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San Francisco QB debate

View Poll Results: Who should be the starting QB for San Francisco?
Alex Smith 36 40.91%
Colin Kaepernick 52 59.09%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-12-2012, 08:26 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Hockeyfan02 View Post
How does that refute my point? Regardless of who is at QB 36/37% isn't a good third down percentage. It's below average and the 49ers need to get better at it, especially Sunday night when controlling the clock and keeping the Patriots offense off the field will be key.
Average is 38% and they are at 37%. Saying it's below average is REALLY picking nits. Smith and Kaepernick are average at it. Plus, the average 3rd down distance for Kaepernick is 3rd and 7. Good luck converting those at an above average rate.

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12-12-2012, 11:10 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Tuggy View Post
I haven't really seen much of Kaepernick but from the sounds of it we'll be facing an all pro this weekend.
Back to back weeks with 50+ yard runs. 8.3 y/a and 67.4 comp%. He still holds the ball too long in the pocket at times and must secure it better when he runs, but that's about the only complaints I have with him so far.

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12-17-2012, 01:01 AM
  #103
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Patriots would have won the game tonight had Belichick gone back to Bledsoe instead of sticking with Brady.

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12-17-2012, 08:15 AM
  #104
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This would've gotten interesting if the 49ers blew it. "Alex Smith wouldn't have blown a 31-3 lead" vs. "Alex Smith wouldn't have had a 31-3 lead to blow"

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12-17-2012, 08:43 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
This would've gotten interesting if the 49ers blew it. "Alex Smith wouldn't have blown a 31-3 lead" vs. "Alex Smith wouldn't have had a 31-3 lead to blow"
so true so true. Great game though.

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01-12-2013, 10:41 PM
  #106
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We can put this debate to bed.

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01-12-2013, 11:37 PM
  #107
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I'm just glad I never voted in the poll. I said that I thought Kaepernick would be the best QB of the 2011 draft class, I just disagreed with the manner in which he got the job.

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01-13-2013, 12:13 AM
  #108
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Shaky start to the game and it looked like he was nervous, but once he made that touch pass to Gore to convert on third down he was pretty much lights out. Incredible performance by him, he exceeded every expectation I had for him in tonight's game.

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01-13-2013, 06:16 AM
  #109
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Ok, I admit I was wrong.......Kappy is indeed the real deal.

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01-20-2013, 05:29 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Pajicz View Post
As a Niners fan, I'd still go with Alex. Some say that he's a game-manager. So what? He's a good game-manager, and that's enough for this team. Stats of his last two (or 1,5) games:

25/27, 304 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT. That's 92,6% completion percentage and 153,2 QB rating...
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
this move will come back to bite harbaugh and the 49ers in the ass
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
To consider it a desperation move to go back to the starting QB that was playing pretty damn well before his injury is exaggerating the situation. The reality is that Smith is the best guy to help win now for this team. Kaepernick's confidence is irrelevant at this stage as he's young and it can be built back up again. This team is a Super Bowl contending team but not with a QB that needs in-game learning experiences or on-the-job training. Even if he turns it around now, he's got no playoff experience and will again have to learn on the fly. The last two weeks, Kaepernick hasn't played well enough to sit another QB who was hot before injury.
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
3-0 as a starter where in two games, he hasn't done any better than Smith. Yes, he has potential to be better than Smith. He is not now and that's the point. He had that game against Chicago where he looked great and has been average with flashes since. You want to talk about conceivable records then you could say that the 49ers would have been in the Super Bowl if it wasn't for a kick returner with Smith in charge. His record the two seasons under Harbaugh is more impressive than a conceivable 3-0 where he didn't look any better than Smith had in two of those three games.

As for the experience argument, there's a vast difference between a young player who has limited in-game experience going into the world of the playoffs and a player that may not have playoff experience himself but has had many years of regular season experience to fall back on. Kaepernick has neither and his being green is showing more and more as teams figure him out. He's not the guy to go to yet for the rest of the year or beyond.
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This has got to be one of the worst arguments I've ever seen because it contains so many slants, biases, and assumptions that it's not worth acknowledging. The simple reality of the matter is that Smith is the better player at this stage...period. Saying Smith tends to struggle against better opponents is irrelevant as that is the case with everyone. The better your opponent is, the harder it is. It's pretty simple.

The only question that matters is who is the better QB right now that gives the team the best chance at winning right now. The answer is Alex Smith and not Colin Kaepernick. So far in three games, Kaepernick has struggled in two of them. Three of four if you include the first St. Louis game he played in. By your logic, that means Kaepernick struggles in 66 to 75% of his games and he's shown problems against worse opponents.

I would have no problems cutting Smith and going with Kaepernick next season based on the potential I've seen. But right now with a kid that has a grand total of three starts under his belt and a guy that will have at most seven starts before the playoffs, he's just not ready to be the guy that gets them to the Super Bowl.
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I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.

Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.

The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.
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But but but but but but it's still a small sample size and your entire premise is based on three starts and assumptive thinking. If we're going to run this ridiculous train of thought, the fact is that he is already dwindling as a QB with a steady decline in WPA. Wonder what that could mean? Maybe teams are starting to figure him out and he's too inconsistent due to a lack of experience and maybe that will lead to more struggles as the season wears on and, if they're lucky to make the playoffs with this kid at QB, he will get snuffed against good teams.
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That's really not the argument you want to go with if you're talking about Kaepernick and Smith. Kaepernick, again, didn't do much of anything in this game except for one play when the game was just about over.
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I wouldn't really plan the parade after beating Dolphins with a somewhat average performance...
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Originally Posted by J StClair28 View Post
Playing Kaepernick is a cool, fun game to play to keep the interest alive, and (at first) make teams guess, but if you want to win the super bowl, you gotta put Smith back in eventually. I don't know historical stats/occurrences, but I'm gonna say I don't think you can win it with a rookie QB. Especially when you might have to go up against a team like the Patriots, Broncos or Texans.
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Are you watching the games or looking at a stat sheet? His inconsistency is in the mental part of the game, not the physical. He's made inexperienced/rookie decisions quite a few times and in key moments. He didn't do anything until the 50 yard run when the game was pretty much over. Saying he's the picture of consistency is pretty short-sighted. Harbaugh did not make the right choice and it's going to bite him in the ass.
Lottery numbers please.

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01-20-2013, 05:56 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
Lottery numbers please.
I'm still 99% sure that Alex would've gotten us to Super Bowl as well.

Good that I've been wrong about Kappy, but that move was a big risk, and also not fair towards your previous starter...

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01-21-2013, 08:25 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Pajicz View Post
I'm still 99% sure that Alex would've gotten us to Super Bowl as well.

Good that I've been wrong about Kappy, but that move was a big risk, and also not fair towards your previous starter...
Niners don't win the GB or Yesterday's game with Alex Smith in. It's not fair for the rest of the team if you don't put the best QB there out of 'fairness' to a single player. Kaepernick is the better QB, the future of the 49ers QB position. I wish Alex all the best and he should find another starting job next season, but the position is Kaepernick's on the 49ers and Kaepernick has only proven that without a doubt, Harbaugh made the right choice.

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01-21-2013, 12:37 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pajicz View Post
I'm still 99% sure that Alex would've gotten us to Super Bowl as well.

Good that I've been wrong about Kappy, but that move was a big risk, and also not fair towards your previous starter...
99% sure? lol.

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01-21-2013, 01:12 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Pajicz View Post
I'm still 99% sure that Alex would've gotten us to Super Bowl as well.

Good that I've been wrong about Kappy, but that move was a big risk, and also not fair towards your previous starter...
Hmm...maybe you're right, it's an interesting debate to have IMO. I personally think people were way to critical of Alex Smith...he doesn't have Kaepernick's physical ability, but since Harbaugh took over, Smith turned into a very efficient QB.

I think with Smith as QB, they would of beat the Packers...I don't personally think the Packers were a very good team, just a below average team with an amazing QB (which alot of people think is enough for some odd reason). But i'm not entirely sure the 49ers beat the Falcons yesterday, IN Atlanta and down by 17, with Alex Smith as QB.

The Niners offense with Kaepernick as opposed to Smith hasn't changed drastically, it's just become alot more diverse (pistol offense) and there are way more explosive plays with Kaepernick at QB.

Smith is a solid QB, he makes smart decisions, is a great teamate and is tougher than given credit for...It's just that Kaep's alot more dynamic. He can make EVERY throw and unlike Smith, he can attack defenses outside the hashmarks.

I knew when the Niners drafted Kaepernick, that he was the future at QB for this team...I just didn't anticipate it would happen so soon.

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01-21-2013, 01:20 PM
  #115
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I'm still 99% sure that Alex would've gotten us to Super Bowl as well...
No chance the 49ers win yesterday with Smith

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01-21-2013, 01:24 PM
  #116
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No chance the 49ers win yesterday with Smith
Not sure how anyone could say 'no chance'...I think what makes the 49ers such a complete team, is that they're not overly reliant on any one specific player. They have several playmakers on offense and on defense, but they generally win games in the trenches because they've got a physical offensive line, arguably the best in the NFL, and they're defense line rarely looses their battles which frees up what is unquestionably, the best linebacker unit in the NFL.

The Falcons started the game on fire, and I agree that if Smith was QB'ing that specific game yesterday...it's unlikely the Niners win, but I wouldn't have been surprised if they would have either.

I think the better team won yesterday, they made adjustments after the first quarter as a team...

It's not like Kaepernick won them the game on his own...

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01-21-2013, 01:52 PM
  #117
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The Falcons had to respect the run option even up 17-0. The 49ers wouldn't have had that option with Smith in there and the Falcons beat 1 dimensional teams.

At the end of the day, the Falcons lost the game by 9 yards.

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01-21-2013, 01:55 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
The Falcons had to respect the run option even up 17-0. The 49ers wouldn't have had that option with Smith in there and the Falcons can beat 1 dimensional teams.

At the end of the day, the Falcons lost the game by 9 yards.
You're probably right, but run-option or not...the Niners would of ran the ball on the Falcons even if they weren't using the read-option. The Niners have always been a run-heavy team that runs from alot of different formations and I just don't think the Falcons defensive line was big enough or stout enough to stop the Niners, even if they ran from more traditional formations...coupled with the fact the Falcons can't stop opposing TE's, it's not unreasonable to say the Niners could of come back vs the Falcons if Smith was starting.

The gameplan would of been the same...the falcons struggled to stop the run period, read-option or not.

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01-21-2013, 02:19 PM
  #119
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Niners defence was not nearly as good this year as it was last. The Niners needed the added offence that Kaepernick gave them, the game manager style of Smith would likely not have worked. I doubt they would have beat Green Bay. SF's defence was not all that impressive last Sunday against them, but it was overshadowed by the fact that Kaepernick controlled the game so effortlessly. Similarly, yesterday, the 49ers defence waited until the second half to show up, but Kaepernick kept them in it with big plays and opening up the run game a lot more through the read option. Atlanta was obsessed with containing him, that they left wide open holes in the middle for Gore and James to run through. Watch Gore's 2nd TD for a perfect example. And Kaepernick made some beautiful throws, and I trust him to be able to make the tough throw in coverage over Smith.

People seem to forget that last year in the Divisional game, the defence gave Alex Smith 5 turnovers, and they still needed last second heroics (good on Smith for the last 5 minutes of that game, but it shouldn't have been needed) to pull out the win. Not to mention, 49ers went from having the best kicker in the NFL to the worst kicker in the NFL this year. Thank goodness that the 49ers have greatly improved their red zone offense these playoffs.

Smith is a good QB, he'll find another home. He's smart, and he'll be good for a team that wants a QB to simply game manage and not turn it over. The Jets seem like a good option, or maybe even someone like the Chiefs.

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01-21-2013, 02:28 PM
  #120
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Niners defence was not nearly as good this year as it was last. The Niners needed the added offence that Kaepernick gave them, the game manager style of Smith would likely not have worked. I doubt they would have beat Green Bay. SF's defence was not all that impressive last Sunday against them, but it was overshadowed by the fact that Kaepernick controlled the game so effortlessly. Similarly, yesterday, the 49ers defence waited until the second half to show up, but Kaepernick kept them in it with big plays and opening up the run game a lot more through the read option. Atlanta was obsessed with containing him, that they left wide open holes in the middle for Gore and James to run through. Watch Gore's 2nd TD for a perfect example. And Kaepernick made some beautiful throws, and I trust him to be able to make the tough throw in coverage over Smith.

People seem to forget that last year in the Divisional game, the defence gave Alex Smith 5 turnovers, and they still needed last second heroics (good on Smith for the last 5 minutes of that game, but it shouldn't have been needed) to pull out the win. Not to mention, 49ers went from having the best kicker in the NFL to the worst kicker in the NFL this year. Thank goodness that the 49ers have greatly improved their red zone offense these playoffs.

Smith is a good QB, he'll find another home. He's smart, and he'll be good for a team that wants a QB to simply game manage and not turn it over. The Jets seem like a good option, or maybe even someone like the Chiefs.
Not sure I agree with that, statistically speaking...they were better.

While the Niners made near history with their run defense last year, their pass defense struggled all year.

This year, they're run defense was still one of the best (though not as good as last year, though it's difficult to repeat what is near perfection) but their pass defense improved dramatically.

Of course, any defense will give up yards...the Niners have faced QB's like Brady, Brees, Rodgers x2, Ryan. Those guys are all great QB's who have quality WR's, expecting any defense to just shut them down is unrealistic.

But when it comes down to needing a stop, that's where the Niners defense really shines and they've shown this continually this year. They don't mind giving yardarge underneath and over the middle because they usually limit damage by tackling well.

As for the Green Bay game...the Packers are/were tremendously overrated, they had an awful defense, no run game and a leaky oline. You're not going to make it very far in the playoffs with those weaknesses, especially against well balanced teams like the 49ers. The Niners could of started their 3rd string QB Scott Tolzien and probably would have won (hyperbole)...

As for the Falcons...the Falcons, like the Packers, are porous against the run. Whether the Niners were running the read-option with Kap or running more of their traditional running plays, they would of had the same success vs the Falcons.

The big difference the 49ers get with Kaepernick over Smith is

#1 the read option threat has opened up their playbook
#2 the 49ers can make more plays outside the hash marks

Otherwise, the 49ers are essentially the same efficient offense...look at Kaep's raw numbers vs. Smith. There's not a drastic difference in terms of passing efficiency, there's just a big difference in explosif plays.

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01-21-2013, 02:31 PM
  #121
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Has Kaep really done any no huddle offense?

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01-21-2013, 02:34 PM
  #122
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Has Kaep really done any no huddle offense?
Not that i've seen...and the 49ers generally do not use any no-huddle offense. Unless they're running a 2 min drill.

They use too many shifts/motions/substitutions to really use the no-huddle anyways. They take it down to the last second of the playclock on almost every play.

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01-21-2013, 03:16 PM
  #123
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And I want to say that I DO like Smith. He definitely deserves a starting job somewhere. Can you imagine his motivation if he goes to Arizona and could get revenge 2 times a year? That would fire me up

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01-22-2013, 01:44 PM
  #124
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One of Kaepernick's biggest assets is the run option game. I'm just wondering, why we didn't use that with Smith? He can run as well, the run option is basically what he did back in Utah. Maybe he's not as good runner as Kaep, but he can still can break 20 yard runs like we saw against Saints last year.

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I think with Smith as QB, they would of beat the Packers...I don't personally think the Packers were a very good team, just a below average team with an amazing QB (which alot of people think is enough for some odd reason). But i'm not entirely sure the 49ers beat the Falcons yesterday, IN Atlanta and down by 17, with Alex Smith as QB.
In that situation, I have no doubt that Kappy is the better option. But, during last couple years with Alex, there has rarely been need for a comeback like that.

In a perfect world without egos and all, we would have a perfect duo for QB's; a sure game-manager with good football IQ who doesn't turn the ball over, and a game-changer with great mobility. But unfortunately in this world we're living in, no one uses two QB's...

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01-22-2013, 03:36 PM
  #125
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Smith doesn't have the top end speed to run the option in the NFL. Hell he got hurt running during a scramble.

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