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All Encompassing Tanking/Rebuilding/Selling at Deadline Thread 2.0

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01-22-2013, 01:16 AM
  #276
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post

dont worry though, there's enough people who will blindly follow you, like DAC for example, and a few others who like fantasies like surgical tanks and whatnot.
Honestly man, have I pissed on your rug?

I don't blindly follow Lafleurs or anybody. I arrived at this conclusion independently. I am a proud iconoclast :-)

I began to buy into the rebuilding philosophy following the 2009 season, when I saw the wasted opportunity of having all the UFAs walk for nothing, I thought of all the gold we lost out on. At the time I was not posting on this board.

When I started the surgical tanking thread, I don't think LG posted before the 15th page.

He and I have differences in philosophy. For example we had different views in the lockout thread. Also, he thinks we might be a bubble team this year, whereas I evaluate the Habs roster as a lottery roster.

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01-22-2013, 01:18 AM
  #277
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
Mike Richard was in his mid 20's at the time of the trade. Was part of TC in the Olympics the year before the trade, already posted 80 and 70+ pts seasons...

Plekanec is already 30, got 70 pts ONCE, never won anything at the Olympics (not his fault, Czech team isnt that great)...

love the guy, one of my favorites on the Habs, but no way you get a return close to Mike Richards return.
He is inferior to Richards, but half the return Richards got looks good to me.

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01-22-2013, 01:18 AM
  #278
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Honestly man, have I pissed on your rug?

I don't blindly follow Lafleurs or anybody. I arrived at this conclusion independently. I am a proud iconoclast :-)

I began to buy into the rebuilding philosophy following the 2009 season, when I saw the wasted opportunity of having all the UFAs walk for nothing, I thought of all the gold we lost out on. At the time I was not posting on this board.

When I started the surgical tanking thread, I don't think LG posted before the 15th page.

He and I have differences in philosophy. For example we had different views in the lockout thread. Also, he thinks we might be a bubble team this year, whereas I evaluate the Habs roster as a lottery roster.
both the same, living in a hockey fantasy world.

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01-22-2013, 01:20 AM
  #279
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He is inferior to Richards, but half the return Richards got looks good to me.
so, you'd be ok with a player half as good as Simmonds + a player having half the potential Schenn has ?

really ?


Sorry, rather keep #14 than have two potential 3rd liners.

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01-22-2013, 01:26 AM
  #280
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I think/hope by the end of the season, the impetus for keeping Tomas Plekanec will be there and very solid. His line might become the "first line" - I have high hopes for Gio and Bourque (who I think will play with them, both Gallys will get sent back down). When people talk about PK's intangibles, they seem not to think of Pleky's. He brings so much to the team and has been (as mentioned before re: Czech team, although they have has some success) the victim, much like Koivu of not having a great supporting cast. Him, Kovy and AK ripped it up that year. It's all about chemistry and performance and he performs all the time.

I'm not going to expect him to bulldoze through a wall of players, but the things he does, he does exceptionally well. The thing about DD and Pleks is that if the rest of the team just plays well (I thought DD was horrible on Saturday, but first game so whatever), we don't have these doubts cuz honestly, they aren't the problem. Putting other centers in their positions (I'm trying to think who we could get barring massive larceny by Bergy) won't improve our wins. Getting the rest to show up, that's the key. The more I look at our D, the more I am a little horrified. (And I wasn't worried about it at all...until Saturday.)

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01-22-2013, 01:28 AM
  #281
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Honest question about your (and others') opinion on how that would play out.

Let's say we get a full cupboard by sucking this year. How long before we make the playoffs and with a good team that can contend? I really don't want to become a team full of good prospects who are in the minors while our NHL team becomes the embarrassment of the league. I can't let go of the pride to allow us to continue like this and while I get that long term planning is important, what you said is very true - we only need a retool and quite frankly, just a slightly better D (once PK is back). People want to trade Pleks and Gio. I don't get it. They put up points and do their jobs. Trade them for the future then, right? When is this future going to arrive? 5 years? How is this team going to transition from having vets to no good vets and a team of young guys that don't know what to do? We have a pretty good team if you just coach them properly. We underrate our current team IMO and dismantling even a few pieces could set us back several years. I want to win now or next year. Not saying we're getting the Cup, but I remember doing pretty damn well with Habs lineups having less talent.

It's been one game. I need to mainline some Habs victories to satisfy the void that last season created and I believe it can happen, but we do need PK and soon!
I think the Habs could recover to bubble team status as early as 2013-2014 and to contender status as early as 2014-2015.

The Habs have a good "youth" core of Price, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz, Eller, Pacioretty. That's not good enough to compete, but it's a good start and a great veteran core of the future.

Our prospect includes Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Gallagher, Kristo, Collberg; from that group we'll already have some mild improvement to the roster as early as 2013-2014, and serious improvement by 2014-2015. I don't expect them all to make it, but I listed 8 guys... if 3 or 4 of them make then that is significant. I think that if you add that to our current youth corps, that's enough for a bubble team in 2013-2014, and *possibly* a contender in 2015-2018, that depends on whether or not 3/4 of those guys make it or 6/7. 6 or 7 successes out of 8 is unlikely, hence an outside shot of contenderdom.

Now add:
- Whatever UFA we pick up to replace Cole, Gionta, etc with our cleared cap space; should be a strategic acquisition.
- Our top-5 pick in 2013, say Seth Jones or Elias Lindholm;

Yes, definitely a bubble team in 2013-2014 and a good shot at contenderdom in 2015-2018. Adding Seth Jones means we don't need 6 of the 8 prospects listed above to succeed; we still have that possibility, or we could have 3 of them succeed as well as Seth Jones succeeding, since his ceiling is higher, the end result is better.

The 1st round and 2nd round picks we get for Markov, Gionta, Plekanec, etc are not to form the contender. I think we can have a contender without them... but they will improve the odds. If we draft 23rd overall in 2013 from a trade, that means a good roster player in 2016 in 2017 if we're lucky, which makes our future contender just a little better, like if you added Pacioretty to Los Angeles for example. More specifically, the Kings had Colton Teubert from another team's pick, whom they traded for Dustin Penner, who made them a little better.

The other reason to trade those guys is to open up spots on the roster. There are no rookies on the roster this year, or there will be none after game 5. If you want to have 2 or 3 rookies on the roster, you need to open up spots, we might as well get draft picks rather than let our UFAs walk for nothing. For example, if we lose 3 veterans, we could give two spots to rookies, and 1 spot to a UFA acquisition.

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01-22-2013, 01:31 AM
  #282
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Originally Posted by habtastic View Post
I'm not going to expect him to bulldoze through a wall of players, but the things he does, he does exceptionally well. The thing about DD and Pleks is that if the rest of the team just plays well (I thought DD was horrible on Saturday, but first game so whatever), we don't have these doubts cuz honestly, they aren't the problem. Putting other centers in their positions (I'm trying to think who we could get barring massive larceny by Bergy) won't improve our wins. Getting the rest to show up, that's the key. The more I look at our D, the more I am a little horrified. (And I wasn't worried about it at all...until Saturday.)
Our D is bad. The Leafs entered our zone and get to the slots at ease. We missed some one like Harmlik who is going to nail you when you get too close to Price.

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01-22-2013, 01:45 AM
  #283
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I think the Habs could recover to bubble team status as early as 2013-2014 and to contender status as early as 2014-2015.

The Habs have a good "youth" core of Price, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz, Eller, Pacioretty. That's not good enough to compete, but it's a good start and a great veteran core of the future.

Our prospect includes Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Gallagher, Kristo, Collberg; from that group we'll already have some mild improvement to the roster as early as 2013-2014, and serious improvement by 2014-2015. I don't expect them all to make it, but I listed 8 guys... if 3 or 4 of them make then that is significant. I think that if you add that to our current youth corps, that's enough for a bubble team in 2013-2014, and *possibly* a contender in 2015-2018, that depends on whether or not 3/4 of those guys make it or 6/7. 6 or 7 successes out of 8 is unlikely, hence an outside shot of contenderdom.

Now add:
- Whatever UFA we pick up to replace Cole, Gionta, etc with our cleared cap space; should be a strategic acquisition.
- Our top-5 pick in 2013, say Seth Jones or Elias Lindholm;

Yes, definitely a bubble team in 2013-2014 and a good shot at contenderdom in 2015-2018. Adding Seth Jones means we don't need 6 of the 8 prospects listed above to succeed; we still have that possibility, or we could have 3 of them succeed as well as Seth Jones succeeding, since his ceiling is higher, the end result is better.

The 1st round and 2nd round picks we get for Markov, Gionta, Plekanec, etc are not to form the contender. I think we can have a contender without them... but they will improve the odds. If we draft 23rd overall in 2013 from a trade, that means a good roster player in 2016 in 2017 if we're lucky, which makes our future contender just a little better, like if you added Pacioretty to Los Angeles for example. More specifically, the Kings had Colton Teubert from another team's pick, whom they traded for Dustin Penner, who made them a little better.

The other reason to trade those guys is to open up spots on the roster. There are no rookies on the roster this year, or there will be none after game 5. If you want to have 2 or 3 rookies on the roster, you need to open up spots, we might as well get draft picks rather than let our UFAs walk for nothing.
Your argument is a good one, but I think it's being a little optimistic timeline-wise. This year's draft won't do much towards next season making us a bubble team (which we are right now). Let's just say we get Seth Jones (which we won't - we're not that bad or lucky), won't have an impact for another 2 years since we'll want to be careful (I fully expect Gallys to be sent down). Whoever we get instead of Jones (and again, I doubt it's bottom 5) won't help us for awhile, not before 2015-2016. It'll just be 3 years of suckage IF we put out the same performances. This is where I think we can change things. Just play better. I know it sounds too simple, but aside from the D (which needs to be fixed), we can make the playoffs this year and who knows what happens at the deadline to make us somewhat dangerous (apart from last year, we've had some pretty fun rides). This is without any cost in terms of giving up picks. No more of that. I could accept maybe trading one of our vets for a very good pick, but not more that one.

I think you were also alluding to making us ready by 2016/2017, but suggesting that we'd have success before then. I think '16 sounds about right. I'm being a little "emotional" here or perhaps passionate, but I don't think we can or have to wait that long. We keep talking about Tinordi and Beaulieu. If they were as developed as PK (who's development has been pretty quick when we take a big step back after the usual story being him having to learn to be an NHL player...a story that is playing out quite well ATM), we would be set! That's how close IMO we are to being contenders IF everyone plays to their potential. That's what I get annoyed at - losing even though we're better than that.

Trading Cole, Gionta, whoever, I can see maybe next year if things continue to go badly, but I feel like trading away what works sets us back too far to have an actual passing of a torch, however dimly it burns currently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JustAHabFan View Post
Our D is bad. The Leafs entered our zone and get to the slots at ease. We missed some one like Harmlik who is going to nail you when you get too close to Price.
Yup. Therrien is the reason we signed Cube. He better take responsibility for that. Is it me or did it seem like Emelin was struggling with the cage? Is it permanent? I know he's got a plate in his face, but is whatever injury he currently have in a healing process? Gorges will be better, not worried there. Diaz has lots to prove and he can do it, but it really is a crap shoot with him.

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01-22-2013, 01:58 AM
  #284
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01-22-2013, 02:33 AM
  #285
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I think the Habs could recover to bubble team status as early as 2013-2014 and to contender status as early as 2014-2015.

The Habs have a good "youth" core of Price, Gorges, Emelin, Diaz, Eller, Pacioretty. That's not good enough to compete, but it's a good start and a great veteran core of the future.

Our prospect includes Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Gallagher, Kristo, Collberg; from that group we'll already have some mild improvement to the roster as early as 2013-2014, and serious improvement by 2014-2015. I don't expect them all to make it, but I listed 8 guys... if 3 or 4 of them make then that is significant. I think that if you add that to our current youth corps, that's enough for a bubble team in 2013-2014, and *possibly* a contender in 2015-2018, that depends on whether or not 3/4 of those guys make it or 6/7. 6 or 7 successes out of 8 is unlikely, hence an outside shot of contenderdom.

Now add:
- Whatever UFA we pick up to replace Cole, Gionta, etc with our cleared cap space; should be a strategic acquisition.
- Our top-5 pick in 2013, say Seth Jones or Elias Lindholm;

Yes, definitely a bubble team in 2013-2014 and a good shot at contenderdom in 2015-2018. Adding Seth Jones means we don't need 6 of the 8 prospects listed above to succeed; we still have that possibility, or we could have 3 of them succeed as well as Seth Jones succeeding, since his ceiling is higher, the end result is better.

The 1st round and 2nd round picks we get for Markov, Gionta, Plekanec, etc are not to form the contender. I think we can have a contender without them... but they will improve the odds. If we draft 23rd overall in 2013 from a trade, that means a good roster player in 2016 in 2017 if we're lucky, which makes our future contender just a little better, like if you added Pacioretty to Los Angeles for example. More specifically, the Kings had Colton Teubert from another team's pick, whom they traded for Dustin Penner, who made them a little better.

The other reason to trade those guys is to open up spots on the roster. There are no rookies on the roster this year, or there will be none after game 5. If you want to have 2 or 3 rookies on the roster, you need to open up spots, we might as well get draft picks rather than let our UFAs walk for nothing. For example, if we lose 3 veterans, we could give two spots to rookies, and 1 spot to a UFA acquisition.


none of the players you've listed will be ready for top 4 D duty, and aside from MAYBE Galchenyuk, none will be ready for top 6 F...

but we'll go from lottery pick to bubble team ?? really ??


that's why it's called fantasy

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01-22-2013, 02:42 AM
  #286
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My point with my post which seems to have elicted that we would be nuts to trade our vetrans, my point is, is this team a Stanley Cup contender. Be very honest with yourself and look over the roster right now. A playoff team is one thing, but a Stanley Cup contender is completely different. Do we have the offense and defense pieces to make a run at the Stanley Cup. I have serious questions about that.

If your a hardcore fanatic fan, you will always side with the opinion that if we make the playoffs, then any team can win the Stanley Cup. Well... We have been making the playoffs with the exception of last year and for what 20 years now we failed to win the big prize. Its been way too long since Montreal won the Stanley Cup.

So my question is, is this roster good enough to be a contender. I simply don't think so, Gainey and Gauthier committed several blunders in signed certain players to long term contracts and now look what is happenning. Most of those players are being slowly moved. Cammalleri, Gomez, the rebuild is already happenning. There is a new direction that Marc Bergevin is heading, where and who he brings to Montreal will be an intresting to see.

I expect this roster to continue to change after this season, we may even be watching the start of a rebuilding process. Only time will tell if this is whats going to happen.

But to go back to my previous post, I'm just offering a way for Montreal to actually become a Stanley Cup contender and not go through the hard road that a full rebuild would entail because right now, its very hard for me to say that Montreal can make a deep push for the Cup with this roster.

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01-22-2013, 03:15 AM
  #287
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Originally Posted by Forgedias View Post
My point with my post which seems to have elicted that we would be nuts to trade our vetrans, my point is, is this team a Stanley Cup contender. Be very honest with yourself and look over the roster right now. A playoff team is one thing, but a Stanley Cup contender is completely different. Do we have the offense and defense pieces to make a run at the Stanley Cup. I have serious questions about that.

If your a hardcore fanatic fan, you will always side with the opinion that if we make the playoffs, then any team can win the Stanley Cup. Well... We have been making the playoffs with the exception of last year and for what 20 years now we failed to win the big prize. Its been way too long since Montreal won the Stanley Cup.

So my question is, is this roster good enough to be a contender. I simply don't think so, Gainey and Gauthier committed several blunders in signed certain players to long term contracts and now look what is happenning. Most of those players are being slowly moved. Cammalleri, Gomez, the rebuild is already happenning. There is a new direction that Marc Bergevin is heading, where and who he brings to Montreal will be an intresting to see.

I expect this roster to continue to change after this season, we may even be watching the start of a rebuilding process. Only time will tell if this is whats going to happen.

But to go back to my previous post, I'm just offering a way for Montreal to actually become a Stanley Cup contender and not go through the hard road that a full rebuild would entail because right now, its very hard for me to say that Montreal can make a deep push for the Cup with this roster.
we dont need to START a rebuild when one is already underway...

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01-22-2013, 03:48 AM
  #288
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
none of the players you've listed will be ready for top 4 D duty, and aside from MAYBE Galchenyuk, none will be ready for top 6 F...

but we'll go from lottery pick to bubble team ?? really ??


that's why it's called fantasy
Let's debate this,

I listed Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Gallagher, Kristo, Collberg; as our top 8 prospects,

So out of the 3 dmen, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, all of whom are doing well in the AHL, all of whom will train in the offseason, let us assume that they are all longshots to make the Habs next year, in other words let us assume that each of them has a 33% chance of making the Habs next year. Ergo, what are the odds that at least one of them will be good enough to make the Habs?

69% :-) That's pretty high isn't it? If you are even more skeptical, and assume that each of them only has a 21% chance of making it next year, then we still have a 50% chance of at least one of them making it, and that's all we need.

So, for next year:

Subban-Gorges
Diaz-Emelin
Tinordi-UFA
This assumes that:
- We don't draft Seth Jones
- Bergevin doesn't screw up the Subban situation
- All three of Markov, Kaberle, and Bouillon are gone

Now, I have to admit: that defensive lineup is actually quite bad. However, it's much better if you add Jones, and there's no reason not to get a good UFA rather than a crappy one: if we clear Markov, Kaberle, and Bouillon then that's 11.5 million in cap space.

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01-22-2013, 03:58 AM
  #289
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Your argument is a good one, but I think it's being a little optimistic timeline-wise. This year's draft won't do much towards next season making us a bubble team (which we are right now). Let's just say we get Seth Jones (which we won't - we're not that bad or lucky), won't have an impact for another 2 years since we'll want to be careful (I fully expect Gallys to be sent down). Whoever we get instead of Jones (and again, I doubt it's bottom 5) won't help us for awhile, not before 2015-2016. It'll just be 3 years of suckage IF we put out the same performances. This is where I think we can change things. Just play better. I know it sounds too simple, but aside from the D (which needs to be fixed), we can make the playoffs this year and who knows what happens at the deadline to make us somewhat dangerous (apart from last year, we've had some pretty fun rides). This is without any cost in terms of giving up picks. No more of that. I could accept maybe trading one of our vets for a very good pick, but not more that one.

I think you were also alluding to making us ready by 2016/2017, but suggesting that we'd have success before then. I think '16 sounds about right. I'm being a little "emotional" here or perhaps passionate, but I don't think we can or have to wait that long. We keep talking about Tinordi and Beaulieu. If they were as developed as PK (who's development has been pretty quick when we take a big step back after the usual story being him having to learn to be an NHL player...a story that is playing out quite well ATM), we would be set! That's how close IMO we are to being contenders IF everyone plays to their potential. That's what I get annoyed at - losing even though we're better than that.

Trading Cole, Gionta, whoever, I can see maybe next year if things continue to go badly, but I feel like trading away what works sets us back too far to have an actual passing of a torch, however dimly it burns currently.
I agree with you that prospects will take a while to develop, though I don't see why Jones or Drouin wouldn't provide secondary support as soon as 2013-2014.

Whether or not we're a bubble team in 2013-2014 depends on how we move in the 2013 UFA market. If we ship off 4 veterans, replace them with 2 UFAs and 2 rookies, then we could be making a step forward.

2013 UFAs, according to capgeek:
- Alexander Semin
- Patrik Elias
- Lubomir Visnovsky (not sure that's correct since he's skipping the season)
- Corey Perry
- Ryan Getzlaf
- Jaromir Jagr
- Ron Hainsey
- Brenden Morrow
- Pierre-Marc Bouchard
- Nik Antropov
- Robyn Regher
- Ryan Whitney
- Nathan Horton
- Ryan Clowe
- Roman Hamrlik
- Simon Gagner
- Rob Scuderi
- Valtteri Filpulla

Some of these guys are less interesting than others. Some of these guys will be resigned. Some of these guys will want long-term deals. Either way, whichever way you slice it, this is likely to be a decent UFA crop. If we ship Gionta off to a contender, there is simply no reason why we shouldn't be able to replace him.

Here's the full list if you want to form your own opinions:
http://capgeek.com/free-agents/?year...1&fa_type_id=2

The 2013 draft is a rich draft, every smart GM will want to stockpile picks.
The 2013 UFA class is rich, every smart GM will want to stockpile cap space.

Why should we be able to compete? Because we're in the unique position that we don't give a damn about 2013 playoffs, since we're not making it. Contenders want to buy, and bubble teams want to stay fix, so it will be the same situation as every year: 5-10 wants to be sellers, and 5-10 teams want to be buyers.

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01-22-2013, 04:01 AM
  #290
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Let's debate this,

I listed Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Leblanc, Gallagher, Kristo, Collberg; as our top 8 prospects,

So out of the 3 dmen, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, all of whom are doing well in the AHL, all of whom will train in the offseason, let us assume that they are all longshots to make the Habs next year, in other words let us assume that each of them has a 33% chance of making the Habs next year. Ergo, what are the odds that at least one of them will be good enough to make the Habs?

69% :-) That's pretty high isn't it? If you are even more skeptical, and assume that each of them only has a 21% chance of making it next year, then we still have a 50% chance of at least one of them making it, and that's all we need.

So, for next year:

Subban-Gorges
Diaz-Emelin
Tinordi-UFA

This assumes that:
- We don't draft Seth Jones
- Bergevin doesn't screw up the Subban situation
- All three of Markov, Kaberle, and Bouillon are gone

Now, I have to admit: that defensive lineup is actually quite bad. However, it's much better if you add Jones, and there's no reason not to get a good UFA rather than a crappy one: if we clear Markov, Kaberle, and Bouillon then that's 11.5 million in cap space.
how does Tinordi at #6 makes us go from lottery team to Bubble team ?

and just so you know, for all of Markov, Bouillon and Kaberle to be gone, you have to trade two - one having a NTC.

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01-22-2013, 04:04 AM
  #291
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
how does Tinordi at #6 makes us go from lottery team to Bubble team ?

and just so you know, for all of Markov, Bouillon and Kaberle to be gone, you have to trade two - one having a NTC.
I'm not watching the AHL games in detail. but based on reports from people watching closely, Tinordi could be an effective third pairing guy next year.

***********************

If Markov refuses to waive his NTC, then we keep him and move forward.

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01-22-2013, 04:07 AM
  #292
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ECWHSWI,

If someone had told you that we'd lose Komisarek, Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay, Dandeneault, Schneider, etc for nothing in 2009 would you have predicted the playoffs in 2010?

No, because most of us don't realize that the UFA market is a deep well.

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01-22-2013, 04:08 AM
  #293
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I'm not watching the AHL games in detail. but based on reports from people watching closely, Tinordi could be an effective third pairing guy next year.

***********************

If Markov refuses to waive his NTC, then we keep him and move forward.
if anything, it's not the AHL you should watch, it's the NHL...

aside from a very few D who are good enough to make the jump straight from JR to NHL, the others usually spend a few years in the AHL, and then once in the NHL they slowly "climb" to #4 or #2 (or whatever potential they have).

I told you already, pure fantasy... drop the calc for once and watch some games.

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01-22-2013, 04:10 AM
  #294
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
ECWHSWI,

If someone had told you that we'd lose Komisarek, Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay, Dandeneault, Schneider, etc for nothing in 2009 would you have predicted the playoffs in 2010?

No, because most of us don't realize that the UFA market is a deep well.
we were already a bubble team, we swicthed players and remained a bubble team..

but this time we're a 15th place team, and you expect us to go from 15th to 8th by replacing Markov/Kaberle with a rookie D...

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01-22-2013, 04:15 AM
  #295
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
we were already a bubble team, we swicthed players and remained a bubble team..

but this time we're a 15th place team, and you expect us to go from 15th to 8th by replacing Markov/Kaberle with a rookie D...
You're convincing me that the Habs might need 2 transition years after this year and that a single transition year was very optimistic on my part.

For a single transition year to be the outcome a lot of things would have to go right, that could happen but I'm usually the first guy to point out that one should not depend on several things going right.

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01-22-2013, 04:21 AM
  #296
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You're convincing me that the Habs might need 2 transition years after this year and that a single transition year was very optimistic on my part.

For a single transition year to be the outcome a lot of things would have to go right, that could happen but I'm usually the first guy to point out that one should not depend on several things going right.
should have been obvious.

Rookies making the NHL does not mean they will produce at the same rate of the players they're replacing right off the bat, rookie D who make it at 19/20 and have an immediate impact (like in our case, being Markov replacement) are of the Doughty, Pietrangelo, Hamilton type, The others slowly stars and become solid at 25+, same for forwards, unless they have star potential they will start slowly... sometimes you'll get lucky and have a rookie with 3rd line potential come off the gate and get lots of point, but luck isnt a plan...

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01-22-2013, 06:46 AM
  #297
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One year at a time:

2013
Petteri Nokelainen - probably re-signed short time
Frédérick St. Denis - should be re-signed for depth in Hamilton
Colby Armstrong (30) - depends on performance this year, re-sign 1 year?
Francis Bouillon (37) - not re-signed, battle for #6 spot

This is where it gets interesting. Do you try to trade Gionta, Markov, or Kaberle this summer or play out thier contracts?

2014
David Desharnais - re-signed
Mike Blunden - meh
Alexei Yemelin (28) - defininite re-sign
Rafael Diaz (28) - definite re-sign
Brian Gionta (35) - not re-signed
Andrei Markov (35) - re-sign 1 year deal
Tomas Kaberle(36)
- not re-signed

Not classy to trade your captain but it needs must and you know who will replace him...
Possibility to buyout Kaberle this summer, no trading partners found
Markov has addition value as mentor to young defensemen - my vote to re-sign.


Last edited by baldrick: 01-22-2013 at 07:01 AM.
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01-22-2013, 07:24 AM
  #298
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All this latest talk underlines why winning is so difficult. At some level, it is going to come down to "luck". Half of the good prospects we know and love today are not going to be NHL contributors for us. Scratch half of our top-10 off the list, say. We can't know which ones. So much depends on just how good the other half that do make it become. We also can't know that. There's a reasonable chance that none of them provides us what we are really hoping for. Then there are progressions from our current young players, what if they stall.

And the other key is going to be how we spend money in the summer of 2014 and beyond on new UFAs to replace the bigger $$ contracts we have expiring. As we've already seen with the Gainey retool, the veterans you bring in on those bigger $$$ can make all the difference. A lot of people were pretty optimistic with some of the early returns from that crew, only to see it all crumble into dust.

You have to try to stack the deck as much as possible, draft good prospects, develop them well, make good trades, sign good UFAs, manage the cap well, etc, etc, etc. But even with a smart GM and his best efforts, it can go awry. Should never focus too much on one element of team building (e.g. high draft pick). Just do the best you can in all the areas at every step along the way. And cross your fingers.

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01-22-2013, 07:53 AM
  #299
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I think/hope by the end of the season, the impetus for keeping Tomas Plekanec will be there and very solid. His line might become the "first line" - I have high hopes for Gio and Bourque (who I think will play with them, both Gallys will get sent back down). When people talk about PK's intangibles, they seem not to think of Pleky's. He brings so much to the team and has been (as mentioned before re: Czech team, although they have has some success) the victim, much like Koivu of not having a great supporting cast. Him, Kovy and AK ripped it up that year. It's all about chemistry and performance and he performs all the time.

I'm not going to expect him to bulldoze through a wall of players, but the things he does, he does exceptionally well. The thing about DD and Pleks is that if the rest of the team just plays well (I thought DD was horrible on Saturday, but first game so whatever), we don't have these doubts cuz honestly, they aren't the problem. Putting other centers in their positions (I'm trying to think who we could get barring massive larceny by Bergy) won't improve our wins. Getting the rest to show up, that's the key. The more I look at our D, the more I am a little horrified. (And I wasn't worried about it at all...until Saturday.)
Plecs is a good player. That's why his trade value is high.

As for Saturday, it really reminded me of last year. We could easily be 15th even with Subban coming back.
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
All this latest talk underlines why winning is so difficult. At some level, it is going to come down to "luck". Half of the good prospects we know and love today are not going to be NHL contributors for us. Scratch half of our top-10 off the list, say. We can't know which ones. So much depends on just how good the other half that do make it become. We also can't know that. There's a reasonable chance that none of them provides us what we are really hoping for. Then there are progressions from our current young players, what if they stall.
You're right about our prospects, half won't produce the way we want.

I wouldn't call that 'luck' though, it's the law of averages and to be expected. We should plan for this. And that's part of the reason why I'm suggesting we stack the deck now with as many prospects as we can to go along with what we already have.
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And the other key is going to be how we spend money in the summer of 2014 and beyond on new UFAs to replace the bigger $$ contracts we have expiring. As we've already seen with the Gainey retool, the veterans you bring in on those bigger $$$ can make all the difference. A lot of people were pretty optimistic with some of the early returns from that crew, only to see it all crumble into dust.
Unless the club is competitive by then, I'd much rather see us just play our youngsters. There's time to add FAs but 2014 might not be the time to do it. We can always add some depth though. Guess we'll have to see how we're playing but the FA option is always there.
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
You have to try to stack the deck as much as possible, draft good prospects, develop them well, make good trades, sign good UFAs, manage the cap well, etc, etc, etc. But even with a smart GM and his best efforts, it can go awry. Should never focus too much on one element of team building (e.g. high draft pick). Just do the best you can in all the areas at every step along the way. And cross your fingers.
The more 1st rounders you have, the better your odds. If we were to land 2 or 3 extra first rounders or prospects, at least SOME of those will develop into good players. As for our own pick (likely a high one) that will help too.
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You're convincing me that the Habs might need 2 transition years after this year and that a single transition year was very optimistic on my part.

For a single transition year to be the outcome a lot of things would have to go right, that could happen but I'm usually the first guy to point out that one should not depend on several things going right.
The transition could easily be more than a year. But I don't think dealing those vets is going to change this. We're into an unintentional rebuild cycle now anyway. If it takes three years, all the more reason to deal those vets now rather than wasting them.


Last edited by Lafleurs Guy: 01-22-2013 at 08:06 AM.
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01-22-2013, 08:06 AM
  #300
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It doesn't matter what you get out of trading a veteran. Why does everyone think solely in trades? If you trade Plekanec, let's say, how do you know what you get in return will be anywhere NEAR as efficient as he could be now and in the next 5 years? Of course trading him NOW will get us a better return than LATER, but that return most probably won't bring us anything near as good as what he currently brings us now. Do you see my logic here? Just simply trading vets for the sake of trading them is never going to work, and never has worked.

Actually, we want veterans to help support the youth and help develop them. We need players that have experience in the NHL, in the playoffs it is even more important. Imagine what it would look like if we traded Gionta and Cole for the sake of trading them, got some young decent players or maybe a second rounder or two out of them. That won't benefit the team now, and only has a small chance of doing anything near as useful in the future as what they would've done on the team. As you can see, it all depends on WHO you want to trade, and for WHAT.

As everyone said, we all agree on trades that are good for the team, but we most likely won't get anything as useful in the future by trading our veterans now as these veterans probably would've done by keeping them on the squad. So what's the point? Well, it all depends on the return. Keep in mind, you're not getting many number one picks for most of our veterans, and they are much more useful on this team than what a 2nd-3rd round pick will ever get us, most probably.
I should've clarified: I don't want a wholesale dumping of every veteran. As you said, we need a veteran presence for the younger guys and because players in their mid-30s aren't exactly doddering cripples. I love Plekanec and Gionta, and Pleks will only be 33 in my imaginary 2016 scenario. So yeah, I'd resist trading Plekanec for his mentoring, but mostly because a 33-year-old Plekanec will still be very valuable to our team on the ice.

As for the central question of WHO for WHAT, it all depends on the WHAT. As in WHAT is available from WHERE. Teams whose windows are NOW will value our quality vets because they're thisclose to a possible Cup run. We could get a draft pick. We could get a young roster player. Of course there are no guarantees -- this is a given -- but the point is to stack the deck in our favour as much as possible, knowing that some players won't pan out, but a few others just might.

In all this speculation there are two absolute guarantees: 1) Dealing some (not all) of our vets frees up a ton of cash. And 2) These same vets will NOT be key parts of our future 2016 team. We'll have money to spend and players coming this way. Then we can decide whether those players should be draft picks or UFAs, depending who's out there.

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