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2012-13 Penalty Liabilities and Assets

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01-21-2013, 09:30 AM
  #1
tarheelhockey
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2012-13 Penalty Liabilities and Assets

This idea has been tossed around in the past, and Boom Boom Anton is due credit for resurrecting it.

The purpose of this thread is to track which Hurricanes have been the biggest liabilities to the team in terms of taking penalties; and which players have been most valuable in drawing penalties that lead to goals.

Player Min. PKs Dbl-Min. PKs Maj. PKs PPs Ended 5-v-3s Created Goals Against
Brett Bellemore - - - - - -
Drayson Bowman 7 - - - - 1
Zach Boychuk - - - - - -
Tim Brent 2 - - 1 - -
Joe Corvo 7 - - 1 1 2
Zac Dalpe - - - - - -
Patrick Dwyer 4 - - - - 1
Dan Ellis - - - - - -
Justin Faulk 4 - - 1 - -
Tim Gleason 3 - - 1 1 2
Jay Harrison 15 - - - 2 3
Jussi Jokinen 9 - - - - 5
Michal Jordan - - - - - -
Chad LaRose 7 - - 1 1 -
Jamie McBain 4 1 - 1 1 2
Ryan Murphy 1 - - - - -
Riley Nash 4 - - 1 - 1
Andreas Nodl 1 - - - - 1
Joni Pitkanen 6 - - 1 - -
Tuomo Ruutu 1 - - - - -
Bobby Sanguinetti 2 - - - 1 1
Alex Semin 14 - - - - 2
Jeff Skinner 9 - - 1 - 2
Eric Staal 19 - - 2 - 3
Jordan Staal 14 - - 2 - 5
Brett Sutter 1 - - - - -
Jiri Tlusty 8 - - - - 2
Tim Wallace 1 - 1 - - -
Cam Ward - - - - - -
Kevin Westgarth 5 - - - - -

Key

Minor PKs - 2-minute penalties that create a PP for the opponent for any amount of time
Double-Minor PKs - 4-minute penalties that create a PP for the opponent for any amount of time
Maj. PKs - 5-minute penalties that create a PP for the opponent for any amount of time
PPs Ended - Penalties taken during a Hurricanes PP
3-v-5s Created - Penalties of any length which created a 3-v-5 PK for any amount of time
Goals Against - Goals scored by the opponent on PPs that result from the player's specific penalty. 3-v-5 goals result in points awarded to both penalized players.

Player Penalties Drawn PKs Ended PP Goals Created
Brett Bellemore 2 - -
Marc-Andre Bergeron 1 - 1
Drayson Bowman 8 1 -
Zach Boychuk 1 - -
Tim Brent 2 - -
Joe Corvo 3 - -
Zac Dalpe 2 - -
Patrick Dwyer 7 2 -
Dan Ellis 1 - -
Justin Faulk 4 - -
Tim Gleason 8 4 1
Jay Harrison 2 - -
Jussi Jokinen 2 - -
Chad LaRose 6 - 1
Jamie McBain 6 1 2
Riley Nash 4 - -
Andreas Nodl - - -
Justin Peters 2 - -
Joni Pitkanen 3 - -
Tuomo Ruutu 1 - -
Bobby Sanguinetti 7 - 4
Alex Semin 9 2 1
Jeff Skinner 22 - 6
Eric Staal 13 - 1
Jordan Staal 11 - 1
Brett Sutter 1 - -
Jiri Tlusty 6 1 2
Tim Wallace 6 1 1
Cam Ward 2 - 1
Kevin Westgarth 1 - 1

Penalties Drawn - As listed by the NHL's official scoresheet.
PKs Ended - Penalties drawn during a penalty kill. A PKE point will still be awarded even if the drawn penalty only reduces the PK to a 3-v-4.
PP Goals Created - PP goals resulting from the specific penalty that the player drew. 5-v-3 goals will result in points being awarded to both players who drew penalties; in theory the same player could get both points.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 04-22-2013 at 09:52 PM.
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01-21-2013, 09:50 AM
  #2
Oenatzu
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This could turn out to be a really interesting research.

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01-21-2013, 09:50 AM
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tarheelhockey
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Game 1 @ Florida Panthers
1/19/2013
5-1 Loss



1st Period
05:36 - Corvo - Min. PK (cross checking) +1 Goal Against
08:35 - J. Staal - Penalty Drawn
14:15 - Ward - Penalty Drawn
14:54 - Corvo - Min. PK (holding) +1 Goal Against
16:07 - Skinner - Min. PK (hooking) +1 Goal Against

2nd Period
11:20 - Skinner - Penalty Drawn
17:46 - Semin - Min. PK (cross checking)
17:46 - Semin - Min. PK (unsportsmanlike conduct)
18:05 - Gleason - Penalty Drawn - PK Ended
19:56 - LaRose - Min. PK (tripping) - 3-v-5 created

3rd Period
03:47 - Gleason - Penalty Drawn
14:01 - Boychuk - Penalty Drawn
16:37 - Harrison - Penalty Drawn

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01-21-2013, 12:27 PM
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Joe McGrath
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Corvo's 2nd penalty also ended a PP.

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01-21-2013, 12:30 PM
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Lazyking
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I know this may not work but how about charting good penalties? Like ones that prevent a breakaway goal?

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01-21-2013, 12:34 PM
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Finlandia WOAT
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Further, you may want to divide them into penalties due to shoddy officiating rather than poor play.

For example, Gleason's double major for a "high stick" on Mathieu Perreault, when in reality Perreault hit himself in the face with the butt of his stick.

If that is too much hassle, put an error column like the adjusted plus minus.

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01-21-2013, 12:36 PM
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Boom Boom Anton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
Further, you may want to divide them into penalties due to shoddy officiating rather than poor play.
Problem is, bad calls are part of the game. There are many times when a guy get's away with a penalty without a call also, so in the end, I think those things even out.

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01-21-2013, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boom Boom Anton View Post
Problem is, bad calls are part of the game. There are many times when a guy get's away with a penalty without a call also, so in the end, I think those things even out.
If we are keeping track of uncalled penalties, than sure.

But I see worth in keeping an asterisk to denote how often a player is called for a weak (or no) penalty. It would essentially keep tabs on how that player is viewed by the refs.

I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if Semin get the bad end of the stick much more often than Joe Corvo.

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01-21-2013, 01:06 PM
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Boom Boom Anton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
If we are keeping track of uncalled penalties, than sure.

But I see worth in keeping an asterisk to denote how often a player is called for a weak (or no) penalty. It would essentially keep tabs on how that player is viewed by the refs.
Ok, whatever. I think it's fine as is, but if tarheel wants to add to it, fine by me. I can easily just ignore the asterisks as I still contend all that evens out in the end.

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01-21-2013, 01:08 PM
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What is the significance of whether or not a goal was scored on the ensuing powerplay?

That is the kind of thinking that should be left to Jeremy Roenick and not people interested in meaningful statistics.

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01-21-2013, 01:14 PM
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Boom Boom Anton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallym View Post
What is the significance of whether or not a goal was scored on the ensuing powerplay?

That is the kind of thinking that should be left to Jeremy Roenick and not people interested in meaningful statistics.
If you don't like it, you can, you know..ignore the thread instead of coming in with a condescending attitude.

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01-21-2013, 01:24 PM
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Novacane
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I think it's pretty clear that if a goal is scored on a powerplay, the penalty that led to the powerplay had some effect on the game.

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01-21-2013, 01:26 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
Corvo's 2nd penalty also ended a PP.
Thanks. I'm going to go back and fix that as soon as I'm done with this post.

^ Y'all please fact-check me on this stuff! The tables are a pain sometimes and it's easy to lose track of the points.


- re: bad penalties, the main thing stopping me from charting them is a lack of video to review. I don't have access to complete game replays, so personally my best contribution is to track the "on paper" aspects of penalties. If someone would like to keep a tally on good/bad calls, good/bad penalties to take, that would be awesome. I'd be happy to merge it with the table in the OP.

- Re: the significance of goals scored after a penalty, to some extent it's a fluff stat. My personal theory is that it's going to hit a guy like Corvo the hardest (a defenseman who tends to take penalties), followed by the important defensive players, then the guys who are just irrelevant to defense altogether will bring up the rear (Skinner, Semin). We'll see if that theory bears out. But anyway, no it is not a rigorous stat but it is one that I frequently see on "I wish they kept track of..." lists. As long as we're keeping track of situational penalty-taking (which IMO is a rigorously relevant set of stats), the goal-after number is an easy add-on.

Again, I'm just one guy here so everyone please feel welcome to continue to contribute by means of fact-checking, criticism, observations, etc.

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01-21-2013, 01:55 PM
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The drawing or taking of a penalty is, for the most part, unrelated to the success of the powerplay/penalty kill that follows.

I like the rest of the stuff. The idea of adding asterisks when the penalty prevented a scoring chance is relevant.

There is more stuff that could be done in a meaningful way that could make it even more interesting, atlhough it'd be more work.

That last stat just doesn't fit in with what it appears is trying to be accomplished.

ed: if you're looking for goals cost/gained, then just multiply it by the PP%/PK%. A penalty drawn by a team with a 17% PP is worth .17 goals.


Last edited by wallym: 01-21-2013 at 02:02 PM. Reason: re tarheel
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01-21-2013, 01:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novacane View Post
I think it's pretty clear that if a goal is scored on a powerplay, the penalty that led to the powerplay had some effect on the game.

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01-21-2013, 02:11 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallym View Post
The drawing or taking of a penalty is, for the most part, unrelated to the success of the powerplay/penalty kill that follows.
I think (again, just a theory) that we're going to find that the most important thing is who it takes off the ice. If Gleason or Faulk takes a penalty, we have a problem. If both take one, our 3-on-5 will be a bad joke.

What I expect to find, and the data will either bear it out or not, is that guys like Corvo are even more of a liability than they seem. If a defenseman is prone to penalties, even if he's not a major penalty killer, the result is an increasing amount of strain on the other D-pairings as they compensate for him being off the ice. So while not playing good defense himself, he's making his teammates worse at the same time. That might be worthwhile if he were offsetting that issue with great offensive play, but as we see from the +/- thread it takes a truly exceptional defenseman to produce that much offense. I think what we'll find is a statistical confirmation of the eye test -- a player like Corvo is literally the worst model of defenseman available. It would be better to have a guy who does absolutely nothing than one who generates material negative impact on the outcome of the game.

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01-21-2013, 02:22 PM
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The problem is you're trying to measure (in terms of the goals scored on the PP/PKs) something that maybe has a real impact of 5%? or so. In 48 games, maybe someone will take 50 penalties?

The equivalent would be rolling a die 50 times to determine if it is fair.

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01-21-2013, 03:06 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallym View Post
The problem is you're trying to measure (in terms of the goals scored on the PP/PKs) something that maybe has a real impact of 5%? or so. In 48 games, maybe someone will take 50 penalties?

The equivalent would be rolling a die 50 times to determine if it is fair.
The sample size is what it is. What are we supposed to do? Get in our DeLorean and prevent Bettman and Fehr from ever meeting?

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01-21-2013, 03:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
The sample size is what it is. What are we supposed to do? Get in our DeLorean and prevent Bettman and Fehr from ever meeting?
That made me think of a Canes team photo with Semin starting to fade out of.

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01-21-2013, 06:42 PM
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tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dread Pirate Anton View Post
That made me think of a Canes team photo with Semin starting to fade out of.
Or Ward being in position to stop a long slapshot and the puck going right through him

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01-21-2013, 10:56 PM
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As I find time, I'm going to see if I can reconstruct last year's numbers as well. It's an easy task, just time consuming so I'm going to try and take it in 10-game blocks.

Here are the numbers I have for the first 10 games of last season.

Player Min. PKs Dbl-Min. PKs Maj. PKs PPs Ended 5-v-3s Created Goals Against
Bryan Allen 3 - - - - -
Drayson Bowman - - - - - -
Zach Boychuk - - - - - -
Tim Brent - - - - - -
Zac Dalpe - - - - - -
Patrick Dwyer 1 - - - - -
Justin Faulk 4 - - 1 1 1
Tim Gleason 1 - - - - 1
Jay Harrison 1 - - - - 1
Jussi Jokinen 2 1 - 1 1 2
Tomas Kaberle - - - - - -
Chad LaRose 4 - - - - -
Joni Pitkanen 2 - - - - 1
Alexei Ponikarovsky 4 - - - - 2
Tuomo Ruutu 2 - - 1 - -
Bobby Sanguinetti - - - - - -
Jeff Skinner 5 - - 1 - -
Eric Staal 2 - - - - 1
Anthony Stewart 1 - - - - -
Brandon Sutter 2 - - - 1 1
Brett Sutter 2 - - - - -
Jiri Tlusty 2 - - - - -
Cam Ward - - - - - -


Player Penalties Drawn PKs Ended PP Goals Created
Bryan Allen 3 - -
Drayson Bowman - - -
Zach Boychuk - - -
Tim Brent - - -
Brian Boucher - - -
Zac Dalpe - - -
Patrick Dwyer 1 - -
Justin Faulk - - -
Tim Gleason 2 - 2
Jay Harrison 1 - -
Jussi Jokinen 1 - -
Tomas Kaberle - - -
Chad LaRose 3 1 1
Justin Peters - - -
Joni Pitkanen 1 1 -
Alexei Ponikarovsky 2 - -
Tuomo Ruutu 6 - 1
Bobby Sanguinetti - - -
Jeff Skinner 9 - 3
Eric Staal 9 - 2
Anthony Stewart - - -
Brandon Sutter 2 - -
Brett Sutter - - -
Jiri Tlusty - - -
Cam Ward 3 2 -

Just going through that 10-game sample revealed some possible flaws in the system, particularly when it comes to multiple penalties. A good example is the Horton/Gleason game in Boston last year, where the Bruins ended up having a double-minor and two minors on the board simultaneously, and the Canes scored twice on those PPs. Situations like that are going to create some weird effects, such as Staal drawing a minor that resulted in 2 goals. Hopefully we'll find that those games are few and far between, so they'll have a marginal effect overall.

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01-22-2013, 12:12 PM
  #22
tarheelhockey
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Last season's numbers after 20 games.

Player Min. PKs Dbl-Min. PKs Maj. PKs PPs Ended 5-v-3s Created Goals Against
Bryan Allen 6 - - - - 1
Drayson Bowman - - - - - -
Zach Boychuk - - - - - -
Tim Brent 3 - - - 1 -
Zac Dalpe - - - - - -
Patrick Dwyer 2 - - - 1 -
Justin Faulk 4 - - 1 1 1
Tim Gleason 2 - - - - 1
Jay Harrison 4 - - - 1 1
Jussi Jokinen 3 1 - 1 1 3
Tomas Kaberle 1 - - - - -
Chad LaRose 7 - - - 1 -
Jamie McBain 1 - - 1 - -
Joni Pitkanen 3 - - - - 1
Alexei Ponikarovsky 7 - - - - 3
Tuomo Ruutu 6 - - 2 - 1
Bobby Sanguinetti - - - - - -
Jeff Skinner 6 - - 1 - -
Eric Staal 6 - - 1 1 2
Anthony Stewart 2 - - - - -
Brandon Sutter 2 - - - 1 1
Brett Sutter 2 - - - - -
Jiri Tlusty 3 - - - - -
Cam Ward 1 - - - - -


Player Penalties Drawn PKs Ended PP Goals Created
Bryan Allen 3 - -
Drayson Bowman - - -
Zach Boychuk 3 - -
Tim Brent - - -
Brian Boucher - - -
Zac Dalpe 1 - -
Patrick Dwyer 3 - -
Justin Faulk - - -
Tim Gleason 4 1 2
Jay Harrison 2 1 -
Jussi Jokinen 3 - -
Tomas Kaberle - - -
Chad LaRose 5 1 1
Justin Peters - - -
Joni Pitkanen 1 1 -
Alexei Ponikarovsky 5 - -
Tuomo Ruutu 10 - 1
Bobby Sanguinetti - - -
Jeff Skinner 16 - 3
Eric Staal 13 - 4
Anthony Stewart - - -
Brandon Sutter 5 1 -
Brett Sutter - - -
Jiri Tlusty 1 - 1
Cam Ward 4 2 -

Staal and Skinner - 29 PPs drawn, resulting in 7 goals
Rest of team - 50 PPs drawn, resulting in 5 goals

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01-23-2013, 07:30 AM
  #23
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Game 2 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1/22/2013
4-1 Loss



1st Period
13:02 - Harrison - Penalty Drawn
17:09 - Jordan Staal - Min. PK (tripping)

2nd Period
1:29 - Skinner - Penalty Drawn
3:15 - Eric Staal - Penalty Drawn +1 Goal For
9:14 - Bowman - Min. PK (hooking)
11:10 - Eric Staal - Penalty Drawn
16:28 - Jokinen - Min. PK (interference)

3rd Period
4:13 - LaRose - Min. PK (interference)
9:36 - Jokinen - Min. PK (hooking) +1 Goal Against
19:40 - Eric Staal - Min. PK (slashing)


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 01-23-2013 at 08:38 AM.
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01-23-2013, 07:50 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Game 2 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1/22/2013
4-1 Loss



1st Period
13:02 - Harrison - Penalty Drawn
17:09 - Jordan Staal - Min. PK (tripping)

2nd Period
1:29 - Skinner - Penalty Drawn +1 Goal For
3:15 - Eric Staal - Penalty Drawn +1 Goal For
9:14 - Bowman - Min. PK (hooking)
11:10 - Eric Staal - Penalty Drawn
16:28 - Jokinen - Min. PK (interference)

3rd Period
4:13 - LaRose - Min. PK (interference)
9:36 - Jokinen - Min. PK (hooking)
19:40 - Eric Staal - Min. PK (slashing)
The 5-3 expired before the goal so should Skinner still get the +1? Also Jussi's penalty resulted in a TB PP goal.

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01-23-2013, 08:38 AM
  #25
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
The 5-3 expired before the goal so should Skinner still get the +1? Also Jussi's penalty resulted in a TB PP goal.
I should really get coffee before doing this stuff. Fixed.

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