Players with strong Corsi ratings generate a lot more shots for than against, and shots have been found to heavily correlate with scoring chances, which obviously correlate with goals. That is the connection that Corsi makes, and while it's not perfect, it has significant predictive value when used within it's limitations. Quality of teammates, competition, adjusting for zone starts, drawing from an adequate sample size, all those things are important. Most of the people who bash Corsi are the same people who go on BTN and pick out a few out of context statistical anomalies and go LOL ADVANCED STATS. These are also likely the same people who treat basic counting stats like goals, assists, wins for goalies, etc. as the hockey gospel.

Baseball went through the same exact phase 15-20 years ago with the same kind of arguments against it. How many people believed that pitchers had a significant influence on balls that were put in play before DIPS was invented? How many people were convinced that bunting, stealing bases, and sacrifice flies were the correct play in countless situations? How many people thought like Joe Morgan before Moneyball was popularized?

I guess I just don't get it. Why must the view on hockey sabremetrics be so polarized? Can't people recognize the value in a statistic just because it is not a magic 8 ball for evaluating player ability? There will never be one in hockey, just like goals and assists aren't all encompassing but can provide a basic look into player ability. Corsi is that except it's more precise, more focused, because it attempts to tackle what is the most basic goal of the sport: being on the ice for more goals scored than your opponents. If you have a lot of guys like that on your team chances are you're going to be in pretty good shape.

I'm sort of rambling here but people need to open their eyes and at least attempt to understand what it is they're bashing before dismissing it outright. I can at least respect that.

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01-20-2013, 08:55 AM
  #379
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Hockey isn't baseball. You can't individualize a players stats in hockey, aside from goals and assists, and even then, those stats can be somewhat misleading. It's the ultimate team game, and trying to use an advanced statistic isn't going to work.

James Neal taking a shot shouldn't have an outcome on Paul Martin's advanced statistic. Paul Martin blowing coverage and allowing a guy to score a goal, shouldn't **** up James Neal's +/-. That's the problem I have with hockey statistics.

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01-20-2013, 09:08 AM
  #380
Malkin4Top6Wingerz
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JTG, I'm almost positive I've seen you defending Fleury on the basis of win totals and his Stanley Cup win. Before I go any further, can you confirm that and save me the research?

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01-20-2013, 09:30 AM
  #381
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eventually the stats should trend towards what that player himself should have since he is the only constant in all of them. short term they are completely useless. long term they are pretty mediocre, but some trends can be seen. Nicklas Lidstrom being a +450 for his career gives you an idea about him as a player. Dick Tarnstrom being a career -86 does as well. +/- of a single game doesn't tell you a thing about a players game though. Martin was a -1 last night while Tangradi was a +1. Hell, +/- for a season isn't really much better. 2011 Lidstrom was a -2 for the season. He was still their best player. Martin being a +9 last year doesn't really fit how he played either.

Basically, hockey stats are nearly useless without context; especially short term.

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01-20-2013, 09:31 AM
  #382
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Wins isn't an advanced statistic, but goal tending is the only position where a statistic like save % can reveal how well a goalie is playing. GAA can be kind of misleading because goals against are a product of how well/poorly the defensemen are playing on your team.

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01-20-2013, 09:31 AM
  #383
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
JTG, I'm almost positive I've seen you defending Fleury on the basis of win totals and his Stanley Cup win. Before I go any further, can you confirm that and save me the research?
You mean defending Fleury on the basis that he has shown the ability to backstop a team to multiple Cup finals, and win one? Yeah sure...



[/research]

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01-20-2013, 09:34 AM
  #384
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Originally Posted by WickedWrister View Post
Wins isn't an advanced statistic, but goal tending is the only position where a statistic like save % can reveal how well a goalie is playing. GAA can be kind of misleading because goals against are a product of how well/poorly the defensemen are playing on your team.
And goaltending statistics are as much skewed as any. It has a ton to do with what type of team they are playing behind. Save percentage doesn't track quality of shots faced. 5 shots from outside the dots =/= 5 shots in the slot, but the stat would tell you otherwise.

Fleury has played poorly before, and has earned some poor stats, but he has also played well and got hung out to dry in a lot of the instances where his stats haven't been good.

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01-20-2013, 09:44 AM
  #385
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With how the Penguins play their system you're going to give up some chances, golden chances if you will, and Fleury is the lone backstop at that point. He wasn't winning many of those lately last year, and it rely's on the system having the team scoring more goals being in the zone of the other team and keeping them there.

Fleury needs to use his superb shootout poise on those that get through.

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01-20-2013, 09:46 AM
  #386
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
And goaltending statistics are as much skewed as any. It has a ton to do with what type of team they are playing behind. Save percentage doesn't track quality of shots faced. 5 shots from outside the dots =/= 5 shots in the slot, but the stat would tell you otherwise.

Fleury has played poorly before, and has earned some poor stats, but he has also played well and got hung out to dry in a lot of the instances where his stats haven't been good.
I agree. Good post.

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01-20-2013, 10:12 AM
  #387
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
eventually the stats should trend towards what that player himself should have since he is the only constant in all of them. short term they are completely useless. long term they are pretty mediocre, but some trends can be seen. Nicklas Lidstrom being a +450 for his career gives you an idea about him as a player. Dick Tarnstrom being a career -86 does as well. +/- of a single game doesn't tell you a thing about a players game though. Martin was a -1 last night while Tangradi was a +1. Hell, +/- for a season isn't really much better. 2011 Lidstrom was a -2 for the season. He was still their best player. Martin being a +9 last year doesn't really fit how he played either.

Basically, hockey stats are nearly useless without context; especially short term.
Edit: NM checked the box score and he got his helpers on the pp and with the goalie pulled.

He then gets a minus because Kunitz doesn't know his responsibility... Nice.


Last edited by Mr Jiggyfly: 01-20-2013 at 10:22 AM.
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01-20-2013, 10:23 AM
  #388
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Originally Posted by Malkin4Top6Wingerz View Post
I don't think Lovejoy played poorly overall as a Penguin. He just has a bad habit of making unforced errors at inopportune times that stick in the back of fan's minds. I do think his ability to drive play is an asset of his, perhaps his only real redeeming one, and I find him quite suited for his current role.
Our blueline already has more than its share of players who make unforced errors at inopportune times. Whatever redeeming values Lovejoy has, we already have them in spades. What we don't have is sturdy, reliable defensemen who keep the unforced errors at inopportune times to a minimum.

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Before going any further we ought to acknowledge that the expectations for Martin and Lovejoy are worlds apart. One is expected to perform as a top pairing defender and the other is supposed to fill the role of serviceable 6th / 7th defenseman. What is considered adequate for a player of Lovejoy's stature probably isn't the same as the guy you're paying $5m a year to.
Lovejoy and Martin's relative quality isn't the issue though. I only used Martin as an example to show the folly of slavishly following advanced statistics to determine quality.

Martin had the best Corsi of all our top 4 defensemen (including Letang) but he was atrocious last year by everyone's admission.

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If there were anything but eye tests taken over a near meaningless sample size that showed Strait as a better defenseman than Lovejoy I'd be right there with you. I just don't see it.
Lovejoy struggled all last year. Strait didn't have the same NHL opportunities, but was rock-solid in the A and acquitted himself very well in the bigs when he did get his chances. Can't really ask for more than that.

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Teams spend way too much on scouting for fringe NHLers like Strait to go under the radar. There just wasn't enough to go on for other teams to take a leap of faith on him. I can't blame the Penguins for employing the same thought process and sticking with what they have.
Quality players fly under the radar and go through waivers all the time.

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I'm sure I'll hear it on here every time he's on the ice for a goal.
I won't update weekly.

But if he keeps an NHL job this year and looks good in a role we could've used him in, I won't hesitate to bring it up, haha.

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01-20-2013, 11:38 AM
  #389
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Originally Posted by eXile59 View Post
Bylsma was more familiar with Lovejoy than Strait so Strait went. Just like the scouting team being more familiar with Pouliot so Forsberg went. If this organization doesn't start working out of it's comfort zone it's going to fall behind.
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Originally Posted by ColePens View Post
Familiarity means nothing. What you do on the ice means everything. If that's what Bylsma is doing, he needs fired right now. I agree that the comfort zone needs to be eliminated.

Guys, everyone also needs to remember: MOST defenseman (that aren't named Doughty, Letang, Subban, Myers and couple of others) need a long time to develop, and most don't "peak" until their LATE 20's or even into their 30's.


I always like to point to the Lidstrom example: although he was great earlier in his career too, he didn't win a single Norris until he was 30. Then, by the time he retired at 41, he had won 6 more.


It's still possible that Lovejoy or some of these other guys become much better players in the coming years. Want a recent example from our own team? Look at Deryk Engelland. This is why it always pissed me off when people talked about how bad Goligoski or other early-20's defensemen that we had were. Some, we can see their greatness right away (Letang, Harrington), but most of them will need a lot of time.


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It is looking pretty bad that we did not keep the kid seeing how we are trading Martin and Orpik.

Not Martin AND Orpik, just Orpik.

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01-20-2013, 01:05 PM
  #390
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It's still possible that Lovejoy or some of these other guys become much better players in the coming years. Want a recent example from our own team? Look at Deryk Engelland. This is why it always pissed me off when people talked about how bad Goligoski or other early-20's defensemen that we had were. Some, we can see their greatness right away (Letang, Harrington), but most of them will need a lot of time.
Yeah but for every Engelland, who is only a bottom pairing Dman mind you, there's about 100 Lovejoys. Lovejoy is 28 years old by the way. I think that possiblity has long since passed. I agree guys need time especially on defense. At the same time if you're 24-25 and you haven't separated yourself, maybe you'll turn into something but I can't blame a GM for moving an asset like that.

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01-20-2013, 03:16 PM
  #391
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Brian Strait played very well for the NYI tonight. I have been a fan of his since last years playoffs. I remember many Pens fans talking about him and Depres entering the league and being solid parts of the defense. So surprised they let him go and kept Dylan Reese/Lovejoy as I thought he was part of the future. He is already better than Finley and Carkner. The jury is still out on Thomas Hickey but this pick up seems to be a very solid one.

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01-21-2013, 09:51 AM
  #392
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post

I don't follow. Strait was claimed, and very early on in the waiver procedure. AFAIK, 3 teams passed on him - Columbus, Edmonton, and Montreal. NYI was 4th in the waiver order based on the previous season's standings.

I guess they didn't check his Corsi numbers.
I don't know if this rules changed, but I thought since the Isles already claimed Hickey, that means they moved to last place on the waiver claim list. Which means that 29 teams passed on Strait. But again, I'm not sure if this correct.


Last edited by Milliardo: 01-21-2013 at 10:23 AM.
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01-21-2013, 10:00 AM
  #393
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I don't know it this rules changed, but I thought since the Isles already claimed Hickey, that means they moved to last place on the waiver claim list. Which means that 29 team passed on Strait. But again, I'm not sure if this correct.
Very interesting point. I'd love to find out as well.

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01-21-2013, 11:44 AM
  #394
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Very interesting point. I'd love to find out as well.
I'm very positive that it used to be like that and I don't think it changed (wouldn't make sense), I'm just not 100% sure, can someone confirm?


Last edited by Milliardo: 01-22-2013 at 01:51 AM.
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01-21-2013, 11:44 AM
  #395
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I think we can move on from Brian Strait. He's gone and there are plenty of D in the system to bring up. He's an UFA this summer so if he really becomes a player and they want him back he will be available, unless of coarse, the Islanders lock him up before the end of the season. I'm sure he's thankful for the opportunity to show he can play in the NHL. It didn't look like the Pens were going to give it to him. We will see his progress, first hand, pretty soon and often.

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01-21-2013, 11:50 AM
  #396
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He's in the line up tonight playing alongside Streit.

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01-21-2013, 11:52 AM
  #397
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Originally Posted by BROOKLYnKNIGHTS View Post
Brian Strait played very well for the NYI tonight. I have been a fan of his since last years playoffs. I remember many Pens fans talking about him and Depres entering the league and being solid parts of the defense. So surprised they let him go and kept Dylan Reese/Lovejoy as I thought he was part of the future. He is already better than Finley and Carkner. The jury is still out on Thomas Hickey but this pick up seems to be a very solid one.
Good to hear. Thanks for sharing. I hope Brian Strait does very well for you guys (just not better than Bortuzzo).

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01-21-2013, 11:53 AM
  #398
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Originally Posted by Milliardo View Post
I don't know if this rules changed, but I thought since the Isles already claimed Hickey, that means they moved to last place on the waiver claim list. Which means that 29 teams passed on Strait. But again, I'm not sure if this correct.
Here's what the old CBA said about priority for waiver claims.

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13.19 Priority for Waiver Claim(s):
If only one Club makes a claim for the Player on whom Waivers have been requested, such Player shall be transferred to that Club. In the event that more than one Club makes a claim for such Player, he shall be transferred to the claiming Club having earned the lowest percentage of possible points in the League standing at the time of the request for Waivers or, if Waivers are requested outside the playing season, then to the Club having earned the lowest percentage of possible points in the preceding season's schedule of Regular Season Games. If the successful Waiver claim is made before November 1st then the priority shall be determined by the final standing in the League's Regular Season schedule in the preceding season.

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01-21-2013, 11:57 AM
  #399
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He's in the line up tonight playing alongside Streit.
Mark Streit is a disaster in his own end so i'm sure they want a guy that's not going to stray too far from the defensive zone as his partner. If Brian Strait can do that then I think he'll be a fixture on the Islanders blue line for a few years anyway.

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01-21-2013, 12:08 PM
  #400
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Originally Posted by BROOKLYnKNIGHTS View Post
Brian Strait played very well for the NYI tonight. I have been a fan of his since last years playoffs. I remember many Pens fans talking about him and Depres entering the league and being solid parts of the defense. So surprised they let him go and kept Dylan Reese/Lovejoy as I thought he was part of the future. He is already better than Finley and Carkner. The jury is still out on Thomas Hickey but this pick up seems to be a very solid one.
Thanks for rubbing salt in our wounds. But am glad to see he played well. Hopefully he earns a full time spot and excels... just not against us.

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