I'm picking Vancouver to seed around 4-6. They traditionally start slow plus they have significant injuries right now. However, they will finish strong and take that momentum to the playoffs where they will be a top contender.
Probably Vancouver, I can't see Minnesota or Colorado surpassing them unless Vancouver really hits a rough stretch. Edmonton is still rising up the rankings and Calgary is falling. But it's more of a toss up this year than it has been in awhile.
1 - You're only talking about Minnesotas second half of the season. The first half they were one of the best teams. You can't just isolate the parts that support your argument. The biggest sample size we have from last year is 82 games, and over 82 games Minnesota got 81 points and finished 12th.
Usually if you are talking about how a team will do in the present season and are comparing how they did in the previous season, you would look to trends in the later part of that previous season, not the start of it. The final 54 games is a pretty significant trend to look at rather than the initial 28 games. But that being said, it is no guarantee for failure, and the Wild could still crack 9th or 10th spot in the conference...
Usually if you are talking about how a team will do in the present season and are comparing how they did in the previous season, you would look to trends in the later part of that previous season, not the start of it. The final 54 games is a pretty significant trend to look at rather than the initial 28 games. But that being said, it is no guarantee for failure, and the Wild could still crack 9th or 10th spot in the conference...
The Wild had a lot of injuries and no depth to fill those injuries. That was a big contributor to how they ended up falling so far in the standings. Hope you factored that in when coming up with your "trends".
Edmonton finished 37 points back last year. While they improved a lot, I don't think they've done enough to overcome that gap.
Calgary hasn't done much to improve their team this year - I don't see any of Wideman, Hudler, or Cervenka making the huge impact that will be required to get them into division contention. And Kiprusoff already had a great year last year, and the Flames still missed the playoffs.
Colorado is missing their leading scorer and best two-way player right now in a contract dispute.
Minnesota has made the biggest improvements, but they also started from a bad spot - they were dead last in the league in scoring last year, at only 2.02 goals a game. That number probably would have been better if it wasn't for Koivu's injury, but nevertheless I just don't think they've improved enough to take over the NW division. They probably will be a playoff team though.
Edmonton is not getting enough love here , it's a short season and their roster is full of young superstars who all played hockey since september . I dont argue that the Wild and the Nucks are there , but still we have to look at the Oilers on a sprint season .
I'm picking Vancouver to seed around 4-6. They traditionally start slow plus they have significant injuries right now. However, they will finish strong and take that momentum to the playoffs where they will be a top contender.
Usually if you are talking about how a team will do in the present season and are comparing how they did in the previous season, you would look to trends in the later part of that previous season, not the start of it. The final 54 games is a pretty significant trend to look at rather than the initial 28 games. But that being said, it is no guarantee for failure, and the Wild could still crack 9th or 10th spot in the conference...
So why is 54 the precise magic number that's worth looking at, is that the rubric you always use when predicting a team's performance? Or only when the team performed well in the 28 previous games, which don't support your argument?
Over the last couple of years the pattern with the Wild is that they were a pretty good team with a healthy Koivu and one of the worst teams in the league when he was injured. I think the influx of talent moves both parts of that equation up a level. It isn't just about stats, it is about the way the team plays. As long as one of either Parise or Koivu are ok they will still be competitive if the other is injured, that wasn't the case in the past. Healthy, the Wild are a very good team, injured they are probably a bubble team. If they stay healthy this year and the Canucks get off to a slow start they could win it. I think Minnesota and Vancouver both have about equal chances.
The Wild, Vancouver has a better defense but I think Minny has a better offense and goal tending is a wash. I think the energy that the city has bringing in Parise and Suter will give the Wild the moment to win the division.
The Wild, Vancouver has a better defense but I think Minny has a better offense and goal tending is a wash. I think the energy that the city has bringing in Parise and Suter will give the Wild the moment to win the division.
The Canucks are better at every position, except maybe offense with Booth and Kesler out.(6-9 days until Kesler starts skating with the Canucks again)
The Wild, Vancouver has a better defense but I think Minny has a better offense and goal tending is a wash. I think the energy that the city has bringing in Parise and Suter will give the Wild the moment to win the division.
The way I see it, defence/goaltending is pretty close but slight advantage Vancouver.
However, I am simply not sold on Minnesota's offence.
In 2010-11, they had no significant injuries, and finished as the 5th lowest scoring team in the league.
In that offseason they dropped Havlat and gained Heatley.
In 2011-12, Minnesota finished dead last, 30th in the league, in goals for, and in fact, were the lowest-scoring team in the entire period between the lockouts 2005-2012. So what, you say? Koivu, Bouchard, and Setoguchi all were out for quite a while.
Except, the Wild were not only 30th but well behind, not even close to anyone else. They could have scored 20 more goals last year and still been the lowest scoring team in the league.
Meanwhile, Vancouver has been 2nd, 1st, and 5th in scoring during the last three seasons. The Canucks are now missing two-thirds of their 2nd line, so they'll slip a bit, but I don't think they're going to end up anywhere near the bottom of the standings. After all, Henrik Sedin was the highest-scoring forward in the West last year, and the Canucks also get a large chunk of their scoring from the blueline.
Now Wild add Granlund, Parise, Suter, and the Canucks are down Kesler and Booth.
IMO everything needs to go right for the Wild - their new acquisitions play to potential and they stay healthy, while Kesler and Booth are out for most of the season, and maybe even a H. Sedin injury (unlikely due to his history) - for them to pass the Canucks in goals per game. There is simply too much of a difference to make up.
Note: You might be wondering about Boston, which finished last in scoring in 2009-10 and then won the division plus the Cup the following year. First of all, the Bruins actually got 2.39 G/G that year, with Savard injured, which is still a lot better than the Wild did last year. Like the Wild, they made major changes in the offseason adding Horton, Campbell, Marchand, and Seguin. But those Bruins didn't have a two-time Presidents Trophy winner and perennial top offensive team in their division to contend with - their division was won by the Buffalo Sabres (10th in goals per game), so the "bar" they needed to beat was lower. They also got historic goaltending from Tim Thomas, which I'm not holding my breath for Backstrom or Harding to accomplish this year.
TL, DR: Canucks offence >>>> Wild offence last year. Changes in the offseason and injuries haven't done enough to make Wild offence better than Canucks, unless the stars align for Minnesota. Therefore Vancouver still favoured to win the NW.
One of the issues with the Wild's scoring is that Mike Yeo likes to use the top line to shut down the other team's top line. That hurts their scoring but helps them win games. Minnesota will probably be a low scoring team again this year, people who don't watch them play and just look at statistics will wonder why they are wining.
I'm just going to state my case for the Oilers.
Cam Barker and Linus Omark out. Justin Schultz and Nail Yakupov in. That alone is a massive improvement(unproven rookies or not)
Hall, Eberle, and RNH all of the potential to get a lot better(well maybe not Eberle), and started the season running.
Dubnyk is now the starting goalie and actually had pretty decent stats last year for a 29th place team(.915sv%). If he can play at that level for 35 games they will have a shot.
Still no true #1 defenseman but Smid and Petry made big improvements last year, and N.Schultz is a quiet but solid guy. He'll never be a star of the game but will make big contributions.
Special teams will be a big factor this year and the Oilers with all of their skill will be the beneficiaries of a lot of PP time. They had the #3 PP last year and I cant see the addition of J.Schultz and Yakupov hurting that.
OT/Shoot outs will also be big with a tight race. Open ice will favour the speed and skill of this young team and having the options of Hall, RNH, Eberle, Gagner, Yakupov, Hemsky and even Horcoff is a luxury.
We'll see if inexperience and injuries kills them but they started so well last year
