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Rayan O'Rayli , From Russia with love

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01-21-2013, 01:16 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Good read, thanks RS! Friedman is one of the best journalists in hockey bar none.


If we have to trade ROR, I wouldnt mind getting Hamonic from Islanders, he is going to be one hell of a defenseman.
Isles think so too.

No thanks on ROR for Hamonic.

The isles have their #1 center in Tavares.ROR is looking for 1st line money($5m).
Even if he weren't, the isles have Nielsen with his 45-47 pts a season, on the 2nd line.

And the isles have promising young centers knocking on the nhl door: Strome, Brock Nelson, Sundstrome, Cizikas.They have a deeper pool of quality forward prospects, then blueline prospects. No interest in moving Hamonic.

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01-21-2013, 01:29 PM
  #127
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Eddie you wrote that "Based on O'Reilly's demands, Landeskog should already be paid as much as O'Reilly does."

Let's say ROR sign a 5M+ salary (which btw i agree is too much) how does that affects Landeskog right now??
What I meant was that I was talking in how ROR's current demands will affect our upcoming RFAs. Im just trying to look towards the future and not have a short-sighted view on the Avalanche team.

I think it would be extremely irresponsible for Avs management to just give in to salary demands of a player whos only shown, in one year, that he can contribute in an offensive role. If the avs didnt have such a young team, its a much simpler pill to swallow. But because of the existence of so many young players on the team, who are looking for RFA contract extensions in the future, if this team wants to maintain a solid core, being fiscally responsible will be necessary.

ROR getting any type of contract over 4.5M essentially forces the team to play him in a top 2 role. If hes relegated back to 3rd line center duties, and mostly PK time, his numbers will undoubtedly go down. What happens if ROR is paid 4.5M+ over a 5 year deal, and starts churning 40 pt seasons, based on the role he's given?

IMO, the reason he's not being signed to a long term extension is because the team is not ready to commit to any of the 3 centers until they have more time to properly evaluate. If you give ROR the big contract, you pretty much eliminate that evaluation process.

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01-21-2013, 01:33 PM
  #128
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Why was this quoting me? I never said those things.
Sorry, I did something wrong when editing my post.

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01-21-2013, 01:45 PM
  #129
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If Avs management isn't willing to commit to O'Reilly at this point, then there's no point

Every draft pick, every trade, every free agent acquisition, and every contract extension is a gamble. There's calculated risk with every single one. If the Avs are going to be this freaking cautious with every one of their players, they're NEVER going to be a winner again.

I'll reiterate that I don't think the 5-year offer reportedly on the table for O'Reilly is "unfair," but I don't think he's being classless by asking for more. I hope the two sides can find some middle ground, but if the Avs are seriously just gonna stand there and not budge, they're being ridiculous. That's conjecture on my part, based on what I've read.

Frankly, O'Reilly and his agent likely know that they've got the Avs by the proverbial balls in this negotiation. He is, IMO, the team's best player, but if you want to argue that he's at least the team's best two-way forward. He's also the team's best penalty killer...and it should be noted that the team's other best penalty killer now plays for the Leafs. Not saying that completely justifies O'Reilly's position, but the Avs don't have the high ground here. The Avs will be at the bottom of the league standings if they take as many penalties as they took the other night and fail to kill those penalties like they did last night.

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01-21-2013, 01:47 PM
  #130
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What role is ROR playing in Russia?
Is he a 1st or 2nd line forward? Or is he on the 3rd line?
Avs can afford to leave him in the KHL and evaluate what he does there, and let that add or subtract from his value. So far, it sounds like he's doing fine over there, and shouldn't be harming his NHL value. Let the KHL pay him his 5M (or whatever) to prove he's worth more than a 3C position and pay.
It's not like our window of opportunity is closing, and we're losing our chance to win the Cup because ROR isn't here. Our window is still a few years away. O'Rayli might not be anywhere near this team when that window opens.
And he might just find that he doesn't like the KHL after a full (or close to it) season over there. If that happens, he can come back and either agree to a fair contract or ask to be traded to a team that needs him on the top 2 lines.

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01-21-2013, 01:49 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
If Avs management isn't willing to commit to O'Reilly at this point, then there's no point

Every draft pick, every trade, every free agent acquisition, and every contract extension is a gamble. There's calculated risk with every single one. If the Avs are going to be this freaking cautious with every one of their players, they're NEVER going to be a winner again.

I'll reiterate that I don't think the 5-year offer reportedly on the table for O'Reilly is "unfair," but I don't think he's being classless by asking for more. I hope the two sides can find some middle ground, but if the Avs are seriously just gonna stand there and not budge, they're being ridiculous. That's conjecture on my part, based on what I've read.

Frankly, O'Reilly and his agent likely know that they've got the Avs by the proverbial balls in this negotiation. He is, IMO, the team's best player, but if you want to argue that he's at least the team's best two-way forward. He's also the team's best penalty killer...and it should be noted that the team's other best penalty killer now plays for the Leafs. Not saying that completely justifies O'Reilly's position, but the Avs don't have the high ground here. The Avs will be at the bottom of the league standings if they take as many penalties as they took the other night and fail to kill those penalties like they did last night.
Completely disagree. ROR and his agent are standing in Russia, cupping their own balls. They have no leverage -- which is why they have no NHL contract.

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01-21-2013, 01:51 PM
  #132
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regressed or not, Duchene has two good season out of 3 to ROR's 1 out of 3. he shouldn't make more than Duchene.
EJ is around a 26-30 pts scorer for his career, his peak year was 39 in his rookie season. So i don't think he did anything other than what was reasonably expected from him last season.

Well, i just see it from a diferent perpective. To me that last year has an impact, more than the other two.

Lets say Duchene had another 60+ point season last year, do you think he would have setted for 3.5m per??? He would have asked for 5+ i think, but he lost his leverage.

ROR on the other had improved tremedously and was one of the most reliable players on the team during last season. Therefore i dont mind him asking for more than Duchene.


Quote:
i'm a huge ROR fan and think he's been our most complete player for a while now. but my offer would stop at 4.25(more than likely 3.75) if i got that far and it would have to be 7 years so as to avoid this nonsense again.
3.5 for two years is saying, you did it last season now prove it for two more years and we'll reward you. he could have taken that deal.
it's a raise and about his market value based upon the previous seasons production. he's not worth 5 million and if the Avs pay him that we will be in trouble in the future.
I mostly agree that 4.25M its fair IMO... what i'm afraid is that our mgmt doesnt think that and are stuck at 3.5, THAT would be ridiculous IMO.

But we dont know exactly whats going on behind the scenes.

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Old
01-21-2013, 01:54 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
Completely disagree. ROR and his agent are standing in Russia, cupping their own balls. They have no leverage -- which is why they have no NHL contract.
I agree.

Depending on ROR's role, I think the avs can acquire a 3rd line center who is adept at defense and PK, as an adequate replacement.

IF the avs had no other options at center, then yes, he'd have tons of leverage. But with 2 other options, ROR has to hope one or the other falters for him to gain leverage at this point.

Im absolutely 100% sure that Avs management will not allow a 21 year old to dictate how they run their team.

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01-21-2013, 01:56 PM
  #134
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The Avs will be at the bottom of the league standings if they take as many penalties as they took the other night and fail to kill those penalties like they did last night.
So, little change from last year.

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01-21-2013, 01:56 PM
  #135
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For now, I sense Avs reserving larger portion of bile for ROR's agent than the kid himself. But they're very unhappy over situation
And the next one, I don't think is any cause for alarm at all, he explains it in his tweet.

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O'Reilly's No. 37 jersey currently selling at 70% off at Altitude team store. But they're also selling his new No. 90 one.

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01-21-2013, 02:06 PM
  #136
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I thought we had agreed that 3.5-4.25 was workable already? 5 is too much, below 3.5 would be great, but is lowballing. What are we still arguing about?

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01-21-2013, 02:08 PM
  #137
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there were a lot of Duchene trade whispers last year, iirc. perhaps the RoR situation is a blessing as i would have hated to see duchene moved before we got to see him mature.

RoR, if what i have read is correct, making 4 million in russia per season is troubling. because that is 4 million tax free. so if we want the kid to walk from 2x4 million tax free we have to give a little.

if you don't want to do that to insure your next RFA won't try to get more than current proven worth, fine, i can understand it, but it also should not be RoR's fault for trying to get it.

people in PHI hated hartnell's contract when he inked it and he was overpaid a couple years, and then last year he was underpaid. sometimes these things balance out.

it is also important to remember that our next RFA won't have KHL contracts because there won't be a lockout. the lockout played a role in this ugly mess.

this just sucks as a fav of COL and RoR. i don't want him traded, i was liking the rebuild.

if he is not traded, they wait, it's a bad year and we get a great pick in the draft and somehow RoR and COL kiss and make up next off season, well, i'd be OK with that.

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01-21-2013, 02:09 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
Completely disagree. ROR and his agent are standing in Russia, cupping their own balls. They have no leverage -- which is why they have no NHL contract.
Well he is making 4 million a year over there.

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01-21-2013, 02:10 PM
  #139
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I thought we had agreed that 3.5-4.25 was workable already? 5 is too much, below 3.5 would be great, but is lowballing. What are we still arguing about?
Because due to the secrecy that the Avalanche have always operated in, we don't know for sure what the numbers are that the Avs want and that O'Reilly's camp wants...other than going off of what TPS told us, which was that O'Reilly's agent put together a strong case that he could be paid as much as 5m a year.

I still think that the resolution to this is either a Sign and trade, or a trade of his rights while allowing a negotiation window between the team trading for him and ROR

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01-21-2013, 02:11 PM
  #140
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And the next one, I don't think is any cause for alarm at all, he explains it in his tweet.
Hmm. I may buy a 37 jersey then. I think 90 is an ugly number on a jersey. Wish he would have went with 91. That us a sexy number.

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01-21-2013, 02:11 PM
  #141
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We don't know what he is making in Russia. Haven't seen any credible source for any figure.

If Avs thought they would have to beat $4M/year, standing on $3.4M-3.5M would be silly and there would be no reason to talk.

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01-21-2013, 02:13 PM
  #142
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Because due to the secrecy that the Avalanche have always operated in, we don't know for sure what the numbers are that the Avs want and that O'Reilly's camp wants...other than going off of what TPS told us, which was that O'Reilly's agent put together a strong case that he could be paid as much as 5m a year.

I still think that the resolution to this is either a Sign and trade, or a trade of his rights while allowing a negotiation window between the team trading for him and ROR
Agreed, but his value to us, the fans (which has zero influence on negotiations), is that he's worth between 3.5-4.25. No more, no less... Right?
I really hope he doesn't get injured over there...

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01-21-2013, 02:19 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
If Avs management isn't willing to commit to O'Reilly at this point, then there's no point

Every draft pick, every trade, every free agent acquisition, and every contract extension is a gamble. There's calculated risk with every single one. If the Avs are going to be this freaking cautious with every one of their players, they're NEVER going to be a winner again.

I'll reiterate that I don't think the 5-year offer reportedly on the table for O'Reilly is "unfair," but I don't think he's being classless by asking for more. I hope the two sides can find some middle ground, but if the Avs are seriously just gonna stand there and not budge, they're being ridiculous. That's conjecture on my part, based on what I've read.

Frankly, O'Reilly and his agent likely know that they've got the Avs by the proverbial balls in this negotiation. He is, IMO, the team's best player, but if you want to argue that he's at least the team's best two-way forward. He's also the team's best penalty killer...and it should be noted that the team's other best penalty killer now plays for the Leafs. Not saying that completely justifies O'Reilly's position, but the Avs don't have the high ground here. The Avs will be at the bottom of the league standings if they take as many penalties as they took the other night and fail to kill those penalties like they did last night.
I don't agree with this at all. I don't think O'Reilly and his agent have the Avs by the balls at all. If anything the Avs hold an advantage in the negotiating process because they control O'Reilly's NHL rights for the foreseeable future. If O'Reilly stays in the KHL for a year then he doesn't get any closer to UFA status and the Avs still control his NHL rights for the foreseeable future. The Avs clearly control O'Reilly's NHL future one way or the other.

The Avs do already have two other centers that can play on their top two lines. Whether or not they produce enough for the Avs to be cup contenders is to be determined but they have the skill level and the potential to handle the top two line center positions. Again, negotiating advantage for the Avs.

Would O'Reilly be a better 3rd line center and PKer than Mitchell? Yes, I believe he would. However, given the first game that Mitchell played for the Avs I don't think they are currently too worried about Mitchell being able to fulfill that role this year. I also don't think the Avs are willing to pay $5 million per year for a 3rd line center that kills penalties.

O'Reilly may want to play hard ball with the Avs and demand $5 million per year however he isn't negotiating from a position of strength. The Avs have options and they hold the cards when it comes to O'Reilly's NHL future.

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01-21-2013, 02:20 PM
  #144
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Agreed, but his value to us, the fans (which has zero influence on negotiations), is that he's worth between 3.5-4.25. No more, no less... Right?
I really hope he doesn't get injured over there...
Sure, I think anything between 3.5 and 4.25 is reasonable, but as has been pointed out, we don't really know what he's making in Russia. Nor do we truly know what the Avs have offered after their Summer offers.

So we're all in the dark.

But as Friedman alluded to, it won't surprise me one bit if a Ryan O'Reilly trade comes out of nowhere.

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01-21-2013, 02:24 PM
  #145
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Well, i just see it from a diferent perpective. To me that last year has an impact, more than the other two.

Lets say Duchene had another 60+ point season last year, do you think he would have setted for 3.5m per??? He would have asked for 5+ i think, but he lost his leverage.

ROR on the other had improved tremedously and was one of the most reliable players on the team during last season. Therefore i dont mind him asking for more than Duchene.




I mostly agree that 4.25M its fair IMO... what i'm afraid is that our mgmt doesnt think that and are stuck at 3.5, THAT would be ridiculous IMO.

But we dont know exactly whats going on behind the scenes.

had Duchene put together another 60+ point season then he would have been able to come to the table with 3 consecutive years of 20+ goals and 30+ assists, i don't think anyone would have argued that he would deserve 4-5 mil like he demanded, they would expect more defense and grit but wouldn't argue the salary(unless he started demanding 6 or so)

the overall body of work comes into play when you're re-signing your own FA's more so than signing another team's UFA.
you're setting an example of what other can expect with similar years/demands. if they pay ROR for one good year with two so-so seasons previous to it then you lose all potential leverage in future negotiations with players.
you can't tell a guy we don't think you're worth this when you paid O'Reilly based on one season.
i like that he is improving and he should be rewarded for that, but not 4.5+ for it because his agent makes a cause that he's similar to players who make X amount of money.

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01-21-2013, 02:24 PM
  #146
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What if:

The Avs have secretly entered Tank Mode already in order to pick Seth Jones. They therefore tell ROR to sign a lowball offer since they know he won't sign it, preventing a good defensive player from playing games consequently making us lose more. Meanwhile, they also hate Joe Sacco and want him fired.
So by not signing ROR, we increase our chances for a #1 pick and to fire sacco.

I say, stay in Russia ROR!!

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01-21-2013, 02:28 PM
  #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av-merican View Post
If Avs management isn't willing to commit to O'Reilly at this point, then there's no point

Every draft pick, every trade, every free agent acquisition, and every contract extension is a gamble. There's calculated risk with every single one. If the Avs are going to be this freaking cautious with every one of their players, they're NEVER going to be a winner again.

I'll reiterate that I don't think the 5-year offer reportedly on the table for O'Reilly is "unfair," but I don't think he's being classless by asking for more. I hope the two sides can find some middle ground, but if the Avs are seriously just gonna stand there and not budge, they're being ridiculous. That's conjecture on my part, based on what I've read.

Frankly, O'Reilly and his agent likely know that they've got the Avs by the proverbial balls in this negotiation.
He is, IMO, the team's best player, but if you want to argue that he's at least the team's best two-way forward. He's also the team's best penalty killer...and it should be noted that the team's other best penalty killer now plays for the Leafs. Not saying that completely justifies O'Reilly's position, but the Avs don't have the high ground here. The Avs will be at the bottom of the league standings if they take as many penalties as they took the other night and fail to kill those penalties like they did last night.
how exactly do they have the Avs by the balls? he's got one good season to his credit, he's not signed, he's not playing in the NHL, he may be making money in the KHL but his biggest earning potential is in the NHL from both a salary and marketing standpoint.

all he is doing is costing himself money for every NHL game he misses, his value is not going to go up short of the Avs suffering a huge injury loss to either Duchene or Stats(knock on wood)
the Avs can just wait him out, heck at this point he's lucky as hell that Hishon has been hurt for so long or he'd probably be on the Avs roster and they'd for sure call his bluff on the salary demands.

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01-21-2013, 02:31 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by WornWithPride View Post
What if:

The Avs have secretly entered Tank Mode already in order to pick Seth Jones. They therefore tell ROR to sign a lowball offer since they know he won't sign it, preventing a good defensive player from playing games consequently making us lose more. Meanwhile, they also hate Joe Sacco and want him fired.
So by not signing ROR, we increase our chances for a #1 pick and to fire sacco.

I say, stay in Russia ROR!!
A minor flaw in your logic. If the "Avs" wanted Sacco fired they'd just fire him.


Last edited by Frenchy: 01-21-2013 at 04:28 PM.
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01-21-2013, 02:32 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by WornWithPride View Post
What if:

The Avs have secretly entered Tank Mode already in order to pick Seth Jones. They therefore tell ROR to sign a lowball offer since they know he won't sign it, preventing a good defensive player from playing games consequently making us lose more. Meanwhile, they also hate Joe Sacco and want him fired.
So by not signing ROR, we increase our chances for a #1 pick and to fire sacco.

I say, stay in Russia ROR!!
That may be the smartest thing I have ever read.


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01-21-2013, 02:52 PM
  #150
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One player that you don't see O'Reilly compared to often here: Patrice Bergeron. Why O'Reilly is asking for money in that kind of area right now is beyond me. I love O'Reilly and I don't want him to go but as of now, he isn't that good, though I hope he will be one day.

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