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RD Erik Gudbranson (2010, 3rd overall, Florida)

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Old
01-21-2013, 11:34 PM
  #226
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To answer the OP regarding Gudbranson....

Best case comparison: Shea Weber/Chris Pronger
Likely comparison: Brent Seabrook/Jack Johnson
Worst-case comparison: Eric Brewer/Chris Phillips

The sky is really the limit for him. He has raw raw tools and is still so young. Should be very interesting to see how he develops over the next few years.

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01-22-2013, 12:25 AM
  #227
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You really think he has the offensive potential of those players? I definitely don't see the JJ comparison anyway.

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01-22-2013, 12:54 AM
  #228
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Originally Posted by PensBandwagonerNo272 View Post
You really think he has the offensive potential of those players? I definitely don't see the JJ comparison anyway.
Yes. Gudbranson's don't grow on trees. We are talking about a rather unique player who can shut the other team down and play solid in his own zone, throw a big hit to change the momentum of a game at any time and then go on the powerplay and unleash his cannon of a shot.

His game needs refinement and obvious further development but what 20 year old NHL defenceman doesn't? There was a reason he played fulltime in the NHL as a 19 year old. Not many defencemen, let alone forwards do that.

Jack Johnson, drafted 3rd overall in 2005, 6'1 231 lbs.
Erik Gudbranson, drafted 3rd overall in 2010, 6'4 201 lbs.

Johnson's rookie NHL season: 74 GP 3-8-11-76 -19
Gudbranson's rookie NHL season: 72 GP 2-6-8-78 -19

Obviously stats don't tell the whole story and granted, Gudbranson and Johnson don't play the exact same style to a tee. I would argue Johnson will be more offensive than Gudbranson but that Gudbranson will be the more complete two-way dman. JJ isn't really all that great in his own end IMO. Gudbranson should be pretty solid.

I could be wrong and maybe not popular opinion but I think Gudbranson has the ability to be something special. Better than Fowler, Gormley and everyone else in his draft class, although Faulk is something special out in Carolina.

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01-22-2013, 12:59 AM
  #229
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I don't know if any of you have actually seen him play, but really, so far in the NHL, he has played an extremely defensive game. I think the comparisons to Weber or Pronger are basically completely unfounded. 40 points in a good year. And the way he plays, it's going to take a while for him to become really effective. But never underrate a 6'4'' defenseman who has balls and plays a committed defensive game while having puck moving skills.

Even Johnson in those days, for all the hype about him being forced to play a defensive style, got a lot more puck time and quality offensive time than I see Gudbranson getting so far.

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01-22-2013, 01:15 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 View Post
I don't know if any of you have actually seen him play, but really, so far in the NHL, he has played an extremely defensive game. I think the comparisons to Weber or Pronger are basically completely unfounded. 40 points in a good year. And the way he plays, it's going to take a while for him to become really effective. But never underrate a 6'4'' defenseman who has balls and plays a committed defensive game while having puck moving skills.

Even Johnson in those days, for all the hype about him being forced to play a defensive style, got a lot more puck time and quality offensive time than I see Gudbranson getting so far.
I've watched him play quite a bit and I don't see how you can say that at the best case scenario, if he reaches his full potential, he can't be like a Weber or Pronger.

Florida coaches could have put Gudbranson in a far more offensive role than they did. They didn't and I think it was smart of them. Let him learn the defensive side of the game first and then let him loose offensively. Remember we are talking about a defenceman who just turned 21 years old two weeks ago.

You also have to remember who his d partner was last year. Ask Panther fans how effective Jovonovski was last season. In the games I watched, Gudbranson had to cover Jovo's mistakes in the defensive zone time and time again. I suppose that's another reason they wanted him to focus almost exclusively on defence.

Honestly I believe it is up to Gudbranson to realize how good he can become. If he wants it bad enough, he can be truly dominant.

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01-22-2013, 03:18 AM
  #231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blink View Post
I've watched him play quite a bit and I don't see how you can say that at the best case scenario, if he reaches his full potential, he can't be like a Weber or Pronger.

Florida coaches could have put Gudbranson in a far more offensive role than they did. They didn't and I think it was smart of them. Let him learn the defensive side of the game first and then let him loose offensively. Remember we are talking about a defenceman who just turned 21 years old two weeks ago.

You also have to remember who his d partner was last year. Ask Panther fans how effective Jovonovski was last season. In the games I watched, Gudbranson had to cover Jovo's mistakes in the defensive zone time and time again. I suppose that's another reason they wanted him to focus almost exclusively on defence.

Honestly I believe it is up to Gudbranson to realize how good he can become. If he wants it bad enough, he can be truly dominant.
I suppose he could reach that level but i would call that wishful thinking more than realism. But i bet you could have said the same about weber at even more advanced ages.

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01-22-2013, 11:19 AM
  #232
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Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 View Post
I suppose he could reach that level but i would call that wishful thinking more than realism. But i bet you could have said the same about weber at even more advanced ages.
Yeah exactly. We are talking best case scenario here for Gudbranson. Whether he will reach that level, or even come close, remains to be seen.

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01-22-2013, 11:29 AM
  #233
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Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 View Post
I don't know if any of you have actually seen him play, but really, so far in the NHL, he has played an extremely defensive game. I think the comparisons to Weber or Pronger are basically completely unfounded. 40 points in a good year. And the way he plays, it's going to take a while for him to become really effective. But never underrate a 6'4'' defenseman who has balls and plays a committed defensive game while having puck moving skills.

Even Johnson in those days, for all the hype about him being forced to play a defensive style, got a lot more puck time and quality offensive time than I see Gudbranson getting so far.
Huh? He was 19 last year....... How can you rate a 19 year old defenseman's offensive game. There's lots of other d-men in Florida to take the load off, it's amazing to even get a regular shift in the NHL at that age. They're clearly working him in slowly and building his role up very gradually. He played in the freaking NHL at 19. Granted, would have been nice if he was healthy and got AHL time this year but he's still extremely raw and toolsy, give it time.

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01-22-2013, 12:01 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by oilsp1ll View Post
Huh? He was 19 last year....... How can you rate a 19 year old defenseman's offensive game. There's lots of other d-men in Florida to take the load off, it's amazing to even get a regular shift in the NHL at that age. They're clearly working him in slowly and building his role up very gradually. He played in the freaking NHL at 19. Granted, would have been nice if he was healthy and got AHL time this year but he's still extremely raw and toolsy, give it time.
That's essentially it in a nutshell. Nobody can predict Gudbranson's offensive game as it hasn't been fully developed. The raw skills are there, the passing, shooting and skating. It's clear when you watch the kid play that he has tools that, if properly developed, he can use to dominate.

It's difficult enough for a 19 year old forward to play regularly in the NHL straight out of juniors. It's another level completely to play as a defenceman. That's what makes this kid so special.

By the end of his rookie year he went from a guy that Panther fans were saying had no business in the NHL earlier in the season to a player in the playoffs, playing 20 minutes a game in Game 7 against the Stanley Cup finalist Devils.

How he bounces back from this shoulder injury and how he further develops his offensive game over the next couple of seasons will be crucial in determining how good he can be.

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01-22-2013, 05:15 PM
  #235
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Was offensive output even one of the reasons why he was drafted 3rd? I don't recall it being brought up...

Essentially if he plays as a big, physical defenseman with a hard slapper, offensive output is just gravy.

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01-22-2013, 05:17 PM
  #236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blink View Post
Yes. Gudbranson's don't grow on trees.
Love this quote.

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01-22-2013, 06:27 PM
  #237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
Was offensive output even one of the reasons why he was drafted 3rd? I don't recall it being brought up...

Essentially if he plays as a big, physical defenseman with a hard slapper, offensive output is just gravy.
Actually, that was one of the bigger selling points of Gudbranson leading up to the draft. That he had the offensive potential to become more than just a stay at home guy, but that he was just incredibly raw.

Whether it actually ends up being the case or not is another topic, but he certainly wasn't drafted to be just a physical stay at home guy. A lot of scouts saw offensive upside in him.

And before people immediately scoff at the Shea Weber suggestions, their final year junior totals (points per game, since Gudbranson missed over 20 games due to injury/suspension) were very similar.

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01-22-2013, 06:39 PM
  #238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blink View Post
That's essentially it in a nutshell. Nobody can predict Gudbranson's offensive game as it hasn't been fully developed. The raw skills are there, the passing, shooting and skating. It's clear when you watch the kid play that he has tools that, if properly developed, he can use to dominate.

It's difficult enough for a 19 year old forward to play regularly in the NHL straight out of juniors. It's another level completely to play as a defenceman. That's what makes this kid so special.

By the end of his rookie year he went from a guy that Panther fans were saying had no business in the NHL earlier in the season to a player in the playoffs, playing 20 minutes a game in Game 7 against the Stanley Cup finalist Devils.

How he bounces back from this shoulder injury and how he further develops his offensive game over the next couple of seasons will be crucial in determining how good he can be.
I think the statement "no one can predict his offensive game" is pretty much false. Scouts can assess how a player is going to look at the NHL level. And there's a difference between suggesting that a player has untapped potential and saying that it is impossible to predict their development entirely. Clearly you can assign certain likelihoods to outcomes based on previous observation of the prospect in question. It's certainly a spectacular thing when a player is able to surpass most people's expectations but that only happens if the expectations are realistic in the first place. Basically, saying that Gudbranson has Shea Weber potential sets him up to look like a failure if he attains his more likely status, which in my mind is still worth a top-3 pick and the development costs.

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01-22-2013, 06:42 PM
  #239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
Was offensive output even one of the reasons why he was drafted 3rd? I don't recall it being brought up...

Essentially if he plays as a big, physical defenseman with a hard slapper, offensive output is just gravy.
This is exactly it, there's really no basis for the expectations for him to put up Weber like numbers. He clearly plays the game very defensively, and while this is due to him being a young defenseman in the NHL on a team that has a number of better offensive defensemen, you can't deny the game that you see on the ice. He plays a risk free game, and compared to other defensemen of that age who play a risk free game, he's damn good at it. I would go as far as to say that he has potential, if he works at his game, to be the premier defensive defenseman in the NHL while being a player you can trust with the puck.

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01-22-2013, 10:49 PM
  #240
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[QUOTE=porknbeans1000;58106155]I think the statement "no one can predict his offensive game" is pretty much false. Scouts can assess how a player is going to look at the NHL level. And there's a difference between suggesting that a player has untapped potential and saying that it is impossible to predict their development entirely. Clearly you can assign certain likelihoods to outcomes based on previous observation of the prospect in question. It's certainly a spectacular thing when a player is able to surpass most people's expectations but that only happens if the expectations are realistic in the first place. Basically, saying that Gudbranson has Shea Weber potential sets him up to look like a failure if he attains his more likely status, which in my mind is still worth a top-3 pick and the development costs.[/QUOTE]

When you are picked 3rd overall, like it or not, there are huge expectations on that player. You just don't pick players at that spot that you don't think become franchise type players. You also don't pick 3rd overall defencemen to tell your fans, "oh hey look, we just picked the next Aki Berg, line up to get your tickets".

If Gudbranson develops into what the Panthers wanted him to be when they drafted him, yes he can be a Pronger/Weber type.

Will he get there? Who knows but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility.

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01-27-2013, 08:39 PM
  #241
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
Was offensive output even one of the reasons why he was drafted 3rd? I don't recall it being brought up...

Essentially if he plays as a big, physical defenseman with a hard slapper, offensive output is just gravy.
He doesn't go 3rd overall without offensive upside. If you watch this 6'4 behemoth skate you'll see why he has the Weber comparisons, he skates very well for his size and of course he has the howitzer and great outlet pass; basically he has every tool you would want a dman to have fighting,hitting, leadership etc..will he put it all together? that remains to be seen

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01-27-2013, 08:51 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by blink View Post
To answer the OP regarding Gudbranson....

Best case comparison: Shea Weber/Chris Pronger
Likely comparison: Brent Seabrook/Jack Johnson
Worst-case comparison: Eric Brewer/Chris Phillips

The sky is really the limit for him. He has raw raw tools and is still so young. Should be very interesting to see how he develops over the next few years.
I think you're significantly overrating his offensive abilities if you think Seabrook/Johnson is "likely." Of all the big, physical, smooth skating, two way dmen who've gone high in the draft recently (Gudbranson, Hamilton, Bogosian and Trouba), I think Gudbranson is the least talented offensively, and Seabrook is a pretty optimistic "likely comparison" for most of those guys.

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01-28-2013, 11:23 AM
  #243
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I think you're significantly overrating his offensive abilities if you think Seabrook/Johnson is "likely." Of all the big, physical, smooth skating, two way dmen who've gone high in the draft recently (Gudbranson, Hamilton, Bogosian and Trouba), I think Gudbranson is the least talented offensively, and Seabrook is a pretty optimistic "likely comparison" for most of those guys.
That's why opinions are great because at this point, none of us have been proven wrong.

Who would you compare him to then?

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01-28-2013, 11:42 AM
  #244
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I think Gudbranson could turn out to be a regular 30-40 pt. guy. He is good at getting his shots on net and he has a cannon of a slapshot. He was definitely drafted 3rd because scouts saw some offensive potential. That potential was also on display at the WJC.

As far as his defensive play, he had an inconsistent season as you would expect from a 19 year old defenseman. He looked like a beast in the middle of the season for a few weeks when he was playing on the top pairing with Campbell. He really ended the season well especially in the playoffs where like someone said he was playing 20 min./night by the end of the NJ series.

The kid is very young yet. I don't know why people are clamoring to put him into a box.

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01-28-2013, 12:48 PM
  #245
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Was Brian Leetch in the same league as Scott Stevens ?
Leetch won the Norris, smythe and Calder. Stevens just won the Smythe. So you could make a reasonabe case he was in a higher legue than Stevens.

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01-28-2013, 12:53 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
Was offensive output even one of the reasons why he was drafted 3rd? I don't recall it being brought up...

Essentially if he plays as a big, physical defenseman with a hard slapper, offensive output is just gravy.
Yes, everyone kept going on about his upside and how he had all the tools, just not the numbers. Much like now, in fact.....

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01-28-2013, 01:08 PM
  #247
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
I think Gudbranson could turn out to be a regular 30-40 pt. guy. He is good at getting his shots on net and he has a cannon of a slapshot. He was definitely drafted 3rd because scouts saw some offensive potential. That potential was also on display at the WJC.

As far as his defensive play, he had an inconsistent season as you would expect from a 19 year old defenseman. He looked like a beast in the middle of the season for a few weeks when he was playing on the top pairing with Campbell. He really ended the season well especially in the playoffs where like someone said he was playing 20 min./night by the end of the NJ series.

The kid is very young yet. I don't know why people are clamoring to put him into a box.
I like this kid a lot, but lets put those 20min/night numbers in context.

The only playoff games he eclipsed 20 minutes were overtime games.

He played as a #5, only topping Jovo and Tyson Strachan in minutes played by d-men those games (Rightfully so as he was only 20).

He played 14-16 minutes a night on avg, the OT games were outliers.

He still isn't anything more than a 3rd pairing defender, and that is fine, I just take exception with throwing out 20 mins/game like its fact.

We heard the same thing about Cody Franson, and he never once topped 20 minutes on the leafs last year, proof that you don't believe everything you read.

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01-28-2013, 05:06 PM
  #248
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Yes, everyone kept going on about his upside and how he had all the tools, just not the numbers. Much like now, in fact.....
Yes, he is 21 years old and played 5th/6th dman minutes on one of the worst offensive teams in the league while seeing no power play time. This is probably what we should expect from him though in the future. Usually big defenseman develop fully at 21 and score 12 goals per season right off the bat while providing Norris caliber defending skills. They usually learn everything they have to learn in juniors if they learn something new in the NHL it is considered an anomaly.


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01-28-2013, 05:28 PM
  #249
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Yes, he is 19 years old and played 5th/6th dman minutes on one of the worst offensive teams in the league while seeing no power play time. This is probably what we should expect from him though in the future. Usually big defenseman develop fully at 19 and score 12 goals per season right off the bat while providing Norris caliber defending skills. They usually learn everything they have to learn in juniors if they learn something new in the NHL it is considered an anomaly.
He's 21

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01-28-2013, 05:35 PM
  #250
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He's 21
I knew that

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